Equities going parabolic - Is the crash near?

[vand]

No relief rally in sight.

RUT is currently on course to official enter bear market TODAY

[vand]

Stock selloff continues.

Oil crash continues.

We are quickly heading into a crisis.

[SilverTanner]

I used to get lots of e-mails and letters from my SIPP provider wanting to know why a large proportion of it was in cash, I explained that I thought the markets were too high and I expected them to drop.

I don't seem to have had any e-mails recently😄

[KDave]

Deflationary period cash is king again?

[Guest]

On 15/12/2018 at 11:39, RichRock said:

Totally agree, BTFD seems to be turning into STFR (Sell The Fking Rip). Looking forward to next week's moves. RUT2000 is a poorly bull standing on one leg.

Popcorn back out of the cupboard for Mon_Fri.

Well that escalated quickly, much popcorn was consumed this week.

Worst week for Rus 2000 since 2011.

Nasdaq 100 officially now bear, Nasdaq Composite now bear, Trannies bear, Small Caps bear.

Oil took a dump (and the Saudi's in their pants probably).

However, just something I noticed while watching the price action, the fall seemed to be "non - panic", a more controlled sort of descent. Normally I would expect to see more extreme wild and rapid moves if it was a true crash beginning. Thoughts? 

I must admit though, the following screen shot of the last week's moves certainly does look Christmas'y, nice and red, very festive  

Edit: A bit of green spoils getting the completely red effect, but I don't mind...the green is mostly industrial metals and gold  

[Elements]

I kind of agree, the drops are quite large but dont seem panic stricken. I remember 1000 point drops back in 2008 and that was from a much lower base. Felt scary like any company no matter how large could go pop. This time,  a few hunded up, few hundred down. Like the party music has faltered and everyone is waiting around ready to dance again

[vand]

I think this really is the end of the bull market. It seems surreal after anticipating it for so long..

I'm genuinely terrified for huge swathes of business and society who have run with the bulls and thought the good times would last forever. Little do they know how hard life is about to get.

 

[Guest]

On 22/12/2018 at 13:01, Elements said:

I kind of agree, the drops are quite large but dont seem panic stricken. I remember 1000 point drops back in 2008 and that was from a much lower base. Felt scary like any company no matter how large could go pop. This time,  a few hunded up, few hundred down. Like the party music has faltered and everyone is waiting around ready to dance again

 

On 22/12/2018 at 17:46, vand said:

I think this really is the end of the bull market. It seems surreal after anticipating it for so long..

I'm genuinely terrified for huge swathes of business and society who have run with the bulls and thought the good times would last forever. Little do they know how hard life is about to get.

 

Yes, the price action did seem a bit strange, could be intervention coming on the cards. If not, and it truly is the end of the bull, then the pain is going to be extreme. Read this yesterday:

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"Washington — Secretary Mnuchin conducted a series of calls today with the CEOs of the nations six largest banks: Brian Moynihan, Bank of America; Michael Corbat, Citi; David Solomon, Goldman Sachs; Jamie Dimon, JP Morgan Chase, James Gorman, Morgan Stanley; Tim Sloan, Wells Fargo. The CEOs confirmed that they have ample liquidity available for lending to consumer, business markets, and all other market operations. He also confirmed that they have not experienced any clearance or margin issues and that the markets continue to function properly.

Tomorrow, the Secretary will convene a call with the President's Working Group on financial markets, which he chairs. This includes the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, the Securities and Exchange Commission, and the Commodities Futures Trading Commission. He has also invited the office of the Comptroller of the Currency, and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation to participate as well. These key regulators will discuss coordination efforts to assure normal market operations.

"We continue to see strong economic growth in the U.S. economy with robust activity from consumers and business," stated Secretary Mnuchin and added "With the government shutdown, Treasury will have critical employees to maintain its core operations at Fiscal Services, IRS, and other critical functions within the department.""

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I remember just before the last crash when the FED summoned the big banks for a little "chat". We know how that played out the following week. I know we have been talking about this for over a year on here now, the valuations are extremely over stretched and cannot be maintained at these levels, hence we buy precious metals for when it goes pop. The charts have been screaming this to everyone, but it seems only a few of us can see/want to see the bullsh*t behind the curtain.

If this does accelerate, then I fully believe it will be much, much worse than 2008. The intervention and QE since then has completely distorted the markets and the correction will be much deeper than anyone imagined. I imagine the phone calls/meetings today behind the curtain with the banks and PPT above will consist of questions/statements such as "Can we allow it to crash?" "Which of your banks will fail?" "There is no bailout this time" "I suggest some of you banks merge" "Shall we just bail out again with QE5 and hope for the best?" 

One thing I do know for certain, when the largest US banks all slap each other on the back and say "we have ample liquidity available", then there is no liquidity available.

Q1 2019 may be one for the history books. 

Should be a good show, I'm long popcorn.

 

[vand]

More red today. The selling is relentless!

[SilverTanner]

My original buy back in was the DOW at 22000 (no particular reason) and it is almost there, I may have to revise this downwards!

[Ansel]

1 hour ago, SilverTanner said:

My original buy back in was the DOW at 22000 (no particular reason) and it is almost there, I may have to revise this downwards!

Gone 200 down on that already. 

[vand]

Turning very nasty now.

VIX index has jumped to 35. This is fear now.

 

The RUT2000 has already lost 27%, and people are still in full denial that the downturn has started.

[vand]

SP500 closed 19.9% down from peak... 99.5% certainty that the bear has begun.

[h103efa]

Some absolute monster bearish engulfing reversal bars when you look at that charts using quarter year timeframes. 

[Guest]

22 minutes ago, vand said:

Turning very nasty now.

VIX index has jumped to 35. This is fear now.

