sixgun

i got these from @GoldShack - now there is a beast with claws guarding them.
    

i got these from @GoldShack - now there is a beast with claws guarding them.
    

But the handful of coins bought by people like us is just a handful of coins. There are entities out there buying tonnes of it. Imagine 1.4 billion Chinese digging into their pockets for a few bits of gold. Imagine 1.4 billion Indians doing the same. Many of the right minded central banks are buying gold. Russia and China continue to accumulate thousands of tonnes. Russia dropped the sales tax on gold this year to encourage citizens to buy more. Physical demand is huge. That most of the people on your street haven't got a clue about gold just shows that decades of brainwashing works for 75% of people. Thank God you are in the other 25%.

What are institutions locking into to get 5% APR?
If you are talking about bonds - then you should know bonds are in a bear market. They were in a bull market since around the mid 1980's - now they are in a bear market. i saw Mario from Maneco64 say the bond bear market will last until the mid 2030's. Mario used to be a City bond trader. That being the case there will be crushing capital losses in bonds which aren't even yielding enough to cover inflation. 
Gold is money. Even the Bank of England calls gold 'commodity money'.
https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/KnowledgeBank/what-is-money
Gold is money and everything else is credit - JP Morgan said this and he was right. You cannot print money, only create more credit - that's currency.
Investing is long term. Futures are short term - if you look at a lot of commodity ETF's they don't perform that well, this is because they invest in futures in which the time premium erodes over time so their value as compared with spot doesn't do as well. They are fine for trading but not strictly investing.
The Global South for sure see gold as money - it is cultural. They have seen their own currencies inflate away to nothing whilst the gold they hold has held its value.
BRICS will introduce a commodity currency - gold is the major component. 
https://fintechs.fi/2022/07/25/brics-nations-plan-to-create-a-new-international-reserve-currency/
China has had a gold trade note for several years now. https://www.gold-eagle.com/article/gold-trade-note-sighted
China is trading oil with the Petro-Yuan contracts convertible to gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange. 
Cash has become trash. Gold is becoming the go to - the alpha and omega. 
You can get a yield on gold - i for sure get a yield on my gold held inside the Kinesis Money System. i can trade it, save it with a yield and spend it on a debit card. 
Gold has entered the 21st century on blockchain tracks.

But the handful of coins bought by people like us is just a handful of coins. There are entities out there buying tonnes of it. Imagine 1.4 billion Chinese digging into their pockets for a few bits of gold. Imagine 1.4 billion Indians doing the same. Many of the right minded central banks are buying gold. Russia and China continue to accumulate thousands of tonnes. Russia dropped the sales tax on gold this year to encourage citizens to buy more. Physical demand is huge. That most of the people on your street haven't got a clue about gold just shows that decades of brainwashing works for 75% of people. Thank God you are in the other 25%.

What does inflation mean?
It means the expansion of monetary supply without an equivalent increase in GDP.
Prices rise as a consequence of inflation (price rises are not actually inflation just a result of it).
Right we see high inflation - so we are likely to see high price rises. Why would gold prices not go up?
Let's say gold were £1500 / ounce - then imagine as a result of inflation general prices doubled every year for 10 years. At the end of that time prices would be over 1000 higher.
Now do we imagine gold would still be £1500 an ounce? 
Inflation means the currency is being dilated in value - it is getting weaker - it is becoming worth less and less, until it is worthless. 
Gold is about preserving purchasing power - high inflation should be when gold gets into top gear.
On another thread i pointed out that if silver had kept up with real inflation in the USA it would be $36 an ounce - i make the case for price manipulation on that basis alone - no-one can say silver is not in high demand, supply is short so its price must be being suppressed.

What does inflation mean?
It means the expansion of monetary supply without an equivalent increase in GDP.
Prices rise as a consequence of inflation (price rises are not actually inflation just a result of it).
Right we see high inflation - so we are likely to see high price rises. Why would gold prices not go up?
Let's say gold were £1500 / ounce - then imagine as a result of inflation general prices doubled every year for 10 years. At the end of that time prices would be over 1000 higher.
Now do we imagine gold would still be £1500 an ounce? 
Inflation means the currency is being dilated in value - it is getting weaker - it is becoming worth less and less, until it is worthless. 
Gold is about preserving purchasing power - high inflation should be when gold gets into top gear.
On another thread i pointed out that if silver had kept up with real inflation in the USA it would be $36 an ounce - i make the case for price manipulation on that basis alone - no-one can say silver is not in high demand, supply is short so its price must be being suppressed.

