2020 P American Eagle 1 oz - Am I dumb?

[g33x0r]

Hey guys,

I'm a relatively new stacker, not quite a year now.  I've right around 100 ounces, 38% is generic, 20% junk silver, and 42% coins (usually as low premium as I can go).  I try to get most of my silver for as low premium as I can, with a notable exception of the Black Flag series coins, because I just love those designs, but I was lucky to get them first day so it wasn't as bad as it could've been.  Any ways, I just ordered an MS69 graded version of the 2020 ASE that was minted in Philadelphia (only 240,000 minted there in 2020), making it the second rarest ASE in history (so I've read).  Numismatically is that a dumb investment?  Or will this coin appreciate nicely over time?  Curious what the community's thoughts are on this kind of thing.  

This is the one I ordered: https://www.providentmetals.com/2020-p-american-eagle-1-oz-silver-coin-pcgs-ms69-fs.html

[Happypanda88]

This is still a high volume coin in the same design at 2.5 times the price as a regular ASE.

Personally, I'm not a fan of modern high mintage bullion in a slab. 

In years to come, will collectors pay 3 or 4 times the price as a regular 2020 bullion ASE ? .... debatable! 

[g33x0r]

Yeah I'm not either but as these have no mint marks there's no other way to tell they're from the philli mint batch from 2020.

[Robb]

8 hours ago, g33x0r said:

Numismatically is that a dumb investment? 

Sadly, yes.

Anything common with a MS69 rating is basically junk in the numismatic world and the 2020 ASE is nothing special by a long shot.  Two huge strikes against any real appreciation.  

These go for $50 something dollars on Ebay now in MS69..Back in early May they were at $115-$90 or so....the trend (my friend and yours) is down.

MS70 are as much as 5x higher, which is even more crazy.

 

[g33x0r]

How are these on eBay already when they haven't been released yet?  I think you're confusing run of the mill 2020 ASEs with the batch specifically minted at the Philadelphia mint.

[Arganto]

They have been available for a little while, some were chancing it with several hundred dollar price tags when first released...have a search on the forum, there was a relatively recent thread started by @ChrisSilver I believe

[ChrisSilver]

I personally wouldn’t recommend it as an investment, price per coin seems high to me (This is just my personal opinion though and of course I could be mistaken and it could do well investment wise if there is enough continued demand)

What I do recommend it for however, is if you are purchasing it for the history and for your own collection, if you like it then get one  

My original topic was here: 

 

[g33x0r]

Thanks for the input guys.  I do enjoy the history behind this one.  Price was a factor that is why I didn't spring for the MS70 version.  Oh well, live and learn, we'll see what happens I guess.

[Robb]

2 hours ago, g33x0r said:

Thanks for the input guys.  I do enjoy the history behind this one.  Price was a factor that is why I didn't spring for the MS70 version.  Oh well, live and learn, we'll see what happens I guess.

Think of it as a school tuition...an investment in your education .....that is what I do 😉

If you look back in history (sometimes) it can give you an idea of what to expect.  In 2015 over 79,000 ASEs were minted in Philly.  Lowest mintage ever.  They were selling for (are you ready? )  $500-$600 each on Ebay in MS-69 and $3-$4k if MS-70.    

Yesterday you could have bought a slabbed MS-69 for $167...a considerable drop after the "hype".    

The 2020 ASE P minting started on April 8th, and the ONLY way to identify a P mint ASE is if the monster box it shipped in had a specific number on the shipping strap used to seal the box.  Other than that, there is no way to identify if you even have a "genuine" P minted ASE.  Too  many chances for custodial hanky-panky for me!

The monster boxes can only be purchased by The Cartel, and they are the ones that manufactured a market for these otherwise common bullion coins.  It is getting to the point where slabbed bullion coins are becoming a real joke, with nonsense like who's picture or signature is also on the slab determining value.  How long will this go on? Who knows? I would steer clear of all the current common bullion faux "collectibles" if your goal is numismatic investment.

 

[STONE]

1 hour ago, g33x0r said:

Thanks for the input guys.  I do enjoy the history behind this one.  Price was a factor that is why I didn't spring for the MS70 version.  Oh well, live and learn, we'll see what happens I guess.

You just realized your first lesson in separating what is marketing hype and what has real value. If a story has to be attached to something for it to have value than the story is worth more than the item...

[g33x0r]

Yeah I'll probably keep it, 95% of my stack is low/no premium so I'm okay taking a hit here and there.  It does look like premiums are coming down overall which is nice.  I saw 90% junk silver on sale today over at APMEX for 1.99 over spot, still nowhere near the .29 over spot you could get it for like 6-8 months ago but at least it's trending down.  We'll see what happens in a few years.  I'm in silver for the long term any ways.  

[LiquidMetalsUK]

I am thinking of getting a couple slabbed 2020 silver 1oz coins for the simple fact that as others have said 2020 for better or worse will go down in history as a year of interest and maybe one day down the road when I'm long in the earth these 2020 coins will make a few quid. Either way it will be my kids or there kids problem to make a profit on lol. Yes the premium is a little steep but I've paid alot more for key date coins (pesky libertads 😀) and 2020 will be a key date 👍