Realwealthuprising

37 minutes ago, pablitto83 said:

Well, I am Polish. But after 10yrs in UK, and being back justba few times since, I can tell you that I would not find myself back there.. s**** wages ( tell someone u need £2k for a family of 5 for normal living, without new car, holidays abroad and any fancy stuff), and you will be calle ld a buffon. Free of tax amount not changed for many years- around £600 a year. Minimum wage - around £320 a MONTH. Yeah, cost of living is lver, but not as much. I'd say electronic, clothing is more expensive. Food a bit cheaper. Vat-23% ( with new rules about that, research about split vat). Mentality- if you are smiling- uou have to be either drunk, on drugs or mental health issue. If you ask in UK - how are you- it's always-fine. In Poland- even you just won on lottery-it's always s****. Mum works in a hospital for years. Her wage is around £400a month.. To get an £1000 a month - net- you need to be a hood manager in good business. People always have to find arounds the lw to make living, and each next government is just rising taxes, make more control etc. Aww, look at bureaucracy. I know as a fact that ppl working in government administration (hmrc, and all other bunch of bandits) not going to work to WORK.  When you try to sort out anything, you are the servant, who disturb the peace of drinking coffee and chit chat with froends, so you are treated as a pest.. Been in that position, I have friends wjo works with them - imagine working in administration and for the whole day do a 1  a4 page copy, and not bother about tons of documents.. Corruption never ended after 89', just got worst- politicians have a monopol on bribery, stealing, and all wrong doing you can imagine.And when it comes public, nothing happens.. It is why I am not planning to go back there..

Its interesting to hear this view because as a Brit I much prefer Poland. I know some Poles in the UK feel the same and then also many who desperately wish to go back but have UK partners or jobs making it difficult.

1 hour ago, Stacktastic said:

Interesting you say Poland as we own a house there with several acres of land
Just a shame my Grandmother(in law) lives there LOL. 96 YO and built to easily live to 110!! 
Plus my mother in laws very nice converted farm (ie completely insular buildings - its like a castle as the gates are solid steel etc. But its super private. 

This is very subjective & only based on my very limited times in Poland.

I agree with a lot of what you have said, I have been going to Poland for over 15 years now and have seen the changes happening. 
I have always seen it as a great place to invest in property, but this is getting harder now. 
The main benefit of Poland is it has a great agri business, which always does well in bad times, especially inflation. 
the people are already primed for communism & naturally can be very secretive & wont stand for it. 
However they dont ask questions and are very easily manipulated. 
There is a lot of false people from what I see. They will say one thing to your face and rat you out. Not ideal. 
However they can also be very kind and friendly when you know them.
They are also resourceful & know how to live/eat healthily on a budget (until Mcdonalds took hold that is). 

The one problem I have with Poland is its land locked (as you have said), but you can escape easily. 
There is very little ability to make decent money as no one wants you to do well. Jobs are very hard, but I guess you can work online?
They still have a very communist mentality, but this is dying out. Some of the things I have seen is mental behaviour!
The government is very corrupt all the way to the local level - this is getting better though. 

The Catholic church still have a huge stronghold, own a lot of the property & a high level of control (trust me I have witnessed this first hand at bishop level). At the moment the church has made abortion illegal (for example). They have had huge riots because of it during the lockdown so thats a good thing I guess? 

The police are thieves and there is a lot of corruption. They are also very hard ass (like the civil guards in Spain can be).
I prefer the over weight out of shape bodies that cant even call someone white or black to describe what they look like  without it making the papers
Its slap bang next to the Russian countries. Putin was lining up the tanks about 100 miles away when i was there.
On the other side is Germany and I strongly believe the Fourth Reich is alive and well, with thanks to Martin Boorman. 

There are tons of countries that are VISA free and many of them are 190 days which is good. 
If I had the choice today I would choose New Zealand for work, safety (all those mountains!), location, but its flipping miles away! 
https://visaguide.world/tips/countries-uk-citizens-can-visit-visa-free/ 

If you are rich it makes life a lot easier. Bermuda would be good LOL. 
 

