KDave

What is the 80p target based on? I would not worry too much about fool articles, you can read 2 or 3 of them and get opposite opinions from each, then head to seeking alpha and get the same, then go on the silver forum.... opinions are everywhere. 
Like I say I need to have a look into the balance sheets and compare to its peers in the sector, that would be BAE and Boeing off the top of my head (defence/engineering), its something I will look at next year. You can't have everything there are often more opportunities than cash.

Today I bought some BP and Shell, I thought I wouldn't see anything as low as March again. Will double down if they go much lower. Had some Shell around 13.50 a few months ago, but I got a bad feeling and sold it at 13ish to buy gold instead, happy I did that. 
Rolls Royce also sucks right now! So I bought some ☺️
 

@KDave QE + banks tightening loan standards would be deflationary, that's what we have atm
QE removes dollars from the system and if banks aren't lending where are the new dollars coming from? mortgages and loans were deferred past few months so dollars that should have been destroyed repaying debt stayed in the system, that helped
If you have QE+ banks lending enough then there's no deflationary pressure. During 2009-2014 banks started lending again so there was no great deflationary pressure released 

RPI in 2014-16 was very low, ok it started creeping up but it was still lower than 2011 and lower even than 2007 before there was any QE
2016-19ish also had a very strong economy, everything on a macro level looked good, unemployed was down to the lowest it had been since 2007 and the velocity of money started to stabilise after falling for 9 years
It's reasonable there was a little inflation then and it was down to strong economy not just a delayed reaction to QE 
It's a debt based monetary system you need people working and taking out new debt to pay back the old debt+ some, just giving people money wont work for long

Deflationary pressure is winning out. It was spotted by the FED late 2019. September onwards they tried to introduce liquidity using the old fashioned QE, it was not enough despite what the season uptick says (Jan/Dec). In March Covid came along to exacerbate the problem and provide the opportunity to test injecting liquidity directly into the economy. This was done to stave off the deflationary effects of the government response to Covid only; the stimulus replaced what was lost (furlough, wages, etc). Replace what was lost and the problem you had before is still there, here we are. 
Deflation won't last if it occurs, because one of two things will happen; either we live through systemic collapse, or central banks conjure up more liquidity and get government to put it where it is needed.
I have listened to arguments that QE itself is deflationary and causes deflationary conditions. Its an interesting argument but for the reality that tightening does not cause inflation, so it can't be correct. For example - the FED stopped QE Jan 2015, RPI started a little bull run in the years after, does that mean the deflationary effects of QE stopped between 2015 - 2017 as the argument claims? That stopping QE started inflation? Does it not more likely tell us the inflationary effects took time to enter the system? Given the nature of the previous QE programs (and austerity). 2017 as another example - the FED started tightening mid 2017 - logically by the QE causes deflation argument, RPI should have rocketed up. All of that deflationary pressure being reversed by removing QE from the balance sheets, where were the calls for impending hyperinflation? But deflationary conditions came back, notice not straight away. So there is a lag in the effect of tightening (which is deflationary) and there is a lag in the effect of QE (which is inflationary). It takes time for liquidity to move through the system and that gives the leads and lags. Late 2019 the FED spotted the deflationary problem they had caused, and started increasing its balance sheets again in an attempt to increase liquidity the old fashioned way (2008 QE style). Fortunate that covid hit in march and they could test out the next generation QE, we will see a lot more of that. 
The calls for hyperinflation following the March 2020 version of QE - this was never the risk. Deflation was always the risk over the last 12 months, September 2019 onwards they started to respond. We will see inflation when the FED and central banks size their response properly yes, but not hyperinflation, in these conditions post covid it is impossible. The RPI chart tells you that more QE is coming (or a reset) and going from past performance that they will likely over do it as they did on the other end into late 2019 tightening for too long.
The RPI chart says there are leads and lags, and liquidity takes time to enter/show up in the system. 2016 - 2017 was 2015 FED's inflationary lag, 2018 - 2019 was 2017 FED's deflationary lag. Direct into the economy is the only option now to avoid as much lag as possible, so we will see a lot more of that imo. Government will be spending it, central banks will be facilitating it. 

