Silver price prediction short term ( +/- 6 months )

[Centauri167]

The spott price of silver is dropping and dropping with each day while the price of coins are almost not moving because of higher and higher premiums ...

What do you guys think about the price setting for the next months:

- will the spott price finding new lows and how low can it go or get stable again and go much higher ?

- will the premiums finally also decline or even getting worse ?

- will the silver raid of may the 15th makes silver go over 3066666688888888888,87 USD/ ounce ? ( LOL )

 

Interested in what you all think.

[sixgun]

The spot price - a paper price does not bear any relation to volume wholesale prices. The system is broken. It really is broken.

The futures margin requirements were reduced on 18th April  - silver was forging ahead, if anything you would increase the margin requirements but this was simply and attempt to stave of problems for those holding the huge silver short positions. Silver was approaching the threshold prices where large players with massive short positions would have to throw in the towel - so margins were reduced and speculators encourage to go short with bid pulling exercises. Large sell orders are put into the market with no intention of selling but speculator see these orders and pile in. The large sell orders are pulled but by then the price is falling. This is illegal but this is being officially sanctioned if not officially carried out.

The same goes for gold. Russia will buy all the gold available. It is a virtually limitless buy order. The RUB price for gold is a variable amount above spot but has been averaging about $35 equivalent. Then when Russia will sell oil at discounted prices for gold the demand for physical in this arb trade is large. The amount of gold on offer at the London fix is a derisory amount considering this is supposed to be the world price setting exercise. Yesterday there was aggregated volumes averaging 2.5 tonnes - this is a small amount when one considers the 1000's of tonnes changing hands which are benchmarked against this. But this is real physical and it gets snapped up and goes off to Russia / China - never to return. Officials have no physical and they certainly don't want it going off to the enemy.  

The game is the RUB. It is about an attempt to discredit the RUB which is now effectively a gold fixed currency. These are wild attempts. At some point it will truly break- i expected it to break years ago but it is amazing what tricks can be pulled. Whilst price is low and specs are selling the big shorts can cover off these shorts. So this has nothing to do with the supply and demand for gold and silver it is about official market manipulation to cover of the big shorts' positions and an attempt to hit the RUB which we have seen strengthening against the USD. 

Do i think the system of suppression will break in the next 6 months? i have thought this for a long time - when the system of suppression breaks silver and gold will fly but the West will be in a mess - it is like trading one good thing for another.

Edited May 12, 2022 by sixgun

[Pete]

I wouldn't have paid £148 million for a Warhol painting of Maryln so what you pay for nice silver coins often doesn't bear much relationship to spot price. Sure if spot was to rise 50% then so would the price of coins but if spot dropped 50% then they wouldn't necessarily get much lower than they are today. Mass produced new release bullion however does tend to mirror spot and you are fortunate living in Belgium that you don't have the 20% killer VAT on top.

[Stacktastic]

I can see silver getting to $19.50 & possible $18.80 very soon as the markets flush & go to cash or bonds. 
Cant see gold being that low for that long - best performing asset this year & silver should follow. 

The miners where its at for me in the medium term as they will lag with a crashing stock market & fear in equities. 
Either way stacking silver and gold is a no brainer to me now. the reset is happening now, with them chasing swift to blockchain. 

Worse case scenario - i can get my money back - best case silver flys to £250 an ounce. 
 

Edited May 13, 2022 by Stacktastic

[sixgun]

57 minutes ago, Stacktastic said:

I can see silver getting to $19.50 & possible $18.80 very soon as the markets flush & go to cash or bonds. 
Cant see gold being that low for that long - best performing asset this year & silver should follow. 

The miners where its at for me in the medium term as they will lag with a crashing stock market & fear in equities. 
Either way stacking silver and gold is a no brainer to me now. the reset is happening now, with them chasing swift to blockchain. 

Worse case scenario - i can get my money back - best case silver flys to £250 an ounce. 
 

i heard Andrew Maguire saying this morning that the spot price of silver is a paper price only. The market has been completely captured. It has nothing to do with the physical supply demand. The traders on the silver futures market have no idea what the physical market is doing. They will if allowed drive the spot price to zero. There won't be any physical at these prices. Spot might be $5 an ounce and there would be physical premiums of $25 an ounce. The market is broken. 

This is coming from the CME….”Effective immediately, (Monday),  temporarily suspend trading and clearing of the July 2022, August 2022, October 2022, November 2022, January 2023, February 2023, April 2023 and all subsequent contract months in the Russian Ruble/U.S. Dollar (RUB/USD) Futures, and all expiries in the Monthly and Weekly Options on Russian Ruble/U.S. Dollar (RUB/USD) Futures until further notice.”

