silversky

A very good point. I have avoided the minted bars in blisters precisely for that reason. I'd rather have it open and check it myself for my own peace of mind. I realise that the manufacturers have a system of numbers and records to aid with verification, but I haven't looked into how effective they are. My experience is less than limited when it comes to that security feature. Have you had a good look under a powerful loupe? One imagines that it is still possible to carefully examine the surface through the blister pack. Unless the plate is thick enough, I imagine that there will be issues with the surface.

If you make yourself a little neodymium magnetic slide (or purchase one), you can easily check gold as well as silver. There is a slight chance of micro scratching the surface of course, which is a downside if you're checking coins or small minted bars with some numismatic value. Unfortunately however, copper responds in a similar manner to both gold and silver on the magnetic slide, indistinguishable to the inexperienced user. However, if it's brass that has been plated with gold or silver, it is blatantly obvious. Combined with a weight and density check it becomes a pretty powerful tool. I'll get round to filming a little demo at some point. Three basic tests are a must. 1) Diamagnetic properties. Easier to check on thin items like coins or small bars, and can be done either with a slide to assess speed, or with a small magnet to run across a larger item. 2) Density. This can very easily be checked for silver items with good assurance. Callipers for regular shaped items, or fine thread, deionised water, and a set of scales for irregular shaped items such as cast bars. It's also useful for gold although less reliable. But it does help to avoid the less sophisticated counterfeits, always bearing in mind that bigger gold items are worth more effort to the counterfeiters. 3) The mark one eyeball and a loupe. Having a good look under a loupe is invaluable. Plate can be identified where it has not adhered uniformly, or where subsequent minting of a plated platter has virtually pierced through to the base metal below. Some time ago, I legally purchased some plated fake coins (which were sold openly as plated commemoratives), and upon examination under the loupe, I could easily see that the plating looks weak around the rim where the 90 deg angle is struck to the face. The faintest discolouration shows in the internal corner, which amazingly, isn't visible to the naked eye. And number 4 is to confirm the stated weight. Thinner faked objects struggle to match weight and density accurately. One has to be sacrificed over the other. Check both. Combined with the sigma (which I don't possess), I imagine this to be a very effective way to keep the counterfeits out of your stack. The sigma is only one part of the checking process, the other checks should all pass as well. A disclaimer / reminder to new stackers: A density check with gold, is no guarantee that you haven't got a sophisticated fake on your hands. Gold's density is not alone on the periodic table, Tungsten is very close, and it is therefore easier to fake density with gold than it is with silver which is all out on it's own. The thicker and more expensive an item, the more chance that a sophisticated counterfeiter has produced a clever multiple fillet (I haven't actually seen any but it is theoretically possible) which can nearly (but not quite) match resistive and magnetic properties, as well as achieving correct density and weight. The use of multiple methods of verification cannot be stressed enough.

My view is that if the figures start showing that 'hyperinflation has been averted', and that 'central banks have saved the world', (), then the industrial reasons for Silver (like copper) will start to look promising. Apologies for the different type of graphs, but here is a graph of copper back to 2016 (in USD) vs Silver in ££s of the same timeframe. They are not too dissimilar. If the economic collapse through inflation is averted, I expect Copper will start to rise, and by extension, this will signal an increase in industrial demand for Silver again.

So data has come in with UK inflation lower than expected. Clearly the small jump in price in £'s is a forex artefact for now. But I wonder whether this will be seen by investors worldwide as an indication that leading (er cough cough) economies are likely to be reversing their high interest rate policies soon. High interest is a big fear. If that subsides I can see industrial confidence worldwide picking back up. I guess we'll know by lunchtime whether there will be much impact on the core price in USD. So far it has responded by falling.

Curious to see what happens after tomorrow morning's inflation figures. The US figures last week had quite an impact on the price in USD. One wonders whether the expectation is that the UK might show similar results. Perhaps such an expectation is already baked in? If so, a drop will be triggered instead... Or perhaps UK inflation will remain stubbornly high, and a small drop will be triggered on the back of that data anyway.

And when it comes to silver, it's easy to check the density and be pretty sure its the real deal. Nothing else pure has a similar density to silver, and so, it's much harder to counterfeit without going to serious complexity which isn't worth it for silver. It's certainly possible to make up a multiple fillet, which has identical density, and sort of weakly similar properties, but it would be far more expensive than the silver, hence they don't exist. Ultimately, coins make plating hard. Under a loupe, it's pretty easy to see the plating in the corners and the discolorations that occur there.

It's all well and good for them to say that it is up to the user "to confirm density separately", but it's not as simple as they then make out. It is simple if it is a flat sided object. But cast bars certainly do not have specifications that can be density checked easily. Simply weighing and measuring with callipers, is good enough for a nice rectangular bar, but it's not so easy with shapes which are non regular. Measuring the density of large bars is fraught with danger, even when measured using weight and size comparison. Tungsten happens to be very similar to gold in density, so a gold coated tungsten block, is approx the same size and weight / density. I'm not sure whether it's para/dia magnetic properties are significantly different such that an ametuer can check that with kitchen equipment. Unless you have seriously expensive gear I think it's easier to stick to smaller items which can't be so easily mimicked without the gold plate being too thin. Coins are easier in terms of checking for authenticity. IMHO.

