Equities going parabolic - Is the crash near?

[HawkHybrid]

13 hours ago, KDave said:

I have read that the counter trend rise in stocks would potentially set new record highs - is it possible? To see a new all time high rally at the start of a bear market?

 

there's two parts to this question.

in elliott wave terms a corrective wave within

a larger down trend can make new highs in

known waves such expanded flats. we should

be in wave 5 finishing a larger wave 3. so an

expanded wave(make new highs) of some sort

is perfectly possible.

the so called bear markets are corrective waves

(usually wave 4) of a bull market. for the stock

market you don't really get bear markets(5 waves

down setting a new larger trend).

that's why i say that permabears don't make any

money as they are mostly against the trend.

 

the market has yet to negate the possibility of

a new high(odds favour 3300-3400 s&p500)

 

HH

[vand]

I've actually taken advantage of this dip and deployed a small bit of my cash into stocks. While I do think there is significant chance that we will head lower in the short and medium term (3months-3years) I also think that with the markets having dipped back to their 200dma the short term froth premium has been blown off, the long term expected return is worth the risk of deploying a bit more. I still have plenty of ammunition left and will continue to deploy it if we enter official correction/bear market territory.

[HawkHybrid]

On 08/08/2019 at 09:15, vand said:

I've actually taken advantage of this dip and deployed a small bit of my cash into stocks. While I do think there is significant chance that we will head lower in the short and medium term (3months-3years) I also think that with the markets having dipped back to their 200dma the short term froth premium has been blown off, the long term expected return is worth the risk of deploying a bit more. I still have plenty of ammunition left and will continue to deploy it if we enter official correction/bear market territory.

 

for a person who doesn't believe you should trade

the squiggles, I see you're buying stocks near

their all time highs. not too long ago you were so

convinced the stock market was toast.

I just can't believe you're telling others who have

managed to have successfully trade a squiggle to

not take profits on that trade.

 

HH

[KDave]

No one is perfect 

[vand]

@hawkhybrid you can call it what you like.. My approach is crystal clear. I do not trade in and out trying to capture short term fluctuations. I'm deploy capital because I judge that the selloff has created lower prices and hence a slightly more favourable future risk/reward outlook.  If you can't tell the difference between the two approaches then you need to go back to investing vs trading 101.

[HawkHybrid]

On 05/08/2019 at 20:14, vand said:

I would advise not to even think about it until Dow/Gold reaches single digits..

Equities are coming to the end of the longest bull market in recorded history. PMs are coming off a brutal bear market. You want to be overweight PMs and underweight equities in the coming cycle.

 

^^

your words not mine.

 

HH

 

[vand]

12 minutes ago, HawkHybrid said:

^^

your words not mine.

 

HH

 

I said that in reply to SWAPPING gold for equities. As I have accumulated plenty of PMs over the last few years it suits my personal situation to diversify with other traditional assets but as I believe PMs are still significantly undervalued that diversification will be through a shift of my forward accumulation ratios, not through selling any current PM holdings. Nothing that I say is inconsistent, but it needs to be applied in context to ones particular situation.

[HawkHybrid]

On 05/08/2019 at 20:14, vand said:

Equities are coming to the end of the longest bull market in recorded history. PMs are coming off a brutal bear market. You want to be overweight PMs and underweight equities in the coming cycle.

 

Quote

I've actually taken advantage of this dip and deployed a small bit of my cash into stocks.

 

Quote

I do not trade in and out trying to capture short term fluctuations.

 

HH

[HawkHybrid]

@vand

instead of sounding like a hypocrite, why don't

you simply admit that you are trading the stock

market short term.

it's obvious that your intention is not to hold

stocks through the next cycle, that is about to

happen, but haven't started yet.

(buy near highs now to hold through the next

crash cos I refuse to trade stocks short term )

 

you have an opinion like everyone else.

you are sometimes right, sometimes wrong.

(just like everyone else)

sometimes it's better to hold steady through

fluctuations, sometimes it's better to trade

the moves.

 

if you could just stop telling people that

their opinion is wrong.(because nobody has a

working crystal ball. if anyone has, I don't see

them sharing it)

it's not like you've found a proven flaw to

others strategies, it's all opinions.

 

it can't be that hard to admit that you believe

that different strategies should be used for

different markets/situations. for ending

market trends such as the stock market,

you're choosing a 'trading' approach. for

early bull run markets such as gold you're

choosing a 'hold through fluctuations'

approach.

 

HH

[KDave]

I wish I could be so confident of my crystal ball. Instead i am just still autopilot buying stocks into the SIPP each month, cost average in over the next few decades and see what happens, even at these apparent tops. Who knows what's coming next.

I know that gold price suppression is not cool anymore as a conspiracy theory, but I expect efforts will be made to stop the price running in the short term if necessary. A rule change here, some PPT and paper selling there. Who knows how long it can continue. Same story for the propping up of stocks. Anyone for some recession QE and global negative interest rate policy?  

[vand]

1 hour ago, HawkHybrid said:

@vand

instead of sounding like a hypocrite, why don't

you simply admit that you are trading the stock

market short term.

it's obvious that your intention is not to hold

stocks through the next cycle, that is about to

happen, but haven't started yet.

(buy near highs now to hold through the next

crash cos I refuse to trade stocks short term )

 

you have an opinion like everyone else.

you are sometimes right, sometimes wrong.

(just like everyone else)

sometimes it's better to hold steady through

fluctuations, sometimes it's better to trade

the moves.

 

if you could just stop telling people that

their opinion is wrong.(because nobody has a

working crystal ball. if anyone has, I don't see

them sharing it)

it's not like you've found a proven flaw to

others strategies, it's all opinions.

 

it can't be that hard to admit that you believe

that different strategies should be used for

different markets/situations. for ending

market trends such as the stock market,

you're choosing a 'trading' approach. for

early bull run markets such as gold you're

choosing a 'hold through fluctuations'

approach.

 

HH

 

If there was an "ignore" function on this forum you'd be my first application of it, so let's just agree to mentally ignore each other's posts. It seems you have nothing constructive to add, only to criticize anything I say.

People can make up their own minds.

[HawkHybrid]

2 hours ago, KDave said:

I wish I could be so confident of my crystal ball. Instead i am just still autopilot buying stocks into the SIPP each month, cost average in over the next few decades and see what happens, even at these apparent tops. Who knows what's coming next.

 

you could take some time to learn elliott wave

theory? we are lucky to live during a time to

have access to some really good people who

have a better understanding of the waves.

 

HH

[Mcgrimes]

As @vand, I’m taking advantage of the lows and picking up stocks bit by bit - eToro and Trading 212 are good platforms for throwing a few hundred in at a time. 

I think that UK equities are fairly cheap but feel I should probably buy some US stocks to diversify a bit.

[HawkHybrid]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_h3ZbzHA10Q

 

first 5 mins is worth a watch

 

HH

[HawkHybrid]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gxArAoEwDeE

 

the a-b-c bit within the first 5 mins is worth watching.

(david frost claims he's not really into elliott wave  )

 

(fti interested in elliott wave, he's talking about the

possibility that we are in the wave 'b' down of a

larger wave 'b' up which would be the retracement

of the wave 'a' down (3030-2776 wave) )

 

HH

[vand]

Further hammering in process.

I was quite surprised that I saw the European markets were flat this morning, but they've not been able to cling on and are getting routed now.

FTSE is toying with a 69xx handle