You will be on Neil Macoy wards watcher numbers with stuff like that. Americans are all aware of Brexit too so the traffic should be good! 

I think the ability to move between the UK and Poland is a great failsafe and a farm is my own plan also. I agree with what you said about Polands downsides too, well, my wife tells me some of these things and others I learn from being here (we are here atm). My parents in law have many traits of those who lived through great scarcity/ communism....its similar to how my grandparents who were children in ww2 were only even more pronounced.

My wife has a dual nationality and I am a resident of Poland. For you to have your EU citizenship I think thats a definite safeguard in these worrying decades ahead. Its an option at least and you already have a place to go.

Like you id prefer the wilderness of New Zealand, maybe Finland or Alaska, but alas family is important also. At least an EU passport still gets you access to many countries for safety although the deconstruction of freedom of movement is ahead of us imo, they will want capital controls as this thing unwinds and I think they'll do it the old fashioned way probably under the guise of ‚health’.

1 hour ago, Stacktastic said:

Im not sure Europe will do that well TBH - where would you suggest out of interest? 
I dont mind the UK as its got a strong hold on global finance & a good military. 

Depending on means you can get (read purchase!) second passports for lots of smaller island nations which are options for people who want a get out of dodge card.

Outside of this, realistically, Europe is or should I say ‘was’ the most feasable option. 

Theres not much I like about the EU over Britain per se in terms of their power structure and crazy currency experiment but on the other hand for the little people like us, to escape government tyranny if we need to, theres advantages to not been ‘locked in’ in a country like Britain. Now Brits have lost freedom of movement it creates a real sense that everyone has been trapped into the socialist dystopia they are ushering in.

I only see massive state control and the white/ native population being thrown onto the sacrificial pyre. We all know this has began and is set to intensify in the coming years. Nobody cares about whitey and they want him or her silenced. Psychologically thats no way to live.

So back to Europe, I like the eastern countries. For me I like Poland for many reasons. (I know Poles would seriously frown on me calling their country Eastern Europe so ill say central-eastern 😂)

Economically they stand out. For a start they are not in the Euro so have control of their currency.

They only have a debt to GDP ratio of around 50% which is tiny to the rest of the EU and western economies.

They are still growing and will benefit even more now Britain has left the EU. Importantly despite this years corona madness and the debt explosion Poland has took a much smaller hit relative to other EU countries. So they have lots of capacity for more growth in the coming decade and increasing the standard of living for its citizens.

Also employment oppertunities are high, they had to bring in millions of Ukrainians these past few years because they didnt have enough Polish workers. Its also a great place for entrepreneurs as its well placed in Europe for access to wealthy countries like Germany.

A big one....SAFETY!

They rejected mass immigration from non EU countries and have had zero terrorism events.

They are a very proud nation who care strongly about retaining their sovereignty. Hence why they are one of the only large EU countries to out and out reject the far left takeover. No 10000 pronouns or hate speech laws or critical race theory, they simply reject it.  

So at present is a very safe country and has far less flashpoints for the marxists to exploit. In my experience they are tolerant people but also predominantly ethnically Polish meaning the cultural uprisings we see in the west have much less tinder to ignite it.

Another benefit is cost of living, its still very cheap to live in Poland and even poorer people usually have their own house and maybe some land. They also have some of the cheapest food prices in Europe. A lot is homegrown too meaning food security and less chance of future shortages.

Of course there are risks too, Poland was wiped off the map for hundreds of years, multiple times...geographically it is vulnerable defence wise. The EU spew out lots of propaganda against Poland too so they are creating a potential future situation in which the rest of the EU turn against them again. Violently? Not on the near horizon but perhaps one day if we did see a new world war.

Water shortages is an issue longer term.

Also demographics. But thats a shared issue. Anyways Ive rambled on too long. Just some thoughts. My other pick would be Estonia but thats for another day 😆

17 minutes ago, Stacktastic said:

I feel we are tied to the USA, getting out was possibly no fluke as this year and subsequent years of QE will potentially lead to some VERY serious socio-political goings on in the next few years. I know my opinion will be mixed, but I think this has all been planned years ago. 
 