This is how I think about it (not advice); See an opportunity long term. Establish how much exposure you want in this long term opportunity. Offset the risk associated with short term timing by using cost averaging and setting aside cash for targets to the downside. Now most of the negative emotion has been removed from process and watching prices fall becomes something to celebrate, sitting on a paper loss becomes easy. Sure you can think "if only I waited I would have more shares" but if it went up you would be thinking the opposite, the process is a timing risk/reward trade off. Any movements to the downside are no longer something to worry about. With dividend payers its even easier - you are paid to wait for the expected outcome and increase cashflow throughout the process. 
Of course I could be wrong and everyone else right on oil. That is why the first thing to do is establish how much exposure you want and work from there, I have hit my 2020 targets now. If we see further downside I will consider buying some of next years allocation early, otherwise I aim to be back on the metals next week, especially silver.  
The more articles come out hammering oil, the stronger the thesis 

Buying BP at 25 year lows what is not to like. The downside is possible, risk of further downside vs reward of potential upside, you make the call, you know what I think. Always a chance they go bust of course, tentative is definitely appropriate with share picking in a contrarian/hated sector. If it was easy all the monkeys would be doing it. 
Returning to normal will not happen for a while yet, logically the 'Conservatives' (Stalinists with a 9 year plan) will want to see out winter first, with flu season on its way and a population with weak immunity due to being separated from each other all year. It will likely be the worst flu season we have seen for a long time, plus corona virus on top. After that, maybe the Stanlists in charge will let us back out of our prison cells, I don't think people will put up with it for another year. Account also for all the horror stories coming out from hospitals regarding euthanasia, critical race theory reintroduced into society by BLM, all the job losses that are coming, inflation, higher energy bills, etc - unrest will start to bubble over. They can't keep us locked down forever or we will see another poll tax riots equivalent and likely worse. 
For oil supply is as much a part of the picture as demand, supply has cratered and inventories are being burned through a lot faster than expected. However ideally I would want to see oil fall below $40 again for a while to reap the best long term gains, flush out the rest of the fracking companies and the smaller players, then the majors can cherry pick the best assets and after that cut capex as no new entrants will be coming into the market for years. They will have huge cashflow in a couple of years time which they will use to pay down debt, spin off dividends and share buy backs. BP should return roughly 20% compounding per year between dividends and share buy backs (6% yield + 15% of cash into buybacks as announced).

Returning to normal is taking a lot longer that I'd hoped. 3 weeks they said... Now we're into a second wave (or so they claim, personally I am very suspicious about the numbers) and can't help but feel a conspiracy theory atmosphere in the air like it's all to do with stopping Brexit and replacing Donald Trump and desensitizing us into living in a less free world. This is not the same world we were living in 1 year ago.
But I am hopeful (if that's the right word) that oil is still going to be the big thing for decades to come. I've started putting some cash into Shell and BP on Trading 212 (about £700). Maybe I should be using a different platform.. I don't really know much but Trading 212 is the only one I've used so far. Gotta start somewhere though.

I agree with this 100% - my thoughts exactly. 
 
 
You are not wrong there & I can't understand why people are not questioning what is happening and the idiot rules that are being made (like wearing masks weeks after lockdown & all the stupid stories that have come out 'a scientist said this so it must be true', not to mention the complete s**** computer models of the spread of this (same people that modelled another ice age about now LOL). With regards to the numbers, you only have to put things into perspective and look at official world death figures to see that its largely just people that would have died normally.

40k people is very little (out of 75,000,000 in the UK), when you consider 450,000 die A DAY on average in the world! I never realised how few people do not rely upon the media & use common sense / critical thinking - its very scary actually. my father is an educated middle class man, he was calling chinese people, yellow slant eyed bastards yesterday (the bat story). Sorry if thats offensive to anyone, but it made me feel sick, so just demonstrating the above! He seems to think that as he watches Aldgezera that its the truth. If he thinks like that i hate to think how easy it is to control the mindset of other people less privileged than him  

I don't have any answers & I don't actually think the government knows 50% of whats going on (its much higher up than that), but I recon they are continuing the fear factor and padding themselves out for the next flu season i think, although they might have another mini lockdown soon. I just wish they gave all the sheep the vaccine and I can carry on with my life (assuming they all don't die from it that is as that's what killed most the people in the Spanish flu!).

