silversky

My money is on 2nd quarter!! 
Why you ask?? Because that's when all my bank loans are due 🤣

That's a nice idea but better be quick, the price of new cars is rising too!    Price of scrap cars is right up again as well.  You can get £350 for an old banger, and that's with them picking it up!

My friend has a sub to Maguire and he tells me that this is what he said this evening "There is little doubt that even in the face of bullish or bearish crosses, the refiner production constraints we have reported last Monday, are beginning to filter through  in both Gold and especially Silver are forcing COT’s to buy to cover EFP delivery demand."

Well real or not the COVID madness is still underway on the Continent and it has resulted in the refineries being short staffed and cutting back on production. This compounds the factors you rightly mention.  

Although it appears the White metals are doing the heavy lifting and dragging Gold behind.. Inflation only would be gold first..?  
I love a conspiracy theory.. maybe some paper vault holders went down to see their stash and it wasn't 'actually' there 

Without turning it into a COVID debate, perception is reality and if the perception is changing from transitory inflation to actually this is serious, then that does explain a lot.

The market knows that the covid narrative is finished.  With inflation persistent, rather than "transitory", real things are demanding more paper.  I expect last years high to be beaten this quarter.

im not ignoring silver - i have a heavy position in silver, i'm still waiting for to go to the moon for the reasons i was told in 2007/2008
the same reasons & arguments for it have not changed since i started stacking 
my question is just WHY ? isn't it where it should have been 20+ years ago 
If nothing has changed in 20 years, who's to say, it is not going to be exactly the same for another twenty years 
To invest 40 years of time/money into something that break evens - a wise investment ? 
We still had mobiles, laptops, PCs, solar panels, cameras in 2000s that needed silver 
It always seems to be wait, it is just round the corner before the silver rocket    🚀  🚀🚀blasts off to the moon !   my bloody silver rocket will have got a wheel clamp and parking ticket knowing my luck  

The government of the day always tries to prop up the housing market.  And they always fail.  It doesn't matter if it's left or right politically, they're both committed to private property rights and the ability of banks to create credit.  Therefore, an exuberance always grows followed by a crash.
Between 2007 and 2011, in real terms, houses lost 25% of their value.  That 25% is the portion that most people typically own, with the rest being owned by a bank. 
The theory goes that there's a roughly 18 year cycle peak to peak (min max 17-21) which follows through in most developed western nations.  This means that a new peak should be achieved somewhere around 2024-2028, followed by approximately 4 years of correcting and losses.
This is the reason for my note to self about being out by 2024.  I'd rather miss out on the last couple of years of frenzied rises (and not be susceptible to believing that this time it's different) than be sitting on a 25% loss four years later.  It's always best to leave a bit for the next guy rather than trying to time a top too closely.
The demographics issue will really add fuel to this cycles' downturn.  That's the reason why I think that the crash will be bigger than 2007-2011 or the previous one in the 90's (I remember interest running about 15%).  Next time, there will be a huge oversupply, as grand old properties which have been locked out of the market for the last half century start to flood the market.
Personally I think gold and silver are going to do well.  But property is now in the second half of it's cycle and I think it will therefore outperform gold and silver over the next couple of years.  Who knows, I could be hideously wrong. 

remember folks - just like in 2011 when we raced up to £30oz - sentiment was - no need to sell , as the silver train was gonna race straight to £50oz in the next station
The peak price was only there for less than a month to take advantage of, it had drop -£10oz like a hot rock very soon after in matter of a few months 
back track the silver graph of 1980 high from the Hunt Brothers cornering things, the peak was again only there for a very small window of time to take advantage of the peak price.  it was never there for a sustained period of time, all them commentators and pudits seem to always fail to mention
when normally rational people, will do irrational things, like loading up at a peak price, for fear of missing out (FOMO) when their rationale side should have been buying when silver was sub-£10oz for that short window - but sentiment for silver was at its lowest
i wish now, from day one of starting my stacking journey i had just bought gold now and just ignored silver entirely 
hindsight and experience {sigh}  

Nah, it's been cleaned, I'll give it a miss.🤣🤣🤣

Go for it. Just leave it in your trouser pocket and chuck them in the washing machine. I had a 20p in mine a few days ago and it came out like a NASA grade mirror.
Much less effort than olive oil and toothpicks for a 5 quid coin. 😂

I'm not so sure that the old argument that 'rate rises are bad for PM's because investors can find a better yield on Bonds' is valid anymore.
Higher rates because central banks have printed and lent their nations into an inflationary nightmare, might not find many investors still seeking a paltry yield over safety...  Gold is of course the ultimate bond.  Natures bond.  It has zero risk of contagion, no expiry date, but no yield.  In a world where western nations are well over 100% debt/gdp ratios, who really wants to lend their life's savings to a government, who might suddenly default.  It's no longer a crazy idea that a "stable" western nation could default within a few months.  In fact it's almost certain that default will have to happen at some point.
If governments dare to chase inflation, their debt repayments will exceed what their taxpayers can be fleeced.  So in the meantime, it's the man with no assets who's being fleeced as his salary goes backwards. It's an untenable situation and eventually it'll have to give.  Probably another 3-4 years of cope left in the system before an everything meltdown.
Real interest rates are negative, and they have to remain that way if profligate western governments are to survive.  There is just no way that they can be raised by the required amount to put a lid on inflation, and everyone knows it.  

