State of silver inventory - bullion dealers

[Tn21]

Shocking how little stock is  available with the major bullion dealers when it comes to silver. 

 

I was aware of issues with inventory, but after looking at a few dealers online it's almost total obliteration. 

 

Wtf is going on?

[Happypanda88]

I have no idea why that is but will take a guess.

1. Bullion dealers are not stocking as much silver as there is low demand. Higher cost of living, increase in energy bills and price of food has caused collectors to cut back on buying silver. Moreover, silver has not lived up to expectation, plus there's 20% VAT to pay so it's viewed as a bad investment. Collectors could well be stocking up on tin baked beans and spam instead.

2. The recent low in spot price of silver plus high energy cost has forced some miners to concentrate on mining other ores with better returns. So less silver coming to the market.

3. The recent financial crisis in the UK where the £Pound plummeted and almost toast has raised awareness. People with cash in the bank may be looking at precious metals as an alternative form saving. This may have caused high demand and out stripped supply. Since gold may be out of reach for many, silver is seen as an alternative.

I suspect at least of one them is truth 😊 

But I know a man @LawrenceChard who might know.  😎

[sixgun]

1 hour ago, Happypanda88 said:

2. The recent low in spot price of silver plus high energy cost has forced some miners to concentrate on mining other ores with better returns. So less silver coming to the market.

A miner takes out what is there in the ground. Mines take years to develop. You don't really have alternative ores. You have what there is.
Most silver is a by product. Most silver isn't deliberately mined - it's just there. There are fewer and fewer primary silver miners.

1 hour ago, Happypanda88 said:

1. Bullion dealers are not stocking as much silver as there is low demand. Higher cost of living, increase in energy bills and price of food has caused collectors to cut back on buying silver. Moreover, silver has not lived up to expectation, plus there's 20% VAT to pay so it's viewed as a bad investment. Collectors could well be stocking up on tin baked beans and spam instead.

As i understand it, dealers cannot get the silver. Maguire said the other day that Swiss refiners have stopped refining silver - they have switched focus to gold which shows a better profit. The rising energy prices and lower silver price means it isn't worth it, so they are doing gold. The US Mint stopped producing ASE's - the blanks were too expensive and it isn't authorised to pay the price.

Atkinsons has a banner saying due to heavy demand there will be delays. Goldsilver.be says the same. Andy Schectman in an interview on 3rd October started out saying that one of the largest wholesalers in the world had sold out most of their inventory. Yes he is a pumper but i suspect he's telling the truth. The issue is not reduced demand, it is reduced supply. 

Yesterday i was watching a video where a UK funeral director was being interviewed. Towards the end he said people should be getting small denomination gold and silver. In a discussion group a few days ago about political issues one of the panellists said that if people hadn't already put their money into gold and silver then they were done for. i do not believe these two are hardcore long term stackers - i suspect they have more recently become aware. It will be interesting to hear what Mr Chard has to say about things in the UK retail market.

[CollectForFun]

29 minutes ago, sixgun said:

Yesterday i was watching a video where a UK funeral director was being interviewed. Towards the end he said people should be getting small denomination gold and silver. In a discussion group a few days ago about political issues one of the panellists said that if people hadn't already put their money into gold and silver then they were done for. i do not believe these two are hardcore long term stackers - i suspect they have more recently become aware. It will be interesting to hear what Mr Chard has to say about things in the UK retail market.

Good point about the mines but why would anyone who has not bought gold or silver recently be "done for"? That's just nonsense, isn't it.

And a funeral director giving investment advice... who knows, he may as well be a TSF member for all we know..!

[sixgun]

14 minutes ago, CollectForFun said:

Good point about the mines but why would anyone who has not bought gold or silver recently be "done for"? That's just nonsense, isn't it.

i am simply quoting what someone said, someone who is seemingly unconnected with the stacker community - we might expect them to say something that doesn't quite make sense. The point is they know fiat is going to pot and real money is gold and silver. That is a massive red pill moment for the average White guy in England/Europe.

