HawkHybrid

modern day bullion sovereigns track the gold price and not inflation. HH

https://www.museumreproductions.co.uk/shop/viewitem.php?productid=1565 there are many reproductions of rare coins. until an expert verifies it by hand, I would be inclined to believe that there's every chance of it not being an original. maybe try an ancient coins shop? HH

https://www.silburycoins.co.uk/product/kind-of-wessex-alfred-the-great-silver-penny-cross-lozenge-type-871-899ad/ HH

are you saying that for someone who held platinum from 2012 until now the opportunity cost to them was zero versus gold? HH

the consensus seems to be that platinum should at least be priced as much as gold? investing is not about random bets in hope of sky high returns. it's about being able to grow your investment within your risk tolerances. have you calculated how much(in loss opportunity) it would cost you if platinum continues to be priced at less than gold? HH

past pricing is not an absolute indicator for future pricing. future pricing needs future buyers at that price. the gsr used to be ~15:1 for millenia, but in recent decades(centuries?) it's averaged 40+:1 similar with salt, sugar and many others. if supply outstrips demand then prices can tank. currently catalytic convertors makes up ~3 million toz of annual demand. current pricing is balanced to current demand and supply. if fewer catalytic convertors are made then up to that 3 million toz has to find a new buyer. at this moment in time we simply don't have enough data to make a reasonable educated guess. I think those interested in platinum should wait a few years and gather data on the early impact and trends that electric vehicles would likely make on the platinum market. hopefully this can provide an insight on what might happen by 2030 and possibly even beyond? HH

imo the linked analysis is too optimistic for the future of platinum. my reasoning is this: over 40% of platinum demand comes from catalytic convertors in cars. if the uk(and other countries?) bans all new cars from being made with an internal combustion engine by 2030 then platinum could stand to lose a lot of that 40% demand. to make up the demand fuels cell cars (that use twice the platinum as catalytic convertors) needs to make up 50% of all new cars beyond 2030. any other market demand for platinum is likely too small an increase to make up for the shortfall of reduced catalytic convertors unless their demand goes up by +50% or more of current demand. my guess is that many new electric cars are going to use some of the cheapest batteries whilst still being practical to use. the dates are not fixed but I'm thinking that the jury is out on platinums future until it becomes much clearer what is going to replace the 40%+ demand that can potentially be lost over the coming decade. HH

silver needs to be diamagnetic so that the silver is not stuck on the closest magnet when sliding. it needs to be more conductive than copper for the energy required for the slide to be noticeable given a fixed magnet set up. so I'm guessing it needs both. HH

the shanghai gold exchange trade in 1 Kg units? (it's not uniform across exchanges?) what I was saying is that the spot price represents a range of prices. similar to how the mid price for shares represents a range of prices being traded. (I was using the 1 toz/20 toz to illustrate how realistic trading on a range of prices would work in practice.) HH

silver like everything else trades in a range of prices at any one moment in time. trading volume can change trading price. at any given moment, the price for 1 toz can be different to that for 20 toz. the spot price is a single price used to try and represent all of these trading ranges. it's like the mid price of a share. the spot price is best used as a gauge of the price range that silver is trading for. the quoted price for the item is much more important/useful than the spot price. HH

if you say the set can be sold at £5,600(ebay with bids 06/06/2021) then it has gained ~6.6 times. the bullion £50 sov bought at the same time has gained ~6.2 times(£310). on these figures the 1989 set has performed very similar % wise to bullion since 1997. HH

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0f4HDB1v1Co @Kman you might be interested in the chart at 1:00 which shows the correlation between 10 year t bonds and the price of gold over the recent decades. HH

just so that you know, exponential regression doesn't work like that. it's not linear regression. ie 4,800% is not 96% per annum(4,800 divide by 50). it's logarithmic regression of 4,800% over 50 years which is ~8% average per annum(use a calculator). 8% compounded over 10 years is 2.16 times original so projected gold price would be £3,036 in 2030. HH

average inflation given by the boe calculator since 1980 works out to be ~3.7%. not quite as high as chocolate bar inflation from 1991(4.7%-5.5%), but boe figure includes a extra decade of data. HH

isn't it his job to tell people that something is happening 'now' with inflation and therefore the metals? HH

the logistics of the inventory model that they use means that it's easier for stock to flow following a price rise. HH

15p to 60p is a 300% price increase(your original 100%+300% rise) average inflation compounded over 30 years: 60p equates to 4.7%, 75p equates to 5.5% HH

imo supplies of food and water will always be a better bet than gold, not just when things get ugly. bulk buying foods guarantee savings and improve consistency. HH

coins that are currently minted/easily replaceable should follow price drops more quickly. previously minted or less common coins are likely to be slower to change to price drops. HH

the powers that be (imo it's a long winded way of expressing entitlement) HH

I had the impression that most bullion coin shops don't hedge their positions. @LawrenceChard do you hedge your bullion stock? (not hedging makes sense, that's why prices are slower to move down due to restricted flow) HH

I make the distinction between those that lie and those that merely mislead. afaik mike maloney has not told/repeated lies. his data is correct/true but sometimes incomplete(hence implying misleading conclusions). I criticise him more than most on the forums for misleading people, but as a 'pro buying physical silver youtubers' goes, he is better than many others out there. HH

I would think of what is the purpose of the coin and buy the coin that is closest to matching that purpose. considerations include does it need to be cgt free? bullion is usually lowest premium over spot but coins with some numismatic value may increase their premium over spot if you can time when to sell your coin. bullion is usually better as emergency coins when you are forced to sell at short notice. numismatic requires coin specific research. if in doubt, sovereigns are good for many scenarios. HH

saying I'm wrong doesn't make it so. adding .period also does not make it so. you can't provide data showing that I'm wrong and can't explain for data that show you are wrong. this sounds like it is you who cannot admit that you are wrong? HH

I gave you proof from your own data that what you stated was wrong. what platinum is or is not doesn't matter. (you are the one that came up with the '.period'. I merely mocked you for using it.) HH