With regards to electric vehicles & based on the above comment from myself, we are now apparently in the 4th industrial revolution, which include plans for humans being upgraded using tech not to mention the digital tattoo thing. These are a few observations of whats happened this year in my area, where as far as I am aware no one has died (40k people or so). To shut down the whole economy is highly suspicious on its own!

- getting people used to being at home
- giving people free 'money' and relying on the goverment
- killing off local small businesses, especially food & beverages & the events/entertainment industry. 
- making people abide by the rules and enforcing it with threats
- Fear of an unknown entity, a bit like religious fear mongering (oh you could be carrying it, maybe not)
- splitting up social gatherings & creating social distrust of others. 
- Antisemitism & a common enemy (bats & chinese people - come on!). 
- Making people fearful of touching anyone else, with distancing - we are social animals after all. 
- movement from physical money to a digital currency of some sort by encouraging more contactless
- constantly changing the rules & adding/chancing things to the story (it reads like a book to me)

And so on. 

If this is actually manufactured (I don't know either way) & I was in control of this, I would see great benefit with electric self driving cars as you can tell where everyone is at any time, you could stop & control the car remotely (ie from a police car), you could shut down all cars in any specific area (ie Birmingham) & even monitor peoples private conversations or body vitals. If this is a thing and we are very quickly moving into a robotic mechanised world, then I dont think its a far cry to suggest that governments may gift each house hold with a grant of some sort, including bringing back solar technology? After all money is just a concept & they can always get it back in road tax or taxing the electric companies, possibly doing even better than they do with fuel tax?

On the flip side, if everyone is at home, car use (and more importantly fuel consumption) might halve in the space of a few years. Just playing devils advocate here as BP in particular is the deal of the century this week.

 

Its not going to happen smoothly in the timeframes that government wants, it will take drastic measures to implement and have far reaching consequences to our standard of living and the competitiveness of the UK economy. The initial target was 2050 all electric, reasonable, if unlikely, now they have said they will stop people buying conventional vehicles from 2030! All electric by 2030 is insane, 9 years from now there will be no conventional vehicles on the roads only electric? The only way to achieve that is with huge subsidies for electric along with tyrannical measures, including the stick of financial penalties for using conventional, though some of the later is coming anyway in the form of higher oil prices. The economic cost will be enormous and we will price ourselves out of competition against non EV nations. Anything we do or produce will have the huge overhead of expensive transport/commute tagged on to the price, while other nations carry on with oil and undercut and enjoy a higher standard of living. Nothing about it is good for the UK or its people. Likely that is the reason they are doing it.  
The result of achieving this will be to take two thirds of the cars off the road, as you say, too expensive for 90% of people to buy - this will force most people to use mass transport or walk/bike everywhere. A huge drop in standard of living. Most people will not be buying and maintaining electric cars at the prices they will command when demand is 95% higher. The state will make driving something for the elite and well off (that's how they like it). This would solve the issue of congested roads and it would have far reaching economic repercussions; the covid economy is perhaps a good glimpse as to what it would look like. People working from home with the rest on a form of UBI (furlough), perhaps that is what covid has been about all along, getting people used to working from home, quiet roads and UBI. The artificial trigger needed for the test run reform of the economy. Regardless, unless they keep covid going for the next 9 years the 2030 goal is not happening, once things return to 'normal', people will not play ball until they are given incentive to do so and no one is going to deliberate hamstring themselves by increasing transport costs either personally or in business. How many white van men are going to hand over the LGV for an expensive electric equivalent? How many businesses are going to sell the fleet of cheap cars for the enormous capital and ongoing cost of an electric equivalent? How many people are willing to give up convivence of a diesel or petrol car for the privilege of monthly battery rental whether they drive it or not. 
This is just the UK. EV sales are only currently 2% of global car market. Oil is going no where soon from the big picture, it doesn't matter what action they take here. Also consider that China is the largest EV market in terms of take up in the world now, they also have the cheapest electricity costs in the world because they burn coal to produce it. They understand economics and that energy is everything, they also could care less about the climate nonsense as there is nothing 'green' about any of this EV stuff. As soon as you start digging you work it out pretty quickly and are left wondering why we are pushing this nonsense so hard to our detriment.

