Just getting into silver, a bunch of questions, advice needed

[DANIEL999]

Hi. Preparing for the SHTF years to follow here, plus I believe the prices of precious metal of today are going to seem preposterous in ~5 years based on monetary policy. (as I expect most of you do too)

I am in Europe. ANY chance to avoid the f** VAT or not at all? Is europeanmint the best source?

I am considering investing 1000 EUR for starters and maybe 300 a month on average from there on.

The buyback prices are confusing... what's the deal with that? -60% from day one or am I getting something wrong?

Once I want to sell, likely, I will need to travel to a different country due to the small & deal driven local market. Austria seems the best choice for me. I am considering to exclusively buy Philharmonics as they are also legal tender there (this should minimize any possible risk of declaring, confiscation etc). Any input on that? Is there any reason to consider other type of bullion?

My long term strategy seems to be to begin selling off once the gold/silver ration drops under 40. In a hyperinflation should be going to perhaps 20, ultimately, anyone else in the same boat? 'Selling off' = convert to gold, and ride that wave from there on.

I would appreciate any feedback. Thank you!

 

[Thelonerangershorse]

If your're investing that kind of money, I'd consider gold in the first place, that much silver takes up a lot of space and gets very heavy really quick.

[sixgun]

Europeanmint.com is VAT free for the EU.
Goldsilver.be is a good price and has a wide selection of coins.
Gold.de is a price comparison site for German dealers - again you can get good silver prices.

1000€ is a decent amount to get the shipping cost down - personally i wouldn't consider it a lot of silver.
300€ is a reasonable amount per month.

Gold is a good buy in the UK - sovereigns are easy to buy and sell - the UK probably has the some of, if not the best prices on gold so most members here will recommend gold.

The first thing you need to do is to check out how you would sell the metal - be it gold or silver. How will you sell it when the time comes. The buy back prices for dealers are never good - you need to find a way to sell your metal at the best price possible and that is not with a dealer buy back. This is why gold is preferred b/c the premium on gold is low for many coins and you can find a coin or two that will use up your 1000€ and you 3000€ per month. i see plenty of people who have bought silver especially in the years shortly after 2011, they have lost quite a lot of money. 

My advice would be to buy gold unless you intend to keep the silver a long time. Also remember that many silver coins have a tendency to develop milk spot. So find out what is a well priced popular small gold coin in your country and start collecting that.  

[silenceissilver]

I too would consider gold and should you decide to go for gold and want to sell in Austria and want to spend roughly 300 Euros a month I would consider quarter ounce Austrian Philharmonics - and I would consider buying the old Schilling Phillharmonics and not the newer Euro ones.

I was in this shop below on my holidays last year, I said I wanted to buy a one ounce gold coin - they didn't even ask what coin but only "Schilling or Euros?" as the Philharmonic has a similar popularity in Austria the Sovereign has in the UK.

So why would I go for Schilling Philharmonics? The Austrian National bank has guaranteed to exchange Schillings into Euro indefinitely - you could still get Euros for your old Austrians Schillings there. So, the Schilling is not legal tender there anymore but exchangable into it at the national central bank, so the Schilling Phillharmonic is almost as good as the Euro one, plus in case the Euro collapses and the Schilling is reintroduced there, you have the right gold coin, too.

Unfortunately, the Silver Philharmonic was only introduced after the abolishment of the Schilling.

https://www.goldundco.at/edelmetallpreise.html

                                                                                       you get  you pay
Wiener Philharmoniker EUR 1/4 Unze         7,78    351,40    375,00    EUR
Wiener Philharmoniker ATS 1/4 Unze         7,78    348,60    360,90    EUR

PS: Needless to say, I bought a Schilling Philharmonic

[DANIEL999]

   

13 hours ago, Thelonerangershorse said:

I'd consider gold in the first place, that much silver takes up a lot of space and gets very heavy really quick.

 

12 hours ago, sixgun said:

My advice would be to buy gold unless you intend to keep the silver a long time. Also remember that many silver coins have a tendency to develop milk spot. So find out what is a well priced popular small gold coin in your country and start collecting that.  

 

11 hours ago, silenceissilver said:

I too would consider gold 

What about the gold/silver ratio? What is the reasoning here? Considering that when the stfu which is a certainty the g/s will be going under 40 and perhaps 30 which should be a huge consideration, shouldn't it? 