I don’t want to be on the war mongering socio-path of side, but living on a positive side during a war is not a bad thing personally as my family won’t get murdered (worse case scenario I know, but this is not normal) a civil war in the USA (for example) could create serious problems!! The energy is there that’s for sure!! There seems to be a lot more types of war fare now and it’s getting easier, cyber for example. Control of free speech has really shocked me to the core this year!

 I think we all understand the macro economic situation at the moment and going forward, ignoring physical there are going to be some serious gains to be made on the miners, ETF’s and people that bought silver in panic and need the cash back, so for now at least I’m personally reducing physical and looking at stocks & uk based second hand traders. 🙂

the emerging nations will rule in time as the US empire crumbles (assuming the tech/info Rev does not have an advantage). 
 

as they say Rome did not fall in a day, I think this is one of those moments. 

Its definitely the start of the end, but it could take another 100 or more years to be fully the end.

The US has a very strong military so they can extend themselves as a power in a number of ways, for the most part it will be to the great suffering of the American people and those of any nation aligned with them. 

Sadly the UK will be even more of a vassal state moving forwards, as part of Americas empire (along with Australia and Canada).

Each country has long since shown that by fostering discontent among societal groups by allowing identity politics and the far left to hold the narrative they can increase their own power and build the modern day technological-totalitarian empire.

The far left are just the useful idiots they are using to usher it in. As we saw this year, they are masters of propaganda and manipulation of the mass consciousness. Those who are awake and dissent will be crushed.

It makes sense strategically if you can think like a mad man who doesn’t care about the population. In a civilisation decline you need much more control because social unrest will be high.

You need people to be psychologically damaged and manipulated so they remain disoriented and blind to their real threat, the massive threat, which is the government! 

We will see all the narratives coalesce eventually, the surveillance state, the biomedical interventions and restrictions, the hate speech laws that ban or outright criminalise those who oppose. Basically its all building to, well, totalitarianism in a modern form.

My advice is terrible to be honest, as it is to leave the UK. Its a floating prison. If you can’t then do your best to not be caught up in the mental warfare of the government, the maddened crowds, the in-fighting between different social groups, the forced ‘safety’ measures...and try to be as independent as you can financially and practically.

Apologies for my pessimism, ill end with a Ho! Ho! Ho! and a 😘

21 minutes ago, billysilver said:

Agreed, if you were an alien you would see it as such because it is the case. I went to the dentist couple months back and he is a South African and during conversation regarding The Boer War, The British and World perception of us I asked, did he see us as a "free democracy" or a socialist/communist state? He saw the country as socialist. We are certainly not as "free" as we are led to believe.

England is so done, all thats left are the few remaining crumbs of a democracy.

Now it becomes something new. It will be great if your a neo marxist environmentalist who doesn’t want to work and hates free speech, free movement and logic....but for the rest of Britain it will be a survaillance state dystopia in which all aspects of life are dictated by the state. 2021 post brexit and under the guise of covid it will be ramped up big style, there is no escape now and I think history will increasingly come see that Brexit served not to keep others out but to trap Brits in during this phase of history.

With public debt levels were they are and even worse will be come 2021-2022 after the next god knows how many waves of mmt, I think labour or tory, they’ll tax everything they can think of. 

I wouldn’t be surpised if gold was taxed in the future, it would do two favours for government as it would steal money from investors which will be there goal, and it will be a way of coaxing people from divesting from £££’s

10 minutes ago, Numistacker said:

It looks like there were 4 bidders.. a big big dealer bid £5,000 then a new bidder with 0 feedback went into the ring then two others joined both outbidding each other and going for bids near the previous selling prices. One had 72 feedback and one a dealer probably with 4550 feedback.  ebay generated lots of automatic bids as each time 72 feedback bidder bid 

The winners early bid on 6th Jan was eventually eclipsed by bidder with 72 

They both carried on outbidding each other and eventually the dealer made a final bid over and above his previous top bid of presumably a much higher amount to ensure he was not eclipsed at the last. The 0 feedback bidder was only there in the game very early? Does this look like shill bidding? well if it was then the bidder at 72 was the shill and playing a VERY risky game by bidding so high. It looks to me like both parties really wanted to buy this coin.