4.4% up at the moment in the USA. 3.8% here in the UK. It all kicked off after the US inflation numbers came in at 13:30. Perhaps there's a feeling that the fed may be able to start reducing rates sooner than expected... Not so sure that the UK will be in a position to do such a thing for a while though.

Inflation lower than expected in US.

It appears that it was photographed such that the forgeries made it look like it had more silver in it than it actually does. If the auction house knew, then that is extremely dishonest. If I am correct, the forgeries are all of foreign state coins? I always find that to be suspicious. It is not a criminal offence to trade in foreign counterfeits. Hence why in the UK, most counterfeits openly listed are not UK coins. Call me paranoid, but it's not beyond the realm of possibility that they could have been sprinkled in to boost the hammer price... The other option is that they simply had no idea, and that they just quickly photographed them ready for auction. If it's the latter, I would expect them to offer you your money back. An honest auction house doesn't need this kind of attention. They don't need a call to weights and measures, and to the local newspaper, both of which I personally would do if they don't resolve the matter sensibly.

Are there ANY silver coins in there? A hint of plate doesn't count as a silver coin or "example". If they described the lot as including silver examples of coinage, then there must at least be two silver coins in it or the lot is not as described.

A couple of large dojis before todays US open. The market really isn't sure which way this is going to go. The £ will just follow along of course. I can see this stretching up towards 19.7 or turning south towards the mid 17's.

My latest view on where this will end up. hehe. Hard to draw with the mouse, but there's lots of options that involve time to build up some sort of triangle, with an entry in the low 23s looking quite likely. 21 remains a good possibility as well over the next 6 weeks, which is why I would sit it out until next month. There is always the possibility that a massive plunge is on the cards in the coming days, and a plunge is more likely than a massive rebound to new highs imo. Gold would have to really outperform if it was to drag silver up with it, and I don't see that happening yet.

I'd say 24.2 / 19.3 at a minimum required The weekly candle looks dreadful, and nothing is going to change that. But if the daily candle closes as a hammer, at or above 24.2 / 19.3, then there is a fair chance to change the outlook into a bounce and measured floor building. Otherwise look out below...

I'd leave it for a couple of weeks at least. It's exceedingly unlikely that there will be a sharp rebound above 20.5 in the very near term. It's far more likely that a continuation of the decline is on the cards. At best, a battle in the 18's might take place for a few weeks, but the potential for a further sharp decline into the mid 17's will be present through all of it. Unless a sustained and sharp rebound is initiated today or early next week, Silver is very unlikely to be making a push to new highs until at least June but more likely July. Some sort of lacklustre bounce is to be expected of course, but this will only set up shorting opportunities for a further decline to the low 17's. Perhaps if gold outperforms due to political or economic black swans, it might halt this malaise. But we're talking really unlikely there, so on balance, it's better just to sit this one out for now, and look for an entry in the 17's with less potential of loss should it decline even further.

I wouldn't be buying until it hits 18.75, or unless it rebounds sharply and breaks out above the recent high. Perhaps a low 17s is more likely. I think the chart i posted on the usd silver monitoring thread is more likely to play out in the short term than any sustained sharp rebound.

yeah, spot is more accurately determined by looking at the trade section...

In reply to the video above where he talks about gold, it's not really that big of a day in the recent scheme of things. The red high wave doji indicates indecision. Personally I don't think much will happen until gold tracks either gently down, or sideways, to meet the lower tramline. At that point, there will be a decision made as to whether the market will collapse or set off upwards to all time highs. latter half of May looks like contact will be made and the tramline tested. Pulling out a bit more, I expect that once the lower tramline is touched, if it breaks, gold will retreat back to the next tramline towards the second half of June as marked by my scrawl... Silver will likely play out a similar pattern but it has further to fall given it's closer to the top of it's recent rises. Silver has a bit more potential for a bigger drop imo. It's hard to see where the psychological support will be, but perhaps down in the 23 range to bounce off, or even all the way back down to the tramline marked around the 21/22 area if gold takes a drop in late June. Just my unqualified and baseless ramblings of course.

Looking at a well known UK dealers website today, I see that the premiums on spot to buy are about 17% plus 20 % vat. To sell to them, they are paying 5% on top of spot. I don't recall ever seeing sell prices above spot in silver. Perhaps I've missed that in the past, but I imagine there must be a bit of a shortage in the second hand market if they're prepared to pay above spot.

A blow off top is surely inbound soon. Surely? We'll see what this weekly candle brings tonight. It's been quite a number of weekly rises in a row, and pretty soon there will have to be a pullback. The covid run was about 9 weeks positive in a row if I remember correctly. This current situation is nowhere near as tense as the covid world ending drama, so I can't see it continuing for much longer but who knows. Maybe big money is getting scared of inflation and wants physical...

Anyone got some lovely 1980 silver coins? I'm guessing there weren't many made...

Just out of interest... What is the inflation adjusted all time high? I wonder if there's anyone still waiting to break even...

Looks like that smash up is underway... Are they playing for a stop run and then a big drop? That game always seems to happen in the early hours...

ASEs have been low on stock for quite some time. They seem to under produce these days. But other models are available, and Britannias are available on 2 week order for $31.29

Genuinely surprised this is still hovering about at this level. I expected a turn down and profit taking, or a sudden lunge through as a bunch of stop buys from the shorts got wiped out. Perhaps the manipulators will get to play it both ways in the early hours...