HerculeHolmes

Fair value of a company is a judgement on many factors, assets and share price sure, but in this case that judgement heavily depends on where you think the oil price is going in the future. You know my opinion on inflation and what I think will happen to the oil price. For the companies I looked backwards based on last years financial reports on $64 oil, comparing annual reports and comparing metrics in order to rank them, Exxon came out top Shell second, Shell had the highest revenue of all the majors in 2019, largest company by assets, best return on capital employed, best return on assets, decent quick debt ratio, highest income before tax, but it has more debt than Exxon, less per share income, almost 4 times as much long term debt, etc. I am not too concerned about long term debt due to inflation expectations. BP is the worst of them based on last years performance, has the worst balance sheet regarding debt, etc, but has half the short term debt that Exxon had. I am not concerned about its debt, especially after the FED told us inflation is coming. That is looking backwards, looking forwards take that $64 oil and double it in 3 years, triple it in 5 years, etc. Q3 will be interesting to see how they are getting on, I expect they did quite well all things considered, as oil has averaged around $40 for most of the quarter. A lot has happened this quarter in regards to the noise around renewable electricity and hydrogen. Shell buying oil developments in Africa, these will not be producing oil for 5-7 years, this tells me they know they will still be an oil producer beyond that time frame despite all the noise. Shell and Microsoft partnering up. It won't be long until the market starts to see value, whether it is fair or not is a judgement call. 
Everyone thinks oil is dead. I have read several articles around this theme recently far in excess of the calls from 2015, even the oil companies themselves are at it (BP). Instead people have been investing in Tesla and equivalent thinking everyone is going to need electric vehicles and no oil. Sure people will need them, but they are not going to be lining up around the world to spend $60k on an electric car next year, maybe in 10 years when there might be a significant amount of electric vehicles on the road, but until then what are people going to need? Have we found a replacement for plastics? How high does the price of natural gas need to be for hydrogen to be viable? Who is positioning themselves now to provide that hydrogen and given the prices of conventional energy to support said hydrogen, what do they know? 
The market is still looking backwards thinking more of the same is coming in regards to the monetary conditions (wrong), then it is looking forwards 10 years in to the future and seeing it happening next year (wrong). We will see in time. At the moment I am not seeing many people calling to invest in oil, though I have had a couple of tentative emails from various subscriptions calling attention to a few of the companies. Won't be long.  

I would suspect they havnt claimed the money, instead just ignoring the whole thing as they ignore me, however this means they have my money and could potentially claim from UPS too if they havnt already. 
UPS have even sent messages to the Perth Mint for me too explaining why they cant talk to me and stating a claim was issued to goldsilver.be on the 27th of August.
The Perth Mint are investigating, ive had messages from the whole sale manager and minted products manager who have reached out for more information a couple of times.
 

Ive genuinely considered this and it turns out cheaper for me to fly to them than the shipping cost I paid on my order haha.
Just waiting to see what the Perth Mint say, see if that brings me any joy, if not my next port of call is to report them to all the mints.
Still pressuring UPS to provide the information that would let my bank pursue the money too.

It is so difficult because while actually the fault was not goldsilver.be, the way they have handled it all is just insane, the fact they are still actually ignoring me and only bothered to reply because I complained to the Perth Mint is just so frustrating, more over they only replied to call me a crook and fraudster yet UPS have issued a claim and accepted the package is lost.
They do not lose a single penny but would rather ignore me, my guess is they have claimed the money and keeping that too, I base that on the very limited information I have from UPS. 

@Robjw all I can do offer you free drink pal as my condolences I see on one of your post your in Manchester . I have stopped using GS.be over a year in the past ordered metals worth over 15K with them without any issues or problems (pre Covid). I have changed my strategy on stacking Gold only and moved away from Silver and only trust European Mint, ATS Bullion, Chards, Atkinson, Baird and co, Sharps Pixley, Royal Mint and Hatton Garden metals. Not on my trusted list I don't order metals from that dealer (as you can see majority in the UK).
You can contact action fraud police in the UK https://www.actionfraud.police.uk/ and log a claim with as much detail as possible. They will investigate and if they have jurisdiction they will enforce the law.