 

Corrected on the 0 feedback looks like all the automatic bids were the other bidder. I think if its legit we would see feedback on it fairly soon. The seller had another una for sale but that and all his other auction items disappeared today....either he flush with cash or flush with embarrassment having seen this thread on silver forum uncovering his antics 😅

38 minutes ago, Numistacker said:

You said it was suspicious that the bidding went from £6k to £13k or more in a couple of minutes

I was mentioning that there was a bid of 5k then 6k and then a Zero feedback buyer who took it immediately 19k. It was this that looked suspicious. My comment wasn’t to do with the assumed value of the coin however or the fact someone bidded so much. I think anyone who uses ebay knows it is often a sign of something dodgy for a zero feedback buyer to turn up within hours of a listing and bid something really high, in this case especially weird with it been an obscure coin that people are selling for the first time. A dealer would likely not be a zero feedback customer on ebay.

Thats all people were questioning I dont think anyone besides the guy in the video was talking about the worth of the coin and it wasn’t the focus of the recent comments, it was the above.

People taking an interest in the price of a new coin and recognising a lot of dodgy bidding isn't envy. Some of the people commenting on the fishy goings on actually own the coin so it cant be assumed everyone is envious.

Its also not disbelief it could sell for £20000, not for me anyways. Thats actually why im surprised theres been this kind of thing. I understand why someone who owns the coin might not want any criticism at all of an auction with a high sale price even when it was shill bidded greatly because they worry it might effect their own sale...but its a bit disingenuous to criticise others who mention it. The discussion cannot be only mention good things. If you own the coin there is no reason to be so defensive the coin is clearly going to be a great profit, unless its your auction then why worry that there are people highlighting dodgy bidding on a coin thread about that coin. The discussion turned to looking at the auctions and that was what happened and was why it was discussed.

36 minutes ago, kimchi said:

The very unwelcome element for me here is that this coin doesn't need it. I don't have one so have absolutely nothing to gain or lose.

I agree with this, its greed that pushes some owners to do those things and this coin certainly doesn’t need it. The owners have won already and will surely make a profit beyond what they hoped for originally, to try and manipulate it beyond that is not playing by the Queensbury rules 🧐

5 minutes ago, Paul said:

Yup fishier than a Trawlerman Mans Lobster pot that auction last night

😂

27 minutes ago, Frenchie said:

I have seen that video on youtube. What do you think ? 

 

The winning bid on this last one was the same buyer as a previous ebay luna of £20000 which is strange.

It could be one buyer deciding to buy these coins or taking into account the suspicious ebay activity its possible  a few owners have made an agreement to work together to pump the price. 
 

The gold one that sold on ebay had lots of red flags.

It had three bidders on the first day of the auction all within a very short space of time of each other and one had zero feedback.....and it was this account that bidded 19k after the bid of 6k.

The bidding went something like this 5k, 6k,, 19k.....and so whilst it had 43 bids they were nearly all automatic ones stemming from the account with zero feedback.

Usual red flags...zero feedback account involved, lots of automatic bids from one account, bidding activity all within a short space of time from a small number of accounts and then none...

Because most of the auction looks to be fabricated by shill bidding id not trust the selling price on that one.

4 hours ago, vand said:

The fear of investing all your money on the day the market peaks is always a concern. As I say, if you can't stomach a 60% drop in your portfolio then your portfolio should not be 100% stock market and why you need to decide on your asset allocation strategy.

However, I will also address some further points:

 

- While it is understandable that you do not want a big drop in your portfolio, if you are continually employed through the bear market and continually accumulating units while the market is depressed then ultimately this benefits you.  The Millenial who is afraid of sticking all their money into the market and is instead sitting in cash is better served by sticking 50% of their income into the market each month through thick and think when the SHTF rather than piling up more and more cash.  I think it's OK to keep some cash on the sides to take advantage of a crash. Berkshire Hathaway has $120bn on the sidelines, but more importantly that is only a fraction of how much they still have invested (and I'm sure that would be so even if liquidity wasn't an issue).

