Bratnia

And what's the difference between calling India and calling yorkshire these days??

In the late 19th century physiologist John Scott Haldane proposed miners begin to take canaries into coal mines. The idea was that the bird would act as an early detection and warning system for the presence of poisonous gases, namely carbon monoxide. The idea was widely embraced and wasn’t phased out until 1986, when UK government legislation meant ‘electronic noses’, be used instead. Whilst the birds may no longer be employed, the phrase certainly is. We now employ ‘canary in the coal mine’ as an idiom if you will for something that warns us of a potential danger. 
 
This week we look at seven proverbial canaries in the coal mine, or rather seven charts and headlines that we feel should act as warning signs that all is not well in the global economy. From US spending, to unofficial US consumer debt, to amnesia riddled central bankers, Jan Skoyles takes us quickly through the canaries that caught her eye this week. If you saw anything of particular interest, please let us know! 
 
The week might have been an especially exciting one for the gold and silver prices. But, as we explain in this short video, gold and silver market activity is often years in the making. It’s headlines and charts such as these that are laying the ground for future gold and silver performances. 

sssttttuuuccckkk replying to bobski's post
Or maybe just

 

TL:DR - The global economy and major currencies are in a level of turmoil not seen since the 1930s (Great Depression). Rising geopolitical tensions and various canaries are the inevitable consequence of intractable economic problems. The media and general population are more acutely aware of these factors than at any time in the recent past. Both macro and technical analysis leads to an inevitable conclusion of a commodity super-cycle and boom of precious metals. All of this has come into focus in the past couple of weeks combined with the canaries chirping and a greater expectation of (premature) Fed rate cuts alongside increasing political pressure both in the UK and US to make those cuts.
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If gold breaks £1956 today at 4pm UK time then falls off a cliff and drops £55-70 before weekly close, we should all be very suspicious!
There are numerous reasons why gold is going up from macro to technical, we're still well short of the nominal ATH never mind inflation-adjusted ATH (>$5000)
If you're asking why specifically this week and today, well, many reasons. Let's start with a simple one - the general pattern is to buy on Thurs-Fri to protect yourself over the weekend when markets are closed. Check the gold charts from April 11th-19th. Nobody wants to be in the situation where they need gold but can't buy it. Selling often resumes on Monday as traders transition to more risky assets to seek returns during the week before fleeing to safety again at the weekend
No single factor like war or regulatory changes in China but a trifecta of recession fears, global macros and central bank actions:
1) Just about every major company is laying off staff, slashing prices, divesting commercial real estate, including crucially the Magnificent 7 (Tesla, etc) and other mega-cap firms like McDonald's, Walmart, Tesco, etc. All reporting a slowdown in sales. We have Buffett recently selling billions of Apple shares, the richest men in the world and the CEOs of major firms cashing out stock like they're expecting an apocalypse. There are a number of indicators that the market has peaked and now is the best time to sell risk-on assets. You have to do something with your money and your choices are between Treasuries (US) and Gilts (UK), Yen, Swiss Francs and precious metals. IDK why people still consider Yen a safe haven when her destruction is being orchestrated. Historically gold (and silver) outperform all of the aforementioned. If we were to retake the 2024 ATH in gold that would yield better returns in a short period of time (this week perhaps) than the annual return on government securities
2) Various global macro factors - global recession, anaemic growth even in EMDE (Emerging Markets, Developing Economies), banking fears, bankruptcies and delinquencies amongst both commercial and retail customers. A decline in hiring/increase in lay-offs along with divestment of commercial real estate will crank up the pressure on the banks exposed to these sectors - mostly low and mid-cap banks in the US and Europe. A few banking wobbles is always positive for risk-off assets with precious metals being the premiere choice, gold being the benchmark
3) Fed rate cuts/US election/civil war in the USA. The expectation for rate cuts has shifted from November to September. That may not sound like much but it's not so long ago that November (68%) was seen as optimistic if you were yearning for cuts, now the CME figures are September (68%) and November (80%) for odds of easing. Some people worry about Trump but this is mostly media hype and lefty jealousy/vengeance. The figures even from CNN watchers show the American public have more faith in Trump when it comes to the economy than Biden. The Biden - Obama - Clinton Administration is the worst thing that's happened to the planet in decades. 
CME FedWatch Tool - CME Group
Here are some charts that give context to the global slowdown, recession and war (or black swan/major geopolitical event) fears:
1) Consumers are tapped out. This is an horrific graph for the consumer and corporations that rely on robust consumer spending like the Magnificent 7. The canaries are going bananas about these two graphs, toxic fumes accumulating:
 

 
 

 
2) Concentration of largest stock vs 75th Percentile compared with the Great Depression (major canary):

 
3) Banking fears across the globe including the US and China:

 
If we remove the BTFP (Bank Term Funding Program) then small banks have insufficient reserves to meet regulatory requirements/stress tests:
 

 
Commercial debt is fast approaching shitshow status posting the worst figures since 9/11:
 

 
4) Anaemic global growth, worst for 30 years:
 

 

 
5) The largest market in the world (Chinese real estate ~ $50 trillion vs USA's ~ $30 trillion) is in freefall. A 2008 event is happening in slow-motion in China and has been unfolding for several years now (Evergrande, etc):
 

 
6) Prolonged and significant yield curve inversions - The yield curve has been inverted for +500 days. This has only happened 3 times since 1920; • 1929 • 1974 • 2009. Each time markets declined MORE than 50%. Massive canary:
 

 
7) Black Swans/major geopolitical events are often predicted by the charts above and reflected by the chart below. We're currently running well above 100. Basically when the economy is toast and all other options have been explored, the final solution (excuse the pun) is war. The Great Depression of the 1930s, which some indicators today are mirroring, was "solved" by WWII, it did not resolve itself via regular economic forces:
 

