silversky

It looks like the Red sea crisis is going to have a major impact on the world economy.  Oil and freight is drying up through the Suez, as more and more companies rule out using it.  Only Russian tankers are still transiting without being attacked, but even they may not be safe...  If this ended tomorrow, there would still be a large impact felt as the delays and costs arrive down the supply chain.  If we recall, evergreen closed the Suez for only six days, and that had a huge impact.
This crisis is going to create a way bigger drama as global trade is forced into a 14 day 3500 mile detour.  The cost of delays will be enormous, along with the cost of extra fuel to move things the long way.  Positioning jet fuel will also cause additional challenges, and costs to air freight will likely rise too.  A rise in inflation must surely be inbound?  Rising inflation means rising rates to combat it again, with a consequent impact on gold prices.  Hard to say what will happen to gold, but I can see silver falling as concerns grow for the world economy.  Oil supply to those nations which have rejected Russian oil will likely tighten, and I imagine that UK energy prices are going to rise.  This probably means that the UK pound will come under pressure, with a consequent rise in Gold in GBP terms.
Most shipping these days is flagged under flags of convenience, which means of course that it is not afforded protection at sea by major powers.  But if the world economy starts to falter because of the red sea blockade, perhaps military intervention will become a priority for a number of players not least the Egyptians.  Interesting times.

It looks like the Red sea crisis is going to have a major impact on the world economy.  Oil and freight is drying up through the Suez, as more and more companies rule out using it.  Only Russian tankers are still transiting without being attacked, but even they may not be safe...  If this ended tomorrow, there would still be a large impact felt as the delays and costs arrive down the supply chain.  If we recall, evergreen closed the Suez for only six days, and that had a huge impact.
This crisis is going to create a way bigger drama as global trade is forced into a 14 day 3500 mile detour.  The cost of delays will be enormous, along with the cost of extra fuel to move things the long way.  Positioning jet fuel will also cause additional challenges, and costs to air freight will likely rise too.  A rise in inflation must surely be inbound?  Rising inflation means rising rates to combat it again, with a consequent impact on gold prices.  Hard to say what will happen to gold, but I can see silver falling as concerns grow for the world economy.  Oil supply to those nations which have rejected Russian oil will likely tighten, and I imagine that UK energy prices are going to rise.  This probably means that the UK pound will come under pressure, with a consequent rise in Gold in GBP terms.
Most shipping these days is flagged under flags of convenience, which means of course that it is not afforded protection at sea by major powers.  But if the world economy starts to falter because of the red sea blockade, perhaps military intervention will become a priority for a number of players not least the Egyptians.  Interesting times.

It looks like the Red sea crisis is going to have a major impact on the world economy.  Oil and freight is drying up through the Suez, as more and more companies rule out using it.  Only Russian tankers are still transiting without being attacked, but even they may not be safe...  If this ended tomorrow, there would still be a large impact felt as the delays and costs arrive down the supply chain.  If we recall, evergreen closed the Suez for only six days, and that had a huge impact.
This crisis is going to create a way bigger drama as global trade is forced into a 14 day 3500 mile detour.  The cost of delays will be enormous, along with the cost of extra fuel to move things the long way.  Positioning jet fuel will also cause additional challenges, and costs to air freight will likely rise too.  A rise in inflation must surely be inbound?  Rising inflation means rising rates to combat it again, with a consequent impact on gold prices.  Hard to say what will happen to gold, but I can see silver falling as concerns grow for the world economy.  Oil supply to those nations which have rejected Russian oil will likely tighten, and I imagine that UK energy prices are going to rise.  This probably means that the UK pound will come under pressure, with a consequent rise in Gold in GBP terms.
Most shipping these days is flagged under flags of convenience, which means of course that it is not afforded protection at sea by major powers.  But if the world economy starts to falter because of the red sea blockade, perhaps military intervention will become a priority for a number of players not least the Egyptians.  Interesting times.