Fair value of a company is a judgement on many factors, assets and share price sure, but in this case that judgement heavily depends on where you think the oil price is going in the future. You know my opinion on inflation and what I think will happen to the oil price. For the companies I looked backwards based on last years financial reports on $64 oil, comparing annual reports and comparing metrics in order to rank them, Exxon came out top Shell second, Shell had the highest revenue of all the majors in 2019, largest company by assets, best return on capital employed, best return on assets, decent quick debt ratio, highest income before tax, but it has more debt than Exxon, less per share income, almost 4 times as much long term debt, etc. I am not too concerned about long term debt due to inflation expectations. BP is the worst of them based on last years performance, has the worst balance sheet regarding debt, etc, but has half the short term debt that Exxon had. I am not concerned about its debt, especially after the FED told us inflation is coming. That is looking backwards, looking forwards take that $64 oil and double it in 3 years, triple it in 5 years, etc. Q3 will be interesting to see how they are getting on, I expect they did quite well all things considered, as oil has averaged around $40 for most of the quarter. A lot has happened this quarter in regards to the noise around renewable electricity and hydrogen. Shell buying oil developments in Africa, these will not be producing oil for 5-7 years, this tells me they know they will still be an oil producer beyond that time frame despite all the noise. Shell and Microsoft partnering up. It won't be long until the market starts to see value, whether it is fair or not is a judgement call. 
Everyone thinks oil is dead. I have read several articles around this theme recently far in excess of the calls from 2015, even the oil companies themselves are at it (BP). Instead people have been investing in Tesla and equivalent thinking everyone is going to need electric vehicles and no oil. Sure people will need them, but they are not going to be lining up around the world to spend $60k on an electric car next year, maybe in 10 years when there might be a significant amount of electric vehicles on the road, but until then what are people going to need? Have we found a replacement for plastics? How high does the price of natural gas need to be for hydrogen to be viable? Who is positioning themselves now to provide that hydrogen and given the prices of conventional energy to support said hydrogen, what do they know? 
The market is still looking backwards thinking more of the same is coming in regards to the monetary conditions (wrong), then it is looking forwards 10 years in to the future and seeing it happening next year (wrong). We will see in time. At the moment I am not seeing many people calling to invest in oil, though I have had a couple of tentative emails from various subscriptions calling attention to a few of the companies. Won't be long.  

