£ to $

[HawkHybrid]

I think he/she actually means rationing due to local

shortage.(baltic dry index is indicating less shipments)

 

HH

[Pipers]

£ down again against nearly everything today another stealth devalue maybe to give the FTSE a boost. 16/02/16 19:40 GMT

http://uk.investing.com/quotes/single-currency-crosses

[Pipers]

Well the £ down again the last couple of days. I have now taken all my profits out of the USD and most of my stake only leaving a moderate amount. I can see the £ going lower but I am not going to risk my gains on it. May I suggest 1.35-1 

[goldbones]

6 hours ago, Pipers said:

Well the £ down again the last couple of days. I have now taken all my profits out of the USD and most of my stake only leaving a moderate amount. I can see the £ going lower but I am not going to risk my gains on it. May I suggest 1.35-1 

I am considering a position in this at some point to protect and hedge golds gain in £s https://www.google.co.uk/finance?q=LON%3ALGB3&ei=GUrNVoHMOoWXUMLig6gN

LGB3

3x leverage short dollar long GBP so if the £ reverses then this ETF will make you 3x the gain.

With this if you have £1000 in it and the pound goes from 1.35 back to 1.65 that would be a 22% move which should translate to a 60-70% move up on the £1000 for a £6-700 gain which you could take profit on and buy gold at the lower £ price

If you look at the 5 year chart you can see the huge rally when the £ soared vs the dollar between  august 2013 - august 2014 had you owned this through that one year rally you'd have almost doubled your stake and could have bought gold cheap with the proceeds.

So looks like a useful tool...but when do we hit the bottom? you don't want to be catching falling knives but at some point this will come in handy its one to remember and come back to but currently the trend is firmly bearish on the pound.

[Pipers]

HSBC have came out with a statement today 24/2/2016 sterling may drop 20% if the vote is out in brexit.

I take the Commerzbank view of a drop to usd 135-1£ maybe a bit lower

@goldbones  IMO If  the UK vote in, then the pound will rally after the in vote back up to 1.50-1, on the other hand if there is a sniff of a OUT vote then the markets will panic sterling will fall and most of the fall will be baked in the pie.   

I'm a bit of a cynic, I have been thinking about the angle the IN campaign are now running and its a YOU WILL BE WORSE OFF whether this is true or not is not the point the IN campaign have moved their tanks onto that ground, most people in this country are greedy and can see the effect of sterling being devalued.  People say they will vote out, but like the secret Conservative voters at the last election when they get into the ballot box people vote in self financial interest.

  

[goldbones]

1 minute ago, Pipers said:

HSBC have came out with a statement today 24/2/2016 sterling may drop 20% if the vote is out in brexit.

I take the Commerzbank view of a drop to usd 135-1£ maybe a bit lower

@goldbones  IMO If  the UK vote in, then the pound will rally after the in vote back up to 1.50-1, on the other hand if there is a sniff of a OUT vote then the markets will panic sterling will fall and most of the fall will be baked in the pie.   

I'm a bit of a cynic, I have been thinking about the angle the IN campaign are now running and its a YOU WILL BE WORSE OFF whether this is true or not is not the point the IN campaign have moved their tanks onto that ground, most people in this country are greedy and can see the effect of sterling being devalued.  People say they will vote out, but like the secret Conservative voters at the last election when they get into the ballot box people vote in self financial interest.

  

I'm even more cynical in that i don't believe the brexit has much to do with what you're seeing, i think its a nice cover story and one they can pull out and point the finger to so they can shift the blame.

If you look closely ALL currencies are tanking or have been tanking except the yen and swiss franc for some time now , Gold has done well in every currency across the board for the first time since 2011.

There is something much bigger at play here.. MUCH bigger, what it is exactly i can't say (recession factors/banking failures?) , what i can say is that by the time we know about it you'll not be in a position to take the biggest advantage of it, you have to be positioned ahead of it not behind it.

[Pipers]

@goldbones

 

Well  (BOE) Carney has stated the BOE are not looking at negative interest rates, with Carney's history on calls that mean they are, the opposite happens what he says.  

You are right there is something big happening, its a nonsense just blaming China every time I put the tv on its 'because of China' the tv pundits never looking underneath the whys wheres of the issue. I have not heard one stating the obvious, China manufactures items, exports them around the world, the demand falls then China does not need to manufacture as many goods for export. China orders for Commodities drop, shipping drops we can see the effects by both the Baltic dry and the Harpex. 

No one on the TV has asked why has demand for goods in the western world dropped while GPD has risen, People on sites like this know but the herd just believe the nonsense and drivel that is on the BBC news etc.  I was watching the BBC the other day when it stated the house prices have gone up by 7% to most people they would pat each other on the back thinking they have done well, not for one minute thinking they could  liquidate part of the house at a reasonable cost  because they could not.  Now to my point the GOVERNMENT have used housing to hide how bad our economy is, purposely not building enough housing to pump up the price of housing stock. Then we have Banks who are over exposed to housing in the UK, though the Banks have slightly reduced their exposure with the help of the BBC (Housing programs for pensioners) and buy to let.  

