Sirius minerals shares

[kimchi]

I am no expert at all, by any stretch of the imagination, so I shall only say that something has not seemed 'quite right' to me here with these shares for the last six months or so, in this case perhaps what it says on the tin is 'not quite' what is actually inside.

@KDave I agree, anyone looking to use their home as equity their home etc to 'support the project' is nuts, imvho. It certainly did bring the dream to the local people, and it's so close now (just a couple of VERY strange moves imo making it look like it may fail). Anyone cashing out now (unless they absolutely need to feed their families) at such a low price is mad imo.

I am holding. I'm happy to hold. I have little choice pretty much at what I bought in at, but I still remain positive given the 'unlikely' events (or perhaps to an extent because of them) recently that have crashed the price down.

[ittle5huggy]

If this was a dead dog would the MD yesterday have bought 250,000 of them @ 4.0088p = £10022 quid.. this is a HOLD for me,  forward sold I don't remember but Millions of tons on a take or pay basis so has an order book worth a few quid  

[ittle5huggy]

4 minutes ago, ittle5huggy said:

If this was a dead dog would the MD yesterday have bought 250,000 of them @ 4.0088p = £10022 quid.. this is a HOLD for me,  forward sold I don't remember but Millions of tons on a take or pay basis so has an order book worth a few quid  

I Should add it was a Trust that the MD is a beneficiary of.

 

[KDave]

3 hours ago, ittle5huggy said:

If this was a dead dog would the MD yesterday have bought 250,000 of them @ 4.0088p = £10022 quid.. this is a HOLD for me,  forward sold I don't remember but Millions of tons on a take or pay basis so has an order book worth a few quid  

MD = Management Director? What is income of the MD. Is £10,000 really a lot of money to someone earning hundreds of thousands a year, I don't think so. A good attempt to spur on sentiment though. 

Order book is worthless without product to sell. 

I would look to the comments by Rich, the fundamentals for the site are good if there is a neighbouring mine with far higher overheads producing the same stuff. The question is if they can get funding before the money runs out in March. I imagine they will be bought out for not very much money if that is not the case. It is a good sign in a way that the mine can not get funding, as it is a contrarian buy signal for the sector, I would say for agricultural commodities. If the banks don't want to invest then its a good contrarian signal to start buying yourself, though I would not do it with start ups or small companies look to the bigger ones that will survive this environment and will likely buy out companies like Sirius. All imo what do I know.

I hope it goes well at Siruis, likely this was done to allow some investors to get on board or to set up the buyout by a bigger company, morally wrong perhaps by the management, but it is the way of the world at the moment, ruthless and mercenary. Hopefully this idea is wrong and funding is secured, more likely I think share issue to save the company or an offer will come in from above at the new price?

[ittle5huggy]

7 minutes ago, KDave said:

I would look to the comments by Rich, the fundamentals for the site are good if there is a neighbouring mine with far higher overheads producing the same stuff.

may I ask which one ? and who so I can go buy 😀

[KDave]

1 minute ago, ittle5huggy said:

may I ask which one ? and who so I can go buy 😀

Go back a page pal 

[KDave]

By fundamentals for the site I am talking about the apparently endless supply of potash and related products the mine was trying to tap into. Larger companies will be well aware of the potential here if there is another mine with decades of profit behind it.

[ittle5huggy]

7 minutes ago, KDave said:

Go back a page pal 

Have and ??????

[ittle5huggy]

24 minutes ago, KDave said:

if there is a neighbouring mine

IF is a very big word....so where is it ?????????

[KDave]

28 minutes ago, ittle5huggy said:

IF is a very big word....so where is it ?????????

DYOR comes to mind mate. Go back a page and read what Rich wrote, he names the mine. Good luck. 

[ittle5huggy]

2 minutes ago, KDave said:

DYOR comes to mind mate.

never used the comment ... how about helping me with my thinking and quoting what you mean.... if you wouldn't mind pretty please.

[KDave]

1 minute ago, ittle5huggy said:

never used the comment ... how about helping me with my thinking and quoting what you mean.... if you wouldn't mind pretty please.

I'll leave you to it shagger 👍

[richatthecroft]

Nice overview of the Boulby mine here:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boulby_Mine

And also a nice overview of Sirius Minerals  Woodsmith Site can be found in the article below.  

In the article, there’s a fair bit of detail about the mineral transport tunnel- this method of transporting the Polyhalite through a 20 odd mile tunnel North, up to Tees-port is outlined.  

My understanding/ research of Sirius’ difficulties are that they are resultant of the set up costs of this extremely technically challenging and clearly, very costly tunneling project however, without this method of shifting the Polyhalite (and byproducts) up the road, the planners would never have provided planning permission to Sirius,  if heavy haulage was the solution to moving it.  So unfortunately, this mammoth tunneling project, are key to the projects existence. 

Essentially, the mine being inside the North Yorkshire National Park is its costly downfall.  

