Silver price predictions.

[365DaysofSilver]

What do you guys think the silver price will be in the next couple of years. Will it break through the £20 barrier soon?

I personally think it will be £50 an ounce in the next 5 years with the way things our going and the more informed people are becoming regarding the shambles of a monetary system we have. 

[SidS]

I think £25-£30 per ounce. Wonga thinks £4 per ounce. Swings and roundabouts.

[Stonewood]

My expectation is $30 within 2 years and $50 within 5 years. With the fundamental drivers behind silver, I believe these are relatively conservative price targets. 

[sixgun]

i have bought silver coins through goldsilver.be a number of times this year. i have them keep the coins and the after a few lots in get them to send them to me. It saves on shipping charges.
My order for the last lot of coins i bought still has not been completed - i made the order 3 weeks ago. Looking at the pages of GS.be most of the coins are either out of stock or are designated as 'pre-sale' - which is code for not in stock. Three out of the 6 different types of coins are not available.

i don't remember seeing so many coins unavailable. i just watched an Arcadia Economic video with Rafi Faber - he said Andy Schectman of Miles Franklin had told him he had not seen things as tight since 2008. In the Arcadia video Rafi was saying that since Silver Squeeze (labelled as a waste of time by some members) the amount of silver on the COMEX has been progressively declining. That at the current rate the registered silver is 10 weeks off record lows and will run out in 20 weeks. There is silver in the eligible category but much of this is ETF silver which i will say is spoken for.

The gold and silver prices will take off when there isn't the physical available to support the paper Ponzi scheme.

Edited October 8, 2022 by sixgun

[Stonewood]

6 hours ago, sixgun said:

i have bought silver coins through goldsilver.be a number of times this year. i have them keep the coins and the after a few lots in get them to send them to me. It saves on shipping charges.
My order for the last lot of coins i bought still has not been completed - i made the order 3 weeks ago. Looking at the pages of GS.be most of the coins are either out of stock or are designated as 'pre-sale' - which is code for not in stock. Three out of the 6 different types of coins are not available.

i don't remember see so many coins unavailable. i just wanted an Arcadia Economic video with Rafi Faber - he said Andy Schectman of Miles Franklin had told him he had not seen things as tight since 2008. In the Arcadia video Rafi was saying that since Silver Squeeze (labelled as a waste of time by some members) the amount of silver on the COMEX has been progressively declining. That at the current rate the registered silver is 10 weeks off record lows and will run out in 20 weeks. There is silver in the eligible category but much of this is ETF silver which i will say is spoken for.

The gold and silver prices will take off when there isn't the physical available to support the paper Ponzi scheme.

I totally agree. I have been watching Andy Schectman's interviews (amongst others) for a long time. I realise he has a vested interest in pushing this narrative, but he comes across as genuine and the underlying fundamentals do stack up. I sincerely believe that patience will pay off. 

Other interviewees with interesting opinions and analysis are; Michael Oliver, Matthew Pipenberg, Gregory Mannarino and Steve Penny. 

[dikefalos]

6 hours ago, sixgun said:

i have bought silver coins through goldsilver.be a number of times this year. i have them keep the coins and the after a few lots in get them to send them to me. It saves on shipping charges.
My order for the last lot of coins i bought still has not been completed - i made the order 3 weeks ago. Looking at the pages of GS.be most of the coins are either out of stock or are designated as 'pre-sale' - which is code for not in stock. Three out of the 6 different types of coins are not available.

i don't remember see so many coins unavailable. i just wanted an Arcadia Economic video with Rafi Faber - he said Andy Schectman of Miles Franklin had told him he had not seen things as tight since 2008. In the Arcadia video Rafi was saying that since Silver Squeeze (labelled as a waste of time by some members) the amount of silver on the COMEX has been progressively declining. That at the current rate the registered silver is 10 weeks off record lows and will run out in 20 weeks. There is silver in the eligible category but much of this is ETF silver which i will say is spoken for.

The gold and silver prices will take off when there isn't the physical available to support the paper Ponzi scheme.