It looks like the Red sea crisis is going to have a major impact on the world economy.  Oil and freight is drying up through the Suez, as more and more companies rule out using it.  Only Russian tankers are still transiting without being attacked, but even they may not be safe...  If this ended tomorrow, there would still be a large impact felt as the delays and costs arrive down the supply chain.  If we recall, evergreen closed the Suez for only six days, and that had a huge impact.
This crisis is going to create a way bigger drama as global trade is forced into a 14 day 3500 mile detour.  The cost of delays will be enormous, along with the cost of extra fuel to move things the long way.  Positioning jet fuel will also cause additional challenges, and costs to air freight will likely rise too.  A rise in inflation must surely be inbound?  Rising inflation means rising rates to combat it again, with a consequent impact on gold prices.  Hard to say what will happen to gold, but I can see silver falling as concerns grow for the world economy.  Oil supply to those nations which have rejected Russian oil will likely tighten, and I imagine that UK energy prices are going to rise.  This probably means that the UK pound will come under pressure, with a consequent rise in Gold in GBP terms.
Most shipping these days is flagged under flags of convenience, which means of course that it is not afforded protection at sea by major powers.  But if the world economy starts to falter because of the red sea blockade, perhaps military intervention will become a priority for a number of players not least the Egyptians.  Interesting times.

It looks like the Red sea crisis is going to have a major impact on the world economy.  Oil and freight is drying up through the Suez, as more and more companies rule out using it.  Only Russian tankers are still transiting without being attacked, but even they may not be safe...  If this ended tomorrow, there would still be a large impact felt as the delays and costs arrive down the supply chain.  If we recall, evergreen closed the Suez for only six days, and that had a huge impact.
This crisis is going to create a way bigger drama as global trade is forced into a 14 day 3500 mile detour.  The cost of delays will be enormous, along with the cost of extra fuel to move things the long way.  Positioning jet fuel will also cause additional challenges, and costs to air freight will likely rise too.  A rise in inflation must surely be inbound?  Rising inflation means rising rates to combat it again, with a consequent impact on gold prices.  Hard to say what will happen to gold, but I can see silver falling as concerns grow for the world economy.  Oil supply to those nations which have rejected Russian oil will likely tighten, and I imagine that UK energy prices are going to rise.  This probably means that the UK pound will come under pressure, with a consequent rise in Gold in GBP terms.
Most shipping these days is flagged under flags of convenience, which means of course that it is not afforded protection at sea by major powers.  But if the world economy starts to falter because of the red sea blockade, perhaps military intervention will become a priority for a number of players not least the Egyptians.  Interesting times.

Egypt will be losing $30 million a day while this goes on.  That's somewhere near 3-4 % of gdp.  They can't sustain such a loss for long, but they cant go against Hamas/Muslim brotherhood too openly or there will be a violent uprising in the Sinai.  Only when Israel has terminated Hamas, will Egypt likely trade a deal on the border crossing with Gaza, for US support in going after the Houthis in Yemen.  It's a real mess that's brewing, with the potential to wreak havoc on global economics.  I'm ambivalent on the likely effect on gold, but recognise the potential for some really big moves either way.  Iran has been scheming hard for this day, so it would be foolish not to consider that they've already gamed most of the responses.  Is Hezbollah next?

With Suez effectively closed (red sea missile attacks on commercial shipping has caused BP and others to suspended shipping in the red sea)...  It's a near certainly that there's a delayed economic shockwave inbound.  Will this type of economic shock be beneficial for the price of gold?  And will the Egyptians eventually be tempted to go to war with Yemen to protect their income from Suez?  History teaches that shipping attacks don't usually result in big international players going to war, but a local player losing substantial national income, may well be more inclined.
 

Egypt will be losing $30 million a day while this goes on.  That's somewhere near 3-4 % of gdp.  They can't sustain such a loss for long, but they cant go against Hamas/Muslim brotherhood too openly or there will be a violent uprising in the Sinai.  Only when Israel has terminated Hamas, will Egypt likely trade a deal on the border crossing with Gaza, for US support in going after the Houthis in Yemen.  It's a real mess that's brewing, with the potential to wreak havoc on global economics.  I'm ambivalent on the likely effect on gold, but recognise the potential for some really big moves either way.  Iran has been scheming hard for this day, so it would be foolish not to consider that they've already gamed most of the responses.  Is Hezbollah next?

