silversky

Big drop in National insurance tax. Looks like the Tories are planning for an election... Not sure how it affects the price of gold though. US durable goods orders are sharply down. That has more chance of having an impact...

I have two half sovs. One George and one Edward if interested. 1913 and 1908

Looks like a bit of a short squeeze underway at the moment. The shorts have made a bit of bank for the last couple of weeks as the normalisation in tensions crystallised. It always happens, but now it looks like another wave upwards is about to break out. It's the economic climate which is what is really underlying the price movements.

And here's a good breakdown of the UK inflation numbers, and why they're such a scam. I guess it'll all feed through to gold eventually through loss of GBP purchasing power.

They'd confiscate your brits, freeze your account, and accuse you of money laundering for having the smarts to hold real money.

UK yoy inflation came in better than forecast. Actual 4.6%, forecast 4.8%, previous was 6.7%

Seems to have dropped relentlessly this week. I think realistically there's another couple of months to go before any serious break above new high. Looking to the USD chart, in terms of time, this leg down should be about to terminate soon. It may even stop right around here at 1938, a measured a b c corrective wave would match nicely if this is a simple correction. Perhaps it will head lower to the 1910's though, which would also be a 1.61 ratio extension of the first wave and combine with other technical support. But range trading up to new year is what I expect. UK price obviously depends on the fx rate which is highly sensitive to bank rate and growth. Interestingly, house prices actually rose slightly last month, signalling that there is just enough room to squeeze a bit more out of people. There's a few economic indicators to come in over the next few days, so we could see some movement in the pound. The massaged GDP numbers came in today, all were better than expected by a tiny fraction. Quarterly growth was zero, instead of a forecast contraction, and monthly figures increasing on last month. The annual inflation number is due on the 15th, and the market expects a significant reduction of nearly 2% less inflation than the previous number. Hard to see that being tweaked into existence... but maybe things are actually grinding in the right direction, enough at least to enable the tweak masters to mark a better number.

Something I notice about this chart is that previous rapid drops from highs, were followed by not just a single sharp spike down into M2 contraction, but a bounce first on the way down, and then a further drop into contraction. On the basis of this chart alone, it would seem not unreasonable to assume that this current precipitous drop in M2 growth, will be met with some sort of bounce (more fiddling) before a secondary drop into sharp contraction. But a lot of things have changed since the days at the start of this chart, and even more freedoms to fiddle exist today... So who really knows.

I think the chance of ww3 is diminishing. Therefore, I think gold will take a fall between now and the next financial stress, which is always looming in the background. It could wind up down in the mid 1400's by spring 24 if none of the pressing disasters come to pass. But I don't think it'll drop much below mid 1500's, Any benefit you get from holding off buying a small amount, will be chump change compared to missing out and potentially a very big rise if things do start to really go bad. More likely is a bit of range trading here imo.

Anyone have a chart of gold to big mac ratio?

More interesting in Silver. It's up... Gold down 0.5%, Silver up 1.2%

Will we see a rise into the weekend? Or will this crash below £1600 for a solid correction? I think this middle east drama is coming to a point where it will either start to spread, or it will be obvious that the Americans have enough firepower on location to keep a lid on it. My feeling is the latter, and that it will be bearish short term for gold. But just in case it does kick off.... how many of us have our tickets for this comfy bunker? Not many I'm guessing... Bonus of living in a vault... no need for a separate vault to store all your gold.

Not sure what all this talk of down is about? Yesterday was barely a pause! More US assets are arriving in the region daily, and the big ones will all be in place by the weekend... Up to now, a slow boil has been underway (no doubt directed by US planners), trying not to raise worldwide reactions too quickly before a strong defensive position can be managed. But that status quo may not last, especially after all the big assets are in place. Next weekend will not in my opinion be a good time to be holding an open short in a closed gold market... Any downward action will therefore need to take place before Friday.

Yeah sorry off topic a bit in this reply, but it indicates the length of time that this is going to go on for, and that people will eventually realise at some point, and probably when they do that gold will drop back as this settles into the clean up operation. This guy is an actual hero, he is the son of a Hamas founder, and he turned into a spy for Israel giving up plans to foil Hamas attacks saving innocent peoples' lives. He has some serious beef with Hamas, and he doesn't mince his words for the western fools shouting their anti Israel rhetoric. This is his message to the people of the West who are protesting right now! It's bang on. Four minutes only and well worth watching. ...Wears open shirt and aviator shades like some sort of lunatic Borat character... "your opinion doesn't matter" - wry grin "in the middle east we deal with business the middle east style" - makes gangsta gun hand gesture "we're going after Hamas leaders, and we're gonna kill all of them..." - not mincing about Grins before saying, "as you see, I'm not politically correct, I'm not your type, and I will not be..." - Yup, not a polite dinner party guest for many of the posh middle class socialists who claim to support Palestine, when in actual fact it is a hatred of Israel contained in their hearts.