What does inflation mean?
It means the expansion of monetary supply without an equivalent increase in GDP.
Prices rise as a consequence of inflation (price rises are not actually inflation just a result of it).
Right we see high inflation - so we are likely to see high price rises. Why would gold prices not go up?
Let's say gold were £1500 / ounce - then imagine as a result of inflation general prices doubled every year for 10 years. At the end of that time prices would be over 1000 higher.
Now do we imagine gold would still be £1500 an ounce? 
Inflation means the currency is being dilated in value - it is getting weaker - it is becoming worth less and less, until it is worthless. 
Gold is about preserving purchasing power - high inflation should be when gold gets into top gear.
On another thread i pointed out that if silver had kept up with real inflation in the USA it would be $36 an ounce - i make the case for price manipulation on that basis alone - no-one can say silver is not in high demand, supply is short so its price must be being suppressed.

I have ssen  similar quetions many times before, on TSF and elsewhere.
Yhe answer is NO.
No real bullion dealer would do that. We make our money by trading. Buying and selling.
When spot prices go down, we might take a "book" loss on our stock unless it is fully hedged, but then we would also make a book gain if spot goes up.
When spot prices go down, lots of investors jump in and buy,.
Sales could be 2, 3, or 10 times normal levels, so a dealer' entire stock could be depleted in a few hours or days. I am talking here about the most popular volume sellers, which usually have the lowest premiums, not the more obsrure stuff with higher premiums.
Even in normal times, in can takes a few days at least to replenish stock.
This is not a normal time. There are lots of ordinary people investing in gold, and silver. Mosts mints cannot keep up with demand, and are not holding much stock, if any at all, so it is a case of waiting for more to be produced. Production cnnot just be doubled, or tripled or more overnight. Even if striking could be increased, more blanks are required.
Also currently, as I have been writing, the Royal Mint has been, and still is, in a changeover period between  2022 and 2023, and also between QEII and Charles III.  Many people want to buy some QEII coinsof both years, and others want new Charles ones.
We have to give the RM forecasts of our requirements months ahead, but if demand changes, the mint sell out quickly, and often to much bigger US and other foreign dealers. The UK market is only small compared with the internetional market, so the international market can quickly mop up any extra production.
This is more or less the same for all bigger dealers. 
Some, mainly smaller ones, stick their premiums up, which give them a big fat profit, and also makes their existing stock last longer.
Any bullion dealer who just sat on stock nursing its losses would  not stay in business for very long.
One other factor, and this mainly affects secondary market stuff, is the small investors, ordinary people often choose not to sell when prices are low. Dealers can't buy if people are not selling.
Would you sell some of your gold when prices just went down £50 per ounce? No, you wouldn't, which means you could have answered your own question.
😎

A couple of days back I posted a Bullion Now video interviewing the Perth Mint operations manager - he confirmed that they're at capacity and have had to narrow down the product range, e.g., only producing silver kangaroos and kilo bars in addition to the gold selection. He did confirm they'll do a small "one-off" run of larger Kooks but that's it. No or very little rectangles coming because they're focusing on churning out the "core" products as fast as they can. 🤷‍♂️
https://youtu.be/x6Anex__iDg
 

i find that doubtful considering the state of Sterling. But let's say that happened. What does that mean to happen?

Spot price is a fictional price - disconnected from reality. If we factor in real inflation which on Shadowstats shows it must have been averaging around at least 8% a year over this century so far. That calculates out that every $1 has to be $6.8 ish now to have the same purchasing power across the US economy. At the beginning of 2000 silver was about $5.30 - metals prices were pretty depressed at that time. Even using the depressed 2000 price that means to have kept up with inflation silver should be 6.8 x 5.30 = $36.00.



The fictional spot prices is massively out of kilter with what price should be just to match inflation. It is not as though it is the days of the Spanish conquistadors and the world is being flooded with new silver. All that is driving the price is the COMEX casino which is rapidly being emptied out of silver inventories.
An in hand silver Britannia from Atkinsons is £27.89 which is $31.53. If you want a 1oz Maple form Apmex it is $28.82. If you had 20% VAT on top it would be $34. Spot doesn't mean in hand physical prices at the dealers. Spot and real world prices have disconnected. Dumps in spot don't necessarily mean silver goes on sale at the dealers especially if supplies are tight.

