Silver price about to plummet

[DarkChameleon]

9 minutes ago, LawrenceChard said:

There always were, atill are, and will be people hyping gold, silver, platinum, palladium, snake oil.

Glen Beck used to help promote at least one big US bullion (bullshit) dealer, it might have been Regal Assets, wjho I stongly suspect used "bait and switch" to lure investors towards bullion, but switch them towards "pre-1933", "non-confiscatable", overpriced gold, such as French 20 francs at high premiums, perhaps 30% to 50% rather than 2 to 3%. Lots of gullible Americans got suckered out of their money believing friendly "Account Managers".

I class Fox News in the same vein, take big advertising and promotional dollars from the highest bidder, to rip-off the suckers.

I am not an expert on American politics, media, etc; our son Duncan is much more clued up than I am, but he does not share his knowledge easily.

Fox was and is bad at fleecing but when the mainstream media showed people in hordes selling theur jewelry at $100/oz it went crazy, everything went into the pot...and the price went ballistic ... the media give the metal pprices a little comment right now with covid taking the spotlight but the unem0loyment checks are rinning dry now and grannies gold jewelry is burning a hold in peoples pockets...i have maybe $15,000 of jewelry just sat in the vault awaiting this moment to hit the market...bracelets i paid $700 for and even s rap go for $1800..with vvs diamonds, its just a few tick tocks away from another horde of sellers...times are about to be real hard for a lot of people which means the rich are drooling at the chance to get at that yellow filthy stuff...lol.

[DarkChameleon]

1 minute ago, ilovesilverireallydo said:

It’s not that it’s up, it’s up disproportionately to other metals in a short period of time

But its been held back while others rose, only natural that one day this dog would find a bone.

[LawrenceChard]

7 hours ago, Bluenitsuj said:

Honest question to those more knowledgeable. 

If hypothetically silver rises to £50 oz sometime in the future, how easy would it be to sell silver bars and coins?

For example, people are paying £230 for a 10oz brit bar now, would they still buy at £500+ for the same bar in the future, and if not, how do you offload some of your silver?

For any market to exist, there must be differences of opinion, also supply and demand.

Demand includes factors such as industrial usage, and also private individuals and small investors, who sometimes turn into sellers. There are mediuma to large investors and speculators, then there are the big international volume markets. These more or less ensure that at any given price, the volume for sale roughly equals the volume wanted. When this balance changes, prices change accordingly. So back when silver was $47 per ounce, there were buyers. At that price, I have Nelson Bunker Hunt in mind; you will all know he famously cornered the silver market. To save themselves going bust, most of the other big players, banks, brokers, etc, changed the commodity market rules, which hugely shifted the balance, and prices plummeted very rapidly. This was a highly exceptional case, but even then, it was possible to sell silver bullion. Similarly with gold when it first hit $847.

Dealers such as our company will still be there making a market, although with any luck, I'll be skiing!

[HerefordBullyun]

33 minutes ago, LawrenceChard said:

Thank you, but I certainly cannot always forecast where prices will go, only apply a few simple principles. G:S is not infallible, but it is a good guide to value between gold and silver, but only in the medium / long term, months and years rather than days and weeks.

Of course. But from a accredited dealer like yourself - you certainly can get a better gauge than some of us. And your honesty in this reply makes you credible.

[vand]

4 minutes ago, ilovesilverireallydo said:

It’s not that it’s up, it’s up disproportionately to other metals in a short period of time

But that's the nature of silver. It has always been more volatile than gold. You can think of silver as a non-expiring call option on gold. In flat and falling markets you get punished for owning the option rather than the underlying, but when the market gets moving in the right direction those options catch up fast and the gains are multiplied.

[DarkChameleon]

1 minute ago, HerefordBullyun said:

Of course. But from a accredited dealer like yourself - you certainly can get a better gauge then some of us.

A dealer makes money by buying and selling as quick as humanly possible, some even getting in trouble for crossing that rule and selling before they bought then get stung...manhattan had a few of those folk in there, selling things they hadnt quite bought yet.

