Bumble

Smaller is cheaper. The tiny companies are usually cheaper because of the increased risk, lower diversification and higher cost of capital. So it is not surprising that the three at the top are the biggest companies in the space.

Gold is now getting close to the upper Bollinger band and RSI is close to overbought.

Total US public debt divided by the gold price. Even though the debt continues to rise, priced in gold it is less than it was in 2001/02.

The only news I can see pushing up the gold price is that the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report was published today and was particularly poor. The previous value was 68.1, analysts were forecasting 67.2 and the result came in at 63.0.

Financings are low, which is not bullish for the gold mining sector.

@Blacksmith876 It used to be possible to buy VAT-free silver from other EU countries such as Estonia or Germany, but now this is not possible. VAT does not apply to second-hand coins, so you might be able to find some dealers selling 'pre-owned' coins. Premiums are fairly high though. For small numbers of silver coins you will probably have to pay close to £30 for a one ounce coin at current prices.

As of 1 August 2023

The US dollar is not going to cease to be the primary currency of trade and bank reserves any time soon. It may slowly diminish in these roles, but only slowly. The US cannot afford to back the dollar with gold. It is already in a condition where its entire tax revenue only just covers its welfare and healthcare payments and its debt payments. It cannot afford its military, education, transport, civil service, or anything else. No government can make severe cuts to the welfare, healthcare or military without losing the next election, so that won't happen. The result is the US will depend in future on the Fed printing currency to finance the Treasury. Printing currency into existence is not compatible with backing the currency with gold or commodities that cannot be printed into existence. It will be inflationary, and the Fed will have to pretty much give up on its inflation target. Unless some massive technological advances happen along to cause disinflation, we are going to have to live with much higher inflation in future.

On the issue of American banks... they are indeed not like Lehman Brothers with excessive speculative leverage. But it is a traditional feature of American banking that banks will offer mortgages with a fixed rate for the entire duration of the mortgage. You would never get this in the UK or other countries I know of. A fixed rate mortgage in the UK means one that is fixed for 3 or 4 years before reverting to the floating rate. For a bank to offer a mortgage at a fixed rate for 20-30 years is reckless and irresponsible. If interest rates rise, as they have, the bank is committed to receiving only the low rate of return from the existing mortgages on their book. While at the same time their savers expect to be paid the prevailing rate. US banks are offering 0.5% interest on their savings accounts because they cannot afford more given the low rate of income they receive from their mortgages. The result is savers are withdrawing their deposits and putting the money into money market funds or directly buying US government bonds where they can get 4.5%. And why shouldn't they? If I had a savings account at a bank that was paying 0.5% in the current climate I would not put up with it. At present in the UK you can get 3% on a savings account with no restrictions on access or 3.75% if you are willing to have some restrictions. If American banks are unable to provide this return for their savers then they have screwed up.

And crash goes another. FIrst Republic has gone to zero this weekend.

US Federal interest payments are approaching $1 trillion a year.

Bloomberg Commodities Index Charts. Lots of backwardation.

In a recent find in Victoria, Australia, a man found a 4.3 kg rock containing 83 ounces of gold using a metal detector. He sold it for A$240,000. https://www.kitco.com/news/2023-04-12/Australian-amateur-gold-hunter-strikes-it-rich-with-4-6kg-nugget-containing-2-6kg-of-gold.html The biggest nugget in the world is the King Henry, on display at the Perth Mint, weighing in at 93 kg, with an estimated 45 kg of gold. https://www.goldindustrygroup.com.au/news/2021/6/9/king-henry-sparkles-at-the-perth-mint

The gold price for the last three days is an almost perfect example of what candelstick technical analysts call an evening star. It is considered to be a reliable bearish indicator. But one might also point out that we had six days running of the closing price being above the upper Bollinger Band, and two days of the RSI being above 70, both of which indicate an overbought condition. As of today's close, the price is now below the upper BB and the RSI is below 70, so it could be a case of return to normal.

The Swiss central bank invested heavily in American tech stocks, to the tune of about $150 billion. They have been reducing their holdings recently.

Wham, bam. Gold and silver down a lot. On fundamental grounds, one should bear in mind that January has seasonally strong demand for gold, because of the Chinese New Year, when it is common across much of east and southeast Asia to give gifts of gold. Technically, there has been a strong rise during January and it is unsurprising to have some profit-taking and a pullback. The Bollinger bands have been doing a good job of containing the gold price. It is not uncommon to see the price bounce between the top and bottom channels, though not usually this rapidly. After a crawl upwards during January, with the price hugging the upper band, the price has now fallen from the upper band to the lower band in just two days. The closing price on Friday Feb 3 (Comex April futures) was actually $1865, right on the lower band. We could now see the price walk back to $1800, or it might consolidate around the current price. A rise to $2000 now looks unlikely in the short term.

Recently, the IMF published a working paper on the use of gold as international reserves. Working papers are just research in progress and do not represent any kind of official policy on the part of the IMF, but it is interesting that the IMF is following this. An interesting table from the report is this:

Stock performance for 2022... The best trade was long energy / short tech. Buffett did OK with a 4% gain. ARKK crashed 63%. Crispin Odey's flagship European Inc hedge fund was up 150% on the year by betting against long-dated gilts.