 

i am simply quoting what someone said, someone who is seemingly unconnected with the stacker community - we might expect them to say something that doesn't quite make sense. The point is they know fiat is going to pot and real money is gold and silver. That is a massive red pill moment for the average White guy in England/Europe.

We know there is still time to get your hands on some bits and pieces but i don't believe there is time left to build up the sort of stack i had before it was lost in a tragic boating accident. That took years of skulking round, bottom feeding. Look at how the VAT situation has gone wrong in the EU - Estonian 0% is gone - Germany now on the standard rate - those bargains are something of an urban legend which are no more.

A miner takes out what is there in the ground. Mines take years to develop. You don't really have alternative ores. You have what there is.
Most silver is a by product. Most silver isn't deliberately mined - it's just there. There are fewer and fewer primary silver miners.
As i understand it, dealers cannot get the silver. Maguire said the other day that Swiss refiners have stopped refining silver - they have switched focus to gold which shows a better profit. The rising energy prices and lower silver price means it isn't worth it, so they are doing gold. The US Mint stopped producing ASE's - the blanks were too expensive and it isn't authorised to pay the price.
Atkinsons has a banner saying due to heavy demand there will be delays. Goldsilver.be says the same. Andy Schectman in an interview on 3rd October started out saying that one of the largest wholesalers in the world had sold out most of their inventory. Yes he is a pumper but i suspect he's telling the truth. The issue is not reduced demand, it is reduced supply. 
Yesterday i was watching a video where a UK funeral director was being interviewed. Towards the end he said people should be getting small denomination gold and silver. In a discussion group a few days ago about political issues one of the panellists said that if people hadn't already put their money into gold and silver then they were done for. i do not believe these two are hardcore long term stackers - i suspect they have more recently become aware. It will be interesting to hear what Mr Chard has to say about things in the UK retail market.

i find that doubtful considering the state of Sterling. But let's say that happened. What does that mean to happen?

Spot price is a fictional price - disconnected from reality. If we factor in real inflation which on Shadowstats shows it must have been averaging around at least 8% a year over this century so far. That calculates out that every $1 has to be $6.8 ish now to have the same purchasing power across the US economy. At the beginning of 2000 silver was about $5.30 - metals prices were pretty depressed at that time. Even using the depressed 2000 price that means to have kept up with inflation silver should be 6.8 x 5.30 = $36.00.



The fictional spot prices is massively out of kilter with what price should be just to match inflation. It is not as though it is the days of the Spanish conquistadors and the world is being flooded with new silver. All that is driving the price is the COMEX casino which is rapidly being emptied out of silver inventories.
An in hand silver Britannia from Atkinsons is £27.89 which is $31.53. If you want a 1oz Maple form Apmex it is $28.82. If you had 20% VAT on top it would be $34. Spot doesn't mean in hand physical prices at the dealers. Spot and real world prices have disconnected. Dumps in spot don't necessarily mean silver goes on sale at the dealers especially if supplies are tight.

 

i am simply quoting what someone said, someone who is seemingly unconnected with the stacker community - we might expect them to say something that doesn't quite make sense. The point is they know fiat is going to pot and real money is gold and silver. That is a massive red pill moment for the average White guy in England/Europe.

We know there is still time to get your hands on some bits and pieces but i don't believe there is time left to build up the sort of stack i had before it was lost in a tragic boating accident. That took years of skulking round, bottom feeding. Look at how the VAT situation has gone wrong in the EU - Estonian 0% is gone - Germany now on the standard rate - those bargains are something of an urban legend which are no more.

