Silver - When will the turnaround begin

[lmwstamps]

Silver has drifted lower for over 7 years now.  I've seen plenty of threads with predictions of price.  What are your thoughts about when the bottom will occur?  Are we at it?  Is it a couple of months away, still years away?  Perhaps never?  I'm also intrigued about any reason you may have for your guess.  In the interest of full disclosure, over the past few years I've thought several times that the bottom was in.  Obviously, I was wrong.  I think the turnaround should begin before 2020 and will be linked to a crash in the global stock markets.  Frankly, I'm surprised it hasn't happened yet.  What are your thoughts?

[sixgun]

i hear that silver has been going down since 2011 but in reality it has been going sideways since 2014. The chart shows price has been moving sideways and yet i hear it said so often that price is falling that i include this as part of the psyop on metals.

So i will say we have been bumping along the bottom for the last 4 years.

There are those who would say metals will be suppressed until the dollar is dead. The USD is what powers the cabal, so when the USD dies they will attempt to bring out something else. Perhaps a central bank cryptocurrency - just as retched as the paper currencies that are  on the go at the moment.

There are others who would say that metals will be kept in a range until China decides otherwise. Some say it will be until there is a default in physical deliveries.

Metals are suppressed as they are real money and direct competition to fiat. Gold and silver are traded on the currency markets - the silver and gold currency prices are the spot prices.

Unless you have amassed a big stack and are ready for take off, it would be better for prices to be kept low some time longer. No-one will know when the House of Cards comes down, so carry on stacking whilst the metals are on sale.

 

[lmwstamps]

7 minutes ago, sixgun said:

 

Unless you have amassed a big stack and are ready for take off, it would be better for prices to be kept low some time longer. No-one will know when the House of Cards comes down, so carry on stacking whilst the metals are on sale.

 

Agree wholeheartedly with your conclusion and with your assertion that metals are suppressed.  Also agree that you are technically be correct on silver going sideways.  

[Laurens88]

No expert at all but isn't a $15 price per oz needed for mining companies to hit the break-even point?

[Mark10110]

5 hours ago, lmwstamps said:

Silver has drifted lower for over 7 years now.  I've seen plenty of threads with predictions of price.  What are your thoughts about when the bottom will occur?  Are we at it?  Is it a couple of months away, still years away?  Perhaps never?  I'm also intrigued about any reason you may have for your guess.  In the interest of full disclosure, over the past few years I've thought several times that the bottom was in.  Obviously, I was wrong.  I think the turnaround should begin before 2020 and will be linked to a crash in the global stock markets.  Frankly, I'm surprised it hasn't happened yet.  What are your thoughts?

heres my advice on the near future price of anything, that being Stocks/Crypto/Metals, I spend a lot of time reading "tech analysis" watching youtube videos from "experts" on all 3 subjects and every single one has been people guessing. The truth is, nobody knows or if they do they are keeping it to themselves. 

The best way I can prove my point is this, Find someone who has predicted the price of something 3+ times and was accurate with reasons. Not just "it will go up sometime in the future". If you find this mythical person, please share on the forums because no one in these forums is a billionaire from knowing the future of any commodity. 

[Mark10110]

ignore m,y last post i just woke and haden't had my coffee, I buy silver just to stop me spending money on novelty items and throwing money away on the "latest Iphone". I hope I continue to do this for 20 years+ and have a nice pension. If not and I die then my Nephew and Niece will have a very nice surprise.

[Laurens88]

2 hours ago, Mark10110 said:

ignore m,y last post i just woke and haden't had my coffee, I buy silver just to stop me spending money on novelty items and throwing money away on the "latest Iphone". I hope I continue to do this for 20 years+ and have a nice pension. If not and I die then my Nephew and Niece will have a very nice surprise.

Silver sounds like a good plan for wealth distribution and maybe even possible investment for the near future. If not, it is always better than paying 1000,- euro+ Iphones. 

[AppleZippoandMetronome]

I am kind of dubious of what I've found coming from most of the easily accessible experts. The problem I have is in finding an independent expert. One who isn't affiliated with a company trying to sell gold/silver or one who isn't trying to sell books or other things. That all kind of reminds me a bit too much of the old...  in a gold rush sell the shovels. I very much agree that no one 100% knows for sure. All you can do is make moves based upon whatever plan led you to start stacking in the first place.

[HawkHybrid]

7 hours ago, Laurens88 said:

No expert at all but isn't a $15 price per oz needed for mining companies to hit the break-even point?

 

generalising is not usually valid especially as in this case

mining cost varies not only across companies but in the

same company across mines and in the same mine

across different sections. if the mean average is being

quoted then you also need the divergence to see how

badly each are being affected. it's been quoted that

some companies have cash reserves to operate for

years before needing to turn a profit(this is all part of

the longer term strategy and is fully funded). mining

companies make big investments and some use a

similar long term strategy. this means that some mines

are capable of operating at a loss for some time before

any rethink of adjusting production is required. if demand

is not there then ultimately supply will reduce but this can

take some time.

how many mines have reduced production due to price?

 

HH

 

 

[Laurens88]

7 minutes ago, HawkHybrid said:

 

generalising is not usually valid especially as in this case...

HH

 

 

Notes taken 😎

[HawkHybrid]

6 hours ago, Mark10110 said:

heres my advice on the near future price of anything, that being Stocks/Crypto/Metals, I spend a lot of time reading "tech analysis" watching youtube videos from "experts" on all 3 subjects and every single one has been people guessing. The truth is, nobody knows or if they do they are keeping it to themselves. 

The best way I can prove my point is this, Find someone who has predicted the price of something 3+ times and was accurate with reasons. Not just "it will go up sometime in the future". If you find this mythical person, please share on the forums because no one in these forums is a billionaire from knowing the future of any commodity. 

 

technical analysis can help to find the multi month lows/highs to

optimize on profits. my understanding is it's not a crystal ball

where you can go all in at the exact low.

my opinion is that silver will turn after gold turns. the odds favour

gold could have turned already at ~$1160 or soon(multi month

low) there is a good betting chance that gold will be higher in late

november 2018 after the mid term elections than it is now($/oz).

this provides traders with a possibility for a strategy to make a

profit.

silver is not like gold. it's much more volatile and very difficult to

narrow down over shorter periods of time.

technical analysis is not about predicting the future but coming

up with a strategy to improve your chances over time of making

a better profit.

 

HH

[richatthecroft]

Ha, Rhetorical question. 

But maybe the rally has commenced? Up 2% today.  But who knows, I suspect no one.  I guess historical charts don’t lie, and can give insight.  As @sixgun says, price has been going sideways since 2014.

 

[vand]

We have yet to breach the late 2015 low. Granted, we had a bounce and have given up almost all of the gains since, but the fact is that we have not been in a technical downtrend for 3 years now.

With hindsight it is clear now that prices would be attracted back to last year's "flash crash" bottom. Once an outlier price is printed, even electronically, its always likely the market will follow there sooner rather than later.

Its still building a base. what's the rush? current prices mean you can acquire more for less £££.