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FriedrichVonHayek

Silver Premium Member
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    United Kingdom

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  1. Like
    FriedrichVonHayek got a reaction from gji25 in Mappin&Webb Sterling Silver Sauce Boat 215grams £130 freepost   
    Mappin&Webb Sterling Silver Sauce Boat 215grams £130 freepost.
    In decent condition could do with a good clean.
    It seems a shame to end up in the melting pot.
    Bank transfer or PayPal F&F.

  2. Like
    FriedrichVonHayek reacted to AR03 in Ebay buyer started bank dispute after receiving two gold coins   
    Just received an update... The dispute was found in my favour because I have provided all the required information... So glad with the outcome... Wanted to leave a feedback on the buyer's account but it says "Now the seller is inactive", guess ebay has closed their account. 
  3. Like
    FriedrichVonHayek reacted to sixgun in Silver Monitoring Thread £ (GBP) only.   
    Most of the silver coming to market is a byproduct of other metal production - mainly copper and zinc. Silver is an added bonus to the profit line in their production. If these metals are produced then there will be silver. The AISC of the pure silver mining plays isn't that important b/c if copper and zinc are mined and refined there will be silver. If all the silver mines closed, the average AISC would drop very low - not to zero but not $18. During the electrolytic copper refining process, sludge drops to the bottom of the refining tanks - this contains silver and some other precious metals. It is there for further processing without any mining required.
    The main cost in mining is energy. Mining is very heavy on energy. Digging millions of tonnes of rock out of the ground, crushing and processing it needs a lot of energy. So the cost of all metals including silver is directly linked to the oil price. 
    There are some who claim we have passed peak oil and the oil price in the next few years will start climbing which would innevitably feed into metals prices. i remember hearing about peak oil 20 years ago and it never happened. The idea of peak oil is that oil is a fossil fuel - the product of decomposed vegetation cooked inside the Earth. Then once an oil field runs dry that's it - it's all gone. This is a faulty theory when you consider oil has been drilled for over 12km down by both the Russians and Qataris. Plant matter was never growing that far down. Oil and gas are produced inside the Earth in a chemical reaction - as far as we are concerned there is unlimited oil and gas. Oil fields can 'run dry' but given time they fill up again. This happens but of course Big Oil isn't about to broadcast ideas like oil is the second most plentiful liquid on the planet isn't good for business.
  4. Like
    FriedrichVonHayek reacted to stefffana in Sterling by Webster   
    I wouldn't pay more than spot, eventually maximum +5%, sorry, but this in only my humble opinion.
    I have hundreds of silver spoons, all types, sizes, styles and purities, mostly bought under spot.
     
