HawkHybrid

no one said asking for guidance was an issue. the thing is there's a lot of disagreement on swapping silver to gold. most of it revolving around how to price the silver. the difference in pricing silver is huge. I still don't get why you don't just list the silver for sale? quantitatively how much is adding the gold swap side going to save you versus buying gold from a separate person? HH

'These “blank” bottlenecks have occurred a few times over the past few years as the U.S. Mint has had to suspend shipments to authorized purchasers due to an inability to keep up with demand. In 2015, the shortage of silver planchets was so severe that the U.S. Mint was unable to produce and deliver American Silver Eagles to Authorized Purchasers for almost the entire month of September.' https://blog.bgasc.com/why-are-2019-american-silver-eagle-sales-down-at-the-us-mint/ the years for bottleneck to supply silver blanks should include 2008/9, 2013, 2015, maybe also 2019. HH

and zerohedge makes exactly the same claim as maneco. HH

this I agree with. a silver squeeze is unsustainable. all the hype about 'how the silver price will be trading at it's correct price(much higher)' etc. complete nonsense. (I'm not saying that a silver short squeeze(defined as shorters being forced to close their positions) is possible at this time, or that even if the silver price passes its year highs that it'll actually pass it's 2011 highs) HH

what I was suggesting was that both sides agreeing on the price of the silver is likely the biggest hurdle. what silver sellers don't realise is that gold sellers can easily sell their gold for spot -3% and take the funds to spend as they wish. it takes time and effort for silver sellers to hit close to their retail prices. ultimately gold sellers need not think twice about walking away from the deal. brexit does not change this unless dealers are now paying more(%) to buy silver? HH

why does the op specifically need guidance of a fair trade for silver to gold if he can get agreement on each individual item traded? HH

I'm reading between the lines. when people talk about trading silver and gold, it's almost always about the gold to silver ratio. (or rather it's almost always about potential disagreement about the gsr when they come up with 'a fair trade') if they treated it as two independent trades(£ for gold, £ for silver) but both trades are combined for efficiency then it wouldn't be such a big problem. if buyer and seller can agree on each item independently then there is no need for 'fair trade for both parties'. why would it be a fair trade for silver to gold? it would read what is a fair price for x item/coin? people need to be more upfront in their trading. hiding potentially important negotiation issues just drags out the trading process. just say that my silver/gold is priced at £x. people choose trades based on all sorts of reasons, not just price. HH

how can you compare market exchange prices with retail prices? what would be useful is knowing that the retails price is rumoured to have hit ~$43-47 when the silver price hit $48 in 2011. how much are american retail prices today? apmex price ~$35(not sure about taxes). even if retail prices are close to what they were in 2011 how much of it is premium?(current spot price ~$28) of course the easy comparison would be to compare both spot prices $28(today) versus $48(2011 peak) and say that it has lost ~40%. higher premiums is the result of a broken silver squeeze. (because there are no shorters being squeezed. if comex had shorters being squeezed it would reflect equally in the comex price for silver) I never said that you said that dealers are ripping people off. I was hinting that you should re-read @LawrenceChard post about not believing the hype. (I purposely chose chards as the example of a dealer) it's because it's a silver forum that people should not be lied to, mislead and tricked into believing something that simply isn't true about silver. I don't upset people who are actually into silver when I say that silver can make you money(timed correctly) but don't listen to the hype about prices shooting to the moon. I only upset the fanatics and those who have a self interest to mislead people to over pay for their silver. HH

how is saying that silver lost over 70% of it price $13(low)/$48(peak) from the 2011 peak an exaggeration? I'm not even going to bother to dig up the articles of physical silver pumping in 2011. you chose not to give a response for this? HH

I said those who believe the hype are stupid.(general statement) you didn't say what you think of the physical pumpers during the 2011 peak? (at least golds store of value means that it's recovered most of it's non inflation adjusted price($), it has taken 9 years though) HH

silver will have it's day. with hindsight what would you say to those profiting from pumping up the price of physical silver in 2011 for naive victims to hold onto a falling silver asset for 9 years as the price declined? are they ignorant or with selfish intent? I never said silver cannot rise and make people money. but believing the hype is stupid. HH

where is the proof of that? what about @LawrenceChard, would you say that he is also always negative about gold and silver just because he doesn't believe the hype of silver short squeeze. (please don't bring gold into this. as an investment physical gold is nothing like rubbish that is physical silver. physical silver holders are always trying to bring gold to help defend there side. gold has reclaimed most of it's 2011 loses($) where as silver is less than 60% of it's 2011 high.) why did the great bull begin in 2019 and not dec 2015? two years worth of average price rises makes a great bull market? but then again it's easier to believe every physical pumper that's been linked to on this thread because they say what you want to hear, despite the fact each and every one one them was cheering for silver to 'go to the moon' for years after it's peak in 2011 that started silver on a bear market that would last 9 years and see a drop of over 70% from it's 2011 highs. at least sunshineprofits use recognised data to quantify their reasoning. https://www.thesilverforum.com/topic/47759-silver-squeeze/?do=findComment&comment=514240 you do realise there is a good reason for this and it's not dealers such as chards ripping people off? HH

