silversky

So if I had gone short on Friday afternoon, hoping that this week was going to see a local top put in and a sizeable correction.... I'd be getting a little bit worried by now. We've had three days of ranging about which is normal, but this meeting was supposed to be a trigger to send it crashing back down. It hasn't happened decisively yet, and even a move to the upside appears to be starting to form in shorter timescales. I'm picking Up for the end of this week as per my poll.

That my friend is the big question. Since March it has seemingly confounded all the usual "experts" and broken free of the inverse relationship with the US dollar. Loons and crazies on here will tell you all manner of reasons as to why... the truth probably contains a bit of each of those reasons.

For the red dwarf fans out there, I'm reminded of an episode where Rimmer tells Kryten to take the lead because being out in front is dangerous. Kryten points out that in movies it's usually the guy at the rear who buys it, so Rimmer orders him to take both the lead and the rear! Kryten ends up orbiting around him as they go. Gold is a bit like Kryten, seemingly orbiting and being in front and behind rates at the same time. But something else is also going on. Just like a cat stalking a bird, the bird sees the cat moving side to side. But it does not see that the cat also moves slightly closer with each sideways pass. Gold is diverging from fiat in each of these shuffles back and forth with rates. It only becomes obvious on the longer timescales.

Yes it magically has to achieve both for the logic to make it all the way back round and join up again. Something never seems to quite add up with those sort of arguments about rates. Don't know.

Looks like up has the upper hand in the real world for now... but not much in it really. Bloomman's vote takes it to 2 up 1 down and 3 neutral. A few more and we'll have enough votes for an FOMC rates meeting.... Friendly reminder. Up >1870.00, Down <1832.00, Neutral anywhere between. Close of market when it stops moving...

updated 2, 0, 3 James' attempted breach of the terms has been ignored, and his hanging chad indicates that he voted up!

Up >1870: 1 Down <1832: 0 Neutral: 1

Quick poll... Up, Down or Neutral by the end of the week? Neutral defined as between 1832 and 1870. Up as >1870, Down as < 1832

Your post insinuates an important point. A return to honest valuations necessitates the collapse of the whole fiat system worldwide. Quite literally everything is running on the too big to fail mantra right now. Do we even want to see real value as individuals? The price would almost certainly see Armageddon for many of us, and the beans index would trump gold and silver for a while. Many of our children would be killed in pointless wars, even if we somehow managed to avoid a cataclysmic nuclear exchange. Cheery thought for the day... Is accepting the financial blue pill actually better for us now?

I always wondered if these were simply higher because of all the import export restrictions placed on private individuals by the Chinese government. There's a lot of gold smuggling all across Asia, much of it seemingly due to restrictions on ownership and taxes for import export, rather than just standard criminal activity. As an individual, it seems hard to take advantage of the arbitrage in physical between west and east. One cannot take delivery of a few kg of gold in the west, and then travel to China and sell it. They'll have it off you at the border, because it's not permitted. As a result, I've always been a little bit sceptical over some of the claims made regarding the premiums in Shanghai. Protected markets tend to have skewed prices. I think both the east and the west have corrupted markets, just in different ways. Happy to have it explained to me what's really going on, if someone has a solid read to recommend on the process.

Most interesting. Where are you getting the data please? Is it just published government AM/PM fixes? Or is it live exchange feed? Importing exporting PM's to from China is less than easy for private individuals, and I don't really trust the official numbers because of all the restrictions on trade.

Totally irrelevant to the price of gold. Gold is not being driven by some squabble in the desert. Iran cannot even engage in a direct war (see ww3 page for explanation why), and the March price action in PM's was entirely disconnected from anything to do with Israel, Gaza, or Iran. So none of the rise now is about political tension. This is economic! It's the lid letting off steam in the accelerating fiat devaluation.

It could be £27 next week mate, and £30 in less than a month.... If Master Gold keeps dragging out his ugly sister to play, eventually she's gonna snap, and go stratospheric. It always happens. Looking back at the 2010/11 rise in Silver, Silver added 80% in four months over the autumn of 2010. It had a short breather for January and added 80% again in only three months in the early part of 2011. Yup... 80% low to high, TWICE!!! Not saying it's going to happen again, but if they don't get Gold under control soon, eventually the pressure will just be too much for Silver. Blue boxes not over the dates where the rises occurred, only so that the price action remains visible. But the rise data in the box is correct, as is the percentage advance. First bump after long period of range trading and itching to break out in 2010... Four months, end of August to end of December, £9/oz increase, representing 80% advance in price. One month off for January and a small decline, followed by the second bump... Feb Mar Apr of 2011. £13.45 increase this time, again representing an 80% advance in price. It's impressively symmetrical for a percentage price advance in both waves, taking the price from approx £11.30 all the way to £30. Obviously it was followed shortly by catastrophe and a significant grinding decline. But it shows people new to Silver exactly what Silver is capable of every few years. But a word of warning before anyone gets too excited about the next coming of Silver Jesus... If they manage to tamp Gold back down any time soon (which I think they'll try), Silver could easily turn tail and head straight back down to the 20 handle, in just a couple of savage trading days. And it could even break deeply into the old trading range again, ruining many small specs. I can honestly see them testing that range hard, raping every long trading stop which must exist just inside it. They absolutely love bending the small specs over, and they have enough ammo to do it. We saw back in December that they had enough to even play Gold in the after market hours one Sunday night... and the Silver market is tiny by comparison. Anyway, interesting to idly contemplate the next big Silver explosion, no idea if it will happen this year or not, but it will probably catch me off guard when it does.

