Will silver spot go below £10 before xmas ?

[Martlet]

The charts/tea leaves reading suggest silver has done with its dip, though a wider hit to metals might yet take it down to around $13.60-13.70.  More likely to see a movement on Sterling, though unlikely, it would be a 13.5% increase from today's prices to move silver to £10.  Not impossible though take some serious political and economic good news to do that in 3 months. 

[Lowlow]

59 minutes ago, Martlet said:

The charts/tea leaves reading suggest silver has done with its dip, though a wider hit to metals might yet take it down to around $13.60-13.70.  More likely to see a movement on Sterling, though unlikely, it would be a 13.5% increase from today's prices to move silver to £10.  Not impossible though take some serious political and economic good news to do that in 3 months. 

I've been buying for about two months and continue, but I'm becoming concerned we might have a little recovery for a period of time too.  I continue to believe a correction in the equity / debt markets will give us the last best buying opportunity below these levels, and we probably continue to grind lower over time, but for now we might have a bump.  Just my opinion.

[Uksilverstackers]

9 hours ago, CorvusCorax said:

Can it be allowed to fall below cost of production?

Apparantly, Platinum has been for ages, so has oil...

2 hours ago, Silverhunter said:

Chance before Christmas. Very low I think. If I had the cash I'd be piling on platinum at the min. Price dropped because of cat converters I'm guessing and future less demand but that is the interesting p m at the min for me. 

 

 

No milk spots on Pt either  and I'm thinking Pt is more industrial and small market so may be like Rhodium for price discovery.

 

 

 

[Attilio]

4 hours ago, Lowlow said:

I've been buying for about two months and continue, but I'm becoming concerned we might have a little recovery for a period of time too.  I continue to believe a correction in the equity / debt markets will give us the last best buying opportunity below these levels, and we probably continue to grind lower over time, but for now we might have a bump.  Just my opinion.

I agree I see a short to medium term rise into the coming months,but longer term going down.

[Attilio]

6 hours ago, vand said:

 

£10 could easily happen. But it could just as easily not happen.

No one has a crystal ball, but if you are agonising whether to pull the trigger to buy now or wait for a price that might never come then you are asking the wrong question.

I haven't asked a question.And I am not waiting for anything,I do not agonise it's not my style, What are you talking about?

[vand]

the greatest myth of PMs is that rising interest rates are a headwind to prices. 

If you care to study financial history you can only conclude that this is plainly a false narrative peddled by Wall St and analysts who don't actually understand PMs.

The more accurate observation should be that Interest rates are raised to fight inflation, and as PMs are a very good long term hedge against inflation, then they tend to more than hold their own during such periods.

[Attilio]

31 minutes ago, vand said:

the greatest myth of PMs is that rising interest rates are a headwind to prices. 

If you care to study financial history you can only conclude that this is plainly a false narrative peddled by Wall St.

The more accurate observation should be that Interest rates are raised to fight inflation, and as PMs are a very good long term hedge against inflatio, then during in these financial conditions PMs more than hold their own during such periods.

I did not say that rising interest rates were a headwind to prices,I listed many things which in conjunction with interest rates can affect PM prices to go down.It's all about the dollar.

This seems to be the new fashion to ignore what is actually said,It's called the Cathy Newman syndrome.

[HawkHybrid]

20 hours ago, Attilio said:

I don't think the price will drop to that level  before xmas,however I think that precious metals will be price  trending down.I base this on the Fed will continue to increase interest rates.The Dollar will continue to be strong in relative terms against the other fiat rubbish.

 

17 minutes ago, Attilio said:

I did not say that rising interest rates were a headwind to prices,I listed many things which in conjunction with interest rates can affect PM prices to go down.It's all about the dollar.

you are either being purposely unclear, or my interpretation of

what you said as meaning fed raise rates means pressure for

pms to go down in price?

 

what the dollar does after a rate hike is irrelevant for pms

(this is part of the myth, that it's all about the dollar, it's not). the

data collected for the rate hikes since dec 2015 shows that pm

prices have gone up more often following a rate hike then

down.

 

HH

[CorvusCorax]

On 02/10/2018 at 13:39, HawkHybrid said:

fed rate hikes does not mean lower pm prices.

for silver prices the focus should be on demand.

having a floor does not mean the price will rise.

if the price rose it does not mean you'll make a

profit.