because they have shortages. true. problem is it's only ever part of the story. they are short of coin blanks with which to mint the coins. (notice how no one seams to tell you this important part of the story) there is plenty of silver, just the suppliers of silver blanks to the us mint are running behind. HH

https://www.sunshineprofits.com/gold-silver/dictionary/silver-shortage/ HH

https://smaulgld.com/there-is-no-silver-shortage/ someone who actually knows what they are talking about. HH

buyer and seller not being able to agree on a price for the silver is probably the biggest problem facing a silver to gold trade. (notice how it's not a such problem for pricing the gold). anyone who quotes the gold to silver ratio of (whatever it is) is not actually helping the situation. there is no such thing as a fair gsr(this is part of the disagreement). people who quote gsr values are only doing so to support their side of the trade. imo it's likely the seller of silver being unrealistic about the value of their silver. everyone knows that sold to dealers(the actual barometer for the pricing of bulk physical silver) the price offered is much less than what silver owners believe their silver to be worth. (gold sold to dealers is priced close enough(%) to what people are expecting). pricing something is very different to actually selling something. when sellers and buyers can't agree on a price, it's probably better to leave it be. (instead of coming up with fair guidance to 'prove your case'). HH

don't you mean 48:1 ? HH

my thoughts exactly. not gold coins but a gold chain might prove useful in those situations. HH

like any other trade, would you not trade it based on the current market value of each item? what is so special about the gold to silver ratio? HH

@PeteUK1960 just so that you know, the best form of protection versus uncertain future prices is to stock up on supplies. eg tin food, dry food, etc. only then do people put the surplus funds in gold. HH

you have a lot of reading to do. HH

the simple answer is how many forum members do you think would put the lions share of their safety net funds into kinesis? then look at how many seek a safety net with sovereigns. there are a lot of practical reasons why sovereigns win out versus many other options not just kinesis, and usually sovereigns win by a large margin. my guess is not without a noticeable percentage hit.(how many forum members have 500g worth of cgt free gold to swap out?). I don't think the odds are that great and dealers need to make a profit. this is why I recommend that the op tries to time a spike up before selling. a 1+% spike up in a day should hopefully be followed by a fill the gap move. if you time it to coincide with a larger cycle 'already over bought' you can wait for a return to base of maybe 2%. it won't turn a profit for traders but you can stand to reduce costs of buying and selling by ~3%. each cost reduction of 1% is £200 for each bar or a total cost saving of maybe £1800 if it happens as planned. if op is unlucky/lucky enough for gold to make significant rises after he has sold a bar then he'll be holding 1kg worth of gold plus about £22k worth of waiting currency. which is not too bad a situation, all things considered(his 1kg of gold would probably be no longer in the £red by then). what I'm saying is the risks should be minimal if he gets unlucky. he is likely to have some costs swapping the bars for sovereigns but he can try a small risk way of reducing those costs. it will take him some time and some planning but imo the cost saving of maybe £1800 is worth the effort should he be able to pull it off. note op must sell his bars one at a time for the risk to stay low. I'm guessing selling bar cost of 2% and buying sovereigns cost of <5%(if you are buying in batches of £5k each time, you can haggle for better prices as a repeat customer) so 7% in total. if he can save 3% on favourable timing of the gold price then that gets reduced to 4%. (which is still £2400 in costs but is better than the £4200 he would have paid). (also learning about gold and it's price cycle should be useful for the future) this is the best I can come up with right now. HH

this is actually misleading information. silver has been at breaking point for years now,... really,... breaking point,... counted in years and counting? (what's keith neumeyer going to tell shareholders? the truth is that silver is rare but we simply don't have enough uses for it right now(by volume), thus new silver mines is slow to pick up because nobody wants to mine more of something that is already difficult to sell as it is. there is no fundamental shortage of mining supply for a commodity that can satisfy 60% of it's global demand through being mined as a by product of other primary metals mining.) I am not saying that the silver price can't rise, just that there is no fundamental shortage of mining supply to justify any rises beyond that of inflation. HH

I didn't say that. you know that you should be holding the vast majority in gold sovereigns. why is your next move to not fix your earlier mistake and make a plan to convert the majority to gold sovereigns. how does transferring everything to kinesis enable you to hold gold sovereigns? the bars were only a mistake, we all make mistakes. if you sell the bars and use the proceeds to buy sovereigns you should be fine. this would incur a cost both when you sell and when you buy. to reduce this cost you can try and time the markets. you don't need to time it perfectly just a few % will reduce your cost to transfer. to set up a plan to do this you should know a few things. 1. the gold price does not move up in a straight line. 2. you have time on your hands to wait for the gold price to drop after you sell. 3. the gold price has cycles. 4. you don't need to turn a profit, the aim is to reduce the cost to transfer from bars to sovereigns. I recommend you wait for gold to spike up in the next cycle(1+% rise in a day) then immediately sell one of your bars. wait for gold to fall a few % from the price you sold at(this could take time), then buy sovereigns in batches of £5k until you've transferred all the proceeds from that single bar. wait for the next cycle and repeat with the other bars until complete. you have time to plan out your next move. HH

if you are holding gold to protect yourself from hyperinflation then why are you even considering anything that is not bullion gold sovereigns? HH