silversky

Poll stands at
Paul: U, James32: N, PhilB: N Honest Money: N Bloom: D Katyc: N Silversky: U
Guess for close of the week when the last tick stops. >1870.00 equals Up, <1832.00 equals Down.  in the middle Neutral.

So if I had gone short on Friday afternoon, hoping that this week was going to see a local top put in and a sizeable correction....  I'd be getting a little bit worried by now.
We've had three days of ranging about which is normal, but this meeting was supposed to be a trigger to send it crashing back down.  It hasn't happened decisively yet, and even a move to the upside appears to be starting to form in shorter timescales.  I'm picking Up for the end of this week as per my poll.

So if I had gone short on Friday afternoon, hoping that this week was going to see a local top put in and a sizeable correction....  I'd be getting a little bit worried by now.
We've had three days of ranging about which is normal, but this meeting was supposed to be a trigger to send it crashing back down.  It hasn't happened decisively yet, and even a move to the upside appears to be starting to form in shorter timescales.  I'm picking Up for the end of this week as per my poll.

So if I had gone short on Friday afternoon, hoping that this week was going to see a local top put in and a sizeable correction....  I'd be getting a little bit worried by now.
We've had three days of ranging about which is normal, but this meeting was supposed to be a trigger to send it crashing back down.  It hasn't happened decisively yet, and even a move to the upside appears to be starting to form in shorter timescales.  I'm picking Up for the end of this week as per my poll.

Well ladies and genitals. We are moving up again. Even hot inflation isn't hurting gold atm - it fought straight through a slight drop. I think this says it all. This is a REAL run. And it's only just begun.
(Terms and conditions apply: Do not confuse this with definite facts. I do not want to be the new reverse-Wonga and butt of every joke on TSF)

That my friend is the big question.  Since March it has seemingly confounded all the usual "experts" and broken free of the inverse relationship with the US dollar.  Loons and crazies on here will tell you all manner of reasons as to why... the truth probably contains a bit of each of those reasons.

The central bank buying (all over the world). And the Chinese people apparently see what's coming as they're in a right state over there.
Many other factors too (incl. knowing rates will come down means the smart money are moving over in preparation)
And conflicts in the world of course affect it.
Then it'll be in the media more and more, so Jo Public will jump on our party train.

When the news starts pumping gold, that's when you know you're at the brow of the hill.

Who knows. But appx 10 days ago Jerome Powell admitted they are throwing their hands up on inflation and they're not going to fight it anymore. He said inflation is persistent and there's simply nothing they can do about it. This tells me he's hinting rate drops are coming soon. Which in itself will be inflationary as hell (hence my alluding to 70's style inflation earlier).
But US debit is rising by $1 trillion every three months (as we already know of course), US interest expense is rising by $100 billion every 4 months. I'm guessing the powers are breathing down Powell's neck to cut.
Just my opinion. Could be wrong of course.

For the red dwarf fans out there, I'm reminded of an episode where Rimmer tells Kryten to take the lead because being out in front is dangerous.  Kryten points out that in movies it's usually the guy at the rear who buys it, so Rimmer orders him to take both the lead and the rear!   Kryten ends up orbiting around him as they go.  Gold is a bit like Kryten, seemingly orbiting and being in front and behind rates at the same time.  But something else is also going on.  Just like a cat stalking a bird, the bird sees the cat moving side to side.  But it does not see that the cat also moves slightly closer with each sideways pass.  Gold is diverging from fiat in each of these shuffles back and forth with rates.  It only becomes obvious on the longer timescales.

For the red dwarf fans out there, I'm reminded of an episode where Rimmer tells Kryten to take the lead because being out in front is dangerous.  Kryten points out that in movies it's usually the guy at the rear who buys it, so Rimmer orders him to take both the lead and the rear!   Kryten ends up orbiting around him as they go.  Gold is a bit like Kryten, seemingly orbiting and being in front and behind rates at the same time.  But something else is also going on.  Just like a cat stalking a bird, the bird sees the cat moving side to side.  But it does not see that the cat also moves slightly closer with each sideways pass.  Gold is diverging from fiat in each of these shuffles back and forth with rates.  It only becomes obvious on the longer timescales.

They need the Demoncraps in at the next election. They will cut, as will the UK's BoE later in the year. That will cause inflation to spike. The effect of that will be felt 12-18 months later. 

In the UK, I expect that Labour will go on a spending binge, fueled by deficit spending and then in 18 months time, look to jack up taxes all over the place, blaming Conservatives whilst doing so.

They really can't wait much longer. They are in a pickle with the interest on their debt. They really need rates to come down and have officially confirmed it in a report recently (I'll try find the info)

Yes it magically has to achieve both for the logic to make it all the way back round and join up again.   Something never seems to quite add up with those sort of arguments about rates.  Don't know.

Yes it magically has to achieve both for the logic to make it all the way back round and join up again.   Something never seems to quite add up with those sort of arguments about rates.  Don't know.

Yes it magically has to achieve both for the logic to make it all the way back round and join up again.   Something never seems to quite add up with those sort of arguments about rates.  Don't know.

Yes it magically has to achieve both for the logic to make it all the way back round and join up again.   Something never seems to quite add up with those sort of arguments about rates.  Don't know.

Looks like up has the upper hand in the real world for now...  but not much in it really.
Bloomman's vote takes it to 2 up 1 down and 3 neutral.  A few more and we'll have enough votes for an FOMC rates meeting.... 
Friendly reminder. Up >1870.00, Down <1832.00, Neutral anywhere between.  Close of market when it stops moving...

 

Looks like up has the upper hand in the real world for now...  but not much in it really.
Bloomman's vote takes it to 2 up 1 down and 3 neutral.  A few more and we'll have enough votes for an FOMC rates meeting.... 
Friendly reminder. Up >1870.00, Down <1832.00, Neutral anywhere between.  Close of market when it stops moving...

 

updated 2, 0, 3  James' attempted breach of the terms has been ignored, and his hanging chad indicates that he voted up!

@MrStacker, prepare yourself bud ??? Looks like @Agaupl is making a run to be top dog on the graph charts???? @MrStacker your in 3rd place at the moment , @HonestMoneyGoldSilver is second , and @BLOOMMAN101 is top dog ???, pull your finger out @Agaupl, you can do it bud 😀👍

Stop checking spot prices and keep buying😮😮🤔

I say that Band Of America is pencilling in gold to be at $3000 in 2025.  Banks are not good at making predictions on gold as we have seen before, however if this is correct it would mean gold in GBP hitting about £2350…