Maxx546

A muted opening over here in Asia.  I’m currently in Bangers for a bit of R and R.
The Bangkok Post, had the below article. Always nice to see a positive article on Gold in the morning.
Best
Dicker
 

Some further analysis:
 
Gold is on the cusps of a historic move. Once gold passes $2,100, there is no turning back... Last time gold broke out after 1300 days of consolidation. Same story to repeat?


 
 

There’s people on here who have bought sovereigns if not as cheep, then close to! Don’t start on here again how things were cheap and easy to get years ago. The three bedroom house I bought at £30,000 was at the maximum we could afford and there wasn’t a lot of spare cash knocking around. Stocks and shares etc. ….. well everything was well financed with interest rates well in double figures🤔😮 
 
Bit like knocking my dad for say he could have an amazing night out for ‘10 bob’ …. wages were c**p🤔
Obviously you come from a wealthy family… not all in that position 

PF 69 or PF70 of modern coins is just a huge commercial trick to foul poor collectors. As already written there is no guarantee the same coin would get the same grading if submitted multiple times.
That should be just more than enough to stop this insane run to submit to get the magic number. Moreover, if (assuming that) it was scientifically possible to separate 69s from 70s (of course not with naked eye or home technology) what would prevent a slabbing company to receive your crispy potential 70, keep it and resend you another coin, a “decent” 69? You would never notice. Modern coins look identical, especially proofs.
It is also very very difficult to submit coins as a private and get the maximum grade. Why? Maybe because there are also hidden or maybe not even hidden agreement amongst professionals (like Mints or dealers and who slabs) to keep the first monopoly of 70s slabbed coins? (like the famous “first releases” that a normal person cant simply obtain directly from the producer?)
With pre (talking about sovereigns) 1902 things are different as each coin can be quite easily recognized.
I myself bought the complete gothic sovereign series throughout years, 13 coins from 1985 to 1997 and i always looked for 69s. They look amazing and i m quite sure they could be 70s, if maybe submitted for slab through the right channel….
Isnt this sad if you consider the amount of money involved in this market? A 69 goes for 600 gbp, a 70 for 1 grand..or even more..

The Street Name is Dr. Richard 🍆
So we're saying the technical race is between $1930 ($1927-1940) and $2080 ($2090), with $2000/oz an important psychological and technical support:

 
If you don't want to buy now or continue with your DCA purchases, then you're waiting for the price to cascade through all of those supports above and around $2000. If you're waiting for a dip then you need gold to drop below $2000 and stay there long enough for you to buy. (Incidentally you'd also want to see gold break those supports with momentum as opposed to drip-feeding $1/day)
Do I think gold will remain below $2000/oz for a significant period of time? No, but I've been wrong before and I will be again. There's been greater volatility in gold prices in recent years than the historical norm, with swings of +/- $100/day not unheard of. It's feasible you could wait for a temporary (perhaps intraday) dip and find a nice buy point but should you be banking on that? Probably not and especially not if it requires constant monitoring and premiums to dip to match gold spot price
I believe $2000/oz is the new floor but if we get dips when and why will we get them? 
To get a major dip we might need a major recession (aka a deflationary event). A major recession historically leads to a temporary dip in gold prices as traders sell off their prime assets to cover their losses in other markets. There's no guarantee a recessionary gold dip would occur this time as conditions are different with central banks engaging in sustained record buying sprees and money managers seeing gold as ever more important to their financial stability and hedges against what is perceived to be a bubble in asset prices (stock markets/cryptos). It may be the case in the next major financial crisis that everything is sold except for precious metals and miners (a theory some have already put forward)
Another possible cause of a major dip that is robust is a strengthening of DXY (the USD index) or BXY (GBP index). We saw DXY (most important for global commodities like gold, oil) strengthening recently and it had a directly proportional effect on the price of silver in real time. The USD strengthening occurred as traders (those still behind the curve) shifted their expectations for rate cuts in March to rate cuts no earlier than May. While the DXY relationship with PMs is robust the logic behind it is questionable. The DXY strength is a multi-decade long indicator that has been obliterated by gold (USD lost 99%+ of its value vs gold). So when DXY strengthens on the back of them not creating as much new money as expected, I take that with a pinch of salt. The USD and fiat in general are still weak and being diluted at an ever greater rate (debt creation accelerating). I struggle to see the logic of the perceived strength of USD vs physical assets when the USD is infinite (MMT) while physical assets like gold are finite. That's besides the point though, the market will still react to DXY strength and weakness
If it was a normal year we might expect dips in gold in the summer, especially August-October/early November. This year our expectations for that time period are that USD, GBP, Euro and RMB will see rate cuts (weakens fiat, boosts XAU/XAG and reduces opportunity cost of holding metals) due to economic slowdown and the major US and UK elections (politicians want to boost the economy on a temporary basis, even if it's a negative efficiency, to make them look better in the eyes of the masses, "It's the economy, stupid!")
So the seasonal weakness we might expect in gold/silver may be replaced by a seasonal strengthening
That's a lot of words to say I don't see how we get a major dip in gold prices in 2024, dips large enough to make a significant difference to your buying patterns. I'm more worried about missing the rocket to $2300+ than I am about potentially overspending by a few £s at current price levels. The most you could lose by buying today is probably 10% with a retracement all the way back to $1800 but that's unlikely in my view
If I had the same stacking goals as you then I would just DCA. If I felt the price was too high then maybe I might slow the DCA a little bit to create a fund to buy the dip. An important point to consider is your physical premium and buy price. You could easily see an item listed for £400 at Tavex and find someone on the forum selling at £390. That hypothetical saving of 2.5% is cover against a dropping spot price. So if you're asking for my advice, I would DCA and buy every time I saw the items I wanted at low premium and see that as perhaps being more important than the spot price or trying to "time the markets" (which is theoretically impossible). 