     
  5. Like
    FriedrichVonHayek reacted to HonestMoneyGoldSilver in Silver Monitoring Thread £ (GBP) only.   
    Super complex question but the TL:DR figure according to my research based on AISC (All-in Sustainability Cost) is $18 and rising. Many major PM and base metal producers are in countries with high inflation - e.g. Mexico, Turkey, Peru, Russia, etc. Then other major producers like Canada, USA, Australia, Poland also have inflationary pressures. Some major mining corps would become unprofitable at $20, e.g. Endeavour Silver Corp. Others would remain profitable until $15-16. If you're asking when all mines would become unprofitable it's probably around $13 but there's only a handful in the world, mostly in 3rd-world countries like Burkina Faso, that can sustain that price. Those operations are part of larger global concerns so even if some mines may be profitable at $13, the combined AISC across all operations would make the conglomerate unprofitable. There is no such thing as "can't go below this price" as silver is a necessary commodity and could be subsidized by the state such as with energy in recent years or the financial system in 2008.
    Another source of complexity is that silver-only mines account for 17-25% of total production - the other 75-83% comes from multi-faceted gold and base metal operations
    https://www.thesilverforum.com/topic/368-silver-monitoring-thread-£-gbp-only/?do=findComment&comment=848171
    This leads me to believe the current average AISC for the major silver mines is $18 and that this floor is currently rising. (Silver and gold usually occur together in the same deposits although it's possible to find them individually. Arguably silver is a "by-product" of many mining operations focussed on gold and base metals such as copper, zinc, lead, etc, and sometimes vice-versa, base metals are a by-product of PM mining). Here is a brief summary of the AISC figures and YoY changes I'm talking about:
    Pan American Silver Corp (PAAS, Canada, Latin America) - $17.97/oz (+ 10% YoY) SSR Mining Corp (SSRM, Turkey) - $15.91/oz (+29% YoY) Hecla Mining Company (HL, United States) - $14.20/oz (+11% YoY) Fortuna Silver Mines Inc (FVI, Canada, Latin America, Burkina Faso) - $14.46/oz (-8.8% YoY) Endeavour Silver Corp (EXK, Mexico) - $20.27/oz (+16% YoY) Average AISC for those companies (Q3 2022) is $16.56. It seems obvious that as AISC goes up (which is the way it's definitely trending with inflation, energy, labour, finance, ESG, etc) or down, that this would correlate strongly with the spot price of these metals, although this relationship is perhaps not as robust as one might expect. Regardless, if the spot price goes below the AISC, the mines will reduce or stop production as you can't run a business indefinitely that is unsustainable/unprofitable. It is my hypothesis that the absolute bottom of the market for silver was/is $18/oz and that it's unlikely to remain below $20/oz never mind $18.
    The Pearson's r coefficient between silver and gold ranges between 0.7-0.9 depending on observation period, which is strong to very strong - broadly speaking their price action is mirrored. The coefficients (which vary depending on observation period) between gold, silver and base metals are also positively correlated although in the moderate to strong range as opposed to very strong. For reference the coefficient between BTC and ETH is around 0.89 depending on observation period. We observe that virtually every time BTC or ETH go up or down, the other (and the entire market in the case of BTC) will follow this price action. The relationships between precious metals and base metals are well understood. A massive drop in silver would in all probability coincide with a large drop in gold and also a significant drop in base metals prices, which may affect the AISC (All-in Sustainability Cost) dramatically
     
     
  6. Like
    FriedrichVonHayek got a reaction from UncommonSeal in 100 Balboas £380 Freepost 8.16 grams of .900 Gold   
    100 Balboas £380 Freepost 8.16 grams of .900 Gold.
    Bank Transfer or PayPal F&F.

  7. Like
    FriedrichVonHayek got a reaction from Zhorro in London Mint Office Proof Set £585 Freepost Withdrawn at 1pm today.   
    London Mint Office Proofs,The Gold Trade Wars Set comes with the box and paperwork.
    £599 Freepost, Bank Transfer or PayPal F&F.

     
  8. Haha
    FriedrichVonHayek reacted to Bigmarc in Got a delivery today   
    David Cameron in drag.
  9. Thanks
    FriedrichVonHayek reacted to Solachesis in 100 Balboas £380 Freepost 8.16 grams of .900 Gold   
    Spot + post, nice.
  10. Like
    FriedrichVonHayek got a reaction from KRO in Battle of the Atlantic Proof Half Sovereign £205 Freepost   
    Battle of the Atlantic Half Sovereign £205 Freepost.
    Bank Transfer or PayPal F&F.

  11. Haha
    FriedrichVonHayek reacted to Upsidedown in Gold, Silver - 2013 indian sovereign, proof 1911 half crown and florin, 1898 5 rubles   
    I don't like getting rimmed either tbh also not my vibe
  12. Like
    FriedrichVonHayek got a reaction from GreatCoins4U in London Mint Office Trade Wars Gold Proof Set for sale £625 Freepost will swap for 2kg Pre 1947   
    London Mint Office Trade Wars Gold Proof Set with Box and Paperwork.
    Will swap for 2kg of Pre 1947 Silver
     £625 Freepost Bank Transfer or PayPal F&F

  13. Like
    FriedrichVonHayek got a reaction from Stuh in 100 Balboas £380 Freepost 8.16 grams of .900 Gold   
    100 Balboas £380 Freepost 8.16 grams of .900 Gold.
    Bank Transfer or PayPal F&F.