I can appreciate that GoldSilver.be are little more than a one-man-band company and reimbursing a customer on such a big order would cripple them, but their attitude STINKS. If the carrier has lost the shipment what harm can it do them? Why aren't they making any attempt to help? i think their name is mud now, at least for anyone who uses this website.

Okay, that pisses me off. I guess it's better than no protection at all, but putting - what, £2,000 retail - of platinum coins into a box and not sealing the bags and not padding the box.. That's a horrible lack of attention. They're just not competent to handle coins. I mean really, this is what they do for a LIVING. How can they not know how to properly package valuable coins? What the bloody hell are they doing?
I was annoyed at the little mark on my 10 ounce silver coin, which devalued it probably £30 - £40. Thank fudge I didn't buy a gold or platinum coin from them. Stuff that, I am not using Goldsilver.be again.
 

I can appreciate that GoldSilver.be are little more than a one-man-band company and reimbursing a customer on such a big order would cripple them, but their attitude STINKS. If the carrier has lost the shipment what harm can it do them? Why aren't they making any attempt to help? i think their name is mud now, at least for anyone who uses this website.

I can appreciate that GoldSilver.be are little more than a one-man-band company and reimbursing a customer on such a big order would cripple them, but their attitude STINKS. If the carrier has lost the shipment what harm can it do them? Why aren't they making any attempt to help? i think their name is mud now, at least for anyone who uses this website.

Absolutely, I bet overseas bullion dealers get hit with people trying their luck all the time but there are definitely ways to conduct yourself.
I could honestly look past all the exchanges if they just did what any normal business should do and ask the courier what has happened.
They confirmed themselves that the parcel was delayed after checking with UPS, telling me it was simply delayed and would be delivered in the next couple of days, 40 minutes later it had been delivered 3 days prior with no signature.
From that second on they didn't care, it was delivered and I was scamming them.
Edit: 
Just as an added point to this, I've had delivery issues with the European Mint too and when I contacted them they chased up and reassured me everything would be fine, turns out it was in my greenhouse so all was fine and is why I defend the European Mint when I see things on the forum.
They were totally professional, they reassured me it would get resolved and helped me in anyway they could.
I've even had problems with coins they sent and all issues are dealt with.
Couldn't recommend them enough.

I just don't get how they can refuse to engage with you!
UPS have said there was an issue with delivery for gods sake!
I wish you all the best in resolving this - have you raised a claim with your bank yet?

So claim was issued on the 27th of August as far as UPS can tell me, I have emailed and left messages on my order but goldsilver.be are totally ignoring me now. They have not replied to any email since the 4th of August.
UPS are not allowed to discuss or make the claim out to myself.
Yet again another display of being just scummy human beings, they now double the money for the product.
 
Edit update: I decided to email Perth Mint and make a distributors complaint against goldsilver.be, CCing in both goldsilver.be and the UPS manager I have been dealing with in attempt to get my money back. Will update if I get any reply from the Perth Mint.

I'd pass those messages onto Perth Mint, other mints you ordered products of, UPS, and start legal proceedings. Nothing will come of this until a lawyer's letter arrives.  
Given them slack in the past, its incredible how they are hostile to customer problems.

Yes I am running a 12 year old ford focus diesel I bought with cash before my daughter was born, it has cost me about £30 a month in initial cost, parts and repairs averaged out over the time I have had it. Nearly time for a new one, I am waiting for furlough and credit freezes to end and people to start handing back the PCP/on finance car keys on mass, there should be a lot of used cars flooding the market then and pushing down prices. That will be a good time to buy if it happens, but it largely depends on government. Likely the socialists in power called the conservative party will step in and prop people up.
There is also potential for another scrapage scheme as well maybe, as you say the car industry is really a financial one, they need to keep new cars selling as most of the value of a new car is in the debt they lend out. I think inflation over the coming years will kill most of the profits in that business model and likely the idea of renting a car too. Its only possible now because debt is so cheap for everyone.