OMG leprechauns DO exist!! I always thought the cheeky Irish were just pulling me leg.. Now where's that pot of gold? The thing at his feet looks a bit small.

Mostly wrong except later on during impulse waves. And they don't usually anticipate those, they get on board...

It's already recovered 50% of the little correction after hours. Seems hard to believe that it'll put in new highs all over again this week. But if it does, where's it going to stop? Where's it going to at least pause? It's been nearly a solid month in one direction.

Back to a new ATH by London open?

Is Japan open already? Or this is just after market action? I can't see this rise going much further tbh. Not without a bit of range trading to settle in some new pricing realities. But what do I know?... I didn't expect the last month's action at all, and I find myself feeling contrary to it which is a little off putting hahaha.

So is March the start of the big financial attack from the East? Seems like this move in Gold is a sign that they're beginning to squeeze.... Nothing will accelerate the transition to their stated aim of a new multipolar world like the collapse of the Western financial system. It's been long coming, with the opening moves played for quite some time to allow separation when the west collapses, but is this the start of the big attack? Or will we see some big corrections in PMs yet? I think I've been so contrary for so long that I might be at risk of being contrarian as things turn and I'm finally proved right on gold and silver!!! I have to try not to go contrary against my own longer held contrary views.... Yeah yeah sounds like gibberish but it makes sense in my head....

Just checked in to find this.... Phew, that's some hectic monitoring I thought... What could possibly have happened to the price today?.... Checks price: Small pullback from a parabolic rise..... ....ignores three whole pages of comments.

Store it under pure Argon!!! That's how certain museum pieces are stored. Problem solved. I did actually consider experimenting with this idea for fun, but instead I just use airtight tubs with anti-tarnish strips and moisture removers to clean the Sulphur and water out of the small amount of trapped air. They seem to have done a superb job for nearly a decade now, and my coins look brand new still. The most important thing to ensure good results would seem to be the choice of box. There must be no rubber or PVC in the construction, therefore the seal around food tubs needs to be researched to confirm that it is in fact silicon or plastic based, rather than of a rubber or PVC compound. Obviously the plastic tubs must not be PVC based either. The brand I use are Lock & Lock, model HPL 824 with a blue seal. They fit 6 mint tubes perfectly with a little space for an anti tarnish strip and a moisture sachet tucked in with them. Royal mint coins look exactly the same as they did nearly a decade ago. If I could be bothered I'd fit them with a plastic valve system so I could replace the Oxygen with Argon as well, but it really isn't worth the considerable effort to make up a load of lids like that. These food tubs and the strips and sachets to go inside them, cost less than an ounce to hold 150 ounces in brand new shiny condition for at least a decade, probably forever. Not too time consuming, expensive or difficult to achieve. The hardest part is researching a solution which you can be confident will work. I know that mine works, so I won't be changing it.

Silver looks to be leading gold down at the moment. Gold might have put in a little double top on the daily, but Silver barely made an effort and is already chugging downhill. Maybe gold will pick up and drag Silver with it reluctantly. It certainly doesn't look keen to rise at the moment. Edit: added below. Silver looks like it's already rolled over the top, and getting ready to plummet back to £18... but maybe not. Whereas Gold looks like it's still fighting with the top and hasn't given up yet. It might or might not go for an extension, and if it does then Silver will probably have it's decline halted and behave like a sullen child rather than follow suit enthusiastically.

Apparently we're the hard core stackers... been around since before it was trendy... as old as the hills or summit like that.... and we know what we're talking about!!!... But it's a fair point he raises about how much Silver to hold. I can't remember where I posted my views and reasons on it, but I reckon holding your own weight in Silver is a good start. It's more than enough to keep you and the family out of trouble in a severe financial devastation including no electricity water etc. and it's enough to make a nice difference if it just does a 5 to 10 times revaluation due to commodity shortages and or precious metals revaluation. The former outcome is extremely unlikely, but the latter one is entirely likely at some point imo.

They obviously read chatGPT's 101 reasons why gold is doomed...

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