  14. Like
    FriedrichVonHayek got a reaction from AL84 in 100 Balboas £380 Freepost 8.16 grams of .900 Gold   
    100 Balboas £380 Freepost 8.16 grams of .900 Gold.
    Bank Transfer or PayPal F&F.

  15. Like
    FriedrichVonHayek got a reaction from Tjhooker in 100 Balboas £380 Freepost 8.16 grams of .900 Gold   
    100 Balboas £380 Freepost 8.16 grams of .900 Gold.
    Bank Transfer or PayPal F&F.

  16. Like
    FriedrichVonHayek got a reaction from Domo in 9x 1oz Silver 2023 Sierra Leone Isis £250 freepost   
    9x 1oz .999 Silver2023 Sierra Leone Isis £250 freepost from the Pobjoy Mint.
    The coins are supplied with a pouch from the Pobjoy Mint.
    Bank transfer or PayPal F&F.

    Bank transfer or PayPal F&F.
     
  17. Like
    FriedrichVonHayek got a reaction from KRO in 9x 1oz Silver 2023 Sierra Leone Isis £250 freepost   
    9x 1oz .999 Silver2023 Sierra Leone Isis £250 freepost from the Pobjoy Mint.
    The coins are supplied with a pouch from the Pobjoy Mint.
    Bank transfer or PayPal F&F.

    Bank transfer or PayPal F&F.
     
  18. Like
    FriedrichVonHayek got a reaction from gji25 in 9x 1oz Silver 2023 Sierra Leone Isis £250 freepost   
    9x 1oz .999 Silver2023 Sierra Leone Isis £250 freepost from the Pobjoy Mint.
    The coins are supplied with a pouch from the Pobjoy Mint.
    Bank transfer or PayPal F&F.

    Bank transfer or PayPal F&F.
     
  19. Thanks
    FriedrichVonHayek reacted to asemp in Wanted Pre 1947 Scrap Silver Coins in reasonable condition no holed coins or soldered   
    Hello, I might have a few if you're interested 
    I have  one / two shillings ,six/ three  pence, 
    All 1921 - 1947
    I'll have to weigh them and let you know the total 
  20. Haha
    FriedrichVonHayek reacted to theman73 in 1 Monster box of Britannia KC 2023 sealed   
    Sold
     
     

  21. Like
    FriedrichVonHayek reacted to theman73 in 1 Monster box of Britannia KC 2023 sealed   
    The price is £12500 not £12000
  22. Like
    FriedrichVonHayek reacted to theman73 in 1 Monster box of Britannia KC 2023 sealed   
    Now put the opposite:
    Someone wants to buy 20 tubes but the offer on the forum is 2 tubes today maybe 3 tubes after 3 days and so on, now calculate how much will be the shipping to collect 20 tubes plus the waiting time.
    This offer is not for people who buy a single or 1 tube.
  23. Like
    FriedrichVonHayek reacted to theman73 in 1 Monster box of Britannia KC 2023 sealed   
    Who has for sale 20 tubes of KCIII at £25/coin? No one has.
    So, this offer is a rare opportunity. Right?
    There are a few people here who buy in big quantities, not the first time when I sold a monster box here (behind, big players don't like publicity)
    Anyway, I will open it after I finish the last one.
  24. Like
    FriedrichVonHayek got a reaction from KRO in London Mint Office Trade Wars Gold Proof Set for sale £625 Freepost will swap for 2kg Pre 1947   
    London Mint Office Trade Wars Gold Proof Set with Box and Paperwork.
    Will swap for 2kg of Pre 1947 Silver
     £625 Freepost Bank Transfer or PayPal F&F

  25. Like
    FriedrichVonHayek got a reaction from HonestMoneyGoldSilver in Battle of the Atlantic Proof Half Sovereign £205 Freepost   
    Battle of the Atlantic Half Sovereign £205 Freepost.
    Bank Transfer or PayPal F&F.

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