Matched betting, Bonus bagging, Arbing, gubbing & Bookie Bashing

[sovereignsteve]

2 minutes ago, vand said:

I've only been doing it for a part of this year, but from what I understand it is a little harder now as the bookies are a lot more wary, probably because of the rise of services such as "Profit Accumulator" which has affected the betting industry in a not insignificant way.  

In which case, all I can say is that.. last year must have been like shooting fish in a barrel, because despite I'm finding it a very profitable venture thus far..

I haven't done it for a few years as it started getting too much like hard work and I had been limited by most of the UK bookies. Also the US offshore industry started getting harder when a lot of them refused UK punters when the government chenged the law a while ago. I still hadn't touched dozens of bookies at that time though.

[HighlandTiger]

20 minutes ago, sovereignsteve said:

. Money that used to belong to the bookies.

Errrr no. It was money that used to belong to other punters. The more the money cycles around, the more goes into the bookies satchel. 

[sovereignsteve]

Just now, HighlandTiger said:

Errrr no. It was money that used to belong to other punters. The more the money cycles around, the more goes into the bookies satchel. 

Well yes if you want to be pedantic that is true, but it did belong in the bookies profit column before I got my hands on it.

I agree, the bookies will make money from the vast majority of punters who are mugs. However, if you are disciplined with your matched betting you can syphon off your share of their profits totally risk free.

[sovereignsteve]

7 minutes ago, HighlandTiger said:

 

pmsl, Like I said I USED TO BE A BOOKIE.

I've forgotten more about the gambling industry, book creation, odds and statistics, than you will ever learn. If you think you can make a nice living from the bookies, then feel free to try. You won't be the only one who thinks they can do it, you won't be the last. (hence the reason most bookies are rich).

I have put this challenge out to many people on here, and i have yet to have anyone come back to me saying they are in profit.

The challenge is for one year to log all your bets. In one column, you write down all the cash you put on at the bookies, online casinos, real casinos, National Lottery, scratchcards, bets with mates, FOBT's, Fruit machines etc etc etc. (no cheating, you write down EVERYTHING)

In the second column you put all the winnings you have had put back into your pocket or bank account that has not been spent on any form of gambling.

I can guarantee that 99.9% of people will discover they have lost money

I have had friends in the past, who have done this, even ones who think they are regularly winning, who have been surprised at the results.

 

Like I said, feel free to believe you have an edge over a bookie, (you havn't) but I guarantee in your lifetime, you will have lost more money than you have won.

 

Each to their own though......

I could easily take that challenge but TBH I couldn't be bothered. I have nothing to gain by doing so. and would take a shed load of work to collate into a sharable format.

I think I still have my record books of every "bet" I ever placed while matched betting. It would run into several thousands over 3 or 4 notebooks. Each one with a profit/loss against it and a list of all the bonueses taken from each  bookie.

I know many people who have done the same.

I say 'bet' but I have never actually placed a gambling bet, every one was matched or arbed off.

I can guarantee that I will be in your 0.1% and to the tune of 5 figures.

[jayboat]

6 hours ago, sovereignsteve said:

I could easily take that challenge but TBH I couldn't be bothered. I have nothing to gain by doing so. and would take a shed load of work to collate into a sharable format.

I think I still have my record books of every "bet" I ever placed while matched betting. It would run into several thousands over 3 or 4 notebooks. Each one with a profit/loss against it and a list of all the bonueses taken from each  bookie.

I know many people who have done the same.

I say 'bet' but I have never actually placed a gambling bet, every one was matched or arbed off.

I can guarantee that I will be in your 0.1% and to the tune of 5 figures.

I could also do the same for the last 6 years with my excel sheets. Also, in the 0.1% with 5 figure total profits. I also have around 30 emails from different bookmakers that say i am a non-profitable player and that i'm either limited to peanuts are have my account closed.  

