KDave

Supply has already been decimated. Biden is doing investors another huge favour with the fracking ban. I had hoped the oil price remaining low would take care of that for us but if government can do it then that's great too. 

Fracking ban = lower supply coming online throughout the cycle, at least from a US perspective. If all else is equal on the demand side, that means higher prices. 

The UK looks like it might go the opposite direction with fracking, I understand that Caudrilla are seeking license to frack for gas in Lancashire again. We will need that gas when the wind isn't blowing. 

2 minutes ago, Kman said:

I'm guessing gold and silver went up for fear that there wouldn't be a peaceful transition of power in the US

Now that's all but assured they're easing off

I get a feeling a lot of people are being herded into bitcoin instead of gold and silver. 

13 minutes ago, goluckystayhappy said:

I took an punt on oilers within an ISA a couple of months ago and they have behaved like a little AIM stock. (In a good way)

 

Excellent timing on those buys, dam near the bottom. I made purchases in both then but my average is higher.

4 minutes ago, Paul said:

Sell Sell Sell it is then Dave in your opinion ?? 

No I'm not selling mate I'm dreaming. Pay no attention. 

I reckon we get down to £1100 an ounce during the big one and finish 2021 pushing £1300. 

2 hours ago, Erolroller said:

Is anyone buying silver coins off the bullion sites like bullionbuypost, coin invest etc and paying those prices plus vat? What am I missing. 

Will there be a time in the near future where one could sell 1oz silver coins online for £25 each? 

Paying vat soon will be the only way to get physical bullion, not the best way to invest in silver.

That said it depends what you think is coming. 3 digit silver in the next few years is doable in my view. 

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4393893-oil-prices-brush-off-nasty-storage-build-and-what-this-means-going-forward

This is the only article I could find that wasn't just a rehash of the data without analysis. 

Yes I saw that this morning, market didn't really react to it, looks like greater imports of crude into US and less exports out, I wonder how it fits in globally. Q4 is always slow but that forecast was shockingly wrong wasn't it, predicted -1.4 mil and got +15 mil  the weatherman makes better predictions. 

Why didn't the market react, seems odd. Maybe it needs to think about it. 

Also related to topic, the 'clean energy' top brass are leaving Shell in droves, a spat over not going green fast enough apparently. This is great news as it signals Shell intends to focus on the oil and gas business, that is where the profits are, excellent stuff. With the US numbers maybe the market will give us some cheap Shell shares as a nice Christmas present. 

Getting paid to learn is always good.

I would say waiting for the low you will never get in. Very very rare to tag the bottom. I don't have the answer, what I do is set a target I want invested, for example say you want X amount in a sector, X amount in a company and then start to cost average in, setting some cash aside for buying lower target prices, until reaching full allocation. The target can change but it's a good guideline. This process worked very well with BP and Total, but I bought too much shell around 10 per share with money set aside for the 9's. When it got to 8.96 I only had cash for a few so my average is higher than it needed to be. Lesson learned. Who knows maybe we get another try. 

The point on wishing you had put more in the winners, this is hindsight bias. It's not helpful. If you focus on this, tomorrow you may decide to put more into a future loser than you otherwise might have, because you remember your hesitation on the last winner. There is no way to know. Just stick to the plan imo. 

Harry dents plan is to wait for 1000 dollar gold. It's good to have a plan. 

Good stuff, come up with a strategy. If you can get out whole or at a profit from buying into too much then consider it, start again working with your plan. If you have a plan it's harder to be shaken, when you are looking at red for 6 months like I was with oil then you have a wobble every now and again but it's easier to get over because it's about the long term. 

My thoughts on uranium are if we are going renewable then it's gas or uranium that will have to pick up the slack, more likely gas. I like uranium but oil and gas is main position. Uranium is limited to a few parts of the world in regard to supply, gas is everywhere, hydrogen can be made anywhere as well. A mix of gas with hydrogen is the way most places will go, BP, repsol, shell, total are all gearing up on renewables in order to use the electricity to produce hydrogen imo. If mixed with nat gas it can be pumped through existing infrastructure to your boiler, to power stations, etc. Nuclear is cheaper but has its problems, waste, accidents, etc, but is a legitimate option and use will increase. I like both. 

22 minutes ago, Stacktastic said:

So whats the strategy guys?? 
Chips of the table and wait?? 

Im obviously keeping Greatland and MAG, but have no wish to buy anything else until i know whats going on. 
I have exited everything other than ones that are trading at a loss (gold ETF, GDXJ & Royal gold), but will sell them ideally with a bit of profit. 
Looking at it it very simply and taking out all the noise, it points towards to downturn!
Probably a very sudden and catastrophic one that will take time to recover. 
If there is stimulus (which there will be with the new fed woman) surely that will delay matters? 

I thought that in the summer, which was why I did not touch the Nasdaq, missed opportunity there.

I also wonder why they are shipping the vaccine to the UK first - guinie pigs used to free government medicare I guess?? 
BUT it might mean that due to increased confidence our economy might jump ahead of Europe and USA. 

I could be wrong but I read that as you are thinking about acting on the noise, by saying you have taken out the noise. 

Ignore the noise, are you buying gold or not? If you keep some miners and dump others what are you achieving, they will likely all go down together.

Almost always rough for PM's this time of year, consider it a buying opportunity imo

"I don't really know what bitcoin is but I'm going to sell my gold and buy bitcoin instead" = Bitcoin has gone parabolic again, how high does it go and how low will gold go.