Fair value of a company is a judgement on many factors, assets and share price sure, but in this case that judgement heavily depends on where you think the oil price is going in the future. You know my opinion on inflation and what I think will happen to the oil price. For the companies I looked backwards based on last years financial reports on $64 oil, comparing annual reports and comparing metrics in order to rank them, Exxon came out top Shell second, Shell had the highest revenue of all the majors in 2019, largest company by assets, best return on capital employed, best return on assets, decent quick debt ratio, highest income before tax, but it has more debt than Exxon, less per share income, almost 4 times as much long term debt, etc. I am not too concerned about long term debt due to inflation expectations. BP is the worst of them based on last years performance, has the worst balance sheet regarding debt, etc, but has half the short term debt that Exxon had. I am not concerned about its debt, especially after the FED told us inflation is coming. That is looking backwards, looking forwards take that $64 oil and double it in 3 years, triple it in 5 years, etc. Q3 will be interesting to see how they are getting on, I expect they did quite well all things considered, as oil has averaged around $40 for most of the quarter. A lot has happened this quarter in regards to the noise around renewable electricity and hydrogen. Shell buying oil developments in Africa, these will not be producing oil for 5-7 years, this tells me they know they will still be an oil producer beyond that time frame despite all the noise. Shell and Microsoft partnering up. It won't be long until the market starts to see value, whether it is fair or not is a judgement call. 
Everyone thinks oil is dead. I have read several articles around this theme recently far in excess of the calls from 2015, even the oil companies themselves are at it (BP). Instead people have been investing in Tesla and equivalent thinking everyone is going to need electric vehicles and no oil. Sure people will need them, but they are not going to be lining up around the world to spend $60k on an electric car next year, maybe in 10 years when there might be a significant amount of electric vehicles on the road, but until then what are people going to need? Have we found a replacement for plastics? How high does the price of natural gas need to be for hydrogen to be viable? Who is positioning themselves now to provide that hydrogen and given the prices of conventional energy to support said hydrogen, what do they know? 
The market is still looking backwards thinking more of the same is coming in regards to the monetary conditions (wrong), then it is looking forwards 10 years in to the future and seeing it happening next year (wrong). We will see in time. At the moment I am not seeing many people calling to invest in oil, though I have had a couple of tentative emails from various subscriptions calling attention to a few of the companies. Won't be long.  

Fair value of a company is a judgement on many factors, assets and share price sure, but in this case that judgement heavily depends on where you think the oil price is going in the future. You know my opinion on inflation and what I think will happen to the oil price. For the companies I looked backwards based on last years financial reports on $64 oil, comparing annual reports and comparing metrics in order to rank them, Exxon came out top Shell second, Shell had the highest revenue of all the majors in 2019, largest company by assets, best return on capital employed, best return on assets, decent quick debt ratio, highest income before tax, but it has more debt than Exxon, less per share income, almost 4 times as much long term debt, etc. I am not too concerned about long term debt due to inflation expectations. BP is the worst of them based on last years performance, has the worst balance sheet regarding debt, etc, but has half the short term debt that Exxon had. I am not concerned about its debt, especially after the FED told us inflation is coming. That is looking backwards, looking forwards take that $64 oil and double it in 3 years, triple it in 5 years, etc. Q3 will be interesting to see how they are getting on, I expect they did quite well all things considered, as oil has averaged around $40 for most of the quarter. A lot has happened this quarter in regards to the noise around renewable electricity and hydrogen. Shell buying oil developments in Africa, these will not be producing oil for 5-7 years, this tells me they know they will still be an oil producer beyond that time frame despite all the noise. Shell and Microsoft partnering up. It won't be long until the market starts to see value, whether it is fair or not is a judgement call. 
Everyone thinks oil is dead. I have read several articles around this theme recently far in excess of the calls from 2015, even the oil companies themselves are at it (BP). Instead people have been investing in Tesla and equivalent thinking everyone is going to need electric vehicles and no oil. Sure people will need them, but they are not going to be lining up around the world to spend $60k on an electric car next year, maybe in 10 years when there might be a significant amount of electric vehicles on the road, but until then what are people going to need? Have we found a replacement for plastics? How high does the price of natural gas need to be for hydrogen to be viable? Who is positioning themselves now to provide that hydrogen and given the prices of conventional energy to support said hydrogen, what do they know? 
The market is still looking backwards thinking more of the same is coming in regards to the monetary conditions (wrong), then it is looking forwards 10 years in to the future and seeing it happening next year (wrong). We will see in time. At the moment I am not seeing many people calling to invest in oil, though I have had a couple of tentative emails from various subscriptions calling attention to a few of the companies. Won't be long.  