There are hundreds of people on moneysavingexpert that would also keep records. There's not much effort required to make a second income. A few can do it full time and pull in a grand a week doing every offer under the sun, i think you would need alot of drive to achieve those numbers and i dont think i could be bothered with offers that make under a fiver, you can do more than that from a good arb. 

When push comes to shove and your using bonus money that the bookmaker has gave you to place your back bets, you cant lose. Its like flipping a coin were you win either side except the bookmaker is putting up half the money. They can be beaten to the point they close your account. You can arb the crap out of them and I mean destroy them, banging through £4000-6000ish worth of horsey race bets everyday, giving them a daily pounding for £200-300 until they give in and wave the white flag.  

Ohhhh, the bookies can be beaten with no offers attached.

 

Just as a point of interest, My total exposure are risk of you will over the past 6 years total's 1.37 million pounds. That's a crazy sum of money but im happy for my single digit  profit that has been used to pay a chunk of the mortage, go on a few nice holidays to thailand with the wife and more recently adding oz's to my silver stack. 

 

 

[vand]

12 hours ago, HighlandTiger said:

 

pmsl, Like I said I USED TO BE A BOOKIE.

I've forgotten more about the gambling industry, book creation, odds and statistics, than you will ever learn. If you think you can make a nice living from the bookies, then feel free to try. You won't be the only one who thinks they can do it, you won't be the last. (hence the reason most bookies are rich).

I have put this challenge out to many people on here, and i have yet to have anyone come back to me saying they are in profit.

The challenge is for one year to log all your bets. In one column, you write down all the cash you put on at the bookies, online casinos, real casinos, National Lottery, scratchcards, bets with mates, FOBT's, Fruit machines etc etc etc. (no cheating, you write down EVERYTHING)

In the second column you put all the winnings you have had put back into your pocket or bank account that has not been spent on any form of gambling.

I can guarantee that 99.9% of people will discover they have lost money

I have had friends in the past, who have done this, even ones who think they are regularly winning, who have been surprised at the results.

 

Like I said, feel free to believe you have an edge over a bookie, (you havn't) but I guarantee in your lifetime, you will have lost more money than you have won.

 

Each to their own though......

I have logged every single bet I've made. But I won't be sharing it.. sensitive information, innit. 

The first step in beating a system is to understand how it operates, and what gives makes the system work in the first place.... you may have worked for a bookie and claim to know it inside out, but imo if you think the industry can't be beaten then you don't really understand how it works in the first place. 

It can't be beaten if you play by the rules they want you to (put your money on who you think will win), but it CAN be beaten if you don't care at all about the outcome and bet according to price and value and/or make additional bets to guarantee profit.

 

And for the record, I have never brought a lottery ticket or stuck even so much as a 10p into a slot machine.

[vand]

Bet365's famous risk-free £50 inplay offer returns this weekend:

http://extra.bet365.com/promotions/en/soccer/premier-league-in-play-bet-offer

Easy to extract about £40 from this.

[Paul]

Ive been hit with Bet365's giant Christmas gubbing stick a few weeks ago  

[vand]

Yeah, I've lost most of my accounts, despite only doing this for less than a year! Bottom line is that bookies will weed out anyone who is profitable and takes too much value and restricts or close their accounts. I'm not going to do their risk-free offer because the account is too valuable to me for its racing book.

I mostly rely on in-shop bets for EW arbing or Extra place offers now. Luckily as I live in London I can hit just about any postcode and be within spitting distance of all the major bookies. It's a lot of extra legwork, but there is money to be made if you are prepared to do it, and besides, it gets me out of the house/office for some exercise.

Eventually I think once I lose the remaining couple of good online accounts I have I'll re-sign under relatives' details and get myself set up with a VPS, but I think in-shop bets are a very valuable way of slipping under the radar and getting your money down onto races where there is value.