New Hampshire Bill Would Allow Employers to Pay Employees With Gold or Silver:
https://blog.tenthamendmentcenter.com/2023/12/new-hampshire-bill-would-allow-employers-to-pay-employees-with-gold-or-silver/

Four States Consider Lifting Taxes On Precious Metals:
https://schiffgold.com/commentaries/four-states-consider-lifting-taxes-on-precious-metals/

I think you're right. Coins have held up well when you consider the collapse of stamps , postcards and cigarette cards as hobbies . Coins will soon dissappear out of circulation same as those items but people are  still paying record prices for them.  I think the reason is , as previously stated , people start to stack gold/silver as an edge against inflation etc then get bored and move on to numersmatic stuff. Maybe they move back to stacking but either way prices are still holding strong.  At the end of the day. Postcards, stamps. Football programmes, cigarette cards are just bits of paper.  But gold is gold. 

I've been the same up to a couple of years ago  I only had 3 proofs in my collection..which I got at a good price around spot price... but got side tracked buying Jubilee and memorial proof sovereigns and sets , all together I have spent around £10,000 on these proof sovereigns ... I still think these are a good buy for the future..But no more proofs for me from now on ...back to buying bullion as I originally started 

I've been the same up to a couple of years ago  I only had 3 proofs in my collection..which I got at a good price around spot price... but got side tracked buying Jubilee and memorial proof sovereigns and sets , all together I have spent around £10,000 on these proof sovereigns ... I still think these are a good buy for the future..But no more proofs for me from now on ...back to buying bullion as I originally started 

I've been the same up to a couple of years ago  I only had 3 proofs in my collection..which I got at a good price around spot price... but got side tracked buying Jubilee and memorial proof sovereigns and sets , all together I have spent around £10,000 on these proof sovereigns ... I still think these are a good buy for the future..But no more proofs for me from now on ...back to buying bullion as I originally started 

I've been the same up to a couple of years ago  I only had 3 proofs in my collection..which I got at a good price around spot price... but got side tracked buying Jubilee and memorial proof sovereigns and sets , all together I have spent around £10,000 on these proof sovereigns ... I still think these are a good buy for the future..But no more proofs for me from now on ...back to buying bullion as I originally started 

I've been the same up to a couple of years ago  I only had 3 proofs in my collection..which I got at a good price around spot price... but got side tracked buying Jubilee and memorial proof sovereigns and sets , all together I have spent around £10,000 on these proof sovereigns ... I still think these are a good buy for the future..But no more proofs for me from now on ...back to buying bullion as I originally started 

I've been the same up to a couple of years ago  I only had 3 proofs in my collection..which I got at a good price around spot price... but got side tracked buying Jubilee and memorial proof sovereigns and sets , all together I have spent around £10,000 on these proof sovereigns ... I still think these are a good buy for the future..But no more proofs for me from now on ...back to buying bullion as I originally started 

I like this guys take on world events. 
he always seems to have a balanced view on things.
 
 

10 mins in mate take it for what its worth
 

https://youtu.be/1fsMqYqHnN0?si=qallJFC3CZCpustz
What do we offer? Debt and war?

No China is not better.
Putin tried to sort out his problems peacefully many times before war but was ignored. All he wanted was no more nato expansion and to stay out of Ukraine. 
The parts he's taken was the bits Ukraine was bombing from 2014. CNN and the media was reporting the bombing with civilians saying they were not part of Ukraine for they'd done to them. Plenty of news reports on YouTube of it in 2014.
Lots of nazis in Ukraine government also well documented before the war and he's jailing all of his political opponents 

Shell Becomes Latest To Suspend Red Sea Shipments After Two Fresh Houthi Attacks On Tankers:
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/two-fresh-houthi-attacks-tankers-red-sea-one-suffers-direct-missile-strike

I agree, but his WEF connections make me suspicious of him.

Why do we need an aircraft carrier out there anyway? No need to project any power out there. Perfectly good air base just down the road (already being used) …. Akrotiri😮🤔

Latest Congressional Can-Kick Delays Debt Ceiling Doom Until March:
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/latest-congressional-can-kick-delays-debt-ceiling-doom-until-march

Looking at my paltry 8 sovs I want more discount (Sorry)so  I hope it keeps going. Picking up a Sov at the end of this month when I’m struggling due to other commitments would be amazing and if if drops lower again in Feb then there is a good chance I’ll be able to pick up 3 sovs. Buying at the top has been a struggle but needed to be done. Gotta start somewhere!

£382 sovs
https://www.ukbullion.com/british-full-sovereign-gold-coin-22ct.html

More Golden (and Black-Gold) Proof: The Dollar is Totally Screwed:
https://goldswitzerland.com/more-golden-and-black-gold-proof-the-dollar-is-totally-screwed/