[HerefordBullyun]

1 hour ago, DarkChameleon said:

A dealer makes money by buying and selling as quick as humanly possible, some even getting in trouble for crossing that rule and selling before they bought then get stung...manhattan had a few of those folk in there, selling things they hadnt quite bought yet.

Hi DC interesting point. However I would say maybe things are slightly different over here in some respect in the UK. Lawerence has been established for many years and they have a high reputation here in the forum. There are hustlers and musclers in all sorts of life, but its about deducing whom they are. Credibility and respect is earned.

[LawrenceChard]

3 minutes ago, DarkChameleon said:

Fox was and is bad at fleecing but when the mainstream media showed people in hordes selling theur jewelry at $100/oz it went crazy, everything went into the pot...and the price went ballistic ... the media give the metal pprices a little comment right now with covid taking the spotlight but the unem0loyment checks are rinning dry now and grannies gold jewelry is burning a hold in peoples pockets...i have maybe $15,000 of jewelry just sat in the vault awaiting this moment to hit the market...bracelets i paid $700 for and even s rap go for $1800..with vvs diamonds, its just a few tick tocks away from another horde of sellers...times are about to be real hard for a lot of people which means the rich are drooling at the chance to get at that yellow filthy stuff...lol.

Sure, there will be distress selling, which will bring some supply to the market.

On the other hand, many governments have recenlty created lots of new money. If you think about this like a company with its shares: World Inc just issued about 10% to 20% extra new shares, but the World is still worth about the same as it was a few months ago, possibly less, so the theoretical value of each share should decline by 10%, 20%, 30%, but just not straighaway. By "share", I mean USD, GBP, JPY, EUR, plus all and any other form of fiat or promissory money.

What do we measure all this money against? Hard stuff, such as gold, silver, platinum, possibly real estate, so we should all expect the prices of these hard assets to increase, at least when measured against funny money. I am not trying to hype precious metals here, just explain some simple basic ideas.

I may be wrong.

Also nobody knows how the supply and demand will work out in the short and medium term.

Back in March and April, when people were going hysterical and stampeding into P.M.s, often at silly premiums, my/our advice was to stay calm. By all means buy, but try to understand the mint production, refining, and transport problems; be prepared to wait for delivery rather than pay stupid prices.

Since then, we have seen a two-way market return, and for the last month or so, we have seen a return to a rough balance of supply and demand. With COVID-19 restrictions easing, we expect to see this process continue.

Our company's role in this is to continue making a market.

[LawrenceChard]

25 minutes ago, ilovesilverireallydo said:

It’s not that it’s up, it’s up disproportionately to other metals in a short period of time

While that is true, it was disproportionately cheap when the Gold:Silver ratio went over 100 It think it peaked at about 126. Some year ago, I worked out its average over a few years, and found it between 52 to 55. While there is no "right" or "wrong" ratio, those values sound sensible to me. 100+ means silver was about half price (or gold was double), so seeing G:S coming down to a more sensible 85 has been absolutely no surprise. It's wat some market observers call a correction.

[LawrenceChard]

29 minutes ago, DarkChameleon said:

A dealer makes money by buying and selling as quick as humanly possible, some even getting in trouble for crossing that rule and selling before they bought then get stung...manhattan had a few of those folk in there, selling things they hadnt quite bought yet.

There's no real rule there to cross.

While we would always prefer to buy first, then sell the stock we have, we also act as a marlet maker, so we are prepared, within reason, to sell stuff we have not yet bought, but only when we are transparent with the buyer, and we have reasonable expection of balancing our stock position soon, preferably same day, or within a few days. Where that is unlikley to happen (think COVD-19 supply/transport delays), we consider it as having less total stock than normal, for small amounts, and buy something else as a hedge for larger amounts. A few months ago, we bought too many kilo gold bars to cover for Krugerrand, gold Britannias, and gold sovereigns we could not get quickly. Similarly, we bought tonnes of kilo silver bars to cover for silver Britannias we owed.

There is a slight cost in having the "wrong" stock, but it's a kind of insurance against being short of physical. At worst, we can "dump" the bars when coins start to be available.

It's all quite simple in principle!

