Gold Monitoring Thread £ GBP only

[dicker]

5 minutes ago, Bratnia said:

https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-asset-class-allocation?s=y&sl=7CWLsLH6XBfchAuw5rqYHr

The likes of a 4% SWR is a common choice of guideline withdrawal rate during retirement, start by drawing 4% of the total portfolio value, and then increase that amount by inflation as the amount drawn in subsequent years. Where 4% was the historic worst case that ended 30 years (age 65 to 95) with nothing remaining. More often (much) better, leaving a comparable amount as the inflation adjusted start date portfolio value or more.

Viewed as 50/50 stock/gold and typically in a bad decade for one the other did well, drawing 8% from one half, 0% from the other ... tended to work out OK. Or simplified further, just take each years SWR from whichever of the two is the most up at that time. Yearly best out of stock or gold compounded together provided a historic return of something like 17% annualised, 13% real (after inflation), the compounded yearly worst asset - lost money. In effect having one half invested in a 'asset' (best of the two) that yields a 17% annualised is ... good enough.

Over the 1970's mostly gold provided the gains, across 1980 and 1990's it was stocks, 2000's and it was gold again, 2010's were stocks again ...etc. a tendency for alternations. Where 50/50 of both stocks and gold does ... OK.

The above chart is for US data (stock total returns, US inflation etc.), I don't know of a UK equivalent site, but when applied to the UK was generally similar.

Will 2020's end with gold or stocks having been the 'winner' ??? Can't really predict that so the next best is to 50/50 both, be neither fully right nor fully wrong. I'd guess maybe gold, but don't care to go all-in on such a bet.

Another factor that tends to be over-looked is that at times of stress, high dividends and/or cash interest rates, so also do taxes tend to rise. Gold broadly offsets inflation via price appreciation, bonds do so via interest payments, as interest is a regular/consistent flow so that has tended to be more highly taxed than price appreciation (where you can defer selling until gains are being less punitively taxed).

Noteworthy is that over enough time (decades) the tendency is for 50/50 total returns to more align with whichever is the top line of stocks or gold, less a case of running midway between the two. Another factor is that rebalancing is a form of trading, where the tendency is to add-low/reduce-high. 1980 to 1999 whilst the price of gold was poor, rebalancing had you end 1999 with something like 7 times more ounces of gold than was being held at the start. In the 2000's that swung around, ounces of gold were reduced to buy more relatively cheaper stock shares.

Welcome back Wonger

[Upsidedown]

Aye aye captain! Moonburg ahead!

[Bratnia]

1 hour ago, KRO said:

Completely disagree 
In 1965 I spent half my first months wages on four gold sovereigns costing £16 in total 
I still have those four to this day worth around £1800 in total 
So is a starting wage today £3600 per month?
Gold is indeed a reliable long term store on value 

1965	14.35
1966	14.42
1967	14.64
1968	17.59
1969	14.67
1970	15.62
1971	17.08
1972	27.58
1973	48.35
1974	79.74
1975	69.29
1976	79.02
1977	86.84
1978	110.27
1979	235.19
1980	247.12
1981	208.75
1982	277.49
1983	262.98
1984	265.69
1985	226.61
1986	264.57
1987	259.88
1988	227.55
1989	249.84
1990	203.01
1991	188.58
1992	220.17
1993	263.69
1994	244.57
1995	250.13
1996	217.38
1997	174.72
1998	173.42
1999	180.09
2000	182.83
2001	190.76
2002	212.82
2003	234.15
2004	226.94
2005	297.43
2006	324.04
2007	417.62
2008	596.14
2009	684.18
2010	908.73
2011	1020.35
2012	1029.32
2013	726.99
2014	769.84
2015	716.36
2016	942.58
2017	960.84
2018	1005.45
2019	1157.78
2020	1382.58
2021	1347.06
2022	1532

 

Year end £ gold prices, by the same reasoning did someone at the end of 1980 who bought a ounce of gold for £247, at the end of 1999 when the price of gold was £180/ounce work for a 28% lower nominal wage than what they worked for in 1980. Also bearing in mind that something that cost £1 in 1980 in RPI adjusted terms cost £2.70 at the end of 1999).

[Bratnia]

4 minutes ago, dicker said:

Welcome back Wonger

Don't get it?

[HonestMoneyGoldSilver]

6 minutes ago, Paul said:

Friday £1,954oz ATH not getting breached today 

Maybe tomorrow ??

If the gold price doesn't make you smile then maybe this will 💗

[dicker]

4 minutes ago, Bratnia said:

Don't get it?

If you know, you know.  

[Paul]

4 minutes ago, HonestMoneyGoldSilver said:

If the gold price doesn't make you smile then maybe this will 💗

Until tomorrow, i'll just keep moving stacking on 

[JamesH]

£1,900 and the other metal £23 @James32 I think they were your targets for today?

[treetop1280]

48 minutes ago, James32 said:

Wtf £1899 I'm ready for the wine

£30 a bottle it’s not fake ??? , it’s stolen, so that means it’s ok.    , , let me know 👍

[Dankanugget]

5 minutes ago, JamesH said:

£1,900 and the other metal £23 @James32 I think they were your targets for today?

Onto £2000

[Gruff]

[Bratnia]

17 minutes ago, dicker said:

If you know, you know.  

[Brit2023]

5 minutes ago, treetop1280 said:

£30 a bottle it’s not fake ??? , it’s stolen, so that means it’s ok.    , , let me know 👍

full or empty???:-)

[Dankanugget]

Return ticket to the moon looks affordable now.

[James32]

18 minutes ago, JamesH said:

£1,900 and the other metal £23 @James32 I think they were your targets for today?

Absolutely perfect in my book.

[Chronos]

£1904

[Chronos]

£1905

[Gruff]

1906

[James32]

£1908

[ArgentSmith]

£1910

[9x883]

whoa!!!!

[guywhostacks10122]

the high then the dip

[9x883]

wtf. gold you so cray cray

[James32]

Just now, 9x883 said:

wtf. gold you so cray cray

Reported 

[Gruff]

Just now, 9x883 said:

wtf. gold you so cray cray

You going loco maaaaaan!