German ministry of finance is checking goldsilver.be and is sending letters to their clients in Germany. Propably, because they sell VAT free platinum and peopably VAT free silver to Germany. Not sure, what happens now, if clients have pay now the VAT for their orders, or the Belgians have to pay a fine... I ain't got a letter, hopefully my orders there are way too small

[sixgun]

5 hours ago, dikefalos said:

German ministry of finance is checking goldsilver.be and is sending letters to their clients in Germany. Probably, because they sell VAT free platinum and probably VAT free silver to Germany. Not sure, what happens now, if clients have pay now the VAT for their orders, or the Belgians have to pay a fine... I ain't got a letter, hopefully my orders there are way too small

GS.be has been running quite a long time, i can see the website has been selling since 2015. So the total value of sales for GS.be will be many €millions and they have been doing this for years. To imagine something was not right after so many years - after so many sets of accounts - it is hard to believe. My understanding was they bought silver from outside the EU and then sold it second hand inside the EU.

The legal tender silver coins have been imported at reduced rates of VAT in for example into Germany. If you pay 8% VAT as they come into Germany from say the US, you don't reclaim that VAT and then you sell the coins second hand, you don't have to charge the extra 11% in Germany or 13% say in Spain. There is the full rate of VAT on the profit but not the actual silver coin.

Platinum coins could be sold second hand but there doesn't seem to be much point. The second hand scheme works for silver coins b/c of the reduced import VAT.

So the silver coins aren't strictly sold VAT free. There is VAT in the price as there is whenever you sell a second hand item.
i think i might request my coins are sent to me just in case there are problems. i don't want to end up with a big bill.

[dikefalos]

2 minutes ago, sixgun said:

GS.be has been running quite a long time, i can see the website has been selling since 2015. So the total value of sales for GS.be will be many €millions and they have been doing this for years. To imagine something was not right after so many years - after so many sets of accounts - it is hard to believe. My understanding was they bought silver from outside the EU and then sold it second hand inside the EU.

The legal tender silver coins have been imported at reduced rates of VAT in for example into Germany. If you pay 8% VAT as they come into Germany from say the US, you don't reclaim that VAT and then you sell the coins second hand, you don't have to charge the extra 11% in Germany or 13% say in Spain. There is the full rate of VAT on the profit but not the actual silver coin.

Platinum coins could be sold second hand but there doesn't seem to be much point. The second hand scheme works for silver coins b/c of the reduced import VAT.

So the silver coins aren't strictly sold VAT free. There is VAT in the price as there is whenever you sell a second hand item.
i think i might request my coins are sent to me just in case there are problems. i don't want to end up with a big bill.

Since 2014 we have 19% VAT for silver coins. There was a margin scheme as a exemption rule, but everyone here used it as a loophole for all silver coins. Last Friday, sometime during the night, a letter was published by the Ministry of Finance stating that this exemption rule will be abolished completely and that only collector coins can be taxed at 7%. So far it is not certain when the margin scheme will be abolished, whether immediately or at a later date, but the dealers in Germany on Saturday made all silver coins massively more expensive (15-20%). Almost all of them still show the margin scheme, but only one or two traders have not yet raised their prices.

Above a certain turnover, EU traders need a tax number of the EU country into which the goods were imported (I think from 100,000€). It seems that goldsilver.be did not apply for this and certainly exported more than this turnover to Germany. The silver coins were very often far cheaper than at German dealers. Platinum is, or was, available at unbeatable prices. No VAT is shown on any invoices for platinum coins and this could become a real problem for them, or for the customers. A lot of customers in Germany have already received a letters. A user of the German silver forum asked the responsible tax office and they confirmed the investigation against goldsilver.be. 

[midasjohn]

As long as the derivatives market exists, all precious metals prices will never reflect their fair value. I think in a Digital World precious metals have completely ceased to be money of any type or likelihood. 

As for those who suggest that Electricity/Internet will one day fail - I doubt there will be any people left to trade anything - so that's a moot point.

Barter never existed in any recorded civilisation. Money arises with civilisations' arrival. 

Digital Killed The Precious Metals Star ⭐ 

[sixgun]

1 hour ago, dikefalos said:

Since 2014 we have 19% VAT for silver coins. There was a margin scheme as a exemption rule, but everyone here used it as a loophole for all silver coins. Last Friday, sometime during the night, a letter was published by the Ministry of Finance stating that this exemption rule will be abolished completely and that only collector coins can be taxed at 7%. So far it is not certain when the margin scheme will be abolished, whether immediately or at a later date, but the dealers in Germany on Saturday made all silver coins massively more expensive (15-20%). Almost all of them still show the margin scheme, but only one or two traders have not yet raised their prices.