A miner takes out what is there in the ground. Mines take years to develop. You don't really have alternative ores. You have what there is.
Most silver is a by product. Most silver isn't deliberately mined - it's just there. There are fewer and fewer primary silver miners.
As i understand it, dealers cannot get the silver. Maguire said the other day that Swiss refiners have stopped refining silver - they have switched focus to gold which shows a better profit. The rising energy prices and lower silver price means it isn't worth it, so they are doing gold. The US Mint stopped producing ASE's - the blanks were too expensive and it isn't authorised to pay the price.
Atkinsons has a banner saying due to heavy demand there will be delays. Goldsilver.be says the same. Andy Schectman in an interview on 3rd October started out saying that one of the largest wholesalers in the world had sold out most of their inventory. Yes he is a pumper but i suspect he's telling the truth. The issue is not reduced demand, it is reduced supply. 
Yesterday i was watching a video where a UK funeral director was being interviewed. Towards the end he said people should be getting small denomination gold and silver. In a discussion group a few days ago about political issues one of the panellists said that if people hadn't already put their money into gold and silver then they were done for. i do not believe these two are hardcore long term stackers - i suspect they have more recently become aware. It will be interesting to hear what Mr Chard has to say about things in the UK retail market.

It's already happening. This shows a recent video where a friend of mine is using the Kinesis virtual debit card. The card is still being trialled but gold and silver are certainly being used to buy stuff.
 

An EU company selling into Germany could sell up to €100k before they had to apply Germany VAT. This changed in July 2021 when a company's VAT threshold for all goods exported within the EU became €10k total sales. 

i don't know how European Mint ran their business but i ordered from Celtic Gold several times and they were strict about you buying the coins first and then arranging shipping yourself with another company. They had sold you the coins and they were still in Estonia - deal done, transaction complete. VAT 0%. Then you took them home so to speak. As it was the shipping i used was arranged by a company run by the guy's wife but it was certainly a two stage transaction. 

With GS.be they are in Belgium and so should always have been charging VAT when they sent to the rest of the EU and the UK pre-Brexit. As i say i was told this by a UK dealer who had investigated the VAT rules very thoroughly - he has taken questions to the UK parliament about this. He said GS.be was buying them in from outside the EU, being charged a low rate of VAT and not reclaiming that VAT. That meant GS.be was at the end of the transaction chain. The silver was fully VAT paid. Then the silver was sold again but as second hand coins with VAT only being paid on the profit made. Up to that point there is nothing wrong being done except companies have been advertising they were VAT free - Silver-to-go is an example of a company who claimed this and still have it on their website - "Silver-to-go specialises in buying and selling VAT free silver bullion coins ". But the coins are not VAT free or should not have been b/c there would be VAT on the profits on the coins. There was also VAT in the price paid by Silver-to-go as they imported them. They should not have been claiming the coins were VAT free when they weren't. i looked at GS.be sales invoices and it says 0% tax. Even if they sell coins second hand with margin relief they are not 0% tax. There is tax on the profits. Some of that VAT should have been paid to other countries inside the EU and so all the dealers should be VAT registered. Really it does suggest that the whole EU VAT system has been very sloppy and now it is tightening up.
So some German dealers have been breaking the law b/c they have been claiming coins are VAT when clearly they can't be unless there is VAT fraud going on.
They have been exploiting a grey area of the law. i actually think if someone in the German government did a proper analysis they would realise Germany will be losing out. This VAT change will mean a lot less silver will be bought from Germany. i have bought thousands and thousands of euros of silver from German dealers. This will now stop - completely. Dealer profits will be less, total VAT receipts will be less. 
i will just buy bits off TSF and otherwise buy it on the Exchange at Kinesis Money. 

It's already happening. This shows a recent video where a friend of mine is using the Kinesis virtual debit card. The card is still being trialled but gold and silver are certainly being used to buy stuff.
 

An EU company selling into Germany could sell up to €100k before they had to apply Germany VAT. This changed in July 2021 when a company's VAT threshold for all goods exported within the EU became €10k total sales. 

i don't know how European Mint ran their business but i ordered from Celtic Gold several times and they were strict about you buying the coins first and then arranging shipping yourself with another company. They had sold you the coins and they were still in Estonia - deal done, transaction complete. VAT 0%. Then you took them home so to speak. As it was the shipping i used was arranged by a company run by the guy's wife but it was certainly a two stage transaction. 