Very nice price on those, obviously I wish I had waited for that £10.25 dip but saw £10.40 this morning and couldn't believe it half of the £9 shell fund went in, probably too early as usual. I am watching BP as well, I said to myself wait for £2.50 and didn't get it, perhaps there will be opportunity yet.  
XOM sub $40 with this dollar to £ and that dividend at these oil prices, something doesn't add up and I am assuming sentiment but who the hell knows maybe I am wrong again. 
Just remember being to early is the same as being wrong if you can't hold on, and it could be a rough few months for stocks if things turn against the market, tech stocks blow up and take the lot with them. Be prepared for the worst and get paid to endure the volatility, that is what the dividends are for. 

As KDave said, you would hope the competently run big companies would be using the next year or two to streamline themselves, buy up cheap assets from other companies going bankrupt and when the economy is better come out on the other side looking good with rising oil prices
I think there will be a crash from looking at different economic data (thread below) but who knows
 
 

Yes it might be early which would be the same as being wrong but I don't think its too early to be buying personally, I am content to take the hit in the short term and just keep buying all the way through. Sure the market might crash next month, if you think so then sell everything and buy back next month. The trouble is the crash in October might not happen, and if it does happen it might not happen in October. It might be in one sector of the market (tech) and not take down value stocks that are already hammered, or it might take the whole lot with it. Who knows! I think it likely we will see a crash but I don't know when and I don't know from which level, so I am buying now bits a time. 
I am concerned that you say a serious investment should be all eggs in one basket, this is in my opinion not a good idea unless you are extremely confident on something or are insider trading, otherwise it will likely end in tears. Better to be diversified into many areas you like and some you don't, and then if you are wrong in one place your loss might be covered by where you are right. There is a saying that if you are not losing money somewhere then you are not properly diversified and if you are losing money everywhere the same applies and shouldn't come as a surprise.
Peter lynch is backwards looking at supply just like everyone else, trust me they ain't pumping 12 million barrels a day now, you don't have to take my word for it. A year ago rig count was 900+ now its 254. The oil crash has killed production and the lack of new activity with these oil prices will kill it further. Sentiment in oil has killed off investment and will continue to kill it off further. The longer sentiment and the oil price stays low, the better it is for the companies that are left, the ones that will survive this environment and take the majority of the market. The lack of sentiment and investment will kill off new entrants allowing the ones already in to consolidate. The cure to low prices, is low prices.  

Wed 26/08/2020 09:55
Hello,
 
Thank you for your reply.
 
Unfortunately we are unable to disclose any details regarding the progress of the investigation, as per our agreement with the sender. In this case I would highly recommend you contacting the sender, as you are their direct customer and they should be able to provide you with more details regarding this.
 
My apologies for the inconvenience.
 
Kind Regards,
 
Ligita Baroniunaite
UPS Delivery Information Department UK & IE
 
 
Sent multiple emails over to goldsilver.be nothing back at all and then the tracking updated today with:

I chatted with him personally and realised that he is a very safe investor mainly with bonds - not the best tactic atm.
Like Maneco, he is another guy making the most of his fame and income from this situation as I guess he had no job in March. 

With regards to 212 he has not used the app, he only said that as it makes money from CFD's. Just choose the ISA option. 
Its a click bait video with very little research. 

Just dont touch the tech stocks LOL. 
Might start looking into this as its my background (farming). 

Im gonna start a fish farm in my house if it gets that bad. 
Of become veggie.

I would say Ramin at Pensioncraft is being a bit of an arse.  There's nothing gambling about using a particular app for investment and trading.  Trading 212 is just a tool, strategy of how we chose to invest is upto us, and you can buy index funds on Trading 212 too. 
 
Sadly last comment permitted on this subject as another sub-forum goes off limits to non-paying members of community.  Enjoy your investment. 