Above a certain turnover, EU traders need a tax number of the EU country into which the goods were imported (I think from 100,000€). It seems that goldsilver.be did not apply for this and certainly exported more than this turnover to Germany. The silver coins were very often far cheaper than at German dealers. Platinum is, or was, available at unbeatable prices. No VAT is shown on any invoices for platinum coins and this could become a real problem for them, or for the customers. A lot of customers in Germany have already received a letters. A user of the German silver forum asked the responsible tax office and they confirmed the investigation against goldsilver.be. 

Well this looks like my days of buying coins from GS.be are numbered.

The VAT rules between EU countries are quite different but they are getting closer together. In Spain a company must charge VAT from the first euro cent. In Germany it is a turnover over 22000€, it's 85,800€ in France.
There were different thresholds for when you had to apply the VAT rate of the EU country of the buyer you were the sending goods to.
Since July 2021 there is a threshold of 10,000€ for exports for all intra-EU sales. Most EU companies will send more than a total of 10,000€ worth of goods the rest of the EU.
This is all in the name of harmonisation but in reality it is to collect more VAT.

So it seems that 'loophole' is being closed. The loophole was silver coins can/could be imported and have an old VAT rate applied to them - as i remember it was 8% (it might have been 7%). If the company does not reclaim that VAT and sells the coins they can be sold using the margin relief scheme. On GS.be sales invoices it has 'Total (Tax Incl.)' - so tax is shown but it is not itemised. 

So the rule is being abolished - so coins sold before the abolition of the rule were sold under that rule and should not have more tax applied. As i understood it this only applied to silver coins. Platinum should be taxed at the full rate when it is imported into the EU and have the full rate of VAT when it is sold inside the EU - 19% in Germany and for example 21% in Spain.

Now we come to the issue of 'collector' coins. What are collector coins? Have the German authorities defined these. All the coins are sold with large premiums over spot - even by GS.be. People collect these coins - TSF is all about collecting coins. Do the German authorities mean numismatic coins? There is dispute about what numismatic coins are - the EU commodity code doesn't state a numismatic coin should have a certain age. It doesn't state the premium must be of a certain size. Someone might say there is case law stating these things. 

EU countries are going bankrupt, they will try every which way to raise more money from their citizens.

 

Edited October 8, 2022 by sixgun

[dikefalos]

37 minutes ago, sixgun said:

Well this looks like my days of buying coins from GS.be are numbered.

The VAT rules between EU countries are quite different but they are getting closer together. In Spain a company must charge VAT from the first euro cent. In Germany it is a turnover over 22000€, it's 85,800€ in France.
There were different thresholds for when you had to apply the VAT rate of the EU country of the buyer you were the sending goods to.
Since July 2021 there is a threshold of 10,000€ for exports for all intra-EU sales. Most EU companies will send more than a total of 10,000€ worth of goods the rest of the EU.
This is all in the name of harmonisation but in reality it is to collect more VAT.

So it seems that 'loophole' is being closed. The loophole was silver coins can/could be imported and have an old VAT rate applied to them - as i remember it was 8% (it might have been 7%). If the company does not reclaim that VAT and sells the coins they can be sold using the margin relief scheme. On GS.be sales invoices it has 'Total (Tax Incl.)' - so tax is shown but it is not itemised. 

So the rule is being abolished - so coins sold before the abolition of the rule were sold under that rule and should not have more tax applied. As i understood it this only applied to silver coins. Platinum should be taxed at the full rate when it is imported into the EU and have the full rate of VAT when it is sold inside the EU - 19% in Germany and for example 21% in Spain.

Now we come to the issue of 'collector' coins. What are collector coins? Have the German authorities defined these. All the coins are sold with large premiums over spot - even by GS.be. People collect these coins - TSF is all about collecting coins. Do the German authorities mean numismatic coins? There is dispute about what numismatic coins are - the EU commodity code doesn't state a numismatic coin should have a certain age. It doesn't state the premium must be of a certain size. Someone might say there is case law stating these things. 

