Marsh R2 > 6 Prices

[dicker]

Hi All

I would like your opinions on pricing for Sovs that are R2 to R6.

I fully appreciate the rarity guide in Marsh is based on a specific grade but I would be interested to know what other collectors pay for coins that are (say) R5 but in “Fine” condition.

Background - I have been buying Mel And Syd Halves for some time and it’s hard yards finding these in any grade, so have had to buy ones not in the best grades.

Best

Dicker

 

[GoldDiggerDave]

In short the prices are all over the place and a R2 plus rating is no guarantee of a high premium and I’d take the R ratings with a pinch of salt as we’ve seen these reduced Ottawa mint sovereigns for example, going forward with more access to auction results and on line sales I can see the ratings slowly adjusted so I’d be cautious of  over spending unless it’s a true rarity.
 

 

[dicker]

3 minutes ago, GoldDiggerDave said:

In short the prices are all over the place and a R2 plus rating is no guarantee of a high premium and I’d take the R ratings with a pinch of salt as we’ve seen these reduced Ottawa mint sovereigns for example, going forward with more access to auction results and on line sales I can see the ratings slowly adjusted so I’d be cautious of  over spending unless it’s a true rarity.
 

 

I think you are pretty spot on, and I have posted here before that some Sovs (Ansell’s, Narrow Shield for example) seem to appear more frequently than Marsh suggests might be the case.

Other rarities lay undiscovered….

Of course, some people might have discovered new varieties, unique errors etc, but until they come to sell it would not be in their best interest to disclose what they have as it would allow others to search for coins with the same errors and a unique variety would sell somewhat better.

Best

Dicker

[Foster88]

Hi @dicker

The Marsh guide, whilst helpful and informative is of course a good reference guide but some of the ratings I would say are a bit out.

For example, I’ve noticed that the 1924 P sovereign appears much less in auction sales and sale results as opposed to the 1924 M sovereign which is seen more frequently but rated as ‘R’. It’s just an observation of one date.

I find past sale results and total numbers graded to give a good idea of rarity alongside the Marsh book.

Are you looking at particular varieties of Melbourne and Sydney half sovereigns or just in general?

[dicker]

Hi @Foster88 

I have a specific goal, but generally yes.

I really don’t mind that many are very worn - they really will have had a spectacular life.

[Stuntman]

I don't collect older sovereigns, but I can offer you this insight from the world of predecimal coins...

I think that if some of these rarities are obvious in-hand to the naked eye, they are more likely to be popular and hence are likely to retain their premium value over time. 

For the other coins that are equally or even more rare but less obvious or popular, perhaps tread more carefully in terms of premium paid.  Unless you just like collecting as many of them as you can.

For example in the world of predecimal pennies (in which I am by no means a huge expert) I would pay the premium for things like a 1926 ME, a 1919 KN, a 1903 Open 3, and 1897 O'NE for example, but perhaps not for equally rare varieties of these coins and particularly some of the Victorian bronze pennies.  Those will have niche appeal but are mainly for the completist penny collector.

I am (was) mostly a type collector of predecimal coins but picked up a few rare ones along the way when the price was right.

[Booky586]

I'll share my recent experience chasing an R5 rated sovereign, the 1888 1st legend jubilee head from the London mint (DISH L8).

It's rated as R5 in Marsh and Steve Hill thinks it should be upgraded to R6 (3 or 4 known to exist). Here's what he writes:

'This is an extremely rare coin, there have been no examples present in any of the major auctions, including the "Bentley Collection" sold by Baldwin. It is far rarer than the current valuation suggests in the "Spink Standard Catalogue" and since the DISH publication was released indicating the rarity as R5, it is now thought that it would be more accurate to call this variety Rarity 6.'

https://www.sovr.co.uk/products/victoria-1888-sovereign-london-first-legend-extremely-rare-variety-ei16305

John Blyth had one for sale recently and says he has only ever seen two others for sale.

https://jonblyth.com/coins/coin-details.aspx?id=2450

And another Sovereign rarities, sold for £1500:

https://www.vcoins.com/en/stores/sovereign_rarities/263/product/victoria_gold_sovereign_1888_l8_r6/968584/Default.aspx

The PCGS population report shows 3 coins in the database: https://www.pcgs.com/valueview/victoria-1838-1901/1888-sov-s-3866-1st-obverse/4015?sn=207059&h=pop