 

The RUT2000 has already lost 27%, and people are still in full denial that the downturn has started.

Pure fear, I agree. PPT/Gov and banks had a constructive meeting today I see, with everything in free fall again. This has been my favourite trading month of the year.

I've just added another sector to my longs portfolio, it now consists of Banker Suicides as well as Popcorn.

Next open may see gap down with circuit breakers triggered. Oh joy  

Have a great xmas everyone!

 

[KDave]

4 minutes ago, RichRock said:

I've just added another sector to my longs portfolio, it now consists of Banker Suicides as well as Popcorn

Utterly ruthless 👍

[KDave]

US Stocks have their best day in 10 years, what is this? A super dead cat adrenaline fuelled defib bounce? 

Or is it perhaps something to do with this? Trump must not have tweeted today leading to the historic rise in stock prices;

[sixgun]

Well it is Boxing Day so turnover will have been low and so it is easy to push price around. i notice gold/silver got knocked on the head at the same time as the indices were rising. The Plunge Protection Team in action - propping up the USD and index driving stocks. Munchkin rang up the banks - said there is no liquidity problem and broadcast it to the world - suggests there is a potential liquidity problem. i would have some cash in hand in case the ATM's go on short time.

[Bumble]

"What are the markets scared of...?" Well there are plenty of possibilities.
1. The big run-up in US stock markets is mostly down to the major tech stocks. They have grown so much that they account for almost half of the entire value of the S&P 500. Arguably, they are in a bubble: they are priced on the assumption that they have a monopoly, but monopolies in the tech sector don't tend to last.
2. The huge rush into company share buybacks, paid for with debt, will put a lot of pressure on companies as interest rates rise.
3. Real estate is in a bubble again, in many parts of the world.
4. Auto loans in the USA are in a bubble, again.
5. Official figures flatter the economic reality. Unemployment figures are low because they do not count those who are not looking for work. Employment figures are low. Income tax receipts are low. Price inflation is understated. Retail sales figures are inflated by channel stuffing.
6. The European banking sector is an accident waiting to happen. Many EU banks have huge levels of underperforming loans and a great deal of exposure to Turkey, Greece, and many South American countries that may default.
7. Brexit is still unresolved.

There are lots of other things one could add. Admittedly, at any given time there are always problems one can point to. Things were bad in 2008 and the stock markets proceeded to perform well. One important unknown is how governments will react.

[Oldun]

Pensions have nowhere to go to stay anywhere near its liabilities (and must invest in gov bonds by law) for the future...and there was a massive buy (probably pension funds) to turn the recent drop around. 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-bonds-pensions/rising-u-s-bond-yields-offer-relief-to-corporate-americas-pension-plans-idUSKCN1FY0L6

 

Trump also lowered corporate tax rates for companies to bring dollars back to The US.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-bonds-pensions/rising-u-s-bond-yields-offer-relief-to-corporate-americas-pension-plans-idUSKCN1FY0L6

and then this...

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Working_Group_on_Financial_Markets

 

Mnuchin, Powell, Clayton, Giancarlo

 

Democrats would LOVE to see the stockmarket crash to further their own agenda and are doing everything they can to make sure it happens. Some dirty pool being played who dont give a fig about pensioners.

[C12]

How are you guys planning to weather the storm?

So far I've sold my house (middle of year) and now renting. I've converted my pension entirely to cash and gilt funds.

I've moved all my saving to NS&I accounts, maxed out the Premium bonds, the rest in the instant access saver. 

I would like to get exposure over the coming months to the US Dollar but can't find a safe and effective way to do it, possibly a stable coin like DAI.

Worst case is I'll order some physical greenback notes to sit on.  Still think we're 6 months before things start to bite. 

[C12]

3 hours ago, Bdean316 said:

you can open up USD current accounts with your bank if you really want USD exposure (https://www.barclays.co.uk/current-accounts/international-bank-account/) but I would of thought the swiss franc would be more stable or if you really want USD exposure and a safe haven investment surely just load up on more gold??

USD will most likely be the only safehaven for a while until the whole thing falls apart but probably not a good idea to hold funds with Barclays when the collapse hits. 

CHF may do ok but it's not the Swiss Franc of old. I've got plenty of physical gold and silver to get through the transition to a new monetary system.

[FlorinCollector]

@C12 there is an app called Glint. Think its mainly meant to be used for exposure to gold which you can spend on their debit card but they added USD. You can now add gbp with your debit card and then convert it to usd. Heres a pic of it: 

[Guest]

On 10/12/2018 at 16:28, RichRock said:

I'm seeing red across my screens, looks like panic about to set in, more popcorn. DOW at 24K, failure here could see rapid drop.

Hope everyone had a great Xmas and New Year!

The failure of the DJIA @ 24k resulted in that lovely 2500 point drop @ xmas, but here we are back testing 24k, support turned resistance. If 24k resistance holds, then another freefall, this time to 21k could be on the cards. But hey, with the PPT running the Casino and painting weekly reversals on the charts, I'm going against the herd and Shorting this 1 legged poorly bull from just under 24k down again. No bias, I just don't like 1 legged bulls .  Xmas retail sales worst since 2008/9, car sales disastrous, thousands being laid off, US Government closed, UK government in chaos, money printing to infinity...what's not to like? Could be wrong and the PPT drive this higher, but it doesn't matter, I've reduced exposure, got a lot of patience and cold wine. If it does crash, I've got PM's and cold wine. Here's to a great Q1 everyone!

[vand]

Yes, sentiment reached near-record bearish levels so we should not have been surprised to see the bounce. How much further it has to run is now is the question. It gets more difficult from here, though, as we start running into a lot of resistance levels.

Here is an interview worth watching, from a Trader who should be respected. Great insight into the "predictive power" of the market: