silversky

The thing is that many of the children of the boomers already now possess their own properties.  They were a lot older before being able to buy them but they do now mostly possess property as well.  When they inherit a second home between siblings, they will either rent it out or sell it.  If it rents out and turns into HMO, it reduces accommodation demand more than a sale.  Either way, it's the sheer amount of under occupied property which is due to come onto the market in the coming years which will act against the current force of artificial population growth.  Some of the immigrants may also start to go home if things get difficult, and combined with the sudden increase in supply, this will create the perfect storm.  All just my opinion of course, but it's based off the land price cycle combined with demographics.

Yes, a very tough call:
If the boomer generation do it right and the property passes from the first partner dying onto the other survivor, and then onto the children, full IHT may not kick in until the total estate value is over £2 million.
With the current and ongoing increase in HMO (house in multiple occupation) applications, maybe, not as many properties will need to be sold - plus if they do get sold, it may well be to landlords for HMO purposes.

I think it's going to rise into a dreadful peak in 2024/5.  Followed by a crash that will make all previous property market crashes look tame.
This is based on the land price cycle that's run repeatedly for nearly a century.  As land values peak, house prices follow.  Different stories propel the moves each time, but between the peaks and crashes there are many similarities.  This first leg off the last crash seemed to go on a bit longer than expected, without a mid market downturn.  But then the coof magically appeared to rescue the cycle, and there was a short sharp midcycle downturn.  The second part of the cycle seems to already have kicked in strongly.  2021 has seen strong growth and my view is that with actual inflation on the rise, there's little chance that there's going to be further midcycle corrections.  The cycle is due to end approx 2025, and I keep a note to self in the back of my mind that I must be living in a caravan by then.
Demographically, there are a lot of reasons why property will start to become available, even as politicians claim at the same time that we need to build hundreds of thousands of new ones each year.  At the moment, we have unchecked immigration which is fuelling enormous demand, but supply is going to start to increase in the coming years as currently occupied property starts to become available.  The boomer generation mostly own their own property.  Many of those properties are under occupied, which means, if rented, they clear a lot more demand than if sold.  There's a large group of people who're going to start to inherit property, and some of them are going to have to sell it to pay the inheritance tax on the estate.  The others that are rented will drive down prices by reducing demand through higher occupancy rates.  This is going to steadily build downwards pressure (despite the story of supply shortages which will be running at the time) as we reach the peak of the boomer generation passing away.  Once this mechanism tips, it will become a self propelling monster.
Buying a property is always a tough call, but I think there's a good chance that the next crash is going to see property worth a lot less than it is currently.  Albeit that's going to be in 3-4 years time from now and prices will have risen stubbornly and against all the odds in this 'transitory' period of inflation.  My opinion for what it's worth is that the time to safely buy a property was over a year ago.  I'd certainly be very cautious now unless it was perfect and was where I wanted to live for the next 20 years.

Seems like the inflation story is starting to gain a bit of traction.  It's just entering the long and strong third wave right now, with mainstream punditry having woken up to it.  It will require some big gains, followed by a messy fourth wave correction (fiddly little nominal rate rises), before a final charge upwards converting all those who don't believe in it.  Only after it becomes self evident to absolutely everyone will it come to an end.
I'm really not sure how well Silver will fare compared to other assets, but houses are certainly on a tear right now.  My view is that they've got another 2-3 years of seemingly unexplainable gains before the next big one hits.  Gold and Silver both look to me like they're due some solid gains over the next few years, but property even more so.  Property is where a lot of people are going to be savagely hurt.  But not before enormous gains made in the face of complete disbelief.  Getting out mid 2024 is my plan.
 
 

I'm in with a choice for the winner.
Either a cheeky "Big cats are Dangerous" stocking filler!
Or a Bull / Bear flipper to help with timing your buys and sells.
Winners choice.

Yeah right... if your people don't believe the climate scam, "you cut what they get till they change".
That sounds a bit ideological to me, but I can't say that I'm particularly surprised given your previous expressions of support for the antifa communists.
BTW, I don't believe for one moment your assertion that you can't install solar panels in Florida.  I'm pretty sure you just made that up to slur the governor and make it sound like the crazy goes both ways.  It's a patently absurd thing to suggest and I simply don't believe it.
I've just checked it right now, and of course it's not true!  The first page I came across is linked below and it's clearly allowed to install solar in Florida.  Dated May this year so not out of date.
I don't know how the details got mixed up wherever you get your news, but perhaps it's that the guvvna won't let you sell electricity to the grid at a subsidised price or something like that?  That would of course be an entirely different matter to not letting you install panels for your own use.  There are places (Spain) where scamsters have been making money through subsidies, selling fake solar energy to the grid and generating it using diesel!!!  Yup.. that's right.. diesel!!!  Now that sort of thing obviously needs to be kept in check, and so there have to be rules and regs about how your power supply is connected to the grid.  That does not mean you're not allowed solar panels.  Perhaps you think there should be more generous state subsidies which pay you for having them?  It certainly seems like there are schemes to write off against tax for the cost of install so I really don't see your argument based in reality at all.
https://www.solarreviews.com/blog/solar-panels-florida-worth-it-expert-savings-guide
As said before (and back towards the point of this thread), the oil price affects the rest of the world deeply.  Deliberate high energy costs will increase inflation everywhere, and this eventually affects the price of silver in pounds.  I don't believe that either the fed or the BOE will be able to keep a lid on this by raising rates.  They don't have any room to do that without crashing everything.  I therefore don't believe that this is 'transitory' and I expect higher prices in gold, silver, houses and just about everything you can touch.
 
