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Piperscoins

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Posts posted by Piperscoins

  1. 3 hours ago, paulmerton said:

    Maybe next time RM should ship all 14,700 Sovereign sets to an Amazon Fulfillment Centre before putting them up for sale. They'd all be delivered the next day without any problems.

    Yeah right,  half would be left in the bin or thrown into the the neighbours garden never to be seen ever again!

  2. 19 minutes ago, Spanishsilver said:

    I’m sure coins of the realm were doing the 5 coin set the 3 coin set and  the sovereign and the half sovereign for pre order cheaper than the royal mint. Why wait for release day or are people waiting to see what they actually look like 

    Just checked there site i cannot see anything

  3. On 11/11/2021 at 13:03, silversky said:

    I think it's going to rise into a dreadful peak in 2024/5.  Followed by a crash that will make all previous property market crashes look tame.

    This is based on the land price cycle that's run repeatedly for nearly a century.  As land values peak, house prices follow.  Different stories propel the moves each time, but between the peaks and crashes there are many similarities.  This first leg off the last crash seemed to go on a bit longer than expected, without a mid market downturn.  But then the coof magically appeared to rescue the cycle, and there was a short sharp midcycle downturn.  The second part of the cycle seems to already have kicked in strongly.  2021 has seen strong growth and my view is that with actual inflation on the rise, there's little chance that there's going to be further midcycle corrections.  The cycle is due to end approx 2025, and I keep a note to self in the back of my mind that I must be living in a caravan by then.

    Demographically, there are a lot of reasons why property will start to become available, even as politicians claim at the same time that we need to build hundreds of thousands of new ones each year.  At the moment, we have unchecked immigration which is fuelling enormous demand, but supply is going to start to increase in the coming years as currently occupied property starts to become available.  The boomer generation mostly own their own property.  Many of those properties are under occupied, which means, if rented, they clear a lot more demand than if sold.  There's a large group of people who're going to start to inherit property, and some of them are going to have to sell it to pay the inheritance tax on the estate.  The others that are rented will drive down prices by reducing demand through higher occupancy rates.  This is going to steadily build downwards pressure (despite the story of supply shortages which will be running at the time) as we reach the peak of the boomer generation passing away.  Once this mechanism tips, it will become a self propelling monster.

    Buying a property is always a tough call, but I think there's a good chance that the next crash is going to see property worth a lot less than it is currently.  Albeit that's going to be in 3-4 years time from now and prices will have risen stubbornly and against all the odds in this 'transitory' period of inflation.  My opinion for what it's worth is that the time to safely buy a property was over a year ago.  I'd certainly be very cautious now unless it was perfect and was where I wanted to live for the next 20 years.

    What a big call. 

    Baby boomers eldest are 76 -56 so you are correct they are already dying.  esp in the North.  The problem with your theory is the Government will do anything to prop up the housing market.  imo  meaning the down turn will not be as bad as it should be. 

    I think you put a good argument with good merits. 

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