With GS.be they are in Belgium and so should always have been charging VAT when they sent to the rest of the EU and the UK pre-Brexit. As i say i was told this by a UK dealer who had investigated the VAT rules very thoroughly - he has taken questions to the UK parliament about this. He said GS.be was buying them in from outside the EU, being charged a low rate of VAT and not reclaiming that VAT. That meant GS.be was at the end of the transaction chain. The silver was fully VAT paid. Then the silver was sold again but as second hand coins with VAT only being paid on the profit made. Up to that point there is nothing wrong being done except companies have been advertising they were VAT free - Silver-to-go is an example of a company who claimed this and still have it on their website - "Silver-to-go specialises in buying and selling VAT free silver bullion coins ". But the coins are not VAT free or should not have been b/c there would be VAT on the profits on the coins. There was also VAT in the price paid by Silver-to-go as they imported them. They should not have been claiming the coins were VAT free when they weren't. i looked at GS.be sales invoices and it says 0% tax. Even if they sell coins second hand with margin relief they are not 0% tax. There is tax on the profits. Some of that VAT should have been paid to other countries inside the EU and so all the dealers should be VAT registered. Really it does suggest that the whole EU VAT system has been very sloppy and now it is tightening up.
So some German dealers have been breaking the law b/c they have been claiming coins are VAT when clearly they can't be unless there is VAT fraud going on.
They have been exploiting a grey area of the law. i actually think if someone in the German government did a proper analysis they would realise Germany will be losing out. This VAT change will mean a lot less silver will be bought from Germany. i have bought thousands and thousands of euros of silver from German dealers. This will now stop - completely. Dealer profits will be less, total VAT receipts will be less. 
i will just buy bits off TSF and otherwise buy it on the Exchange at Kinesis Money. 

What a mess! Out of interest I searched for more information and I can tell you this can become interesting if the authorities decide to apply a hard line in terms of the past periods and start assessing additional VAT to the dealers for previous years. But I hope they will be more lenient towards the past, but in any case, the loophole seems to be definitely closed for the future.
For those interested in the detailed background, I summarise below the respective legislation including the links to the underlying documents (sorry for long post!|:
According to the German VAT Act, reduced 7% VAT can be applied to several categories of goods, which are listed in Annex 2 to the VAT Act. Collectors' items ("Sammlungsstücke") are covered by Point 54 of this Annex. According to letter c) paragraph cc) of that point, coins and medals made of precious metals qualify as collectors' items if their price (excl. VAT) exceeds 250% of the metal value. According to Article 12 paragraph 2 point 12 of the German VAT Act, reduced rate on the above items specified in Point 54 of Annex 2 shall be applied only on importation of goods, i.e. not on domestic or intra-community transactions. This is in accordance with the EU VAT Directive which does not allow applying reduced VAT rate on collectors' items in general, but only on imports. So far so good. The German Ministry of Finance issued a letter on 5 August 2004 detailing application of reduced VAT rates. This letter starts with the following introduction: "With reference to the result of the discussions with the highest tax authorities of the federal states, the following applies to the application of the reduced tax rate to sales of items specified in Appendix 2 of the UStG carried out after July 30, 2004:". So this letter pretends to be quite an official interpretation of the law, as I see it. Silver coins are covered by line 174 point 2 of that letter and this is where it becomes really interesting, as this letter literally says that "The reduced tax rate can be applied to sales of silver coins that are not included in the list attached to this letter without the need for a valuation.". So it's pretty simple - silver coin not in the list? Then reduced VAT rate applies irrespective of the premium. And if the coin is in the list? "The sales of the silver coins listed in the attachment are regularly subject to the standard tax rate. However, the entrepreneur can claim the reduced tax rate for those coins if he can prove that the requirements are met in the individual case. The list of silver coins subject to the general tax rate is regularly reviewed and adjusted as necessary. Any changes to the list will be announced separately.". So the coins listed in the attachment must be tested for price against the metal content value. And so which are those coins which do not qualify for automatic VAT reduction according to the letter of 2004? They are listed in the attachment to that letter and curiously, include only various "junk" silver coins from the 20th century and Maria Theresia Taler, but no bullion coins. Was this list ever updated? I don't know but I did not find any update. I found that in 2014 the Ministry confirmed that the 2004 list still applies. Maybe in 2004 the Ministry did not feel the need to include bullion silver coins as the market was not as widespread and afterwards they just omitted to update the list? Or was there any other reasoning behind which coins are included and which not? And finally, we are now in 2022 when the same Ministry of Finance issued a new letter dated 27 September 2022 in which they just say that "The regulations of the letter of August 5, 2004 led to practical application that the reduced tax rate was applied on some silver coins, although the statutory conditions were not met. The regulations mentioned there are therefore no longer applicable. The regulations of this new letter are to be applied in all open cases.". So what this all means? Basically, in 2004, the Ministry of Finance interpreted the law in such a way that they extended the legal definition of silver coins which qualified for reduced VAT rate on import from >250% items to any silver coins not in the list, whereas the list contained for investors only not very relevant silver coins. This interpretation was arguably followed by the German customs authorities and therefore silver bullion coins could have been imported to Germany with 7% reduced VAT. In 2022 the Ministry suddenly woke up and realised that their interpretation went beyond the law so reversed it and confirmed that 7% may apply only to >250% collectors' items.
This is however not the end of the story, because in order to benefit from the loophole, the dealers had to first import the coins with 7% VAT and then apply the differential taxation in order to avoid taxing the whole value of the coins by 19%. According to article 25a of the German VAT Act, the differential taxation can be applied by resellers of the collectors' items. As was shown above, collectors' items are defined as coins >250% premium. The 2004 letter scratched this requirement but in my understanding, only in respect of the application of reduced VAT rate, so the letter did not re-define the collectors' items for other purposes, such as the application of the differential taxation. Or is there any other method whereby German dealers could have applied differential taxation on new bullion silver coins?
So as I see it, the dealers had every right to rely on the 2004 letter from the Ministry and import silver bullion coins with 7% VAT on them. But I am not so sure they were able to sell these coins under the differential taxation scheme, even while that 2004 letter was in force... In any case, gone are the times of cheap silver bullion from Germany and the it will be interesting to follow further development and how much the dealers will be investigated for the past sales...