 

Nearly at £50oz ....not far to go now.....

Perhaps, however the QE over the last decade, compared to the last 20 months is chalk and cheese. Regardless of the UKs £GBP amount of QE over this time, the $USD has now exported a lot of it's inflation to the rest of the world due it being the Global Reserve currency. 
Even if the rest of the world had not created any more debt we would still be facing some of those inflationary pressures due to the $USD. 

The non-central banks & governments might have been able to suppress/manipulate some inflation for a while, but it looks like it's coming home to roost now. The can can no longer be kicked down the road. 

I thought the price was going to form a rising triangle around the 18 resistance level.  But that resistance level has been completely blasted through instead.
A look at the chart of gold might help to determine where this will settle.  They were a bit out of sink with each other in terms of their structures in time for a move upwards.  But this kind of shakes things up and might have put them both in the same direction for the same timescale.

Oil prices don't look likely to drop any time soon.  And increasing interest rates isn't going to bring the price of oil down when you cut your own production.  The Brandon administration have been very determined to cause significant self inflicted damage to the USA's energy independence.  Keystone was a massive blunder and the line 5 issue which has upset the Canadians into invoking an old treaty, certainly isn't going to help.  For now they're denying that they ever intended to shut it down, but there was clearly a move towards that which forced the Canadians' hands.  The USA has ideologues in power right now.  That means three more years of energy insanity, and most likely a further significant increase in the money supply.  Hence my view that inflation is far from transitory.
Here in the UK we're playing the same silly game.  There's a lifetimes supply of gas under our feet, and yet we're playing for the most expensive energy option there is.  The cost of energy will necessitate more government largesse and this will drive inflation.  The cost in pounds of anything real is set to rise, regardless of demand.

Oil prices don't look likely to drop any time soon.  And increasing interest rates isn't going to bring the price of oil down when you cut your own production.  The Brandon administration have been very determined to cause significant self inflicted damage to the USA's energy independence.  Keystone was a massive blunder and the line 5 issue which has upset the Canadians into invoking an old treaty, certainly isn't going to help.  For now they're denying that they ever intended to shut it down, but there was clearly a move towards that which forced the Canadians' hands.  The USA has ideologues in power right now.  That means three more years of energy insanity, and most likely a further significant increase in the money supply.  Hence my view that inflation is far from transitory.
Here in the UK we're playing the same silly game.  There's a lifetimes supply of gas under our feet, and yet we're playing for the most expensive energy option there is.  The cost of energy will necessitate more government largesse and this will drive inflation.  The cost in pounds of anything real is set to rise, regardless of demand.

That and the fact that more FIAT debt has been created in the last 20 months than in all time. And that is the USD only. Let alone all other countries. That will cause inflation regardless of supply constraints. 

 
 
I suppose it all depends on your definition of 'transitory' 
1 year, 1 decade? 
You beat me to it...

Everything's transitory if you expand the timescale chaps.   It just depends what timescale you think is appropriate.
If it was 6 months only, then I would agree with you.  Two years, certainly not.  Perhaps we would find more agreement if we flesh out what we mean by the word transitory.  For me, transitory is absolutely categorically less than a year.
When do you see this 'transitory' inflation ending?  And what length of time does the word imply to you?

I thought the price was going to form a rising triangle around the 18 resistance level.  But that resistance level has been completely blasted through instead.
A look at the chart of gold might help to determine where this will settle.  They were a bit out of sink with each other in terms of their structures in time for a move upwards.  But this kind of shakes things up and might have put them both in the same direction for the same timescale.

50p in an hour is a pretty big jump.

It is pretty impressive. I wonder if it'll stay there. 

50p in an hour is a pretty big jump.

I'm honestly surprised people bought the whole "transitory inflation" BS for so long. Looks like the masses are finally starting to wake up to the fact it's going to get a whole lot worse.. inflation will be hear to stay I feel.
PMs however are on a tear. It will be interesting to see if the market can tamps this back down. 


 
How do people see this playing out? A couple massive concerted tamps by the major Central Banks and leading investment banks? Or we have an "event" that closes the markets?

I'm in with a choice for the winner.
Either a cheeky "Big cats are Dangerous" stocking filler!
Or a Bull / Bear flipper to help with timing your buys and sells.
Winners choice.

Count me in please 👍I will send a 1oz 007 No time to Die silver bar still in plastic.

Im in!
Silver 1oz Music Legends Queen Coin...

I'm in with a choice for the winner.
Either a cheeky "Big cats are Dangerous" stocking filler!
Or a Bull / Bear flipper to help with timing your buys and sells.
Winners choice.

I'm in with a choice for the winner.
Either a cheeky "Big cats are Dangerous" stocking filler!
Or a Bull / Bear flipper to help with timing your buys and sells.
Winners choice.

I'm in with a choice for the winner.
Either a cheeky "Big cats are Dangerous" stocking filler!
Or a Bull / Bear flipper to help with timing your buys and sells.
Winners choice.

I'm in with a choice for the winner.
Either a cheeky "Big cats are Dangerous" stocking filler!
Or a Bull / Bear flipper to help with timing your buys and sells.
Winners choice.