EU countries are going bankrupt, they will try every which way to raise more money from their citizens.

 

"Collector" coins are defined by the authorities about the price, must be 250% above spot. Platinum and Silver has/had full 19% VAT. Until 2014 silver coins had 7%, since than 19% VAT. Since 2014 dealers could use margin scheme for silver coins. Every dealer in Germany reclaimed the import VAT and used the margin scheme for all silver coins. Private buyers had to pay since 2014 always 19% import VAT for any silver coin, medal, or bar, except collector coins.  

Edited October 8, 2022 by dikefalos

[sixgun]

15 minutes ago, dikefalos said:

Every dealer in Germany reclaimed the import VAT and used the margin scheme for all silver coins. Private buyers had to pay since 2014 always 19% import VAT for any silver coin, medal, or bar, except collector coins.  

Well the dealers shouldn't have been reclaiming the import VAT. If they don't reclaim the import VAT they can sell the coins as second hand. There is VAT in the price of the coin when it is sold. Only VAT is charged on the dealer's profit.
Anyway whatever they have been doing looks like it is coming to an end. 

[sixgun]

3 hours ago, midasjohn said:

As long as the derivatives market exists, all precious metals prices will never reflect their fair value. I think in a Digital World precious metals have completely ceased to be money of any type or likelihood. 

As for those who suggest that Electricity/Internet will one day fail - I doubt there will be any people left to trade anything - so that's a moot point.

Barter never existed in any recorded civilisation. Money arises with civilisations' arrival. 

Digital Killed The Precious Metals Star ⭐ 

Well this was the case until a few years ago. Over the last decade China et al have been draining the West of precious metal. Many thousands of tonnes have left via Switzerland where gold is refined into 1 kilo bar which the Chinese like. If China and Russia laid out all the gold they had that would be game over. They don't b/c China can squeeze a little bit more so they do.
The derivative market works as long as there is enough suitably priced physical to keep it going. It cannot work without some physical.

The vast majority of contracts are simply bets on the price, bets on a dot on a screen. There is never any intention or capability to deliver or take delivery. However a few do stand for delivery and they are big enough, experienced enough, know the system well enough to get the metal out of the system. COMEX longs will usually get booted over to London where a deal is thrashed out - they might take cash, they might take physical but we can't know b/c it is all private deals we never see. When there isn't the physical at anywhere near the paper price to settle deals with the few who demand delivery then there is a BIG problem. China doesn't get the physical - she has no reason to allow the charade to continue - it's game over. More and more precious metal exchanges are being established. Russia was the latest and has the Moscow World Standard. BRICS has proposed (code for already decided) a commodity currency which it is said will have gold - oil - silver as the top three components. The West will ignore and rubbish all this but they have to do this b/c this is going to kill the dollar and collapse the Empire.

We have exchanges already running - i am part of Kinesis - it started in 2018 and is really picking up steam now. It has been noticed across the precious metal world. Peter Schiff was asked about Kinesis in a very recent video and said it was the best of a number of precious metal currency systems now available. i personally know quite a lot of people who have used they vaulted gold and silver to buy stuff in regular shops and online. The virtual debit card is being trialled right now and is approaching completion of the beta testing. Gold and silver are converted on the fly into a variety of currencies. The shopkeeper doesn't even realise. 

 

Asset backed crypto is the future - so in reality digital has brought gold and silver to life rather than killed them off.

Edited October 8, 2022 by sixgun

[LawrenceChard]

22 hours ago, Mothballjim said:

Silver price predictions.

What do you guys think the silver price will be in the next couple of years. Will it break through the £20 barrier soon?

I personally think it will be £50 an ounce in the next 5 years with the way things our going and the more informed people are becoming regarding the shambles of a monetary system we have. 

I predict that people are going to be asking exactly the same, or very similar questions, next week...

Next month...

Next year...

just like they were doing last week...

Last month...

Last year...

😎

[SidS]

11 minutes ago, LawrenceChard said:

I predict that people are going to be asking exactly the same, or very similar questions, next week...

Next month...

Next year...

just like they were doing last week...

Last month...

Last year...