[LawrenceChard]

44 minutes ago, vand said:

But that's the nature of silver. It has always been more volatile than gold. You can think of silver as a non-expiring call option on gold. In flat and falling markets you get punished for owning the option rather than the underlying, but when the market gets moving in the right direction those options catch up fast and the gains are multiplied.

Now all we need to do is to get the UK goverment to make "Investment Silver" VAT exempt like gold. 

Platinum and palladium also while they are at it.

I don't expect this to happen anytime soon, but it might if TSF members got a 10,000 signature petition going.

[HerefordBullyun]

7 minutes ago, LawrenceChard said:

There's no real rule there to cross.

While we would always prefer to buy first, then sell the stock we have, we also act as a marlet maker, so we are prepared, within reason, to sell stuff we have not yet bought, but only when we are transparent with the buyer, and we have reasonable expection of balancing our stock position soon, preferably same day, or within a few days. Where that is unlikley to happen (think COVD-19 supply/transport delays), we consider it as having less total stock than normal, for small amounts, and buy something else as a hedge for larger amounts. A few months ago, we bought too many kilo gold bars to cover for Krugerrand, gold Britannias, and gold sovereigns we could not get quickly. Similarly, we bought tonnes of kilo silver bars to cover for silver Britannias we owed.

There is a slight cost in having the "wrong" stock, but it's a kind of insurance against being short of physical. At worst, we can "dump" the bars when coins start to be available.

It's all quite simple in principle!

Thats what is key. transparency and communication with the customer. I bought some bars off you whilst I knew it was in the market to buy becuase it was cheap in march. You put on the website that it was orderable and you gave regular customer updates. Thats I why I know what I get on the tin with you guys at chards!

[Shinus73]

8 hours ago, Bluenitsuj said:

Honest question to those more knowledgeable. 

If hypothetically silver rises to £50 oz sometime in the future, how easy would it be to sell silver bars and coins?

For example, people are paying £230 for a 10oz brit bar now, would they still buy at £500+ for the same bar in the future, and if not, how do you offload some of your silver?

In early 2011, I bought and sold all the way up and all the way down again. There was no shortage of buyers near the top. I remember selling a few 10 oz bars for around the £360 mark and sold a tube of Philharmonics for £700 to a bloke in the car park at work.

[LawrenceChard]

6 minutes ago, HerefordBullyun said:

Thats what is key. transparency and communication with the customer. I bought some bars off you whilst I knew it was in the market to buy becuase it was cheap in march. You put on the website that it was orderable and you gave regular customer updates. Thats I why I know what I get on the tin with you guys at chards!

Thanks again, that's good to hear!

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Added 0 minutes later...

1 minute ago, Shinus73 said:

In early 2011, I bought and sold all the way up and all the way down again. There was no shortage of buyers near the top. I remember selling a few 10 oz bars for around the £360 mark and sold a tube of Philharmonics for £700 to a bloke in the car park at work.

Never buy anything from someone in the car park!

[Shinus73]

3 minutes ago, LawrenceChard said:

Thanks again, that's good to hear!

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Added 0 minutes later...

Never buy anything from someone in the car park!

Many good things can be bought in a car park.

[Darr3nG]

9 minutes ago, LawrenceChard said:

Never buy anything from someone in the car park!

Some of the best deals are to be found in the car park... ( eh, @Tattoedamat  )

[LawrenceChard]

9 minutes ago, Darr3nG said:

Some of the best deals are to be found in the car park... ( eh, @Tattoedamat  )

I used to have some of my best times in the car park, but I digress!

[Prophecy]

38 minutes ago, LawrenceChard said:

I used to have some of my best times in the car park, but I digress!

Bloody hell Lawrence you old fruit

[HerefordBullyun]

41 minutes ago, LawrenceChard said:

I used to have some of my best times in the car park, but I digress!

Im hoping it wasnt just a photo with the snake on Blackpool seafront carpark! 😜

[Prophecy]

4 minutes ago, HerefordBullyun said:

Im hoping it wasnt just a photo with the snake on Blackpool seafront carpark! 😜

I think his comment was just a Careless Whisper.

[DarkChameleon]

1 hour ago, LawrenceChard said:

Sure, there will be distress selling, which will bring some supply to the market.