We know there is still time to get your hands on some bits and pieces but i don't believe there is time left to build up the sort of stack i had before it was lost in a tragic boating accident. That took years of skulking round, bottom feeding. Look at how the VAT situation has gone wrong in the EU - Estonian 0% is gone - Germany now on the standard rate - those bargains are something of an urban legend which are no more.

[gji25]

it could also be that joe public has started to realize that the fiat money is,nt worth the paper its printed on. it could be joe public is aware that gold and silver are a real commodity and cannot be printed or made to appear by bashing aload of zero,s on a keyboard. it could also be that joe public have got wind of the brics nations and see it as a fairer idea than worthless $ . but that is just my opinion . also some bullion dealers are only selling pre order or lead time. 

[Stacktastic]

 

4 hours ago, Happypanda88 said:

2. The recent low in spot price of silver plus high energy cost has forced some miners to concentrate on mining other ores with better returns. So less silver coming to the market.

3. The recent financial crisis in the UK where the £Pound plummeted and almost toast has raised awareness.

2 & 3 but as you say Laurence can shed a light on it as an actual dealer.  
I would say awareness on it has really gone up since mid 2020 - normal people are asking me about metals & know nothing - its dangerous. 
A woman I bought 13kg of silver for independent bought more from BBP on the day it hit recent highs despite me telling her is will dump back to £15 by month end.  

2 hours ago, sixgun said:

Atkinsons has a banner saying due to heavy demand there will be delays. Goldsilver.be says the same.
The issue is not reduced demand, it is reduced supply. 

Towards the end he said people should be getting small denomination gold and silver. 

And BBP. Gold has also run out with a lot of them. 
I am in a freedom group and a lot of them have started looking at Silver, as the cracks in the banking system are now looking very real. 
The Guilt market & pivot from the bank of england also adds to this. 

2020 Must have been the catalyst as it diverted a lot of peoples attention to metals when Buffet bought it and it skyrocketed. 
My guess if people loaded up on the lows last year and this year .
with supply costs on the mining front rocketing up with fuel and energy my guess is they have slowed down production & its starting to catch up.  

OR the mints are deliberately limiting supply  

2 hours ago, CollectForFun said:

And a funeral director giving investment advice... 

If its the same funeral director that I know he is being might brave standing up to what he has witnessed on his benches (pulling tagliatelle clots out of veins from young heart attack victims) & the c**p he went along with at the start of 2020 with dressing up like it was a nuclear fall out area! a lot of people are following him world wide even some of the key news whistle blowers. I dont really focus much on all that now. He feels guilty for playing his part in all this mess. 

I was just doing the school run & listened to someone that had gone to a covid clinic and everyone including her are really ill.
You cant make this up can you, bet she gets her next booster too. We will see a shock event & turn around on that front by 2024 I think & a lot of very angry people! 

Edited October 19, 2022 by Stacktastic

[TraderGoodbe]

The variation in spot price vs price of coins is alarming - but why would dealer want to swap my 2020 Britannias for 2022 giving me about 5% more coins - seems strange 

[Bigmarc]

Probably due to supply chain issues, we are still having it daily at work. Solve one problem and the next one comes around the corner. As stated above someone somewhere is probably concentrating their efforts on the biggest problem at the time which puts silver on the back burner.

[sixgun]

4 hours ago, Stacktastic said:

A woman I bought 13kg of silver for independent bought more from BBP on the day it hit recent highs despite me telling her is will dump back to £15 by month end.  

i find that doubtful considering the state of Sterling. But let's say that happened. What does that mean to happen?

Spot price is a fictional price - disconnected from reality. If we factor in real inflation which on Shadowstats shows it must have been averaging around at least 8% a year over this century so far. That calculates out that every $1 has to be $6.8 ish now to have the same purchasing power across the US economy. At the beginning of 2000 silver was about $5.30 - metals prices were pretty depressed at that time. Even using the depressed 2000 price that means to have kept up with inflation silver should be 6.8 x 5.30 = $36.00.