All of this hides the drop in demand for goods because most people are worse off (lower wages) having to pay higher housing costs leaving less money to spend on goods.  

  This is why people are against immigration because they see wages suppressed and housing costs higher,  not seeing the bigger picture and the reasons behind the problems. 

I 

[goldbones]

Well i pulled up the exchange rate from 1791 to today and the lowest recorded exchange was $1.30-£1 in 1985, if it breaks below that then history will be made because it has never been lower than that 

see here

https://www.measuringworth.com/exchangepound/

[Pipers]

@goldbones Yeah your right , 

 

[whitesands1]

6 hours ago, Pipers said:

 

All of this hides the drop in demand for goods because most people are worse off (lower wages) having to pay higher housing costs leaving less money to spend on goods.    

Well put.  Also we are full up on Chinese Junk.  I think they have done a great job in lowering consumer prices in the west, some tremendous bargains, but we don't have room for any more.

[Bumble]

That $1.30 figure must have been a yearly average. The exchange rate fell to below $1.05 in February 1985.

[goldbones]

1 hour ago, Bumble said:

That $1.30 figure must have been a yearly average. The exchange rate fell to below $1.05 in February 1985.

What was going on back then exactly to do that? there was no EU back then.

I see one factor being similar, the 1980's oil glut:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1980s_oil_glut

Although the actual fall from $30 a barrel to $10 happened between November 1985 - july 1986 obviously this was preceded also by a strong dollar. 

[BaldyBob]

5 minutes ago, goldbones said:

What was going on back then exactly to do that? there was no EU back then.

Bang in the middle of the miners strike? 1985 was a pretty grim year all round.

[Pipers]

The Government were in a right mess and issued Bonds Gilts at a fantastic price, yield. I think thats what saw them through if i remember correctly.   

[SoulUK]

the £ has made back a bit this morning, here's hoping it can continue this afternoon

can all but hope.

[shemyaza]

26th Jan 2015 £1 bought 104.12 Rubles at present £1 buys 105.22 Rubles. On August 24th 2015 the Yen had one of its strongest intra-day rises against the Dollar in years, $ to Yen fall, since then the £ has declined against many currencies.

Edit: Potential Scenario- If Oil Triple Locks expire causing the Hedging cushion in the US to be removed, failures and mergers will occur in Low to Mid-cap oil, millions of barrels of oil per day fall off supply, rising oil raises Brent and the £ and Oil currencies rise seeing a fall in the dollar allowing the Fed to raise interest rates and potentially the unanticipated first megabank failure (1 of 6 Megabanks) to ensue in Japan as the $:Yen falls below 100.

(Note: Currency falling = Rising Competitiveness, Currency Rising = Falling Competitiveness)

 

[vand]

I agree that it's unfortunate that GBP has been so weak lately. One theory is that GBP was driven up around 2013-2014 thanks to all the hot money coming into London high end property, and then that trend has reversed strongly in the last few months.

If you earn your wages in GBP then of course we need to be watching the Gold price in GBP closely, and as correctly noted, gold and commodities tend to move inversely to the USD, so changes in the true price of gold move inversely with its price in GBP anyway.  

The USD has been on a tear since 2015, but there are clear signs of a top in place. The USD DXY index has been trading in a range between 93-101 for 14 months and is right at the bottom of that channel and could fall out of it sooner than anyone expects. 

There are no fundamental reasons why the USD should continue going up, and I think that it has plenty of downside against most currencies. The recent $1.38 may well prove to be a bottom. One of the primary reasons we stack precious metals is to preserve our wealth in the event of currency devaluation, after all. If you view gold price in countries such as Argentina or Brazil, or even Aus or Canada, the value of being in hard assets and out of fiat becomes self-evident. All fiat currencies will go to zero, but they take it in turns to do so, and measured against each other will rise and fall accordingly. In the global currency wars, don't be surprised to see a currency crisis develop in £sterling before $usd. As misplaced as the faith is in the dollar, it is still the reserve currency and therefore likely to be the last bastion to fall simply because believers in the system will defend it to the last.

[Bumble]

The main currencies appear to take turns to weaken themselves through QE and interest rate reductions. FIrst it was the USA and the UK, then Japan, then Europe. It's a big game of pass the parcel. According to Jim Rickards in a recent interview, at the G20 meeting the central bankers agreed that it was time for USA to weaken again and for Europe and Japan to strengthen slightly. This is partly because China has seen the yuan rise against EUR and JPY and wants to devalue: the last time it announced a devaluation in August 2015 it precipitated a sharp fall in the stock markets. In order to avoid this happening again, USD will be allowed to fall and carry CNY down with it.

