The Element Of Doubt

[Keithoil]

We all know HT has jumped ship, and has gone to gold, not fully but more gold than silver.

 

With this last massive price drop how many more of us are calling into question should I buy or not. The markets are now closed so you have the weekend to think about it.

 

Me personally if it drops I will fill my boots so to speak.

 

I put a large order in on Friday for 70 oz, got in at £10.04, would have waited but I had to go out.

 

We are all down on our silver now the question, is this the bottom or a just small retrace, and then BANG down she goes again.

 

What will you do.

[HelpingHands]

This drop has made me less likely to buy gold. I think that can now drop by a further % than silver and I think there are fewer semi-numi gold options to hedge with.

I still intend to get some more of both though.

[Danny-boy]

This drop has made me less likely to buy gold. I think that can now drop by a further % than silver and I think there are fewer semi-numi gold options to hedge with.

I still intend to get some more of both though.

A very good point in my opinion.

[Shamatti]

No difference, continue with the gold/silver purchases but at a lower cost, meaning adding more than I would have.

 

 

Ratios are up above 72.6 which is huge. There are those that would tell you to buy silver now exclusively, and wait for the ratios to drop. Then exchange to gold.

 

Think about it. 1 ounce of gold = 72 ounces of silver.

 

Lets say you buy 72 ounces and wait for the ratio to drop back to 60. You only have to sell 60 ounces of silver to get your  ounce of gold, leaving you with a 12 ounce silver profit effectively for free.

 

It is time to be buying silver, not gold.

[Fluttershy]

as I`m very well hedged against silver and can make at least 4x what I paid for it anytime I like (and I do), by exploiting it`s duality as an Industrial metal as well as a financial asset, I`m still all in for Slver.

 

Gold is a different beast, and alloyed it`s a nightmare to work with (I`d swear the stuff hates me), when it`s 24k it`s ok to work with, but the cost is just too much for what you get, £24 a gram and being a dense metal (nearly 2x that of silver) you really have nothing to show for quite a large outlay.

and so unless I tried to exploit it as a industrial metal I couldn`t command the same price multiplier that i can with silver, so i`m out on gold for now.

 

having said that, my plan was a year of silver and year of gold, so comes next April I`ll start buying Gold for a year, just for the financial asset side. I thik the price has a lot of wiggle room and could come down a bit more by then too, who knows?

[HighlandTiger]

Lets say you buy 72 ounces and wait for the ratio to drop back to 60. You only have to sell 60 ounces of silver to get your  ounce of gold, leaving you with a 12 ounce silver profit effectively for free.

 

 

 

Just a point to make about that, whilst if you quoting spot prices that may be true, if you are talking about the real world them I'm afraid the figures are a little different

 

If we say we can get gold at 3% premium £755.26 per oz (HGM), (ignore delivery for now), and the cheapest silver is currently at (STG) 23% over spot £12.45 per oz, then the current real life ratio to us is more like 60 already.

 

The current ratio of 72, means that if you sold your coins at spot, you'd get £727, That won't get you enough to buy 1 oz of gold I'm afraid

[Shamatti]

Just a point to make about that, whilst if you quoting spot prices that may be true, if you are talking about the real world them I'm afraid the figures are a little different

 

If we say we can get gold at 3% premium £755.26 per oz (HGM), (ignore delivery for now), and the cheapest silver is currently at (STG) 23% over spot £12.45 per oz, then the current real life ratio to us is more like 60 already.

 

The current ratio of 72, means that if you sold your coins at spot, you'd get £727, That won't get you enough to buy 1 oz of gold I'm afraid

 

You don't seem to understand trading ratios:

 

Of course, with commission and differing premiums it is unlikely to be viable at lower volumes like a single ounce of gold - my post was for illustration purposes only! But with a modest amount of bullion it is worth while keeping in mind.

http://www.investopedia.com/articles/trading/09/gold-silver-ration.asp

[HighlandTiger]

You don't seem to understand trading ratios:

 

Of course, with commission and differing premiums it is unlikely to be viable at lower volumes like a single ounce of gold - my post was for illustration purposes only! But with a modest amount of bullion it is worth while keeping in mind.

http://www.investopedia.com/articles/trading/09/gold-silver-ration.asp

 

Oh I do understand trading ratios, (and also condescending attitudes), but we are talking in this thread about what WE would do with OUR buying patterns in the current climate. I was just making a point that if we are to use these ratios to dictate our buying patterns we have to take into consideration the costs we have to de deal with the real world, not some hypothetical one.

 

My point is valid, and did not need you to attempt whatever you thought you were attempting to do. Feel free to reply, but I've made my point and will add no more to it.

 

[motorbikez]

I'm still buying silver proofs if I can get them, the drop in spot  has not made any difference to the more exotic stuff I'm chasing. I'd be pleased to pay 10-20 times spot per oz for some of coins I'm after.

 

In my eyes for anyone buying bullion coins, they are cheap as chips at the moment & they may get cheaper but just keep buying monthly if it is purely for investment and lower your averages. Or look at semi numi which is moving down with spot and get those coins you have lusted after cheaper as they are still effected by  spot movements although to a lesser degree.