[Scuzzle]

I recently signed up to Ladbrokes to get a Topcashback offer, you deposit and play through a tenner and they give you £35 cashback back but they renaged on it and refused to honor the cashback,

[SoulUK]

I recently signed up to Ladbrokes to get a Topcashback offer, you deposit and play through a tenner and they give you £35 cashback back but they renaged on it and refused to honor the cashback,

This is why I stopped using topcashback. They've had too many of the sites not come through with the offer and when you log a ticket it can take 6months + and it's a case of me vs the bookie. And like gambling the bookie wins.

Trying to get into matched betting myself. Oddsmonkey is nice and useful

Sent from my SM-G925F using Tapatalk

[sovereignsteve]

5 hours ago, Paul said:

Ive been hit with Bet365's giant Christmas gubbing stick a few weeks ago  

I actually lasted over 2 years with B365 and that was with doing their daily C4 races 4/1 offer nearly every day. Nice run and a nice offer, steady £10 - £15 every day. I think I still have a viable Victors account, they send me the occasional offer but I haven't placed a bet for 4 - 5 years I should think.

[jayboat]

Oddsmonkey is deffo my favorite.

If you are just beginning use the free version, reason being the odds any change every 30 mins are so were as the premium version is almost live. When starting out the live odds would be over whelming and annoying, you could have just deposited money at a bookie and the odds change. You need to be deadly quick to arb. I run off 2 screens with about 7-8 tabs opened, zoned in. I would do all the sign up offers and build a float, consider this time your schooling were you build your foundation skills. After that most people give up and quit and the rest go thier own way. I like to do arb bets, some only do refund offers, others will just wait for new bookies to open and very few will do all the above. 

On topcashback, i did very well on the casino and bingo offers about £300 with bout 5-6 hours. I was already signed up to all the bookies so no feedback on that. 

4 minutes ago, sovereignsteve said:

I actually lasted over 2 years with B365 and that was with doing their daily C4 races 4/1 offer nearly every day. Nice run and a nice offer, steady £10 - £15 every day. I think I still have a viable Victors account, they send me the occasional offer but I haven't placed a bet for 4 - 5 years I should think.

Yeah, bout both your wifes (if you have) have accounts as well, right?

[sovereignsteve]

I must confess, my wife did have an account as well, but that was when she actually had another legitimate address

[Ravinella]

Wow there is some interesting stuff written on here, some of it true and accurate and some of it the biggest load of rollocks ever put in print.

The problem with threads like these is there are too many gereralisations..like just take the one "you cant beat the bookies".....not true it depends what at.

I could name you at least 20 bookies who have gone bankrupt in less than a minute over the last few years and if you want to go back over 25 years years or so a hell of a lot more than that.

"Cant beat the Casino" true assuming as above we are talking over the long term at least 20 years or so.........why because the casino ALWAYS has the mathematical leading edge over the punter over a long enough time.

Where you can beat the bookie and consistently too is in things like Horse Racing, Football result betting,rugby result betting etc.

The easiest way to win money gambling as most people call it,though I prefer to call it investing is playing poker ie where you dont play the bookie or casino owner at all but you play,beat and get money from poker players who arent as good at the game as you are.

Huge subject go on for hours but forget trying to beat the casino at table games,slots,blackjack,spin the wheel,roulette etc you will never beat the casinos edge.Play poker against worse players than you and you can live a good life solely off your winnings..........play against better players than you though then obviously you'll lose.

Anyone who doesnt believe you can bankrupt the bookies,some of em,at horse racing read a book written by an ex aquaintance of mine called "Enemy Number One" by Patrick Veitch who has won millions at it....pick up a second hand copy on amazon for a quid I think,or could about a year ago when I last looked.

Fasinating subject and been involved with it most of my adult life and I'm the wrong side of sixty now.

To ask a question like can you live off bookies money is too broad a subject,you need to be specific,can you live off betting on horses answer is yes..........no place for generalised sweeping statements,have to be specific in your question again another example can you live a full life playing roulette answer no...........simple really.