It beats fighting for "freedom and democracy" half way around the planet over black gold and rare metals. This war is real, and it's existential. Israel is completely united for the first time in my life. Hamas and their puppet masters really should fear the sleeping giant which they've awoken. Hamas were clearly hoping that the hostages would fracture the people of Israel, that they would be paralysed by infighting and indecision. The opposite has happened. How this newly awakened giant sets about destroying Hamas is anyone's guess, but it's clear that they're not going to stop until they're secure again. They won't be stopped by lying media, or by articles from the BBC journalists and their ilk taking sides with terrorists. And the lack of outrage by many of Europe's new citizens, has given clear eyes as to how important it is that they find a solution themselves which will last. Hiding behind technology and iron domes has failed. Allowing the UN to feed a crocodile has failed. Something else is being considered. Perhaps Iran will be brave and stupid enough to get involved, but I'm really not so sure. The US has signalled the strongest ever support for Israel in history, from the Democrats no less. Vast military power is already the region, and more is arriving every day. It would be extreme folly to play the 'f about find out' game, and ultimately I don't think this conflict will actually spread too far because of it. Bigger players know that this is not a hill they want to die on. Some will be happy to see uncle Sam embroiled in the middle east again, but they won't want to waste much of their own resources in the fight. Gold might break up above this $2000 area, even boosting another £100 - £200 or so in the short term, but by Christmas, I expect to see an understanding that this isn't going to end in nukes at dawn, and gold will probably head back down again. Perhaps this price point will become a new base for gold in the first few months of 2024. This war isn't going away any time soon, but the threat of an all out extinction conflict is also not as high as some might imagine.

I agree that weak hands selling into strong hands is likely. It's all well and good having a little real money saved, but when one needs the money to survive, one must liquidate it.

Okay, my turn to weigh in on feedback. My feedback has been mostly as a seller, but I do have some buyer and swap feedback in there too. I never leave feedback either way until the sale is complete, and a sale is only complete when the item has arrived and BOTH parties are aware of that. It is therefore incumbent on the buyer to notify the seller, either through PM or through feedback, and until that is done, I do not leave feedback for buyers. As the seller, I have found that despite only ever selling coins on here which were in mint condition (absolutely no doubts about this), were meticulously packaged better than any dealer has ever sent to me, and were notified throughout all steps from payment receipt, to posted, to tracking number etc, some buyers simply don't acknowledge receipt! When that is the case, I don't initiate leaving feedback. This isn't ebay, it's a mostly private forum, and so I believe that it's only polite to notify the seller of receipt, especially if the seller has gone to quite some effort to carefully package an expensive item. I don't mind if buyers don't leave feedback, I'm a long time member with plenty of accurate feedback already, but I do think it's just polite to let a seller know through PM that an expensive item has arrived safely. It's just good manners on a private forum. Having said that, I do understand that some buyers may not wish to be left feedback for privacy reasons, and I'm quite happy to be asked not to leave feedback. Communication is easy. As the seller, my duty is to make sure that the item is described accurately, has decent enough photos so that the buyer knows what he is getting, that a sale description is given and agreed, that payment is acknowledged in a timely manner, that the packing is good and secure, that postage is done in a timely manner, and that tracking if applicable is notified to the buyer. As the buyer, it is my duty to pay promptly after agreeing to the sale, and to communicate that the item has arrived safely. Feedback is optional of course, but a seller should reciprocate if a buyer leaves feedback. This is my understanding of the etiquette, happy to be corrected if I've been doing it wrong all these years .

Yikes!

Silver looks like it has a far more solid base than gold. More potential to play catch up as well.

IDF saying that Hamas headquarters are underneath the hospitals... Yikes! They're also saying that this means that the hospitals are no longer protected under the rules of war... Looks like it might get nasty. That sort of thing could easily trigger an expansion. Price rise is the world taking a deep breath at the prospect.

My best guess is a gentle drop to the £1580's. Any good news will be met with a much larger drop of course. But how likely is good news??? Not really very likely. So unless things get massively worse than already expected, this kind of feels like it's the top to me for now. Having said that, US is bombing Iranian targets in Syria now, and the US is shipping patriot missiles to 8 nations... It kind of feels like they're preparing for the big one... Who knows.

Needs to lose £50 an ounce to complete a sensible correction.

Here's the monthly chart. Find me a bigger candle from open to close. If this closes out at the end of the month, at or above where we are now, it will be the single biggest monthly candle in years. It would be extremely bullish. But it may all collapse prior to the end of the month, such a large candle is uncommon to say the least.

I think it's natural on the forum for people not to wish to buy after a period of rises. But once things have stabilised in the paper markets, the physical prices will creep up to align as people begin to accept a new normal. Joe public is mostly completely oblivious to this forum. Members here are savvy buyers, many don't wish to buy at ATH, but that'll change again if this rise in price becomes the new normal. It always has. When there are drops in the paper price, the physical price tends to remain stubbornly high for a bit, until sellers are forced to revisit their price after a failure to make a sale. In short, it's normal.

Does anyone have a good source of paper vs physical premiums which is updated on a daily basis? My only source s looking at sales prices from dealers which is hardly much use and also is not chartable. I'd like to see a chart, to see where the lines cross over during the paper panics, and where they drag down the physical market during the repression years.