- Valuations are not useful for determining short term market tops (1-3 years). While there is roughly a 50% correlation in 10-15yr returns, stocks could easily go up another 20%, 30%, 50%. Anything is possible. The peak to trough rise in this bull market is, so far, well within the sort of % range than other bull markets have experienced.

- Lastly, there is still value to be had out there. FTSE100's PE is only 14 and is yielding 4.5%.  China is cheap. Emerging markets are nothing like a bubble. The US markets are undoubtedly expensive, but you can and should look elsewhere if you don't feel like paying those sort of valuations. 

 

Its not just valuations been too high, as I mentioned, I dont feel high valuations alone are not the problem. The problem is the point we are at in the credit cycle in relation to them. We are seeing global growth slowing significantly and the limits of easy credit fast approaching. Nearly all of the growth since 2008 has been driven by China and their slowing is a problem for everyone.

The recovery seen in the US was mostly an illusion given it was fuelled by debt used to fund share buybacks.

Lets just assume for a second that people like Ray Dalio and Buffet and Howard Marks are correct and we listen to them, given they are the experts in terms of the business cycle and how to navigate it. 

By their own estimations all of them have expressed that the business cycle is reaching its limits of credit fuelled growth and there is not far to go before this cycle comes to an end. This stagnation in growth will bring the global economy into recession if indeed we are not there right now given recent manufacturing data shows we are close if not already there depending in were you look.

This stagnation of growth whether that be in America, China or Europe or all combined will effect the entire world, especially emerging markets. If like in 2009 a dollar shortage is a part of the next crisis and given the recent repo market blow up which forced the fed to begin the money printing to inject emergency liquidity into the system it almost certainly will be, the emerging markets will suffer more than anyone.

If you believe those I mentioned are wrong however and can figure out a way that the world can reverse this slow down and then continue to grow whilst also absorbing higher levels of debt... then equities could be justified at any level.

Valuations are not relevant if the global economy can simply keep expanding forever. History suggests it cannot however and at some point a threshold is hit and we have to try and measure that somehow.

Beyond equities however what asset classes do you suggest right now as been viable to invest in given the current market conditions and a global finacial crisis potentially on the horizon?

If you think a diversification strategy can protect and profit during a financial crisis what approach do we take?

A good test of any supposed diversified strategy is to simply look at how your overall portfolio held up in the last quarter of 2018.

Unfortunately lots of people believe they are diversified only to find in a downturn like the fourth quarter of 2018 or like the GFC in 2008 most of their diversified asset classes all of a sudden become correlated and are pointing the same direction....down. Most people are diversified in name but not in nature and everything they hold behaves just like an equity in a crisis. To give and example  REIT’s and Woodland ETF’s, some of the oft touted supposed ‘diversifiers’, all sufferred heavy losses in the last major downturn. They were all highly correlated to equities.

If you have a portfolio of truely non equity like assets that can help one survive a downturn however and also can suggest how we can easily invest in said assets, that would be genuinely useful to hear. 

Best wishes

M

5 hours ago, vand said:

Yes, I agree, but you can easily substitute at stock bond portfolio used in his example with a multi-asset portfolio and then backtest the portfolio and see how much risk it is offering with something like Sharpe ratio or other risk metrics. 

Again, just because bonds have gone up as far as the have doesn't mean that they're destined to crash this time next year.  Various asset classes don't necessarily have to behave the same as they have done in the past, but we model and plan using the data that is available to us.

That is why I say to decide on an AA strategy that you are comfortable with.. it can (and IMO should) ideally include stocks (both developed and emerging markets), bonds, PMs, commodities, and REITs/real-estate. Diversification is the only free lunch in investing.. take advantage of it, rather than trying to time the market.

Hey Vand, thanks for posting the article. I tend to agree that at most points in the business cycle its better to be invested then parked in cash, besides this point which in terms of valuations is a top. Not that this would be enough to stop me alone but paired with strong recession indicators and continued evidence of economic slowdown across the US, Europe and China, along with real bond yields offering only negative returns its collectively enough to put me mainly in cash outside my PM allocation.