With Suez effectively closed (red sea missile attacks on commercial shipping has caused BP and others to suspended shipping in the red sea)...  It's a near certainly that there's a delayed economic shockwave inbound.  Will this type of economic shock be beneficial for the price of gold?  And will the Egyptians eventually be tempted to go to war with Yemen to protect their income from Suez?  History teaches that shipping attacks don't usually result in big international players going to war, but a local player losing substantial national income, may well be more inclined.
 

Egypt will be losing $30 million a day while this goes on.  That's somewhere near 3-4 % of gdp.  They can't sustain such a loss for long, but they cant go against Hamas/Muslim brotherhood too openly or there will be a violent uprising in the Sinai.  Only when Israel has terminated Hamas, will Egypt likely trade a deal on the border crossing with Gaza, for US support in going after the Houthis in Yemen.  It's a real mess that's brewing, with the potential to wreak havoc on global economics.  I'm ambivalent on the likely effect on gold, but recognise the potential for some really big moves either way.  Iran has been scheming hard for this day, so it would be foolish not to consider that they've already gamed most of the responses.  Is Hezbollah next?

Egypt will be losing $30 million a day while this goes on.  That's somewhere near 3-4 % of gdp.  They can't sustain such a loss for long, but they cant go against Hamas/Muslim brotherhood too openly or there will be a violent uprising in the Sinai.  Only when Israel has terminated Hamas, will Egypt likely trade a deal on the border crossing with Gaza, for US support in going after the Houthis in Yemen.  It's a real mess that's brewing, with the potential to wreak havoc on global economics.  I'm ambivalent on the likely effect on gold, but recognise the potential for some really big moves either way.  Iran has been scheming hard for this day, so it would be foolish not to consider that they've already gamed most of the responses.  Is Hezbollah next?

With Suez effectively closed (red sea missile attacks on commercial shipping has caused BP and others to suspended shipping in the red sea)...  It's a near certainly that there's a delayed economic shockwave inbound.  Will this type of economic shock be beneficial for the price of gold?  And will the Egyptians eventually be tempted to go to war with Yemen to protect their income from Suez?  History teaches that shipping attacks don't usually result in big international players going to war, but a local player losing substantial national income, may well be more inclined.
 

Egypt will be losing $30 million a day while this goes on.  That's somewhere near 3-4 % of gdp.  They can't sustain such a loss for long, but they cant go against Hamas/Muslim brotherhood too openly or there will be a violent uprising in the Sinai.  Only when Israel has terminated Hamas, will Egypt likely trade a deal on the border crossing with Gaza, for US support in going after the Houthis in Yemen.  It's a real mess that's brewing, with the potential to wreak havoc on global economics.  I'm ambivalent on the likely effect on gold, but recognise the potential for some really big moves either way.  Iran has been scheming hard for this day, so it would be foolish not to consider that they've already gamed most of the responses.  Is Hezbollah next?

With Suez effectively closed (red sea missile attacks on commercial shipping has caused BP and others to suspended shipping in the red sea)...  It's a near certainly that there's a delayed economic shockwave inbound.  Will this type of economic shock be beneficial for the price of gold?  And will the Egyptians eventually be tempted to go to war with Yemen to protect their income from Suez?  History teaches that shipping attacks don't usually result in big international players going to war, but a local player losing substantial national income, may well be more inclined.
 

With Suez effectively closed (red sea missile attacks on commercial shipping has caused BP and others to suspended shipping in the red sea)...  It's a near certainly that there's a delayed economic shockwave inbound.  Will this type of economic shock be beneficial for the price of gold?  And will the Egyptians eventually be tempted to go to war with Yemen to protect their income from Suez?  History teaches that shipping attacks don't usually result in big international players going to war, but a local player losing substantial national income, may well be more inclined.
 