😎

True, I remember back in 2004 - silver would hit $50 an ounce and the dollar would be dead by 2010.

[sixgun]

i also read from Andrew Maguire today that energy intensive silver refining has been completely shut down in Europe. The price of silver barely covers the cost of production - so jack up the price of energy and there's no point in refining silver, no to mention actual energy caps - so even if the price is right work is stopped - so much for Standing with Ukraine. Switzerland is the biggest new bar silver hub in the world - the big refiners are there. Switzerland shut down from March 2020 when COVID kicked off - as a result the silver market broke - it almost totally broke down. Several second tier banks lost $millions and pulled out of the market (forever) and the silver paper price went haywire. It collapsed to $11 something and then rocketed up to almost $30. What happens in the physical market has consequences. i have heard from several sources that the market is as tight as it was in 2008. Now lay on refiners on a go slow. The physical shortages will become mission critical soon. Then lay on the BoE starting QE to save the Gilt market - this will spill over into Europe and the rest of the world. Despite Fed speakers blabbering on about QT and no pivot - the clever money knows it will pivot which will light the blue touch paper.

Edited October 8, 2022 by sixgun

[Zeuk]

I saw some guy on youtube saying that silver will hit 500$ an ounce next year, i'd imagine he's only out by 480$ give or take but im hopeful.

 

[sixgun]

13 minutes ago, Zeuk said:

I saw some guy on youtube saying that silver will hit 500$ an ounce next year, i'd imagine he's only out by 480$ give or take but im hopeful.

 

At some point silver will be $500 an ounce. From Uchiki's Kinesis video with the florins in his local shop we can see £1 of 50% silver florins has £36.60 of silver in them (up from £30 when he only recently did the video). https://www.silverrecyclers.com/Calculators/gbcoin_calculator.aspx

These $500 silver by Christmas or next summer or something similar are clueless monkeys - it is click bait. i used to watch these videos and realised they were simply pulling numbers and dates out of their ar$es.  

The physical market is tight and active.

Edited October 8, 2022 by sixgun

[Groundup]

9 hours ago, midasjohn said:

As long as the derivatives market exists, all precious metals prices will never reflect their fair value. I think in a Digital World precious metals have completely ceased to be money of any type or likelihood. 

As for those who suggest that Electricity/Internet will one day fail - I doubt there will be any people left to trade anything - so that's a moot point.

Barter never existed in any recorded civilisation. Money arises with civilisations' arrival. 

Digital Killed The Precious Metals Star ⭐ 

My price prediction for Ag is higher than it is currently...

My son just converted the last of their BTC into Ag through Kinesis.. Quick, simple and secure.

I'll go out on a limb and say probably one of the tightest spreads out there for $ per Oz.. When the virtual debit card Beta test is complete he'll be able to buy goods and services too.... I'll receive a cut (yield) through refering him and he'll receive a cut (yield) for holding or spending..... What's not to like....

Edited October 9, 2022 by Groundup

[gji25]

i predict and i am in no way a financial expert, that silver in november 2023 will be roughly £23 per troy ounce spot

[James32]

8 minutes ago, gji25 said:

i predict and i am in no way a financial expert, that silver in november 2023 will be roughly £23 per troy ounce spot

Will it be £24 per oz in Nov 24?

 

[Zeuk]

6 minutes ago, James32 said:

Will it be £24 per oz in Nov 24?

 

I'll have a nice KG bar for sale if it does, will likely have a hefty premium though

[Bigmarc]

This is an article I was reading this morning, could have some effect on the market. 

https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/lme-launches-discussion-paper-possibility-banning-russian-metal-2022-10-06/ 

If this was to happen then according to Wikipedia, Russia is the 4 largest producer in the world. 

[FriedrichVonHayek]

I don't care what the price of Silver is as I am more concerned with the Gold/Silver ratio.

I will look at swapping a tiny bit at 70 then we shall see from there.

[Bullioninvester]

On 07/10/2022 at 21:29, Mothballjim said:

 

What do you guys think the silver price will be in the next couple of years. Will it break through the £20 barrier soon?

I personally think it will be £50 an ounce in the next 5 years with the way things our going and the more informed people are becoming regarding the shambles of a monetary system we have. 

Great topic and expertly worded.