Harry Dent

[Minimalist]

I dont know if this is in the appropriate section, if not, apologies in advance.

Anyway, I am a keen listener to Dent, I have listened to him for years and probably agree with about half of his predictions of his outlook on the financial markets.

However, he is adamant that Gold is heading towards $1,000 (I dont believe so), Bitcoin to zero (yes, zero, I almost laughed), there is little inflation (I know, weird), there will be a massive S&P500 correction - upwards of 40% or more (the only thing I agree on with him at the moment).

I mean, if he is suggesting to buy nothing and only invest in his book to make him wealthier I would appreciate his honesty, but nothing to save us? Really?

 

[Kman]

I found where he talked about gold "because gold is an inflation hedge" disagree, gold is a hedge against a broken currency system runaway inflation or deflation

he says gold went down in 2008 because people saw Lehman brothers failing and realised it was a deflationary breakdown, disagree, from what I've learned from Jeff Snider gold is collateral of last resort, they liquidate gold when there's nothing else left; everything will get sold off in a crisis by those desperate for liquidity to stay solvent: March 2020

Too many people like Bitcoin and believe in it

I agree with him there will be deflation though 

S&P500 I'm starting to think because people don't want the risk of investing in the real world they would rather put money into FAANG stocks, which for the past year turned out to be a great choice

 

 

[ady]

I think a deflationary collapse is quite  possible and a  drop to £1000 and below possible due to liquidation, but the tell will come when  paper and derivatives are found out  and it PMs will be unafordable and unobtainium, with an eventual BTC equilibrium for a true free trade in currency. 

[KDave]

We bear witness to the year 2000 being repeated again. This will lead to a collapse like that will hurt huge numbers of people. Deflationary? No is it ****. 

There will be a crash. Followed by reflation. Followed by inflation averaging 6% a year over the next decade, people will be shocked at high prices for certain things will go. 

[Minimalist]

6 minutes ago, KDave said:

We bear witness to the year 2000 being repeated again. This will lead to a collapse like that will hurt huge numbers of people. Deflationary? No is it ****. 

Agree

Its sideways price action until the inflation kicks in. If it wasnt for the suppression and central banks selling gold to each other at an insane low price then I believe Gold would be staying above the $2,000.

[Minimalist]

These were found on Mike Maloneys recent price action video. Dent is sure that deflation will kick in leading it to $1,000.

[Bumble]

Gold is perhaps better correlated with inflation expectations than with inflation itself. It is also strongly inversely correlated with real interest rates, which is unsurprising since one can regard those as the opportunity cost of holding gold, or indeed any safe haven asset.

As to price inflation, in the last three months we have

CRB Commodities Index: +21%
Oil: +40%
Corn: +32%
Lean Hogs: +13%
Lumber: +72%

Inflation is a lagging indicator, but it is only a matter of time before these feed through into the kind of inflation that is measured by CPI.

As to a deflationary bust, it can only happen if governments and central banks stand by and let it happen, which they won't.  We already know what they will do, because they have told us. They will engage in as much monetary and fiscal stimulus as it takes to stop it.

Fiscal stimulus is already on the way in any event. And it will only become greater. An interesting quote I came across recently is this from Alan Greenspan in 2015: “A surprisingly large percentage of US income tax receipts are tied to a rise in US stock prices. When the US stock market just stops rising - not falls, but just stops rising - that will put pressure on the receipt side of the US fiscal picture, which no one is talking about.”

[Kman]

15 minutes ago, Bumble said:

As to a deflationary bust, it can only happen if governments and central banks stand by and let it happen, which they won't.  We already know what they will do, because they have told us. They will engage in as much monetary and fiscal stimulus as it takes to stop it.

That's the popular view and what governments and central banks want you to think, they control everything

The US can give it's inhabitants dollars but will those dollars be spent and reach around where they're needed globally?

If you look at the 2007/8 MBS issue in the US, why did it effect foreign banks, why did it hurt Northern Rock? did it matter what the UK government and BoE were doing at the time; If dominos start falling somewhere in the world they will knock everything down

 

[Stu]

3 hours ago, Kman said:

That's the popular view and what governments and central banks want you to think, they control everything

The US can give it's inhabitants dollars but will those dollars be spent and reach around where they're needed globally?

If you look at the 2007/8 MBS issue in the US, why did it effect foreign banks, why did it hurt Northern Rock? did it matter what the UK government and BoE were doing at the time; If dominos start falling somewhere in the world they will knock everything down

 

Yeah, and the worlds central banks along with the central banks, central bank, bank of international settlements will spark up the printing in unison. The BIS is the only bank with a solvent balance sheet, at the moment.Thst will change. May bring on the special drawing rights which may be the plan all along.