Did some math. The spread on the Gold Philharmonics is 3.5% to 7% (3.5 on the Schillings, 7 on the 1/10ths). Silver Philharmonics from Europeanmint sold back to Goldsilver - 5%, not too bad (in the case that I need cash). I have only referenced this against goldsilver's buyback price though. Any preferred places by the community to sell back to?

 

12 hours ago, sixgun said:

a well priced popular small gold coin in your country and start collecting that.  

Yeah... The problem with that is that there is virtually no domestic market for precious metals, meaning low demand, high prices, ridiculous spreads - 10% at best and that's for gold.

 

12 hours ago, sixgun said:

The first thing you need to do is to check out how you would sell the metal - be it gold or silver. How will you sell it when the time comes. The buy back prices for dealers are never good - you need to find a way to sell your metal at the best price possible and that is not with a dealer buy back.

Agreed. Including in the equation the local market situation that I described, what are my options?

[KevjustKev]

SHTF? Not really in Europe, more so not in the EU. Your life might not be as good as it once was, but you will still have food on the table, 'no one' will starve. france and Germany will bail out the smaller countries as they did with Greece. For SHTF it will take a world war or a pandemic. 

As others have said with that much money gold is the way to go, no more than 20% in silver IMO.

[silenceissilver]

2 hours ago, DANIEL999 said:

What about the gold/silver ratio? What is the reasoning here? Considering that when the stfu which is a certainty the g/s will be going under 40 and perhaps 30 which should be a huge consideration, shouldn't it?

The first consideration for me would be it's easier to travel with gold, in a shtf scenario criminality will go up a lot and you want to travel from Bulgaria to Austria. Or maybe you want to send it but might stealing of parcels also go up during a shtf scenario, particularly of bigger, heavier ones? Maybe not but I would consider it a possibility. Therefore I would start with gold and as you want more than just a handful of coins so you can sell only a part at a time, I would stick to it for a while. I agree you should have both. I don't know what the right gold silver ratio is. For me space is the limiting factor for silver, thus I hardly buy it anymore. Maybe go for silver with the 1000 Euros and then concentrate on gold with your monthly purchases, but it's up to you, I'm not giving financial advice.

[silenceissilver]

1 hour ago, tallthinkev said:

SHTF? Not really in Europe, more so not in the EU. Your life might not be as good as it once was, but you will still have food on the table, 'no one' will starve. france and Germany will bail out the smaller countries as they did with Greece. For SHTF it will take a world war or a pandemic.

I can't copy and paste it now, so you could search the term "Krall", I have posted about Markus Krall a few times. I don't think Germany will bail out anyone.

 

[DANIEL999]

41 minutes ago, silenceissilver said:

the right gold silver ratio

It's been as high only 5 different times before and near or above 90 just in 1991 and 1941. And it visits the 40's every ~10 years, the last time being 2011. That's how I am thinking about it. Basically, right now there is a 50% discount on gold.

https://www.macrotrends.net/1441/gold-to-silver-ratio

 

34 minutes ago, silenceissilver said:

bail out

Nope. I don't think so either. This time it will be going down, the way it looks. And the last 2 times there have been such major monetary earthquakes it went to 15 ... The real question is if there will be any gold available.

[sixgun]

3 hours ago, silenceissilver said:

I don't think Germany will bail out anyone.

i think i would prefer to be in Bulgaria - when the SHTF i would prefer to be in a rural area with a bit of land. The people are more self reliant - become able to grow your own food - you can live and feed yourself i don't believe Germany is bail anyone out. It will be sink or swim. 

There is a lot of normalcy bias - something has normally been some way or other and it will just carry on like that. The EU will not be ok. There is a risk people will starve. Assuming we have significant global cooling then there will be food price rises and shortages.

[AgCoyote]

I would buy both gold and silver. Silver is too cheap relative to gold to completely ignore. And gold is gold.

[DANIEL999]

1 hour ago, sixgun said:

i would prefer to be in Bulgaria - when the SHTF

Certainly. Loads of Germans are coming over already. 

 

Now, the RATIO 😆 Can someone please elaborate on playing the ratio in Europe. I would really appreciate that. What options are there to perhaps store silver in dealer's vault and convert to gold & deliver on demand... Or any other ideas?

 

[AgCoyote]

1 hour ago, sixgun said:

i think i would prefer to be in Bulgaria - when the SHTF i would prefer to be in a rural area with a bit of land. The people are more self reliant - become able to grow your own food - you can live and feed yourself i don't believe Germany is bail anyone out. It will be sink or swim. 

