silversky

Many on here seem to think that for the short term. Perhaps a sign that there isn't as much downward pressure as we imagine. However, it's so heavily manipulated that sentiment barely matters these days.

I think we're in agreement here. I'm expecting a low back in the mid 17's again. If it dips to the 16's then its a screaming buy. Inflation is a backstop against losing money at that level, so if I had spare to pump in at that price I would be. I might be a seller a bit higher up though, I think they'll cap all this trouble and tamp things down again for another year or so. It looks like an abc ongoing in elliot wave theory, with a flat a and c wave likely at 17 handle. But I could be horribly wrong of course. I just think that anything in the 16's will be very short lived no matter what happens.

Another very strong weekly close. But will it continue? I have a feeling that it will top out close to a full retrace of the previous collapse from the 20's, before working back down again. If it punches through though, it'll likely spend a bit of time consolidating above before setting off on a spectacular rise. But on balance, I think that's less likely. I think a decline back to the 17's is more likely over the coming weeks followed by a real move upwards in the early summer. Either way, it looks like a big move upwards is coming in the next few months.

If silver makes a full 100% retrace to the 24.6 area, then I'll feel far more confident about it consolidating and making a push out of the down trend. It's such a steep rise that steep falls are usually on the cards after that. If it can break and hold for a few weeks of sideways trading, then that would be a very strong signal for action in the summer. I remain to be convinced though. The banking dramas will be capped in my opinion. Just a feeling but what do I know hahaha

Yes. Gold broke out above the three (in fact four) previous highs in GBP, and is now consolidating above as shown on the weekly chart below. Perhaps Silver will manage to do the same above the last three highs? Hard to know if it will be turned down if and when it reaches the previous highs, or whether it might just punch straight through like gold did. Obviously, it's performed far poorer than gold for a while now, so it has a lot further to go to play catch up.

I'm genuinely rather surprised that Silver has managed to push on up to where it currently is. I expected far more of a base building effort than this sharp rebound. Another positive weekly candle is forming today, and I feel that close tomorrow will give us a strong indication as to whether this recovery has legs or not. In both currencies it is approaching strong resistance, but who knows, it may just punch on through and form some sort of consolidation above. Interesting move.

As long as when my house is burning, I can look over to see those b4st4rd's houses burning as well, it won't be so bad. But if their houses are protected (and I suspect they are), it will be double as painful for the rest of us... Real trouble is coming. How long is anyone's guess. But it's going to be bad because the west is so fractured now compared to 2008. We are not a mono ethnic block any more. Humans will fight each other on ethnic lines when the resources dry up. It's just a reality that has played out again and again and again throughout history.. It's NEVER "different this time". Check out Beirut if you doubt it. It's within living history.... Here's a bit of music that might be relevant for the next crash. AI is about to experience an event horizon. And when it does, and things crash, we're going to experience a new type of hell.... Dark in here hehehe Check out the lyrics... "Humans were divided, probots and the robophobes.." The next track (Eden) on this album is beautiful. Worth a listen if you like retro 80's synth stuff.

White marubozu on the weekly. That's a pretty strong candle to be fair. Not sure if it will continue next week, but the signal is strong. I reckon it must drop to test 22$ again, but who knows if it bounces up after that or not. I'm expecting a 'high wave' candle next week on the weekly chart. Symptomatic of strong forces and confusion. A start and end at roughly the same level, with a high and a low during the week. Just my opinion and might be horribly wrong

Does anyone know a good source of paper to 'commodity x' ratios? Whenever I hear about the paper to silver ratio, I always wonder what the paper to oil or Uranium ratio is at the time. I imagine that these things have been steadily rising as the complex derivative system groans under the ever increasing weight

can have a couple off me for £800 each if you're interested.

I wasn't being harsh. Just a bit of a joke really. We normally get Paul in here asking us to wake him up when it gets to £50. lol. It might or might not punch through the tramlines. If it does, it will likely return to kiss them before setting off on any actual moonshot. A kiss having broke through is where a good paper buy should be placed. But I suspect it's not going to break through just yet. A trip back down to start again is most likely IMO. I can see 18 or even 17 oversold before the cooker gets going.

Moonshot cancelled again? Or just a temporary setback?

Maybe the moon ride is back on because Musk hasn't stepped down as CEO, , despite saying he would abide by the poll. Or is that Doge coin? Not sure these days, everything seems to involve Musk. A friend told me before the result, that Musk is a genius and that he wouldn't be stepping down. That he was simply getting his enemies to identify themselves and activate their bots. Now that they're out in the open, he knows who all the bots are run by, and where to train his guns. If true, it was a smart play.