However, I have seen three of these coins (not slabbed) pass through UK auctions only this year:

For £1200, at London coins: https://www.londoncoins.co.uk/?page=Pastresults&auc=176&searchlot=1989&searchtype=2

For £750, at the Coin Cabinet: https://auctions.thecoincabinet.com/lots/view/4-5NX9XR/1888-gold-sovereign-first-legend-very-fine-agw02355-oz

And £855, on eBay: https://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/125611773560

So with the 3 for sale/sold by the dealers, 3 in the PCGS population and 3 sold at auction this year there are potentially 9 out there. And I guess there will be more to surface that haven't yet been recognised, so I'd guess this coin is heading towards R4 rather than R6. I've not seen any in really good condition, most are about fine to very fine grade, and prices range from £750 to £1500.

Best of luck with the hunt!

Edited November 21, 2022 by Booky586
Typo correction

[GoldDiggerDave]

The R rates system was produced well before the days of the internet, some have been reclassified the Ottawa mint comes to mind. However I feel they might not be fully up to date as you could make them….. how could you  account for the same coin being sold 6-7 times in only a few years?   It could inadvertently lower the rating and it’s the same coin, easily tracked with slabed coins but then there’s nothing stopping someone taking out of the slab and re selling. 
 

We could get to the stage where technology will have a fix where a coin is digitally scanned (I believe there is a system out there today that can do this and can recognise different coins) would you want your own coins on this sort of database? 
 

and to end even if a coin is very rare you still need market demand to drive the price, just having a rare coin does not make it valuable over night I have a SOTD sovereign with a total sales figure of 465 (or around that) this should be reclassified as R or possibly R2.  I know this will not be the case until at least Marsh 2122 comes out.

 

good luck with the hunt! 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited November 21, 2022 by GoldDiggerDave

[dicker]

I take the Marsh grading as a guide only.   Suggest others do the same!

[Bixley]

44 minutes ago, dicker said:

I take the Marsh grading as a guide only.   Suggest others do the same!

So do you think that the prices given in the annual Coin Yearbook give an accurate idea of rarity?

[dicker]

I haven’t seen the mintage figures in this publication.

However, my view is that the more common the sovereign, the more likely the rarity index is.  Which sort of makes sense 

There are for example definitely more Ansell Sovs knocking around than the March rarity index would suggest.  I have also seen this with Mel and Syd Half Sovs.  

My view is the rarest Sovs are probably not yet identified (outside of proofs and patterns).

As an example, the Sydney Type II Half error where Sovereign was spelled Sovrreign” was only identified in 1994…

https://www.sterlingcurrency.com.au/blog/news-research/australian-gold-coinage/the-1858-type-ii-sydney-mint-half-sovereign-with-t/

 

 

 

[sovereignsteve]

9 hours ago, Booky586 said:

So with the 3 for sale/sold by the dealers, 3 in the PCGS population and 3 sold at auction this year there are potentially 9 out there. And I guess there will be more to surface that haven't yet been recognised, so I'd guess this coin is heading towards R4 rather than R6. I've not seen any in really good condition, most are about fine to very fine grade

You're forgetting the fact that the rarity indices in Marsh only apply to coins in the grades VF and above. Coins in poorer condition than this will not be included.

 

1 hour ago, dicker said:

There are for example definitely more Ansell Sovs knocking around than the March rarity index would suggest

There are loads more than Marsh would suggest. See my point above.

The vast majority of Ansells are in F-gF (or worse) condition.

[Booky586]

1 hour ago, sovereignsteve said:

You're forgetting the fact that the rarity indices in Marsh only apply to coins in the grades VF and above. Coins in poorer condition than this will not be included.

Yes, I hadn't considered the grade in my rough count. The ones I've seen aren't the highest of grades.

[Foster88]

There’s also the sovereigns that went into the melting pot in the early 1930’s.

Nobody really knows which were melted because nobody was particularly bothered then, a sovereign was a sovereign. The mass melting during that time have undoubtedly led to many more rarities even with original mintages of 1 million plus minted of a particular year.

I’ve read that the Australian sovereigns  of 1920’s decade and up to 1931 met the melting pot en mass. But nobody knows the exact figures.

Maybe this is what makes things more interesting for the collector. Possibly slightly frustrating but without doubt it keeps the collecting interesting.