The fictional spot prices is massively out of kilter with what price should be just to match inflation. It is not as though it is the days of the Spanish conquistadors and the world is being flooded with new silver. All that is driving the price is the COMEX casino which is rapidly being emptied out of silver inventories.

An in hand silver Britannia from Atkinsons is £27.89 which is $31.53. If you want a 1oz Maple form Apmex it is $28.82. If you had 20% VAT on top it would be $34. Spot doesn't mean in hand physical prices at the dealers. Spot and real world prices have disconnected. Dumps in spot don't necessarily mean silver goes on sale at the dealers especially if supplies are tight.

 

Edited October 19, 2022 by sixgun

[LawrenceChard]

7 hours ago, Tn21 said:

Shocking how little stock is  available with the major bullion dealers when it comes to silver. 

I was aware of issues with inventory, but after looking at a few dealers online it's almost total obliteration. 

Wtf is going on?

I've been answering similar questions at least once a week for the past 3 years or more.

People buying, stacking, investing, in silver coins, and bars, and not just in the UK, which is still a very small market compared with some other places including the USA.

Most bullion mints have been working flat out, with some expanding production, adn still can't keep up.

Big bullion refiners working to supply millions of blanks.

What's the mystery?

😎

[Tn21]

Surely you have not seen it as bad as this @LawrenceChard ?

Edited October 19, 2022 by Tn21

[LawrenceChard]

6 hours ago, Happypanda88 said:

I have no idea why that is but will take a guess.

1. Bullion dealers are not stocking as much silver as there is low demand. Higher cost of living, increase in energy bills and price of food has caused collectors to cut back on buying silver. Moreover, silver has not lived up to expectation, plus there's 20% VAT to pay so it's viewed as a bad investment. Collectors could well be stocking up on tin baked beans and spam instead.

2. The recent low in spot price of silver plus high energy cost has forced some miners to concentrate on mining other ores with better returns. So less silver coming to the market.

3. The recent financial crisis in the UK where the £Pound plummeted and almost toast has raised awareness. People with cash in the bank may be looking at precious metals as an alternative form saving. This may have caused high demand and out stripped supply. Since gold may be out of reach for many, silver is seen as an alternative.

I suspect at least of one them is truth 😊 

But I know a man @LawrenceChard who might know.  😎

1) Is wrong. It is the diametric opposite. Although UK market is almost irrelevant to R,O,W. because of VAT.

2) Miners do not react so quickly and most soilver is mined as by product of copper.

3) Partly correct, but as already stated UK demand is almost irrelevant in global terms.

😎

[LawrenceChard]

2 minutes ago, Tn21 said:

Surely you have not seen it this as bad as this @LawrenceChard ?

Don't you mean good?

😎

[Tn21]

🤣

[jultorsk]

A couple of days back I posted a Bullion Now video interviewing the Perth Mint operations manager - he confirmed that they're at capacity and have had to narrow down the product range, e.g., only producing silver kangaroos and kilo bars in addition to the gold selection. He did confirm they'll do a small "one-off" run of larger Kooks but that's it. No or very little rectangles coming because they're focusing on churning out the "core" products as fast as they can. 🤷‍♂️

https://youtu.be/x6Anex__iDg

 

[LawrenceChard]

3 hours ago, jultorsk said:

A couple of days back I posted a Bullion Now video interviewing the Perth Mint operations manager - he confirmed that they're at capacity and have had to narrow down the product range, e.g., only producing silver kangaroos and kilo bars in addition to the gold selection. He did confirm they'll do a small "one-off" run of larger Kooks but that's it. No or very little rectangles coming because they're focusing on churning out the "core" products as fast as they can. 🤷‍♂️

https://youtu.be/x6Anex__iDg

 

Perth Mint are very good at communicating with their customers. We had a recent delivery which I think were kilo kookaburras, and also bouight some ounce silver kangaroos from them.

Had a chat with one of their top people yesterday.