With Suez effectively closed (red sea missile attacks on commercial shipping has caused BP and others to suspended shipping in the red sea)...  It's a near certainly that there's a delayed economic shockwave inbound.  Will this type of economic shock be beneficial for the price of gold?  And will the Egyptians eventually be tempted to go to war with Yemen to protect their income from Suez?  History teaches that shipping attacks don't usually result in big international players going to war, but a local player losing substantial national income, may well be more inclined.
 

id venture its quite the opposite..  they are doing exactly what the need to do..  the currency is now officially at its black market level.. so what it is actually worth.  
spending and social have to be slashed (the applies to every western country as well by the way).  
the spike in inflation from the devaluation will be less then expected as no one was taking their official currency at their rate any way.. 
long end interest rates will collapse if they stay on top of spending.. inward investment will skyrocket..
yes there will be pain but it is necessary.. also there new guy is doing all the hard miles on day one. exactly as he should    
I expect to see them comfortably outperforming the UK on growth within 2 years.    

A sea of green on Auronum's Gold heatmap but take a look at Argentina, gold up 122% against the peso in 1 day. THAT is why we own gold

End of this week will determine that.  It's still possible that this is just the end of a corrective wave, and another big leg up will set off soon.  But the longer this goes... the less likely that is.  And the less likely it is, the more likely that a very large wave down is inbound.  A further 15% drop could easily be on the cards.  Failed breaks are notorious for setting off big corrections, so this must return to the Friday close from 2 weeks ago, and soon.

This, and that.

Public Statement (relates to NBS): Why I am not the real Christmas Scrooge
Firstly: The main purpose of TSF is not to make money, and TSF was not set up to make money. Which is perhaps why it is a successful forum and one of the largest English speaking platforms for precious metals enthusiasts. We therefore have no hesitation in removing accounts that are deliberately trying to cause issues or upset the balance of the forum.

The vast majority of regular members however are extremely helpful to the community here and wish for the forum to succeed and have been generous enough to support the forum with a Premium Membership and specifically Platinum Group Premium Memberships.
 

TSF is however still a business and one of my main sources of income, which creates a very small modest income after taxes for the vast amount of hours I have put into the forum. And which sometimes operates some months at a loss and I need to put money into the forum. There are a lot of members who profit more from the existence of the forum than the forum itself makes. The success of the forum also affects others who I have outsourced work to for other projects to help them, and who also rely on the finance success of the forum. 
I do not own any large amounts of gold or silver other than the TSF branded rounds/bars as anytime I have purchased some precious metals I have ended up selling it in order to invest into the forum as our costs (especially development and maintenance of existing custom applications/plugins regularly exceeds the small revenue which TSF generates month to month. TSF is not VAT registered as we do not even make enough revenue to hit that small limit currently, which shows how little profit it can make)

As I have stated before I believe that members should be able to discuss a wide range of topics as long as they remain respectful to other members and have on many occasions defended the existence of the NBS topic where I believe members should be able to relax in a slightly more informal section of the forum. I have however politely asked that it doesn’t spill out into the precious metals section of the forum and ruin the forum experience for other members.  This has repeatedly been broken over the last 5-6 months, despite many pleads to keep the NBS style posts strictly to the NBS topic. In fairness the fast majority of members posting in the NBS have been respectful and have followed my requests, thank you for this.

This has created a continue increased amount of Admin workload and there have been many posts which I have missed (as I am unable to read everything) In order to help keep the forum tidy and respectful we have outsourced an AdminSupport @AdminSupport

I would still like the NBS topic to remain, as per the clear rules set out.

As stated in the NBS topic*:
There will be some sort of promotional offer during this time. (please do continue reading the full post below, and specially the however part below) 
 
Sorry if anyone feels that the new change is a ‘money grab’ and comparable to the ULEZ. But the decision was purely an administrative decision to try to reduce the repeated issues of the NBS style posts flowing into the precious metals sections and trade section, and the continue headache I have to deal with reports and issues. Our costs (both the amount of time myself needs to put into Moderation opposed to focusing on growing the forum and other projects, as well as outsourcing someone to help have also increased our costs) As the vast majority of members in the NBS topic are already Platinum Group Premium Members I do not think it is much of an ask. As previously stated there will also be a generous offer for those who wish to consider upgrading, and as members who have been here a long time will understand I am more than generous with helping members. Platinum Premium Membership if paid annually in GBP is only £8.25 per month.
 