Tracking updated today to show its now being investigated, so at the most another 7 working days to get an update.

GOLDSILVER.BE PRECIOUS METALS <INFO@GOLDSILVER.BE> Tue 28/07/2020 11:32 Dear customer,

Thank you for contacting GOLDSILVER.BE     The tracking information can be weird from time to time.   We've contacted UPS and asked to start an investigation; I'll get back to you when we receive information.   Best regards,
Christine
Customer service     GOLDSILVER.BE PRECIOUS METALS <INFO@GOLDSILVER.BE> Thu 30/07/2020 07:53   Dear customer,

As said before, you'll be contacted as soon as we receive information.   The parcel shows as being delivered and signed for by you on Friday 23. UPS will check the drivers GPS records to confirm this, I presume.     Best regards,
Christine
Customer service   GOLDSILVER.BE PRECIOUS METALS <INFO@GOLDSILVER.BE> Thu 30/07/2020 09:43 Hi,   All your details about the delay , the tracking information and so on are useless litterature. We don't care. You endless emails are not helpfull at all. The parcel shows as being delivered to you. That's a fact. And we are convinced you received your parcel on Friday 23rd.   UPS is the best delivery company. There's an investigation. We've also asked why the site showed erroneous tracking information if the parcel was received. You'll be contacted once we get the result.
Regards,
Paul   GOLDSILVER.BE PRECIOUS METALS <INFO@GOLDSILVER.BE> Tue 04/08/2020 11:10 STOP IT  now !
How many times do we have to say UPS is doing its job ?
To be very clear :  we really doubt you did not receive the parcel.  We are even convinced you have it but try to cheat us because you noticed some wrong information shown on the UPS site.
You're not the first to try this.
Liam
    GOLDSILVER.BE PRECIOUS METALS <INFO@GOLDSILVER.BE> Tue 04/08/2020 11:39 The parcel was delivered on 07/24 and signed for. All other information is of no value.
We already got other information which need to be confirmed.
 UPS will resume the investigation.
 
 
 
UPS have now allowed me to make a claim due to seeing the emails that state the sender has raised it multiple times, however even with me raising the claim it would still only be discussed and paid to the sender.
 
 
Dear Rob,

Sending this email as agreed during our conversation over the phone.


At the outset, please allow me to personally apologize for the problems that you experienced with this shipment and for any unnecessary stress and inconvenience caused.

We are going to try to locate the package through the process of investigation. Please forward to me the invoices with the detailed description of the missing items so that I can forward it Customer Resolution Group (CRG) for them to raise the investigation.

Please be advised that:

  *   ?Without these details the investigation will not be started. The clearer description of the goods the FASTER it is to find the missing items.
  *   If request for an investigation is made 60 days after Pick up the investigation will not be claim eligible.
  *   Once all the details are received I will no longer be working with the investigation. Once there are any updates regarding the missing items the Investigation department will get in touch to the shipper on record.
  *   The investigation can take up to 8 business days. Please do note that counting of 8 business days will not start on the day I received the copy of the investigation template but it will start on the date that it was raised by CRG.

Due to data protection laws and the contract agreed by the shipper, the results of any claim with UPS will only be communicated to the shipper of record. A consignee or third party will not receive any results or details on the claim itself, unless the shipper contacts UPS and gives their permission for the claim outcome to be shared.

For your convenience, you may fill in the attached investigation template and send it back to me once done.

Regards and stay safe,

Keanno Herrera
GBS UK SME
UPS Manila
 
 
As of right now with the information given to me there is no investigation started and the sender has not raised any claim or investigation on their system. All I can do is keep a email record of all I can and pass it through to my bank, I have raised it with them as a scam and they are waiting for the UPS outcome to see if they can do anything but they are just being nice, I think it will be rejected.

Ah. Good point. I'm an idiot. That is worrying. My gut feeling is that the parcel will arrive somehow, but clearly GS.be are doing sweet F-A.