Bumble

Some commentators I follow reckon that there will be a significant shortfall in copper production in the next few years, because of demand from electric cars and other areas of electrification. The slack will have to be taken up by aluminium, since this is the only other plausible candidate for an inexpensive and abundant metal with a high conductivity. Obviously, good news for copper too.

I try to keep it down to about 30, though that is probably a little high. My best performing stock this year has been Emerita (EMO.V).

Moving out of oil may be a decision motivated by ESG considerations. Potash is a good thing to be in, because it is needed for fertilizer, and prices have slumped in recent years. Dropping the London listing will mean that funds that track FTSE 100 will no longer own it, but I doubt it will make much difference. I own some and I will continue to hold, along with some other big miners like Rio TInto, Glencore and Vale. All of these pay attractive dividends. I would sell all of them if demand for iron ore and copper collapsed.

BHP has announced that it is moving out of oil, but is moving into potash. It is also delisting from London. I am out of Diversified Energy (DEC) and Reconnaissance (RECO.V) but still running with I3 Energy (I3E.L and ITE.V).

I used to be a scientist when I was younger.

For information, the following table shows the electrical conductivity of some common metals. The densities are also noteworthy. Lead is similar in density to silver, and tungsten is very similar to gold. The magnetic susceptibility indicates whether the metal is paramagnetic (+ve) or diamagnetic (-ve). Tungsten is paramagnetic, so it will be attracted by a permanent magnet, while gold, silver and copper are diamagnetic.

You are quite right. The slowing up effect is an instance of Lenz's law, and is in effect a form of magnetic braking. It has nothing to do with diamagnetism. What the test is measuring is the electrical conductance of the metal. Lead, for example, has less than a tenth of the conducitivity of silver, so the difference would be very marked. Copper on the other hand is almost as conductive as silver, so the magnet test would be no good on a copper coin or bar that was silver plated.

I'm still optimistic on energy. Of the three stocks I bought earlier this year, DGOC.L renamed itself to Diversified Energy (DEC.L) and hasn't' done particularly well, though it is paying a 10% dividend, so I'm still hopeful. I3E.L has done pretty well and is paying a maiden dividend of 6%. RECO.V has been a star performer: my best this year.

Has anyone looked at investing in funds that buy and trade carbon credits? I mean things like KraneShares Global Carbon ETF (KRBN). The idea is that carbon taxes and carbon credits are going to be a big deal in the next few years, and many companies are underestimating the impact. Companies that generate credits are currently selling them cheaply and may soon wake up to the idea that if they hold them for a year or two they will be worth a lot more. Companies that face carbon taxes will be increasingly incentivised to buy at ever higher prices. The prospect looks pretty good.

Kodal is one of those investments that depends entirely on how you feel about the jurisdictional risk in West Africa. I'm not too keen myself, but to be fair, some countries are relatively safe. If you are looking for a more risky investment, EnviroLeach Technologies (ETI.CN) is develeoping a method for extracting gold from ore without using cyanide. This is potentially a big deal, since the risk of a cyanide spill and the cost of clean-up is an expensive matter for miners, and in some cases a miner may not get a permit if the risk is considered too great. The investment thesis is that if the process works and is not too expensive, a lot of mining companies will licence it and Enviroleach will get rich on the royalties. A bit too much of a punt for me.

There is an interesting follow-up to the issue of the new Basel rules. It is explained in an article written by Alasdair MacLeod and published on the GoldMoney website. Under the new rules, which come into force in Europe at the end of June, and in the UK on 1st Jan 2022, the following provisions apply: unallocated gold which banks hold on behalf of customers will not count towards reserves; unallocated gold which the banks buy from LBMA or other sources only count towards reserves at the rate of 85%; when banks hold both, i.e. unallocated gold as a liability and also as an asset, they cannot net the two off (they don't somehow cancel out). The consequence is that there will be little demand from bullion banks to hold gold in unallocated form, which in turn will result in short positions being unwound, and a reduction in the supply of paper gold contracts. Since most gold trading in London takes place in unallocated form, this will have a huge effect on the activities of the LBMA, who are opposed to the changes and are lobbying for them to be revised. Alasdair's view is that they are unlikely to be successful, so we can expect the role of the LBMA in holding down gold prices by creating synthetic supply to be curtailed. This in turn will affect Comex by reducing contract volumes, further limiting the ability for gold prices to be suppressed.

From www.321gold.com. Gold retraced nearly 50% in the middle of the 1970s bull market. It did the same in 2015. If the pattern is similar, there is still plenty of room for a further run.

Relative performance of growth (high P/E) stocks vs. value (low P/E) stocks. Looks like we may be coming to the end of the current growth run.

I don't think you can get the same exemption with eagles. You could try moving to a jurisdiction with no CGT.

So, you sold your kids and your missus to buy silver? That's dedication. Coins are usually slightly more expensive than bars for the same weight, but many people prefer coins because they are easier to trade and easier to check for being genuine. Since you are in the UK, britannia coins have the advantage that they do not attract capital gains tax. The same goes for the Queen's Beasts series, which you might still be able to get hold of, though the earlier ones are now attracting a price premium. Once you get the hang of which coins tend to be desirable, you might also like to buy multiple copies of a coin, keep them for a few years, then sell the extra ones and use the profit to buy more. Some folks manage to make their collections pay for themselves this way. Chinese pandas and Somalian elephants are often collectible, as are the lunar year sets from the Perth Mint.

There is a new Uranium royalty company (UROY) as of last week. I don't know much about it.