Though it will be the hardest most time consuming thing that you will have ever put your mind to and only a very few have the emotional strength and stamina to do it

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[HelpingHands]

On ‎08‎/‎12‎/‎2016 at 16:55, sovereignsteve said:

I actually lasted over 2 years with B365 and that was with doing their daily C4 races 4/1 offer nearly every day. Nice run and a nice offer, steady £10 - £15 every day. I think I still have a viable Victors account, they send me the occasional offer but I haven't placed a bet for 4 - 5 years I should think.

@sovereignsteve   Do they need to win or do you just need to back them to win?

Back any single winner at 4/1 or more on any race televised live on Channel 4 and you can have a risk free bet to the same stake (up to £50*) on the next live Channel 4 race. This offer applies to the FIRST single bet placed by a customer on each live Channel 4 race.

[sovereignsteve]

10 minutes ago, HelpingHands said:

@sovereignsteve   Do they need to win or do you just need to back them to win?

 

 

there were usually two featured races a day, more on big meetings. if memory serves; if the horse you back wins you get a free bet on the next "featured C4 race" which can be later that day or the next. have to be careful with this aspect.

you either back and try to lay for as little loss as possible and then get a totally free bet, or, as i did, back and overlay so that if it lost you make a small profit, and if it wins you get your free bet but you then have to adjust your lay to compensate. I can't remember the exact maths but the method will be on the MB forums, I did have a matching spreadsheet that worked it all out. Doing the second method guaranteed about £4 - 6 I think per race depending on how good lay odds you got.

That's the gist but the detail I would have to revise.

[vand]

Online Poker is a very hard way to make money these days. You generally have to be in the top 10% or so of players to be profitable, and database software has eliminated anonimity, so good players know what to look out for. If it was easy for everyone to make money playing poker then everyone would still be doing it, the numbers would still be growing and High Stakes Poker would still be all the rage, but of course the reality is that like trading it is a zero sum game or worse.

The most profitable technique I employ is Each Way arbing and/or each way extra place offers. If you know what to look for then certain races (about 5-7%) are actually unprofitable for the bookie because they will pay out more on the each way book than they make on the win book. A really good race can have a 108% win book but might have an each way book of 220-230% on 3 paid places, meaning the bookie will payout £30 for every £22-23 they take on place results. I smash money as much money down on these races as I can, and it pays off handsomely. I can choose to hedge off some of the risk at the exchange, but frankly, these days I tend to be quite casual about hedging and just let the variance play out because I know how much value I'm getting.

Bookies know this weakness in their system and hate it, and will close your account if you do it too much. That is why I try to bet anonymously in shop as much as possible

[jayboat]

5 hours ago, sovereignsteve said:

there were usually two featured races a day, more on big meetings. if memory serves; if the horse you back wins you get a free bet on the next "featured C4 race" which can be later that day or the next. have to be careful with this aspect.

you either back and try to lay for as little loss as possible and then get a totally free bet, or, as i did, back and overlay so that if it lost you make a small profit, and if it wins you get your free bet but you then have to adjust your lay to compensate. I can't remember the exact maths but the method will be on the MB forums, I did have a matching spreadsheet that worked it all out. Doing the second method guaranteed about £4 - 6 I think per race depending on how good lay odds you got.

That's the gist but the detail I would have to revise.

Pretty much spot on from my memory also. Its a good offer. 

 

3 hours ago, vand said:

Online Poker is a very hard way to make money these days. You generally have to be in the top 10% or so of players to be profitable, and database software has eliminated anonimity, so good players know what to look out for. If it was easy for everyone to make money playing poker then everyone would still be doing it, the numbers would still be growing and High Stakes Poker would still be all the rage, but of course the reality is that like trading it is a zero sum game or worse.