[Shamatti]

Oh I do understand trading ratios, (and also condescending attitudes), but we are talking in this thread about what WE would do with OUR buying patterns in the current climate. I was just making a point that if we are to use these ratios to dictate our buying patterns we have to take into consideration the costs we have to de deal with the real world, not some hypothetical one.

 

My point is valid, and did not need you to attempt whatever you thought you were attempting to do. Feel free to reply, but I've made my point and will add no more to it.

 

 

Well, I have traded the ratios to my great advantage in the past. Just thought I would share that option with others here. It is possible and lucrative even for us mere mortals. You just need to know what you are doing.

[HighlandTiger]

It appears my post has gone over the head of Sham. Oh well....lol

[a_a]

I don't care if it goes to £3/oz I am buying all the way down, no sweat. Happy to wait a few decades for the next silver bubble if I have to

[Danny-boy]

It appears my post has gone over the head of Sham. Oh well....lol

Probably for the best.

Also note the "independent" member posting about you pair always arguing....

I do wonder how many others feel the same and either don't post up or just leave.

Warning points pending if things don't improve, I'm sick of it.

[motorbikez]

Thanks for that Danny so am I.

[BaldyBob]

You can't totally ignore gold at these prices either. You may kick yourself in the spring, remembering when you could have had an ounce Lunar Horse for under £760.

 

However, with silver dropping , I have to keep buying all the way to the bottom, even if it means exceeding my initial planned stack size.

 

The question is: bulk up on Phil's or take advantage of the prices of some of the higher end bullion items?

[Dave]

Now is the time to look out for premium silver, proofs and limited mintage coins, in silver but not so much in gold . This is the time for looking out for people trading in premium for bullion ,

[Danny-boy]

Now is the time to look out for premium silver, proofs and limited mintage coins, in silver but not so much in gold . This is the time for looking out for people trading in premium for bullion ,

Very good point Dave, however people don't seem to be doing so from what I can see, not at a decent price anyway.

[HighlandTiger]

Very good point Dave, however people don't seem to be doing so from what I can see, not at a decent price anyway.

 

Hence my questions yesterday, about certain proofs...........

[CatStudent]

I think that speaking about phisical metals the GSR is useful to know what is cheaper, gold or silver, and if our personal stack is well balanced use this information to decide the next buy. This way we will have bought cheaper silver and cheaper gold in the long run.

But in order to trade to take beneffit from passing from Au to Ag, or reverse, phisical coins have too much hidden costs (premium, vat, shipping, ...). Remember: stacking is for insurance, speculating with GSR is better done with BullionVault or similars.

[HighlandTiger]

I think ignoring cheap gold, just because silver is perceived to be relatively cheaper against an arbitary scale, could mean missing out of an investment opportunity.

 

I see no reason not to buy either at the moment.

 

Fill your boots with both all the way down I say.

[Dave]

Deals are out there, just have to put time and energy in , picked up a coin on Thursday that I had been tracking for over 6 months on ebay. Now is the time to try your luck with cheeky offers, a lot of people want to release money for cheap bullion, but when this low blows over ( early December by my guesstimate ) premium coins will still hold there value, price of spot has very little bearing on the collector market, this is something to keep in mind if you want to play the game , P.s didn't join the forum to see members get into a pissing match at every opportunity , sometimes the best comments are the ones you keep to yourself

[HelpingHands]

Now is the time to look out for premium silver, proofs and limited mintage coins, in silver but not so much in gold . This is the time for looking out for people trading in premium for bullion ,

Very good point Dave, however people don't seem to be doing so from what I can see, not at a decent price anyway.

I may be the opposite here.

I think the closer to the bottom we are the more likely I'd buy the cheapest bullion. Now could be the time to take a profit on premium stuff and get as many ozs as possible.

The problem being is I don't know where the bottom is. I'd also question myself on whether semi-numis are useful not just on drops but also on very long sideways trends.

[Dave]

Just as a for instance, if you had bought 10 x 1oz Chinese pandas, Rwanda wildlife, Perth Lunars , 3or 4 years ago, how would you stand now with this drop in spot price ? And if spot had gone to $30.00 this week How would you stand. All I'm saying is that popular national mint coins bought at release time with very small premium above spot are your best hedge against spot fluctuations , these are the coins I would buy now (2015 releases) to insure myself in the future. I learned the hard way years back, buying phillies , eagles maples and 1 oz bars ect, It's very hard to look at your stack and see its value reduce by the day/week

[HelpingHands]

Yes I agree that semi-numis were the correct purchases three years ago but are they the correct purchase now? I'd say less so.

[Paul]

with the option now of STG and the almost VAT free prices they can charge, we didnt have that option a few years back.

 

Would i be buying philharmonics now at £12.45

or should i pay £1.40 extra per coin for the 2015 kookaburra £13.85

 

You deduct the actual value/cost of a lighthouse capsule of 50p your actually paying £13.35 per coin

 

Forward the clock three years to 2017.  Regardless what spot is you phils/maples will be worth a 98% of spot selling to a dealer

The 2015 kookas will be worth...................hhhhmmmmm .....................DISCUSS(!)

 

Easy to sell private sales

Easy to swap/trade

Established date run

Perth mint quality manufacture

25th anniversary edition

Beautiful design

Capped mintage of 500k

Bought in x20 foiled rolls - very easy to sell in same fashion, option to spilt them to single coin sales (cant say that with 10oz or kilo coins)