 

HH

 

17 hours ago, vand said:

the greatest myth of PMs is that rising interest rates are a headwind to prices. 

If you care to study financial history you can only conclude that this is plainly a false narrative peddled by Wall St and analysts who don't actually understand PMs.

The more accurate observation should be that Interest rates are raised to fight inflation, and as PMs are a very good long term hedge against inflation, then they tend to more than hold their own during such periods.

The reason I mentioned interest rates was more down to the cost of production.  Mine owners will have massive debts that need to be serviced and rate hikes are going to cost them.  To my line of thinking it just adds another strain in an overburdened system.

[Lowlow]

It's becoming more difficult to predict, I think.  There are so many wheels turning now, political changes, changes in markets and debt, investor demand is still quite high and could go higher or lower, there's just a lot going on.  It isn't obvious like in, say, the mid-90's where prices were in the toilet, nobody wanted silver, and you knew that eventually there had to be a recovery.  From here I think it's hard to know with any certainty what silver is going to do in the near term.  Of course (?) over the very long term silver as a hard asset will appreciate vs. the currency, because they just can't print or borrow more silver into existence, but for now it's hard to know what happens in the relatively near term.  Do equities take a hit driving the price down, do we enter into a blowoff phase in the equity markets, who can say with any certainty.  I think all that anybody can safely say is that it is a very dynamic situation.

[Lowlow]

1 minute ago, Lowlow said:

It's becoming more difficult to predict, I think.  There are so many wheels turning now, political changes, changes in markets and debt, investor demand is still quite high and could go higher or lower, there's just a lot going on.  It isn't obvious like in, say, the mid-90's where prices were in the toilet, nobody wanted silver, and you knew that eventually there had to be a recovery.  From here I think it's hard to know with any certainty what silver is going to do in the near term.  Of course (?) over the very long term silver as a hard asset will appreciate vs. the currency, because they just can't print or borrow more silver into existence, but for now it's hard to know what happens in the relatively near term.  Do equities take a hit driving the price down, do we enter into a blowoff phase in the equity markets, who can say with any certainty.  I think all that anybody can safely say is that it is a very dynamic situation.

I choose to believe this is a low silver price, that could go lower, and time to accumulate, and that once the equity markets break down the price will be a huge buying opportunity, probably the last before they screw the currency up.  But there are a LOT of assumptions built into that thinking that may or may not be realistic.  I believe they are realistic, and make a conscious choice to act on that belief, but people believe all kinds of things are realistic and sometimes they are wrong.

[Abyss]

Finally have a price target for silver $12.60

We see Symmetrical Triangle pattern forming in silver https://www.investopedia.com/articles/technical/03/091003.asp

The chart below tries explain how arrived at that target price (weekly chart)

Same chart lot more historical data

Hoping achieve price target in the next 6-24 months. Long term very bullish on both Gold and Silver. I believe breaking the support (lows start 2016 $13.70) very psychological both holders of physical PM and longs holding paper derivatives.

Price target Gold between $960 to $1060

Price target Silver $12.60

This is where I will be converting most of my saved fiat currency into physical PM.

[Lowlow]

3 hours ago, Abyss said:

This is where I will be converting most of my saved fiat currency into physical PM.

This is easier said than done.

My experience over many decades is that it's really not plausible to think you'll "convert to / from" precious metals over a short amount of time, it's really a lot easier to move in and out of a position over a period of at least weeks, and better months, with smaller purchases and sales.  This is especially true of exiting a PM position, because the market YOU HAVE is not going to absorb huge amounts of metal unless you're willing to slash prices and essentially sell for melt.  Yes, the world wide market for metal is huge, but YOUR market is only as big as you've cultivated.

[Abyss]

@Lowlow  agree what saying you may not get the opportunity to buy at this price. The price needs sustained in a bracket $12.60 - $12.80 for week or two and the investment market place (due to this historical low prices) maybe discouraged from buying as they see prices continue to go lower under these circumstances you would be able to purchase 2,000 ounces physical silver (maximum position). Question remains buy coins on what happens to premiums when/if Silver gets to this level. I admit more confident ability convert large amount fiat currency into gold at the price targets have in mind than silver because of the points you have mentioned.