Trade topics do not need to mention ********* woman, or any of your hidden desires which should be kept private and not publicly announced in trade topics. There is absolutely no need for such crude remarks. And we believe it is perfectly acceptable to ask members not to post trade topics with such titles. TSF can remain a fun place without this needing to affect the trade section and precious metals section of the forum.

Scantily dressed photos of women should not be posted on the forum (though we have allowed this in the NBS topic providing it does not breach the rules on pornography)
I am trying to keep the forum stable and pleasant for for all members including our members and official sponsors who are female, please remember this when posting on the forum and remain respectful. It is a public precious metals forum, not a gentleman’s private club. And there is the NBS topic remains for members to join in some fun and banter, please do continue to keep the NBS style posts strictly to that topic and thank you to the members who do. 

I am unsure why some wish to be disruptive or deliberately try to damage the forum, or to try to publicly create unbalance or resentment against myself or the forum, I am merely trying to keep the forum stable and ensure the long term survival. Sometimes I may be very busy and replies may be short, direct and to the point. This in no way is an indication that I do not care about the forum or about you, or about the community here. I am merely overworked and overstressed and trying to effectively deal with the tasks at hand as efficiently as possible. There may also be some cultural differences.

There is a clear safe place for members to joke around (within reason) and have banter in, and I have asked repeatedly to keep such posts in that particular NBS topic.
 
We want members to have fun. And overall the forum is generally a very relaxed environment with a large amount of freedom given to members. The problem comes when members ruin the forum experience for others, some members only wish to engage in precious metals content or to buy and sell, which is why we released the default activity feed to not include the NBS topic (this can be changed and saved as per members settings to also include as written in the NBS)
 
In order to improve the member experience and account support there is a new account AdminSupport @AdminSupport, they will automatically be added to any private message conversations started with me or ones where I am added to, so that we can respond to you account enquires as quickly as possible. They will also be helping with moderation to help keep the forum tidy.

This will also have the advantage of improving the member experience as account related questions can be answered in a more timely manner. This is in addition to the Moderators that we have that help out on the forum, many thanks to all the moderators and especially @trp for recently organising the Christmas Draws and helping out on the forum a lot  

*however:

Due to the current economic climate and the fact that it is Christmas and I do not wish to be labeled as scrooge this year, in an unheard of 180 degree turn I have decided to revoke my previous decision in reaction to members breaching the NBS terms and will keep to the original plan of Gold and above as outlined nearly 6 months ago. This will ensure that anyone wishing to engage in the NBS topic only needs to have Gold or above and does not need a Platinum Level Premium Membership. But we hope that members can appreciate and understand our situation, both from a cost and time perspective. Thank you to those members who continually respect the forums rules and the NBS guidelines and who keep such posts strictly to this section of the forum. Thank you to all members who help keep the forum tidy and who report posts so that we can tidy the forum and keep it pleasant for all. 

I also have not only my own finances or the forums to worry about but other people who I have outsourced work to in order to help them and have these responsibilities, which can add stress to an already sometimes stressful 😰 (but mostly very enjoyable) role dealing with (mostly very) lovely people  

Once again many thanks to all members who decide to support TSF with Premium Membership and especially those who choose a Platinum Group Premium Membership. We understand, and can feel it ourselves how the recent costs of living (especially in Europe but also worldwide) have affected many people’s finances making the cost of living much higher. I myself have moved to try to take advantage of price arbitrage in order to afford the cost of life.

We hope that you all have a very Merry Christmas with friends and family

This was around 15 Coke cans

This post is ahead of its time when robots rule the world and copper is scarce. Ultra prepper stock here!

I often think that about silver

Similar to others .. what’s left. I take dem. Perfect present for my Argentine uncle.