Of course for experienced investors already well into their investing careers, and who have likely seen big gains in the past 10-20 years, they may be ready to stomach a big hit to the equities part of their portfolio and thats reasonable enough. For someone not yet invested in stocks however or who is still very early in their investment career now is not the time to be following cookie cutter allocation strategies based around diversification. Now is the time for history.

Lets not forget what market tops can do to a new portfolio. If for example you had invested in the FTSE 100 back in January 2000 in say a tracker, you took a 40% decline immediately the following year and remained in negative territory all the way through to 2008 at which point youd have gotten back to zero...big relief, for a few months as you would have then taken another 40% hit the very next year to spend another 5 years in the red. Thats 13 years of nothing but losses and zero profit and from 2013-2019 you’d have made at best 10-12%. So in 20 years you got 10%, a real loss in terms of inflation.

Now granted that is a more extreme example of the risks of the market (although it was for many people close to reality to some degree, particularly those whose pensions got batterred by 40-50% declines and then went nowhere for nearly 2 decades). Whilst diversification would have helped mitigate some losses it still holds true however that investing in assets like equities at this stage brings significant risk of real loss. And what about bonds? Well today the real yield on 10 yr’s is going to be negative for any country you’d trust buying the sovereign  debt of. Hardly appetitising.

Yes, in the stock market value always exists and so there are places to park some money that might remain fairly insulated in a major market downturn but id not want to be heavily invested. If past is prologue we have to appreciate there is more risk to the downside then upside. Just because a strategy works over a 20-40 year timespan it doesnt mean we are wise to advise everyone follow a formulaic approach at any point in the business cycle and enter the equities market, even defensively, when the market is close to peak valuations, the global economy is saturated in debt, and growth has been slowing across the board.

At all times an investor in equities has to ask where is the growth going to come from that will propel the market higher? More debt at even lower interest rates? A surge in spending by the millennials who are also awash in debt? More deficit spending when goverments can barely service their current debts at such extreme lows in rates?

Its hard to answer the question positively in favour of forward growth in the current environment in my opinion without factoring in a big economic event to cleanse the system somewhat. There is very little space for expansion at present.

In closing there are huge oppertunities at a market bottom post crash and huge risks at a market top in the ear or two prior. By understanding the business cycle and where we are in it we are able to make the best decisions for the immediate future. 

Personally stocks at the minute make up about 5% of my portfolio. Precious metals 40% and the rest is sat in cash. Some of this is by default because it will be going into property/ farmland in europe next year but the rest is parked because of the aforementioned discussion points.

I know its old but for fun thought id pop in my humble opinion! Its good to share ideas we are all having to navigate the same stormy sea right now!

1) Ok, so you want to hold cash and wait for the crash. Then you can buy quality equities when its all doom and gloom and everyone is saying it can only get worse... when the market is seriously undervalued or in other words the opposite of were it is RIGHT now. There are cheap sectors atm such as oil and energy and the miners but personally id wait. In a crash and liquidity crisis like 2008 the whole thing will tank, even the precious metal miners although they will likely recover much quicker. No, far better to hold cash at current market valuations in my humble opinion and wait for the rare opportunity that only comes along once or twice in your life to get in at a huge discount. 

What you can do in the meantime is study. The last chance to get in the market in this way was mid 2009, if you bought then when everyone was fleeing the market you bought cheap and right about now you’d be taking hefty profits (on top of years of dividends).

2) Secondly...and obviously I hope...Precious metals. We are in a race to the bottom with central banks printing money and cheapening currency. Having a hedge against this is vital and also gold protects you in other unforseen crisis. Look at global debt and start to understand your monetary history and the case for precious metals being THE asset to own in the coming decade is very clear.

Particularly with bonds, housing and stocks all in a bubble, outside of cash precious metals are the only place id personally want to be atm. Unless of course you live outside of the UK, property and land markets in some European countries are still very cheap but these would not be viable for most UK investors.