I'm not so sure that the old argument that 'rate rises are bad for PM's because investors can find a better yield on Bonds' is valid anymore.
Higher rates because central banks have printed and lent their nations into an inflationary nightmare, might not find many investors still seeking a paltry yield over safety...  Gold is of course the ultimate bond.  Natures bond.  It has zero risk of contagion, no expiry date, but no yield.  In a world where western nations are well over 100% debt/gdp ratios, who really wants to lend their life's savings to a government, who might suddenly default.  It's no longer a crazy idea that a "stable" western nation could default within a few months.  In fact it's almost certain that default will have to happen at some point.
If governments dare to chase inflation, their debt repayments will exceed what their taxpayers can be fleeced.  So in the meantime, it's the man with no assets who's being fleeced as his salary goes backwards. It's an untenable situation and eventually it'll have to give.  Probably another 3-4 years of cope left in the system before an everything meltdown.
Real interest rates are negative, and they have to remain that way if profligate western governments are to survive.  There is just no way that they can be raised by the required amount to put a lid on inflation, and everyone knows it.  

I'm not so sure that the old argument that 'rate rises are bad for PM's because investors can find a better yield on Bonds' is valid anymore.
Higher rates because central banks have printed and lent their nations into an inflationary nightmare, might not find many investors still seeking a paltry yield over safety...  Gold is of course the ultimate bond.  Natures bond.  It has zero risk of contagion, no expiry date, but no yield.  In a world where western nations are well over 100% debt/gdp ratios, who really wants to lend their life's savings to a government, who might suddenly default.  It's no longer a crazy idea that a "stable" western nation could default within a few months.  In fact it's almost certain that default will have to happen at some point.
If governments dare to chase inflation, their debt repayments will exceed what their taxpayers can be fleeced.  So in the meantime, it's the man with no assets who's being fleeced as his salary goes backwards. It's an untenable situation and eventually it'll have to give.  Probably another 3-4 years of cope left in the system before an everything meltdown.
Real interest rates are negative, and they have to remain that way if profligate western governments are to survive.  There is just no way that they can be raised by the required amount to put a lid on inflation, and everyone knows it.  

The issue is the deriratives markets and bond markets are toxic, the evergrande is scratching the surface that lies beneath. Its a massive poweder keg underneath, We are in an everthying bubble now, tech, stocks housing the full thing now. When the 2008 crash happened it was the housing market and before the 2000 dot com crash also, we have had the small pandemic crash back in march 2020. None of it has been fixed, None of it-  you can fix stupid by printing more money, its  a temporary supressent, inflation has been enacted by all the printing and now it catches up, the Boe are only doing interest rises to stop people spending money, but the money is awash in the system like its going out fashion.  

A mate sent this re US debt. Haven't had time to check figures myself yet

Yep... its a whole new world we live in economically and socially

Shadow stats calculate the current rate of inflation in the USA (using the methodology that was used in 1990 to calculate inflation) to be 10.5%. They also use the methodology used in 1980 to calculate inflation and that gives the figure of 15% for 2021.
 
http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts
If the same exercise was applied to the UK numbers I suspect the result would be similar. 

Stocked up on the pasta we use in September, went back yesterday to restock and the same pasta in the same shop has gone up 20% in the meantime. Gas, electricity, diesel etc all up markedly. A poxy rate rise will make no difference to the inflation, money printing, overspending or debt levels imho. 
 
I don’t think such a small rise will do anything to tackle inflation or hammer precious metals price downwards. They talk the talk about inflation and rate rises, but I doubt they will walk the walk, remember it’s still transitory….   

Interesting, I do think they will try and inflate the debt away, however with consumer price inflation rising it might get to the point where it is too much to ignore and they'll be forced to raise interest rates higher. Will that have a knock on effect into the stock market? Who knows. Traditionally it would be bearish for stocks as you say the safe haven is then government bonds. 
But with the debt load that has been printed/created any interest rate increase will increase repayment costs tremendously.
Will we see 1970's interest rates, no idea. But current debt creation is unsustainable. The flood of excess cash chasing an ever smaller pile of goods is driving inflation at the moment. I for one can't see an end to the current manufacturing/delivery delays, thus maintaining the pressure on inflation. The "Just-in-time delivery" system works well, until it doesn't and we can see clearly that it doesn't at the moment. 
With both the UK and the US over 100% of GDP it is risky. Contagion from a sneeze from China's overinflated property market and issues with energy (excuse the bad timing of the pun) could lead to all sorts of chaos in the markets. 

We've never had a time in history where the markets are leveraged like they are. How much is currently tied up in fragile risky assets that are in effect zombie entities that are being kept alive on the life support of almost interest free currency from the  central banks? Once they need to start repaying, the house of cards could come crashing down. 
 
100% agree RII1288 - inflation is running closer to 12%, including the "exported" inflation from the US debt creation. 
They will never be truly fixed on it, to do so would be to acknowledge the Frankenstein monster that they have created. They are hoping the system will crash before too many people notice. Conveniently blamed on Convid and supply chain issues

 

Oh and BTW inflation at 5%... Bah Humbug... food prices have gone up much more, as well as goods and services that have crept up... petrol 149 a litre... the true figure is much higher and for me at this time the governments eyes are not truly fixed on it at the moment

I think this was a token gesture as it won't make a dent in inflation and if they raise too quickly too soon we will defiantly go int recession... We have rising inflation low growth (I don't care what figures the Government provides) and with more semi lockdowns and disruptions with Brexit still yet to take hold... @Stagflation@ in my mind

This was a lovely surprise to open from the wonderful @Jamesd 🎅 Had to get a microscope out to see my favorite parts of what's arrived! Love the 1/10th oz and 1 grammers!