Boulby hasn’t required to be environmentally friendly, the project commenced in a different age environmentally, and being 10 or 15 miles or so North of Whitby, and not as scenic and crucially, not in a protected National Park, it continues to be more acceptable, to transport its minerals above ground.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Woodsmith_Mine

If this project can get sufficient funding to get over this infrastructure hurdle, there will be a  very slick operation in place to mine and transport this lucrative mineral extremely efficiently.

None of my ramblings above constitute investment advice.  Please do your own research. 

 

[ittle5huggy]

29 minutes ago, richatthecroft said:

Nice overview of the Boulby mine here:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boulby_Mine

And also a nice overview of Sirius Minerals  Woodsmith Site can be found in the article below.  

In the article, there’s a fair bit of detail about the mineral transport tunnel- this method of transporting the Polyhalite through a 20 odd mile tunnel up to Tees-port is outlined.  

My understanding/ research of Sirius’ difficulties are that they are resultant of the set up costs of this extremely technically challenging and clearly, very costly tunneling project however, without this method of shifting the Polyhalite (and byproducts) up the road, the planners would never have provided permission to Sirius if heavy haulage was the solution to moving it.  So unfortunately, this mammoth tunneling project, are key to the projects existence. 

Essentially, the mine being inside the North Yorkshire National Park is its costly downfall.  Boulby hasn’t required to be environmentally friendly, the project commenced in a different age environmentally, and being 10 or 15 miles or so North of Whitby, and not as scenic and crucially, not in a protected National Park, it continues to be more acceptable, to transport its minerals above ground.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Woodsmith_Mine

If this project can get sufficient funding to get over this infrastructure hurdle, there will be a  very slick operation in place to mine and transport this lucrative mineral. 

 

Good article... reading and digesting again Ithink

[ittle5huggy]

My final comment on this... so if ICI as was comes in they have to buy the right as a share holder I have the right to say sod off till "The Price is Right"

 

[kimchi]

15 hours ago, ittle5huggy said:

My final comment on this... so if ICI as was comes in they have to buy the right as a share holder I have the right to say sod off till "The Price is Right"

 

Happy to be corrected, but I believe the board (elected by the shareholders) would make a decision for us in 'the company's' best interests, even if that means selling for £1 (?).

This one ain't dead yet, I am thinking of putting in a bit more, sort of all or nothing on this one now, but I can put a bit in (only what I can afford to lose) just in case, because this is cheap as chips pretty much now.

 

[GrahamDiamond]

I have Purchased some more shares lately , I believe this will in the end be a Profitable Investment. 

[silvernewbie]

I am a holder since 2008 North Dakota days, bought 80% at 3/4p price so not burnt but still down 2/3k.  One i have mentally written off, but agree so much potential and a full order book for years when they have not even started digging, means its inevitable there will be a takeover by a big player.  

[Miganto]

Any tips on a low-overhead way of investing here?  Can't buy directly from them and am not looking to put thousands in, so most brokers base-charge seems too high.

[5huggy]

1 hour ago, Miganto said:

Any tips on a low-overhead way of investing here?  Can't buy directly from them and am not looking to put thousands in, so most brokers base-charge seems too high.

what broker do you use to buy shares  ??

 

[silvernewbie]

Xo only charges £5.  Plus freetrade is..free!

[vand]

Wow..

It's a good job silver has gone up recently because holders of this dog will need that to offset this disaster.

This dog has wiped out anything up to 85% of your capital in the last year along... are you really still "happy to hold" or are you now just deluding yourselves?

I have warned before that mining is a incredibly precarious business, and even the best analysts have their job picking out the wheat from the chaff. To think you can somehow do better armed with an internet connection and some already public information is completely delusional.

Remember one of the principles of good investing is to keep your losses small. A 20% loss is recoverable with a 25% upside. By contrast an 85% loss requires chasing a 6-bagger just to get back to your starting point. You know how difficult that is? People even on this forum are skeptical when I say PMs should do 500-600% over the course of a long bull market, but that is what holders of this stock from a year ago are effectively praying for.

[5huggy]

9 minutes ago, vand said:

This dog has wiped out anything up to 85% of your capital in the last year along... are you really still "happy to hold" or are you now just deluding yourselves?

Sorry @vand not quite true! 😉

You are clearly relating to a year ago's price!  - - - - im in the money at 3.08p  thankyou

BERT WERT DUZ AYE NO! 🤪

[vand]

6 minutes ago, 5huggy said:

Sorry @vand not quite true! 😉

You are clearly relating to a year ago's price!  - - - - im in the money at 3.08p  thankyou

BERT WERT DUZ AYE NO! 🤪

You've obviously got a  much better deal than those who bought a year ago, but I would hazard a guess that those buying at 20p, 15p, 10p, 5p... were all getting a better deal than the last person and thought they had nailed the bottom. 

Doesn't matter if you get in a 100th of the price of the the last buyer... there is no bottom on a badly run company. They can and often do go all the way to zero. 

[5huggy]

2 minutes ago, vand said:

They can and often do go all the way to zero. 

UNLIKE GOLD eh! 😉👍