Gold buyers should hope bitcoin keeps going higher.

I hope we get another pullback too but if we don't I have enough in oil now, more would be good though. There are other opportunities opening up in PM's though the miners have been very resilient so far because its a bull market. No doubt there will be opportunities elsewhere in 2021 which should be a good year for gold of all colours. 

Bookies odds have gone from 28-1 for Trump to be the next President to 15-1 today, that is due to his legal teams announcement regarding voter fraud in Pennsylvania. 

Oh well, peace in the middle east is looking more likely by the minute, as is a slightly lower 3 figure oil price this decade 

Trump has not conceded yet, he is fighting election fraud in the courts and his legal team now have thousands of sworn witnesses to election fraud, specifically surrounding mail in ballots, so that battle is not over yet. I wouldn't put money on anyone other than Biden though given how badly someone wanted him to be President, and i'm not talking about the US electorate  I would prefer Biden for the above reasons, he will put oil on steroids. 

Oil is going to do very well thanks to this push for green as the only way to get where the watermelons want to be is massive investment via carbon fuels. Biden will be excellent for oil it will amplify the gains as he is going to smash US shale production and then start wars in the middle east or anywhere else that has a large reserve of the black stuff, just at a time when world consumption will be ramping up in a big way. Trump if he wins will have less impact as a catalyst, but regardless of who gets into the Whitehouse will be conducting more QE and spending it into the economy.

I like BAE, Boeing and RR. as reflation buys rather than to cash in on any Biden wars.

If you want to cash in on Biden/US wars - invest in oil of course! 

Geiger counter limited 

Took me a couple of goes to find that one, looks good on HL, the chart says no one is interested;

https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/g/geiger-counter-ltd-npv

But 4.07% ongoing charge my god. That's a pricey wait.

Might be cheaper to just research and buy from the top 10 holdings;

I have thought about it but not put anything in yet, I prefer to buy companies unless there is a decent/cheap ETF, two come to mind that I have bought in the past - Cameco for uranium and Bacanora Lithium on LSE. CCJ I consider a uranium major and they pay dividends which ticks all the boxes, a safe enough bet even if the timing is wrong, depending on your timeframe. BCN I have not looked at for several years but at the time was developing an excellent project in mexico, I consider it as development in class (explorer, development, small, med, large), anything could happen though it might have come on a bit since I looked at it. 

Not sure about gold miners, not yet anyway its possible that we have seen a top as per 2016;

https://www.gold-eagle.com/article/precious-metals-now-and-then-comparison

No one knows what will happen though. I have a theory I am confident about and have positioned a decent amount (for me) in most of the oil majors, buying all the way down to the current lows - perhaps there will be new lows soon to get rid of the now thousands in the green, but honestly who cares. I am happier looking at red every time I log on to buy as it means I am getting more shares for my money and bringing the average down - a bigger position today for tomorrow. I plan for years worth of dividends, cost averaging and compounding before I start thinking about selling at 3 figure oil price at the minimum - the same system/theory could be said for buying PM miners now, gold miners bought on the way down will look like a great buy in hindsight once we pass the 2020 highs, who knows when that will be - perhaps next year? Perhaps longer, but at some point this decade for sure imo.

Personally I can't work out the short term, I am confident with the long term picture. To action its just a matter of committing funds over a timeframe you are happy to lock them away, as others have said, it doesn't matter if a share price falls over the short term when you are looking years out. Just don't invest money that you will miss or need over the timeframe or at some point you will be shaken out.

The hardest part is holding through the ups and downs, and the expected ups and downs. It is very tempting to sell some given gold is dropping again. Many of my trusted commentators are expecting a crash, one of the best ones was predicting a crash 'soon' at the start of October, then after we go on to reach all time highs in the S&P, now we are end of November still waiting for the crash. It will come at some point. These are the same commentators expecting minimum $70 oil average in 2021, perhaps that comes later as well.

Yes if they over estimate demand/bid the future price of oil too high then it will push spot prices down at the point of delivery.

Its interesting that for an ETF like USO, if the price of oil futures rises then investors lose a bit of money on the exchange of contracts, selling old contracts for spot price and then having to pay a higher price for the new contracts = less oil for your money. If they then have overestimated demand and spot falls to the point that no one wants the excess they are in real trouble. Seems like a bad way to invest in oil to me. 

Of course on the flip side USO would be a good investment if the spot market is tight and futures are low, because they can sell old contracts for a higher price (for spot price) and then buy future contracts at a low price when the same thing will happen next month. Does this not provide an incentive to keep bids for oil futures low? That oil speculation due to human nature should put downward pressure on future oil supply vs the other way around? Or am I looking at this the wrong way. 

33 minutes ago, Kman said:

@KDave can oil prices rise purely from speculation? 

If so and that pushes oil futures higher but the positive speculation turns out to be misguided, would that cause contango and more oil going into storage instead of being sold at a loss?

 

Having just read up on it quickly yes I think so.

Assuming there is enough excess oil speculation via futures for Jan 2021 (from ETF's for example) - that increases demand for oil in the future, producers meet that demand at the agreed price, then when time comes for the ETF's to sell the contracts no one in the markets want the physical oil at that price, spot prices fall due to increased supply and some of the excess oil goes into storage. Is this basically what happened to USO in April? But in a major catastrophic way.