I used to play alot around 10-12 years ago, in fact i still play alot now. I mean i was highly profitable 10-12 years ago and now i either lose a $50 deposit are withdraw $300-400 on a sunday night. It used to be like literally taking money from babies. You just had to sit and wait for a good hand and go all in, 80% of the time you got a caller, sucking people in was easy, check-call for 2 streets and all in on the river. You cant play like that anymore, you need to be aggressive and be pushing bets all the time. When you factor in the discipline needed not tilt, and blow your buy in. Its very different now and i would not recommend to anyone that this is a fail safe way to make money. My education in poker cost in the region of around 4k, most people will quit before they make it that point. 

I mostly play 9 seater tables now and play very passive. I read betting patterns and timing tells better now than back then but matched betting is still more profitable to me every year. Poker is more fun though  

Kinda just backing up vands post from my own expierince. 

[sovereignsteve]

4 minutes ago, jayboat said:

 Poker is more fun though  

Oh I don't know. it used to be exiting stuff and quite an adrenaline rush leaving the bets until the last few minutes when the odds are really moving. Chasing arbs and good matches on Betfair with the horses or dropping $1000 on a NFL game and matching it off on Matchbook or Pinnacle.

[jayboat]

34 minutes ago, sovereignsteve said:

Oh I don't know. it used to be exiting stuff and quite an adrenaline rush leaving the bets until the last few minutes when the odds are really moving. Chasing arbs and good matches on Betfair with the horses or dropping $1000 on a NFL game and matching it off on Matchbook or Pinnacle.

I  always get a buzz from arb'ing the crap outta the bookies till they will not accept my bets anymore. Banging £100 on a horse, then another £100, then doing the same with another horse in the same race. The trick to arbing horses is back/lay more than one horse per race. This means when you pick a winner, you dont pay commission on your other lossing horse(s). I used you rape 888, unibet and redbet something shocking. They all share the same odds and are every slow to react the odd changes, sometimes leaving windows open for an hour+. They all provided me with a profit of £200-£400 a day during 4-8 hour binges for many days each before they banned me, but my friends had accounts as well  I pure loved that feeling of punishing them for being slow to react and beating them. 

I think i love both for almost the same reasons. I guess they make me feel smart cause i can make money only using my mind and a computer and that makes me feel good either way. Matched betting my the bread and butter and poker is the sweet jam topping. 

 

[Ravinella]

Vand very important point and totally correct.........forget online poker completely unless as Vand says you are one of the greatest players in the world............I forgot to mention I was talking about playing live poker and LIVE poker only.

Preferably in Las Vegas cos the weather is alot better and every weekend some of the worstr poker players in the known universe turn up to play............just pick a good table and rejoice..............

[shawy2510]

Old thread but need some help on this small freebie bet.

 

Bet365 are offering a risk free bet on Athletico v Leicester tonight. Terms are place £50 as a bet before the game starts then £50 bet when the game starts, if the inplay bet loses when you get refunded the stake.

 

If you get that would this scenario work. Im thinking I have worked it out correct but just need clarification.

 

Me, £50 Athletico win prebet, £50 Draw inplay bet.

 

Sister, £50 Athletico win prebet, £50 Leicester win inplay bet.

 

If this happens these are possibilities?

 

Athletico win we both get £50+£15 winnings then returned £50 inplay stake so profiting £15 each

 

Draw - Sister wins £275 & loses prebet, I lose prebet but get returned inplay stake which leaves us around £60 each profit.

 

Leics win - I win £650 & prebet loses, sisters inplay bet gets returned so end up with £700 between us.

 

If that makes sense & works let me know [emoji4]

 

 

[daz]

it looks like it woud work ,  you have written the outcome down wrong for the draw but the outcome is the same . also you are presuming you get the same odds on your inplay bets that your making your calculations on pre game which might not be the case

[sovereignsteve]

Seems like a lot of faff for £15 return but with chance of bigger win.

What kind of offer is it? It's too convoluted and tight for a new account offer, so if that's the case, avoid.

If it's an offer for current members then I would still hesitate, if you just take up their specials, you'll soon get gubbed and lose your account.