This is how mad it has become. This is how desperate it is. The RUB keeps strengthening. It is a commodity - metals currency. It truly is a hard currency, the world is using it and at the same time rejecting the USD. The controllers are knocking the metals in an attempt to hit the RUB but it is failing. This will crack at some point and the market quoted price for gold and silver will literally explode.

Edited May 13, 2022 by sixgun

[CollectForFun]

1 hour ago, sixgun said:

This is coming from the CME….”Effective immediately, (Monday),  temporarily suspend trading and clearing of the July 2022, August 2022, October 2022, November 2022, January 2023, February 2023, April 2023 and all subsequent contract months in the Russian Ruble/U.S. Dollar (RUB/USD) Futures, and all expiries in the Monthly and Weekly Options on Russian Ruble/U.S. Dollar (RUB/USD) Futures until further notice.”

This is how mad it has become. This is how desperate it is. The RUB keeps strengthening. It is a commodity - metals currency. It truly is a hard currency, the world is using it and at the same time rejecting the USD. The controllers are knocking the metals in an attempt to hit the RUB but it is failing. This will crack at some point and the market quoted price for gold and silver will literally explode.

Honestly, what did you want to suggest by quoting the above excerpt from the notice published by the exchange? Did you even try to understand what is meant by it?

Just to make this one thing clear - the exchange just amends in its rules how the final settlement price is determined and the associated technical details. Currently, they use Moscow exchange as the reference point:

Quote

Final Settlement Price shall be equal to the reciprocal of 
the “RUB MOEX (RUB05),” which is the “Russian ruble per U.S. Dollar” spot exchange rate, for settlement in one business day, reported by the Moscow Exchange (MOEX) as the MOEX USD/RUB FX Fixing at approximately 12:35 p.m., Moscow time

They change this and will start using London instead:

Quote

Final Settlement Price shall be equal to the reciprocal 
of the WM/Refinitiv (“WMR”) “Russian ruble per U.S Dollar” spot exchange rate, for settlement in one 
business day at 10:00 a.m. (London Time)

The reason for rule amendments is as follows:

Quote

The Exchange is making these Rule Amendments in order to maintain consistency with widely used 
contract terms in the over-the-counter foreign exchange market, which are being amended following recent 
disruption to the Russian Ruble markets. 

The suspension part which you chose to quote is most likely a temporary measure in place while the trading commission approves the amendments and will be lifted thereafter.

So?

Edited May 13, 2022 by CollectForFun

[sixgun]

3 hours ago, CollectForFun said:

Honestly, what did you want to suggest by quoting the above excerpt from the notice published by the exchange? Did you even try to understand what is meant by it?

Just to make this one thing clear - the exchange just amends in its rules how the final settlement price is determined. Currently, they use Moscow exchange as the reference point:

They change this and will start using London instead:

The reason for rule amendments is as follows:

The suspension part which you chose to quote is most likely a temporary measure in place while the trading commission approves the amendments and will be lifted thereafter.

So?

So? - So "Currently, they use [the] Moscow exchange as the reference point:"

OK so they have been using the Moscow (Russian) exchange as the reference

And now it is being changed to "using London (Western financial cabal) instead"

Well who would have thought.

There is a concerted attack against the RUB - they are taking London for the reference point for the USD/RUB cross - like this XAU/USD is fixed in London. i have already explained the amount of physical being offered at the fixes is derisory but we are still supposed to imagine the London fix reflects the true price actual physical is changing hands.

Edited May 13, 2022 by sixgun

[MetalMandible]

Increasing demand for gold will carry up the price of silver.  However, if we are talking within the next 6 months, it will be manipulated to remain at a certain level (sub $30). 

Longer term is when things start to really get interesting.

[ArgentSmith]

Surely the everything bubble is now becoming the everything bear market, sell in may and go away 🙄

The next round(s) of QE will come but are months away, Im going Harry Dent for 6 months.

[sixgun]

What's going Harry Dent - rhyming slang for fooo king bent?

Unintended i presume - just my twisted mind.

[Happypanda88]

11 hours ago, ArgentSmith said:

Surely the everything bubble is now becoming the everything bear market, sell in may and go away 🙄

The next round(s) of QE will come but are months away, Im going Harry Dent for 6 months.

Harry Dent reminds me of our very own @Wonger !  Forever a pessimist on gold and never gets his forecast right. You may as well follow Wonger 😁

[SidS]

To avoid disappointment; always follow your head and not your Wonger. 😁