Best thing with this situation is, I will buy more Sovereigns from now on.

An EU company selling into Germany could sell up to €100k before they had to apply Germany VAT. This changed in July 2021 when a company's VAT threshold for all goods exported within the EU became €10k total sales. 

i don't know how European Mint ran their business but i ordered from Celtic Gold several times and they were strict about you buying the coins first and then arranging shipping yourself with another company. They had sold you the coins and they were still in Estonia - deal done, transaction complete. VAT 0%. Then you took them home so to speak. As it was the shipping i used was arranged by a company run by the guy's wife but it was certainly a two stage transaction. 

With GS.be they are in Belgium and so should always have been charging VAT when they sent to the rest of the EU and the UK pre-Brexit. As i say i was told this by a UK dealer who had investigated the VAT rules very thoroughly - he has taken questions to the UK parliament about this. He said GS.be was buying them in from outside the EU, being charged a low rate of VAT and not reclaiming that VAT. That meant GS.be was at the end of the transaction chain. The silver was fully VAT paid. Then the silver was sold again but as second hand coins with VAT only being paid on the profit made. Up to that point there is nothing wrong being done except companies have been advertising they were VAT free - Silver-to-go is an example of a company who claimed this and still have it on their website - "Silver-to-go specialises in buying and selling VAT free silver bullion coins ". But the coins are not VAT free or should not have been b/c there would be VAT on the profits on the coins. There was also VAT in the price paid by Silver-to-go as they imported them. They should not have been claiming the coins were VAT free when they weren't. i looked at GS.be sales invoices and it says 0% tax. Even if they sell coins second hand with margin relief they are not 0% tax. There is tax on the profits. Some of that VAT should have been paid to other countries inside the EU and so all the dealers should be VAT registered. Really it does suggest that the whole EU VAT system has been very sloppy and now it is tightening up.
So some German dealers have been breaking the law b/c they have been claiming coins are VAT when clearly they can't be unless there is VAT fraud going on.
They have been exploiting a grey area of the law. i actually think if someone in the German government did a proper analysis they would realise Germany will be losing out. This VAT change will mean a lot less silver will be bought from Germany. i have bought thousands and thousands of euros of silver from German dealers. This will now stop - completely. Dealer profits will be less, total VAT receipts will be less. 
i will just buy bits off TSF and otherwise buy it on the Exchange at Kinesis Money. 

The problem is, when the GSR did briefly go to 120:1 in March 2020 where could you get silver at $11.50 or whatever it was?
As i remember physical disappeared and price went up very rapidly - we saw silver in the high £20's after being in the mid teens for quite some time.
A move to 120 would more than likely be very brief. Physical would disappear off the shelves and dealers will not part with it at silly prices. 
If you want to capitalise on a spike move, if it happened, i think you would need to trade paper - i think maybe even spread betting.
Then when price recovers take your profits and put them into physical in a controlled considered way.