Gold, silver or chocolate?

In the graph below, the current price is now touching the area of previous support during the covid years. The price descended multiple times to touch the 21.4 - 22 zone. After falling below this price, the zone now represents overhead resistance to a rise. If it defeats this implied resistance, and breaks through, there will likely be a strong rise and the zone would become resistance again to a decline. It's common for a break to return and kiss the zone it just broke, and I suspect that we could see that here. I would give it more than a 50% chance that it will initially be deflected back down below the zone for a few more weeks though. If it does break through, and then return back to kiss the zone, it will represent a good buying opportunity. The weekly candle as it stands is bullish on the chart, although it would be more bullish above 21.65 and extremely bullish above 22. Either way, an inflection point is coming. Next week's close will tell us which way things are going to go for the next month or two.

So it hit 22, fell back to the 21.3 area and is now working around the 21.5 area. The weekly candle looks bullish if it closes where it is now. More bullish though if a rise up to the 21.7 area is achieved before the close. Inflation was lower than expected, rates will likely not be rising as much, or as quickly as previously anticipated. This is less bearish for PMs. Not sure where I stand though. I suspect that the serious economic problems will weigh heavily on silver demand, but equally, the sustained high cost of energy makes extracting and refining physical expensive, compared to a year or two ago. These forces are possibly in balance. Who knows...

For it to hold, it really needs to push up towards 22, before dropping back to the 21 area and holding. If it doesn't boost above 21 for a bit, and it drops back below, it'll drop right back. Just my opinion of course, but who the heck knows.

big head fake

Ah yes that's the line... YAY!!

Hang on, hang on, hang on. Paul usually says something like "are we at £50 an ounce yet?" Come on Paul, say the line...

Some are forecasting deflation is on its way. The BBC added a new tab called "cost of living" only a couple of days ago. Usually when the media make a big noise about something economic, the effect of it is already close to its peak. The American press have been talking about their inflation issue for quite a while now, and I'm getting overblown vibes from it all. Just came across this article today. It describes a situation where inventories have been built up higher than previous over the last 18 months, mostly because of supply chain fears, and that these high inventory levels, mean lower prices as businesses struggle to get rid of product. They therefore forecast a deflationary pulse is on its way. https://deflation.com/expert-commentary/stack-em-high-and-sell-em-cheap-a-deflation-pulse-is-coming/

I'm beginning to think it might be a while away yet. It looks impossible, but it always looks impossible, which is precisely why the market always fools the majority. I think that there's a good chance that houses in the UK will continue to rise in value, despite terrible economic, financial and political headwinds. I don't think that the FED will actually take much action, until it's waaaay too late. Inflation will be partly ignored for some time to come, and the dollar will remain strong for far longer than anyone can imagine right now. There is quite literally no good reason for it, and yet it remains strong defying all logic. I could of course be wrong, nothing functions these days as a real market. All markets are so interfered with, that none of the traditional logic applies anymore. The midterms and a democratic wipeout will probably boost US confidence, with hope for an improvement in 2024. Regardless of whether that improvement in politics is actually forthcoming, the market will price it in over the next two years. Once 2024 rolls around, any potential recovery will already be fully in the price. The systemic problems are gigantic, and collapse of the western leveraged system is all but inevitable. In the meantime, the wall of worry will be climbed, gold and silver will be left out in the cold for a while longer. It all depends on whether cheap energy can be sourced or not. The UK is in a terrible situation over that, less so the USA if they incentivise the local producers and refiners. Sorry to be so short term bearish on PM's, but if all that's happened over the last two years has resulted in lower prices in real terms, I just can't see the inevitable further bad news being much of a catalyst for rising prices. Not until it's meltdown time, and we're actually a fair way off that for now. Of course, how this effects the price in pounds is anyone's guess. It'll depend on whether our new leader is able to pretend to be Maggie and galvanise the nation into believing a load of gibberish. Ultimately though, the UK is facing far too many serious problems, and I imagine that the pound will devalue further over the coming two years. This is likely to have the effect of cancelling out any drops priced in USD, making PM's a safe neutral bet. Longer term however, I believe that they're a screaming buy.

Yikes. If the supreme court were to reverse this ruling, surely it would save an awful lot of boating accidents each year.

Ahh, the heady days of populism. What a breath of fresh air to hear such straightforward honesty from a political candidate. But the swamp struck back hard. No reverse gear for these people. Eventually the dollar will crack, and when it does, metals will explode. Wish I knew when though.

So that's where the diamagnetic personality comes from.