If Society goes cashless, what will happen to the market for modern coins?

[Zhorro]

There is increasing talk of cashless societies, but if this happens what will happen to the modern coin market?  Would the RM still be able to release flood of commemorative 50ps and £5s?  Gold has not been in circulation in the UK since the start of WWI and sovereigns are still released, but if society goes cashless will the endless release of commemorative coins still persist?

I think there will still be demand for historical coins, but the collector base may shrink.  Stackers will still stack.  But if we are cashless, will expensive proof coins still hold their attraction?

So, any thoughts on the direction of the modern coin market if society goes cashless?

[SidS]

I despise modern collector commemorative coins. I have long argued that the sheer quantity is overkill and destroys real growth in the collecting fan base, it all becomes a yawnfest and then people who know nothing about coins start trying to flog crappy 50p coins on eBay, and other non-events in a tin and say l@@k r@re and then come all the unique New Penny two pences dated 1971. The mints around the world, official and third party throw out coins where Elizabeth II looks more like Nicola Sturgeon, or William has incredible buckteeth.

So if it does kill them off, you have put forward the first positive argument I've heard for a cashless society. 😁

[Bigmarc]

Depends on the mintages I suppose. The industry may end up like Pokémon cards. 

 

 

[bluffer]

limited edition NFTs.

 

I mean, nothing could possibly go wrong. 😱  Could it?

[AaaGee]

Its still gold and silver whatever is stamped on to it.

 

Ah, as for normal currency coins? I have no idea.

Edited August 8, 2023 by AaaGee

[AppleZippoandMetronome]

I think its really hard to predict. I think interest will drop off when it comes to coin collecting generally. How many of us got into the hobby because of the fascination we adopted when looking at coins when young? I very much remember going through change looking for particularly old coins or ones that were otherwise special with my mother when younger and that helped kick off my interest. Some people will still come into the hobby though and as stated the old established coins should carry on doing well as will gold and silver because I can't see that demand falling off. I do think the Royal Mint could come up with clever marketing that would make people carry on buying the expensive proofs. There'd be a certain exclusivity in being able to hold or collect coins you'll never see otherwise but again would a younger audience growing up without ever having touched a coin care? I have to imagine the Royal Mint are already talking about this and making plans for if/when it becomes a thing. We are already seeing the result of them making less circulating coinage with the other services they continue to roll out and offer as well as the endless offering of expensive proofs.

[SidS]

1 hour ago, AppleZippoandMetronome said:

We are already seeing the result of them making less circulating coinage with the other services they continue to roll out and offer as well as the endless offering of expensive proofs.

Well they're released LOTS of Charles III coinage so far, but where are the 2023 base metal annual sets? I'm waiting...

[jultorsk]

An important topic to ponder - even mentioned in the editorial of the Coin News recently. 

Otherwise, my thoughts for the modern society... 

 

[bluffer]

6 hours ago, SidS said:

Well they're released LOTS of Charles III coinage so far, but where are the 2023 base metal annual sets? I'm waiting...

released months ago

 

https://www.royalmint.com/annual-sets/2023/

[Zhorro]

13 minutes ago, bluffer said:

released months ago

 

https://www.royalmint.com/annual-sets/2023/

These are the commemorative coins, not the standard definitive 1p-£2 denominations.

[SidS]

It's the ones with the 10p-1p that I'm waiting for, the NON commem sets.

[AppleZippoandMetronome]

22 hours ago, SidS said:

Well they're released LOTS of Charles III coinage so far, but where are the 2023 base metal annual sets? I'm waiting...

Yeah kind of amazing they've managed to completely sleep on these whilst putting out so many other releases. I do seem to recall them saying they'd be offered later in the year but wouldn't have thought it would be this late. Maybe they'll be out at the same time they release that new £1 coin design that was meant to enter circulation in 2023.

[Olivard]

2 minutes ago, AppleZippoandMetronome said:

Yeah kind of amazing they've managed to completely sleep on these whilst putting out so many other releases. I do seem to recall them saying they'd be offered later in the year but wouldn't have thought it would be this late. Maybe they'll be out at the same time they release that new £1 coin design that was meant to enter circulation in 2023.

Wouldn't be surprised if they wait until November so they can market it for the Christmas market.

[SidS]

1 minute ago, AppleZippoandMetronome said:

Yeah kind of amazing they've managed to completely sleep on these whilst putting out so many other releases. I do seem to recall them saying they'd be offered later in the year but wouldn't have thought it would be this late. Maybe they'll be out at the same time they release that new £1 coin design that was meant to enter circulation in 2023.

I know, it's starting to look like the winter or even 2024 before they arrive!

I'll happily buy a definitive set (no commemoratives in it hopefully) - I'm dying to know whether the fragmented shield designs are staying or being changed for new designs. I also want to know if the new ordinary £1 coin design is changing, there was some discussion about this before the Queen's passing, not sure whether this has been shelved though.

[Zhorro]

1 minute ago, SidS said:

I know, it's starting to look like the winter or even 2024 before they arrive!

I'll happily buy a definitive set (no commemoratives in it hopefully) - I'm dying to know whether the fragmented shield designs are staying or being changed for new designs. I also want to know if the new ordinary £1 coin design is changing, there was some discussion about this before the Queen's passing, not sure whether this has been shelved though.

I would have thought that the design of the new £1 would have been well advanced before the Queen's passing, so I think it is likely they are redesigning the rest of the definitives' reverses - hence the delay.

[Bratnia]

Another factor is that with no physical legal tender coins/currency, just digital, the likes of Sovereigns and Britannias would no longer be legal tender and as such be taxable.

[GoldDiggerDave]

It could possibly ramp up demand, with everything going digital people might want to hold something real. 

[Zhorro]

1 hour ago, GoldDiggerDave said:

It could possibly ramp up demand, with everything going digital people might want to hold something real. 

I think my concern is that if people do not see coins in use every day, they may not get an affiliation with coins, and so may be less likely to collect them - a bit like what has happened with stamp collecting.

[GoldDiggerDave]

26 minutes ago, Zhorro said:

I think my concern is that if people do not see coins in use every day, they may not get an affiliation with coins, and so may be less likely to collect them - a bit like what has happened with stamp collecting.

Possibly mate,  Fiat currencies fall all the time and we have seen massive changes in  currency from  pre decimal to decimal .  No one has even seen cashless before so its a massive unknown.  I don't like the idea of the amount of control that can be digitally asserted on us with programable currency.   

[MBTPSilver]

I think initially you'd get a real bump in demand and prices. The collector market for the first 10 - 20 years after coins are removed from circulation they'd be very collectable.

Once a generation or two passes by however, I could imagine it becoming more niche. I think of typewriters or postcards etc. There'd still be plenty of passionate collectors, but it would be a much smaller market, but with no modern production that means less supply over time as well so it should balance out.

I'm not sure what would happen with bullion markets at that point, would the CGT exemption disappear on gold/silver coins if coins are no longer in circulation, would they still be considered legal tender? Would RM continue to do annual Sovereigns etc, or eventually have to phase those out as well? They've continued long after the coin stopped circulating so maybe they would continue producing them.

It'll be an interesting transition, but I think we have a good decade or so before that becomes a real threat.