[sixgun]

[Defeatless]

17 hours ago, sixgun said:

Look at how the VAT situation has gone wrong in the EU - Estonian 0% is gone - Germany now on the standard rate - those bargains are something of an urban legend which are no more.

Still no VAT on coins comming from NL or BE....

Edited October 20, 2022 by Defeatless

[sixgun]

3 hours ago, Defeatless said:

Still no VAT on coins coming from NL or BE....

However if one were to order the coins for delivery in Spain the dealer should put 21% VAT on the coins.
Since July 2021 once a company has exported more than 10 000€ of goods to other EU states that company should charge VAT at the rate applicable in the receiving country. So it would not matter that the coins were 0% in Holland or Belgium - if the coins were being sent to Germany 19% should be added and if they were sent to Spain it would be 21%. 
If i got say Goldsilver.be to hold the coins and then took a trip up from Spain to Belgium to collect them i would avoid the VAT. i would bring them back as my private property and no extra VAT would apply.

Potentially if i got my own courier to collect them in Belgium i would avoid VAT. Potentially if the courier were paid for by a separate transaction then i would avoid VAT - this is what Celt Gold was doing - you booked the courier by a separate transaction and it was a different company arranged it. Personally i get Goldsilver.be to hold coins and after there are 'enough' i have them send them to me.

i think the best way for a Belgium / Dutch company to do this would be to sell the coins and use another (unrelated) company to arrange the shipping. Then on their books they sold the coins in Belgium/ Netherlands.

Edited October 20, 2022 by sixgun

[Stacktastic]

21 hours ago, LawrenceChard said:

People buying, stacking, investing, in silver coins, and bars, and not just in the UK, which is still a very small market compared with some other places including the USA.

I went for freedom group drinks last night & at the end I met a girl that mentioned silver. 
She is stacking £200 a month as thats all she can afford. 

She knows nothing about metals, but is buying from the royal mint as she sees that as legitimate. 
She also cares little about spot price & premiums assuming she knows what that is too? 

I dont think she is alone - its a market of people that are semi-savvy on the economy. 
Moreover people buying all the mad max BS news & fear and not caring about the prices & premiums. 
Its almost like the bitcoin dimwit Hodler too the moon crowd have moved to metals.  
As all thier shitecoins have gone from $5 to $0.20 😛 

Edited October 20, 2022 by Stacktastic

[Stacktastic]

22 hours ago, sixgun said:

i find that doubtful considering the state of Sterling. But let's say that happened.
Spot price is a fictional price - disconnected from reality.
 

I can easily see silver at £15.20-£15.60 again soon.
If somehting happens to break that then there is a £14 potential. 
Fabulous its so messed up isnt it?  

I just hope mike maloney is right & it does not go down to £10 for the next 20 years again. 

Edited October 20, 2022 by Stacktastic

[sixgun]

43 minutes ago, Stacktastic said:

I just hope mike maloney is right & it does not go down to £10 for the next 20 years again. 

Why would silver got to £10 for the next 20 years again?
i ask b/c i am someone who tends to approach this from a fundamental standpoint.

Edited October 20, 2022 by sixgun

[Stacktastic]

33 minutes ago, sixgun said:

Why would silver got to £10 for the next 20 years again?

it wont. forgot the smiley. 

[LawrenceChard]

2 hours ago, Stacktastic said:

I went for freedom group drinks last night & at the end I met a girl that mentioned silver. 
She is stacking £200 a month as thats all she can afford. 

She knows nothing about metals, but is buying from the royal mint as she sees that as legitimate. 
She also cares little about spot price & premiums assuming she knows what that is too? 

I dont think she is alone - its a market of people that are semi-savvy on the economy. 
Moreover people buying all the mad max BS news & fear and not caring about the prices & premiums. 
Its almost like the bitcoin dimwit Hodler too the moon crowd have moved to metals.  
As all thier shitecoins have gone from $5 to $0.20 😛 

That's rather sad, as she will probably never really enjoy the stuff, the RM don't need the profits, and she will probably be put off coins, etc for the rest of her life.