I think buy physical silver at historically low prices the silver price needs sustained i.e. numerous attempt over month or two break below this price double or tripe bottom confirmation. I know @ShadowStack managed to purchase his entire foundation stack (10+ monster boxes) start 2016 silver hit multi-decade low.

[Lowlow]

9 minutes ago, Abyss said:

@Lowlow  agree what saying you may not get the opportunity to buy at this price. The price needs sustained in a bracket $12.60 - $12.80 for week or two and the investment market place (due to this historical low prices) maybe discouraged from buying as they see prices continue to go lower under these circumstances you would be able to purchase 2,000 ounces physical silver (maximum position). Question remains buy coins on what happens to premiums when/if Silver gets to this level. I admit more confident ability convert large amount fiat currency into gold at the price targets have in mind than silver because of the points you have mentioned.

I think buy physical silver at historically low prices the silver price needs sustained i.e. numerous attempt over month or two break below this price double or tripe bottom confirmation. I know @ShadowStack managed to purchase his entire foundation stack (10+ monster boxes) start 2016 silver hit multi-decade low.

What I remember for silver specifically from .. when was it, 2008 / 2009, but I don't remember the exact month and/or year, but whenever we were putting in the lows around that time, .. anyway, what I remember is that when priced dropped to a very low level everyone wanted physical but it was hard to find, you really had to work at it.  There were big lead times on purchases, people were waiting longer periods of time for dealers to get stock, and once a dealer had stock word got around fast and people had to jump on it or miss out.  There was a real shortage in physical silver, and premiums were high, even acquiring silver at the lows was a battle.  It's one thing for the paper traders to tell everybody what physical silver SHOULD be worth ... quite another thing for owners of physical silver to sell at that price.

Edit, I mean .. looking at it as a potential seller, if silver went down to 10$us/oz, or 5$us/oz, or 1$us/oz ... are you going to sell at that price ?  No, no matter what the spot price goes to, you're probably going to want 15$us/oz or 20$us/oz for your silver, so that gets resolved as a premium over the spot price.  Sure, you'd be able to go to a silver dealer and get silver rounds when the spot price is at 1$us/oz ... and you'll be paying 14$us/oz over spot for them.  It takes SUSTAINED low prices for people to settle in on the idea that they are going to have to accept the paper prices, and that's when the premiums drop.

[MarkMcPherson]

On 04/10/2018 at 02:00, Lowlow said:

It's becoming more difficult to predict, I think.  There are so many wheels turning now, political changes, changes in markets and debt, investor demand is still quite high and could go higher or lower, there's just a lot going on.  It isn't obvious like in, say, the mid-90's where prices were in the toilet, nobody wanted silver, and you knew that eventually there had to be a recovery.  From here I think it's hard to know with any certainty what silver is going to do in the near term.  Of course (?) over the very long term silver as a hard asset will appreciate vs. the currency, because they just can't print or borrow more silver into existence, but for now it's hard to know what happens in the relatively near term.  Do equities take a hit driving the price down, do we enter into a blowoff phase in the equity markets, who can say with any certainty.  I think all that anybody can safely say is that it is a very dynamic situation.

I want low for now buy buy buy.... 2020 or 2021 u be rich it will rocket sky high people say from £65 to £110 

[Blockhead]

1 hour ago, MarkMcPherson said:

I want low for now buy buy buy.... 2020 or 2021 u be rich it will rocket sky high people say from £65 to £110 

Hmmm.... 

[MarkMcPherson]

Hi mate what u think Xmas low as $10 I hope what makes u think this ? 

[pyperb]

looking like this will indeed happen

[vand]

On 13/11/2018 at 14:38, pyperb said:

looking like this will indeed happen

or maybe not

[bluemoon]

That's why predicting this stuff is a mug's game. Especially with the GBP and Brexit up in the air at the moment. Maybe I'm just old & stuffy, but it is much more prudent to prepare to react to developments accordingly rather than try predicting the developments. Boring strategies like cost averaging and keeping a spare saving pot for rainy days will let you sleep more soundly. If you want the adrenaline rush of predicting the future with your money on the line, bitcoin is your baby!