It lost that lower support
9.96 was the first price it clawed back upto after the March low, it lost that too
It came up to test it today, If it gets rejected  it will be interesting just how low it can go
How would you even work out the fair value of a company like shell atm? because it might say they have x amount of assets but if they tried to sell assets in the current market would they not get only a fraction of their worth. Not that they need to sell anything, just out of interest

If you can get the timing right then fair play I have not worked out how to trade the short term movements myself and stick to buying with longer term targets in mind. 
Sentiment is very low despite a higher average oil price over the last quarter and results coming soon, I don't know what people are thinking but you can almost taste the fear at these prices.
Yesterday I finally bought shell at 973, a triumph of sorts as I have been holding that money for months. I missed the lowest it got yesterday as I was not paying enough attention (at work). I also bought more BP at 237 and added Total (FP) to the oilies to go along with Repsol and prior to ex-dividend, decent yield on Total now. That is the last I will put in to oil this year (maybe) as I have been neglecting telecoms which are also still very cheap, hopefully they stay low for a bit longer and allow me to get in.
Those four appear to be attempting to set up and take as much share of the non existent hydrogen market as possible while they continue to produce oil and gas. All of these renewable electricity buys are being done in order to use it themselves, BP has gone heavy into it PR wise, though oil and gas will still be needed and at a much higher prices for hydrogen to be viable in regard to cost. Between them all they must know something. 

WTI is 8% lower today, shares are falling with it. I have the lows for shell at £9.44, hopefully we get there again before things turn around.

Learn then invest is the best way to do it, trying the other way around is expensive in my experience. Right now you have three choices, hold, sell or buy more. No one here can tell you because no one knows what's coming next. 

Not really sorry I have nothing that you would find useful for charting/timing it is a weak spot for me for sure. But I don't look at it like that, my foundation is based on a currently weak understanding of macro-economics and value investing. I keep an eye on the rig count purely for academic purposes, and I visit oilprice.com for obvious reasons, it has some good articles on there that gleam interesting insight now and again, a bit like gold-eagle.com has editorials about gold, most of it is noise. Rigcount will tell you a tiny bit about supply, but its only half the picture and so useless (academic), as for tankers and storage I have no idea, if I knew it wouldn't change my thesis, long term its noise. I know you can buy access to that information.
I say the oil price bottomed in April because of the monthly prices, look at this;
https://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=crude-oil&months=60
      May 2019 66.83 -2.55 % Jun 2019 59.76 -10.58 % Jul 2019 61.48 2.88 % Aug 2019 57.67 -6.20 % Sep 2019 60.04 4.11 % Oct 2019 57.27 -4.61 % Nov 2019 60.40 5.47 % Dec 2019 63.35 4.88 % Jan 2020 61.63 -2.72 % Feb 2020 53.35 -13.44 % Mar 2020 32.20 -39.64 % Apr 2020 21.04 -34.66 % May 2020 30.38 44.39 % Jun 2020 39.46 29.89 % Jul 2020 42.07 6.61 % You need to go back a very long time to see oil that low, even before the death of oil in 2015, it has bottomed imo. That doesn't mean that BP or Shell or any of them have bottomed though, share prices are 90% sentiment. The 30 year chart in that link is interesting. 

Learn then invest is the best way to do it, trying the other way around is expensive in my experience. Right now you have three choices, hold, sell or buy more. No one here can tell you because no one knows what's coming next. 

https://www.holdingschannel.com/all/stocks-held-by-sprott-inc/

There are a few uranium stocks that Sprott is holding as of this June 2020.

i will be visiting uranium stocks again one day but not today - as Rick Rule says it costs $50 a pound to produce but sells at $30. The cure for low prices is low prices.

The last time the market visited this situation, many miners went out of business, exploration fell off a cliff. There wasn't enough supply, so when demand exhausted the stockpiles, price exploded up - $billions were made in 100 bagger miners.
The same applies today - the world is running on the stockpile from the last boom. Stock piles are running down. As i said in past years on this forum with reference to silver, it is not a question of IF it is simply a matter of WHEN. The lights go out with no nuclear. The silver in an iphone is pennies but it is vital to the iphone. Plenty of room for price appreciation. The cost of uranium in a nuclear power plant is pennies - plenty of room for price appreciation.
See you again in a couple of years time.

If current level doesnt hold, next stop around 1895.

