Should I buy right now or wait till later this year?

[Blehhhh]

18 minutes ago, Roy said:

His commentary was free, wasn't it?

It is but if you follow to the unprofessional looking website you will see the goal is to get people to sign up to the $200 a quarter subscription service.

My favorite bit of the website is were they say by signing up you get a free 30 minute chat with the guy in the video. An absolute bargain because this guy usually costs $250 dollars per hour..... Ooooooooh, impressive.

[bluemoon]

18 minutes ago, Blehhhh said:

It is but if you follow to the unprofessional looking website you will see the goal is to get people to sign up to the $200 a quarter subscription service.

My favorite bit of the website is were they say by signing up you get a free 30 minute chat with the guy in the video. An absolute bargain because this guy usually costs $250 dollars per hour..... Ooooooooh, impressive.

Yeah these internet gurus are so plastic. One dangerous thing about them (among many) is that they make money by creating eye-pulling content, so that motive means content could be inaccurate as long as it's content that sounds knowledgeable and can pull punters. Content like "Gold is finished" during a bull run to get our attention, or "Gold to the moon" during a bear run. The internet is a decadent place and all the worse for celeb-style internet gurus.

[Blehhhh]

2 minutes ago, bluemoon said:

Yeah these internet gurus are so plastic. One dangerous thing about them (among many) is that they make money by creating eye-pulling content, so that motive means content could be inaccurate as long as it's content that sounds knowledgeable and can pull punters. Content like "Gold is finished" during a bull run to get our attention, and "Gold to the moon" during a bear run. The internet is a decadent place and all the worse for celeb-style internet gurus.

Yep, get a graph, draw a few lines on it and say some big words.

250 euro please.

[KDave]

42 minutes ago, Blehhhh said:

It is but if you follow to the unprofessional looking website you will see the goal is to get people to sign up to the $200 a quarter subscription service.

My favorite bit of the website is were they say by signing up you get a free 30 minute chat with the guy in the video. An absolute bargain because this guy usually costs $250 dollars per hour..... Ooooooooh, impressive.

I was a member of his premium service back end of 2015 to 2016, he is not a scam artist he made me a bit of money on junior gold stock picks during the rise in 2016 and called when to sell, it was only a few quid per month back then when he was just starting out. I would not pay $400 per year for his stock picks. I think if you are paying that much its for the trading alerts.

I have a lot of time for his work, his long term calls have been very good and he shares it for free on youtube!

[KDave]

More importantly, ideas from the video I drew a few things, all opinion of course;

1. CRB Commodities index vs Gold (bottom of the chart 5 mins in) has gone vertical - commodities are cheap, gold is expensive - I am leaving physical gold alone for now, buying the commodities, my picks are oil and silver, also the gold miners which are still cheap.

2. Gold paper price per ounce has made a move akin to 2011. The gold mining stocks are not supporting the rise, as in 2011. Gold moved up $500 while miners went sideways in 2011, Gold has move up $400 and miners have moved sideways to down in this rise - it is another signal of a top that will not be seen again for a while potentially. 

3. I believe I see a Cup and Handle forming, the Cup between 2011 and 2020, the handle will build to the downside over the next 2-4 years, then we are off to races mid 2020's. This ties in with the work I have seen on liquidity, expected inflation and interest rates rising in the mid to later part of the 20's. It means we potentially have a few more years to continue building our positions.

4. Perhaps gold has another $100+ dollars in it this year, after which it will start to retrace back towards $1450 to form the handle, OR if the bulls win out at that point and the move significantly breaks the previous dollar high then the retrace will be to $1900 as the new support, either way its all buying the dips from here for me one way or the other, whether back towards $1450 an ounce or retraces to $1900+ an ounce, we will see. No point chasing at this point the risk reward is not there. All IMO not advice. 

[HawkHybrid]

3 minutes ago, KDave said:

2. Gold paper price per ounce has made a move akin to 2011. The gold mining stocks are not supporting the rise, as in 2011. Gold moved up $500 while miners went sideways in 2011, Gold has move up $400 and miners have moved sideways to down in this rise - it is another signal of a top that will not be seen again for a while potentially. 

 

imo this is the most important take away. for people who think multi

decade mining majors(accountable for the lions share of the worlds

yearly physical gold mined) have got it wrong about the gold price,

maybe they should educate these miners about how the current gold

bull market will produce higher prices for this year, and the next, and

for many years to come?

 

HH

[Stuntman]

Interesting points, thanks for taking the trouble to distil and share.

(I am not close to the prices of gold miners, but...) might this be an opportunity to buy the miners?  My hypothesis: mining shares are being battered in line with the shares of businesses generally.  Given that (again, in my opinion) the medium term market conditions look very favourable for the gold price (increase in safe haven demand, very low opportunity cost of lost interest), would a smart investor be picking up a value opportunity in mining shares now?

It certainly appears tempting to me 😉 

[Chorlton]

As suggested above the key things to bear in mind are where alternative investments are going and the initial purpose behind holding gold.

[KDave]

Spurred on by the 'is GSR useful' thread I have checked a few ratio's, they are not much use alone but interesting anyway.

Gold to Oil ratio - gold is looking pricey, notice if you will, the parabolic move to all time highs;

Dow to Gold ratio. Although this is a very long chart I would like to think there is a head and shoulders pattern forming in the DOW to gold? Do such patterns even apply over these time frames I don't know;

A closer look.

If we run with it - the first shoulder formed early 2013 to late 2016. The head was 3 years 2016 to 2019, falling to form the second shoulder, which in theory would involve a similar 2-3 year process. This could be achieved either by gold moving lower or stocks moving higher, or a combination of the two over the timeframe. 

Given the other chart we have seen today, the Gold in USD looking to develop another pattern, a Cup and Handle, with a handle that will take between 2-3 years to form, perhaps this is further confirmation that gold is going to retrace back to $1450 over the timeframe rather than breakout through the $1900 level. But we will have to wait and see. 

[RacerCool]

On 14/04/2020 at 07:57, AurumArgenti said:

Lots of media and influencers saying recession and possibly a depression on the card's.

They're already debasing the currencies across the globe.

Housing market crisis and a few bank's collapsing? 

If you haven't any exposure to gold it might be prudent to buy some?

 

Yes, the way they're printing money by the trillions now (and they're not done yet) due to this pandemic event, I don't see how that's a good thing long term. I've been turning paper dollars into gold like it's going extinct.