[Murph]

In some ways the US citizens have more freedom than us.  Just look at how our internet use is being monitored and censored and how common surveillance is over here.  Not to mention the restrictions on anything remotely dangerous.

I just wish Bitcoin was more stable and its use was widespread.

[shemyaza]

When everyone else said £1 = $1 I said the Pound would get stronger to £1 = $2. So far it's heading to $2, it's cyclical but very difficult to see. I would expect to see $1=£0.65000 soon as that travels slowly to 0.50000 (The Dollar to Pound ratio!)

[shemyaza]

My £1 = $2 prediction holds precisely, Brexit = Interest Rate rises (Helps Pension funds with Yield income, similarly for the Banking sector frees up liquidity vacuum due to low rates creating income instability) and naturally raises the £ with higher rates, Remain = those sellers of £'s flood back in and raise the £. My merry-go-round shows the £ is primed for this move. £ strength reduces the G:S ratio with Dollar weakness always benefiting the G:S towards Silver. Feel free to challenge this as all viewpoints will assist others in looking more deeply at the mechanisms.

[Bumble]

I can't see GBP rising on a Brexit vote: quite the opposite. Some commentators are predicting GBP/USD falling to 1.1. Raising interest rates is not an option in a country that has the vast quantities of national, corporate and household debt that the UK has. We are stuck with very low nominal rates and negative real rates for the forseeable future. On a remain vote, GBP/USD could recover to over 1.5, maybe even 1.6, though probably no higher. The only prediction I would venture is that whatever the result of the vote, there will be an immediate overreaction, so taking a contrary position might be profitable.

Is anybody buying options on GBP at the moment? Given that the price is very likely to either rise or fall, some kind of option trade might work.

[Pete]

I am not convinced the $/£ exchange rate has much to do with the EU referendum but is more likely connected to what the Fed will do with interest rates in the future.
There are too many global trades in Forex with computer algorithms attempting to predict small changes & trends for traders and speculators who make big bucks on changes up or down. Volatility is good for this business and stability is like sailing in calm conditions - flat.
The media then - in my opinion - searches for a political event of the day or makes something up that supposedly fits the Forex.
We the masses are fed this nonsense as fact.
The same is true for PMs unfortunately and ask yourself why oil is so cheap compared to its highs - it is manipulated of course.

[Pipers]

The German 10 year Bunds went negative this morning just for a while. IMO The USD has been devaluing for the last 7 months slowly thats why Gold has gone up, as the herd are running to US treasury's and German Bunds (cash) its like free money to the central banks, why would they offer a higher rate to investors if they are willing to accept such low returns, in the end the investors will go to gold etc and the central banks will have to put up interest rates to an acceptable level to entice the investors back.  

I think the £ will go above $1.5 if we remain in the EU, but go below $1.30 if we leave this is short to medium term, In the long term it is up to the Government what level it wants the £ to be at.    

[Pipers]

the following is my opinion and only an opinion and not necessary fact.  

Mark Carney is an Idiot! or he is a sly swindler who has conned the vast majority of the country.  

After brexit the markets set the price of sterling, the BOE led by Carney saw this the exit of the EU as a Green light to devalue the £ even more.  Promoting himself as the Saviour of the UK economy he made 3 statements within a week as to steady the markets (more likely to feed his ego).  Before the Brexit vote he had made statements where he had firmly wagered himself in the in camp (stay in the EU).      

 

 

Having lost his bet (or did he), a lot of investors did lose a lot of money, something had to be done for the markets to keep them happy a rally of the FTSE would be a good idea lets try and get to 7000, f-uck the pension funds and the pensioners now and to be. The bond holders well they can go and f-ck off too. 

By halving interest rates the BOE/Carney have also made it not worth holding money in the bank why lend the bank your money? Certainly it is not worth leaving it in the bank for longer than 3 months but at the same time I would not recommend taking out loans on over prices assets or assets that depreciate. 

Carney has stated interest rates were reduced to help the UK economy, IMO all he is interested in is the City of London and the Housing market, If he was interested in exports he would of directed help to that sector and keep the £ at the same ratio to the $ as commodities have risen sharply. 

BOE/Carney the General Public,  Carney does not give a f-uck about the normal worker, family and the everyday item price at the shop eg bread eggs milk meat vegetables, rent/mortgage(rent really) , fuel, please note I do not use the inflation figures as they are bullshit and do not reflect normal life for the vast majority of families in the UK.

 

When will people realise that in the UK we are now a lot worse off just by devaluing of the £.  

 

Mark Carney should resign his position as he has caused the £ to weaken more than it needed he then came out to with great fan fare with a bond buy back scheme of which the BOE had to over pay for and were 50 million short another failure.  

Please Mr Carney  Resign now.