Big announcements in USA nation's debt now more than entire GDP of country, stocks hit and precious metals to. Headlines like this always cause turbulence. If you can't handle volitlity don't buy any silver lol

My investment thesis - Energy is leverage. A man can produce 1 unit using his labour. The same man can leverage his production with an electrically powered machine and do the work of 10 men in the same time. The cost of that leverage is important though. If he uses coal or gas produced leverage, he might pay 1 unit to produce that 10, net gain 9 units. If he uses wind or solar produced leverage, he might pay 7 units worth to produce 10, net gain 3 units.
Nuclear is somewhere between the two, lets say 3 units cost to 10 out. It is not as efficient as coal or gas, but it is reliable and it is cheap in terms of units put in, compared to renewable sources, which are expensive in terms of relative efficiency (units in vs out) and also in terms of reliability. Reliability is massively important for certain industries, we are so used to reliable power supply people have forgotten what its like without. Renewable does not provide that reliability or anywhere near the efficiency of leverage we are used to, but coal and gas are marked for death by the climate lobby. If renewable was reliable, it still costs a fortune to produce relative to fossil fuel, which means a huge cut in the cost of living from 9 units down to 3. It ain't going to happen. So what then do we invest in? Something between the two. Uranium. 
A nation that produces 10 units for every 3 put in will out compete a nation that puts 7 in to produce the same amount. When industrial output becomes the driving force of the economy again, these things will matter. And if coal and gas are off the table due to the politics, it will be the next most efficient form of reliable electricity that is used for production in order to be competitive - nuclear. Uranium as an investment then is a play on a host of things, politics, expected energy requirements due to reindustrialisation, etc.

Can't hurt to keep a couple of Oz tucked away in the bottom of the sock drawer.

In my opinion your timing and research is good, RDSB are the shares you want, dividend withholding tax on the RDSA ones. I have both companies among others in the sector, to me its a 100% no brainer although perhaps very contrarian at the moment given how much the market hates big oil. Its fashionable to hate them. I am very confident long term (mid 20's), short term I have no idea if we will get further downside or if it shoots up Monday, but be prepared to hold and accumulate through some rough times if oil breaks down again. The downside is limited imo. 
Dividends have been cut on BP by half (still a solid 5-6% dividend depending when you bought), and instead the board are planning to buy back shares using up to 15% of cashflow. The buy backs are discretionary so power has been taken from the shareholders (dividends) and put in the hands of the board, I still expect this to return and compound perhaps 20% per year including dividends over the decade. We will see. 
Shell have cut dividend by 2/3rds, way too far and too fast, I expect this to be raised once oil starts to recover if the board members want to keep their jobs. I expect similar returns over the decade from shell, they are a long term, potentially retirement hold given the dividend potential and position relative to LNG/Hydrogen.
These companies are looking forward at hydrogen production to meet the green agenda (or that is how its being sold), BP in particular, as hydrogen will be the green replacement for natural gas. I am told that gas engineering certificates now include hydrogen, existing infrastructure can be used to transport store and supply it for the most part. There are also geopoitical implications of being able to produce a nations own LNG equivalent (Europe no longer reliant on Russia). This will be renewable or conventional electricity (solar wind nuclear) being used to produce hydrogen, which in turn is used in the existing gas network throughout Europe. Green agenda achieved, strategic energy achieved. Although LNG is cheaper at the moment, these companies have the size and scale to change that over the coming years through investment and development.
As an aside Tesla looks like a shoeshine stock; I don't see anyone excited about oil and no one is talking about hydrogen, just saying. 
Not sure about cruise liners, those are a favourite Robinhood choice so I am staying away. I am looking at Agri shares for inflation (Mosaic, Nutrient, K+S), telecoms (BT.A, VOD, TEF) and infrastructure (DRAX, NG. SSE). I like the big FTSE listed mining shares too but they have gone up too much since march for my liking and are on the watch list. Waiting for a pullback. 

Apple is now worth more than the entire FTSE 100 constituents combined (according to its share price), and Tesla has a price to earnings that would mean you would have to wait almost a thousand years to get your money back from said earnings if you bought the company at today's share valuation. Make of that what you will.