On the other hand, many governments have recenlty created lots of new money. If you think about this like a company with its shares: World Inc just issued about 10% to 20% extra new shares, but the World is still worth about the same as it was a few months ago, possibly less, so the theoretical value of each share should decline by 10%, 20%, 30%, but just not straighaway. By "share", I mean USD, GBP, JPY, EUR, plus all and any other form of fiat or promissory money.

What do we measure all this money against? Hard stuff, such as gold, silver, platinum, possibly real estate, so we should all expect the prices of these hard assets to increase, at least when measured against funny money. I am not trying to hype precious metals here, just explain some simple basic ideas.

I may be wrong.

Also nobody knows how the supply and demand will work out in the short and medium term.

Back in March and April, when people were going hysterical and stampeding into P.M.s, often at silly premiums, my/our advice was to stay calm. By all means buy, but try to understand the mint production, refining, and transport problems; be prepared to wait for delivery rather than pay stupid prices.

Since then, we have seen a two-way market return, and for the last month or so, we have seen a return to a rough balance of supply and demand. With COVID-19 restrictions easing, we expect to see this process continue.

Our company's role in this is to continue making a market.

Id agree itslike inflation as the currency drops the cost appears better but unkessthat mansion costs 30% more i  thelast two weeks then the rising price of pms is beating the drop in currency.

[DarkChameleon]

1 hour ago, LawrenceChard said:

There's no real rule there to cross.

While we would always prefer to buy first, then sell the stock we have, we also act as a marlet maker, so we are prepared, within reason, to sell stuff we have not yet bought, but only when we are transparent with the buyer, and we have reasonable expection of balancing our stock position soon, preferably same day, or within a few days. Where that is unlikley to happen (think COVD-19 supply/transport delays), we consider it as having less total stock than normal, for small amounts, and buy something else as a hedge for larger amounts. A few months ago, we bought too many kilo gold bars to cover for Krugerrand, gold Britannias, and gold sovereigns we could not get quickly. Similarly, we bought tonnes of kilo silver bars to cover for silver Britannias we owed.

There is a slight cost in having the "wrong" stock, but it's a kind of insurance against being short of physical. At worst, we can "dump" the bars when coins start to be available.

It's all quite simple in principle!

I just got accussed of saying your onw of those people but if you were say selling high premium coins that you were not sure you could even get the coins that would be deception...im not saying you do that but some do...limited mintage coins and then get lots of purchasesthen find they ca t get them and what?, return the money which is eesence stops the collector from going out on theirmown tobuy them while they can...like say a promise toget the 2019 reverse proof eagle when they were going for one per person...some have done that with items and a buy of kilos wont make good on that ability taken away, or if a coin then jumps like the example did and sales were made for say $300 and then the coin quickly jumps to 1200 and the supplier retirns the money saying stock wasnot available then weekslater is selling coibsfor $1400 that were promised.

[DarkChameleon]

1 hour ago, LawrenceChard said:

Now all we need to do is to get the UK goverment to make "Investment Silver" VAT exempt like gold. 

Platinum and palladium also while they are at it.

I don't expect this to happen anytime soon, but it might if TSF members got a 10,000 signature petition going.

Isnt that what etfs are for?

[DarkChameleon]

1 hour ago, Shinus73 said:

Many good things can be bought in a car park.

Like hookers....for your rugby team

[MetalMandible]

On 25/02/2019 at 03:10, Wonger said:

 On the 12/06/2018 the silver price closed at $17.03, the commercials were net short 67000 futures contracts, the result was a drop of $3.13 to $13.90 on the 14/11/2018, the most recent COT report is 25/02/2019 ( its still 2 weeks behind due to the government shut down) the commercials are now 78000 net short futures contracts, this points to a drop to the low $13.00 range, Ive now hedged my physical silver by going short, while hedged I receive 2% interest because Im buying US Dollars which have a yield and selling silver which does not, I would recommend this to anyone who is holding physical silver, its the sensible thing to do.  

"On 25/02/2019 at 03:10, Wonger said:"

"About to plummet" 

😄