 
CONCLUSION:
The why this week and why today is essentially the sheer volume of different canaries all chirping at the same time combined with the media recognition of such. It's getting harder and harder to hide the fact the global economic system is in turmoil. The primary cause of all of the problems is the borderline insane fiscal and monetary policies being pursued by the USA, Europe, China and Japan. They have destroyed the major currencies by emptying the tank to delay the inevitable major recession and market corrections for shot-term political gains.
The last of their stimulus lost its effectiveness when inflation in the west started to go crazy. There are no more tools in the box to stop the collapse of major currencies except for keeping rates high and allowing a controlled recession to re-balance the unjustified growth and liquidity we experienced since 2008 but more acutely, since covid.
Nobody wants to be left holding the bag if and when the major currencies tumble (like the Yen in Japan) and when the stock market bubble pops. The concept of de-dollarization is global and it refers to the collapse of ALL sovereign currencies with the USA being the LAST domino to fall. We've witnessed this by gold taking ATHs in other major and minor currencies before the ATH is mirrored by the USD. When the music stops the only seats you want to be sitting on are defensive stocks (farming, healthcare, consumer staples, utilities, weapons) and PRECIOUS METALS/commodities.
We have entered a commodity super-cycle that is set to last for a decade or more. This is just the beginning of the ascension of hard currency which will mirror the collapse of fiat and digital currencies which have arbitrary and manipulated valuations. Gold and silver sniff out the BS and provide a stable metric of spending power and wealth. It doesn't matter what a nice suit and pair of shoes costs in USD or BTC terms, we know a smart business outfit + accessories for a man costs an ounce of gold, just as it has done for centuries and millennia, since the time of the Romans
The recent price action in metals is merely a reflection of the chickens (canaries) coming home to roost and people/markets opening their eyes to these realities
 

sssttttuuuccckkk replying to bobski's post
Or maybe just

 

Nope, normal behaviour for him. Love story between him and Hitler incoming...

Severe weather warning for weekend thunderstorms issued for Northern Ireland
 

There will be suppression but silver is also motoring this normally is a good sign for the metals in general. Given that many central banks are now between a rock and hard place now as economic growth isnt really on the cards part from emerging economies and countries.
The west has shafted itself.. through Keynesian and cheap monetary policies an MMT ideology..

Reminds me of Gareth Gates when he went in to the shop for a Mars Bar but come out with a packet of M&Ms

Out-laws are much more fun.

When the primary options are a calamitous Con party, or a Lab party where the majority of its supporters are on benefits looking to define where the public purse should be loaded from and where spent, the comedy channel a.k.a. Parliament channel becomes more of a uncomfortable comedy show.

The latest from closet Remainer Sunak (whose pretty much already gifted the EU Northern Ireland) is that the UK will sign up to WHO being able to decide how/when the UK should lock down or not. I believe Farage is going to start one of those petitions whereby if 100K signatures are lodged the matter has to be debated in Parliament.

The latest from closet Remainer Sunak (whose pretty much already gifted the EU Northern Ireland) is that the UK will sign up to WHO being able to decide how/when the UK should lock down or not. I believe Farage is going to start one of those petitions whereby if 100K signatures are lodged the matter has to be debated in Parliament.

72% agree with you, however there's still another 48% who don't

I have a similar ailment to Jonathan Ross, except where he struggles with R's I struggle with B's

No longer considered as excess deaths, but planned deaths, indicative figures pre-calculated by the action of exporting Covid discharged patients from the NHS into care homes ... 100K+, rounded down to precisely 100K (subtracted from the excess deaths figure). As I recall people were even standing on their door steps cheering the NHS. A later questioning of how the care home workers were being ignored and were struggling with no PPE etc. (some even moved full time into the care home themselves) did however result in pin badges being offered as a reward for their suffering.

When the primary options are a calamitous Con party, or a Lab party where the majority of its supporters are on benefits looking to define where the public purse should be loaded from and where spent, the comedy channel a.k.a. Parliament channel becomes more of a uncomfortable comedy show.

Out-laws are much more fun.

Petitions are a pointless waste of time. Even if it reaches 100k+ signatures, it will be debated by three people in Parliament at an awkward time of day for about 15 minutes, then they will do as they please, as they always do.

I think this time the masses will ignore any lockdown nonsense... it was heading that way last time.
I myself quite enjoyed lockdown, I didn't want to see people anyway. 😁

When the primary options are a calamitous Con party, or a Lab party where the majority of its supporters are on benefits looking to define where the public purse should be loaded from and where spent, the comedy channel a.k.a. Parliament channel becomes more of a uncomfortable comedy show.

When the primary options are a calamitous Con party, or a Lab party where the majority of its supporters are on benefits looking to define where the public purse should be loaded from and where spent, the comedy channel a.k.a. Parliament channel becomes more of a uncomfortable comedy show.

The latest from closet Remainer Sunak (whose pretty much already gifted the EU Northern Ireland) is that the UK will sign up to WHO being able to decide how/when the UK should lock down or not. I believe Farage is going to start one of those petitions whereby if 100K signatures are lodged the matter has to be debated in Parliament.

When the primary options are a calamitous Con party, or a Lab party where the majority of its supporters are on benefits looking to define where the public purse should be loaded from and where spent, the comedy channel a.k.a. Parliament channel becomes more of a uncomfortable comedy show.

When the primary options are a calamitous Con party, or a Lab party where the majority of its supporters are on benefits looking to define where the public purse should be loaded from and where spent, the comedy channel a.k.a. Parliament channel becomes more of a uncomfortable comedy show.