There is a lot of normalcy bias - something has normally been some way or other and it will just carry on like that. The EU will not be ok. There is a risk people will starve. Assuming we have significant global cooling then there will be food price rises and shortages.

The global paradigm will be radically different in 20 years. Quite possibly in 10 years and 5 years is not improbable.

[Pete]

Where are you located in Bulgaria ?
Are you a Brit living there or if you are a native then I commend the quality of your English.

It is impossible to give financial advice because no-one knows what will happen with gold, silver and platinum prices or their ratios.
Gold is certainly easier to trade with minimal buy / sell spreads but the price of gold can rise suddenly or collapse suddenly.
Silver is relatively much cheaper according to the gold /silver ratio but what is the right ratio ?
Platinum also used to cost more than gold but look at it now.

Investing in PMs is considered quite high risk and there are as many winners as losers.
Having myself seen parts of beautiful Bulgaria I would be more interested in buying ridiculously cheap houses in villages that are getting an influx of foreigners fed up with their own countries and getting an awful lot for very little money. Property prices are rising as more people realise what value there is - buy a farm with 3 large houses for what we pay for a kitchen refurbishment in the UK.

Place an order on Hatton Garden Metals for your gold sovereigns and book a cheap flight to Luton on Wizz air to collect.
I've seen flights from Sofia for about €5 if you do your research and book early.
 

[silenceissilver]

I still don't know what the right ratio between gold and silver is but stay away from Hatton Gardens Metals. I ordered one specific Sovereign from them and got another one. No apologies, nothing. Very unprofessional. 

Of course during the Shtf it will be preferable to be in Bulgaria rather than in Germany with her daily left wing terrorism, loads of entitled and violent "refugees", German zombies and a fall from a big hight. 

[Guest]

GSR - Silver is cheap relative to gold at the moment, you could buy silver and wait for the GSR to hit c.30 and/or below and sell out, that is assuming you believe TPTB will allow silver to go high again, the central banks know that the game is up if the public become aware that only PMs are real money, that is when a panicked flight into silver could happen as gold will become too expensive for your average Joe. Will it happen? no idea, could it happen? anything can happen in all markets, you take a punt you win or you lose like anything else. One thing to remember with silver it is called the "Devil's Metal" for a reason, it is volatile and frustrating, in a tear-up PMs bull market scenario, 90% of the silver move comes in the last 10% of the upmove in gold so a bit like Seabiscuit racing round the home straight, good luck and have fun. 

[Lowlow]

So you got a lot of suggestions for gold ..

I think it depends on what exactly SHTF means to you ..

If we're talking financial collapse, I'd recommend listening to your countrymen on what the best investment value for your money is, because they know where the VAT strikes, what your market is like, what sells and doesn't, etc .. gold and silver are both money, and both would be good for a financial collapse.

If we're talking TEOTWAWKI ...

Then I'd go silver.  Silver may be out of vogue in the UK as an investment metal because it isn't really considered "money", or a legit investment, .. but if you can get it VAT free and really mean to hold it for an actual bad event such as a nuke somewhere, then silver is going to be an actual currency when you need food, etc.  Yes, as others have said, it weighs more, and that kind of thing, but it's also spendable - buying food with gold sovereigns would be a little challenging, though its safe to assume that someone, somewhere will be trading silver for gold and it would be possible.

The U.S. really has it made on this because there is still plenty of money from the early part of the 20th century that doesn't have a high premium and is still a great investment.

[Guest]

right at this moment you can buy silver for £13.87 and sell for £13.84 London at Bullion Vault, no VAT but you will incur CGT so horses for courses, good luck and have fun

[Caratacus]

On 09/01/2020 at 16:05, sixgun said:

i think i would prefer to be in Bulgaria - when the SHTF i would prefer to be in a rural area with a bit of land. The people are more self reliant - become able to grow your own food - you can live and feed yourself i don't believe Germany is bail anyone out. It will be sink or swim. 

There is a lot of normalcy bias - something has normally been some way or other and it will just carry on like that. The EU will not be ok. There is a risk people will starve. Assuming we have significant global cooling then there will be food price rises and shortages.

People have forgotten that the last Western European famines, when Europeans starved to death (free citizens), occurred during the life time of some of the older members of this forum (sorry to sound grim). I agree with your comment about a bit of cheap Bulgarian farmland, even an acre will keep you and your family in basic grub-but totally unaffordable in England.

Germany has the potential for significant internal problems (as do most liberalised European countries; with the exception of perhaps Poland/Hungary)