silversky

It's there in the link. Not sure why it won't work for you in Oz. It also says it's not available in my country if I open it in another window. But if I open it here on TSF it plays in this window...

What does any of that have to do with a video about man's 6000 year obsession with gold?

5.8% down swing in USD price. 5% in GBP This trading attack was carefully executed to take out the paper stops and limit orders just above Fridays close in a thin market while everyone was in bed. The repercussions are that the longs who were triggered in at the top while sleeping, are now being squeezed out. It's going to take a day or two to settle all those losses. Who knows how many paper longs were entered at the top... And who knows how much fuel there is for a stop cascade to take hold if the price drops much further. Few will be willing to commit to much additional risk right now... But longer term what are the implications? I have a suspicion that another down leg is on the cards. A range between $2000 and $2050 seems possible, followed by a descent to test the $1930s. If that fails we could be going all the way to the 17's... By the end of this week, if there isn't a sustained push back above Friday's close, it'll be Feb/March before a sustainable charge on new highs will be made, and it could even be late summer if the drop to the 17's occurs. It all depends on whether this bounces back this week or not. Lots of burnt toes right now, and I suspect that many will be nervous about dipping them back in too soon.

More importantly... what happens next? It looks like the US boys have decided that a top is in. Some speed picking up to the descent now.

It doesn't really matter who it was, it could have been George Soros or his son for all we know. It was a trading attack rather than anything related to the underlying commodity or economy. Period. All that can be seen is that the triple top presented a rare opportunity to trigger a short-stop cascade, and once triggered, the next dominoes are the limit buy orders strategically placed around the 2100 area in anticipation of a genuine break... The big guns then exit into those, and pocket the difference. A classic head fake executed in the thin market of Sunday night. Sunday night is the only time that this could happen, and a multi year triple top break occurring on a Sunday night is exceptionally rare. It's decades type of rare thing, and some big guns saw their opportunity and took it. Next step is the stops from all the limit buys who are now trapped long on some big losses right now. Many will have abandoned their positions in the gradual decline through the night, but for those holding on grimly, their long-stop losses are placed a little below the triple top break, and they're vulnerable to a sagging price... Most players are well aware of them, but they're somewhat more protected by genuine supply and demand issues now. The real market is open and so a few paper positions are not such a big deal.

It was a rare opportunistic smash by some very big guns. Smash it high enough in thin trading, and set fire to a massive pile of open short stops (there would also have been some limit buy orders for the break sitting there ready to join in as well). Once the short stops collapse, the fire causes a blast up which occurs in seconds, allowing the big buyers to sell far above them in a virtually unmatched market. It's very rare in massive liquid markets like gold, but Sunday trading incurs wider spreads, so its actually much thinner and less liquid than most imagine. Interesting to see these "experts" saying that they missed this possibility. There will now be less open contracts than there were three hours ago. The momentum boys are gone, and so are the short stops which would act as fuel for another rise. Direction will require new open interest, and we'll have to wait and see what the London boys make of it in a few hours time. I'm ambivalent now on gold, if I had an open paper long, I would probably be taking half of it off the table just in case.

For once the big trading smash event was primarily in Gold. Silver wasn't at a crucial triple top, so less stops to go hunting for.

In reality though that is not what happened. The open on a Sunday night is traditionally a quiet affair. Spreads are wider until the main market opens in Asia, leaving most traders to stay in bed... But when a triple top presents a possible $300 shorting entry point, there are going to be a lot of stop losses positioned just above. If enough ammo is used when the market is tight, the price can be lifted enough to set fire to that stop loss ammo. Once that happens, it's a case of auto selling with a decent profit. Both the USD and GBP charts are identical (rare) which indicates that there was no fx arbitrage game going on. The fire has gone out now, and the price has drifted back down. This indicates that there isn't a vast army of desperate buyers, at least not awake right now. The shorts who were brave enough to try to sell into this are finished for the night session. It was a blast and abandon mission, and one which has been very successful for some. What direction it will take from here is anyone's guess, Edit: At one point it was 3.75% up in half an hour or so. That's nominally half a trillion dollars Only possible when the market is tight and few are trading...

I think the stop hunters are quaffing something a little more expensive right now... Some of those $35 moves in a matter of seconds were automatic stop buys being cashed out as limit sells, all in the space of a second or two. Large amounts of money were made in mere seconds today. And those who were hoping to hold a short back down were cashed out for a loss. Let's see what Tokyo brings, now that the momentum game has calmed down.

The interesting thing is that it all started reasonably normally. For the first few minutes, moves were 4-5 £££s. But then it just kicked up and started reaching for the moon... I think a massive supply of stops from the paper shorts were placed just above, all in the hope that a drop back below the triple top would come to pass. And some big guns chose the quiet part of the trading day to go hunting for them... Some of the moves were really violent in just seconds. Very unlike such a large market... Zooming out the open disappears into tiny moves... Lets see what happens when the major markets open...

If it goes up... they'll honour the price..

ATH in £££'s blitzed through

OMG. There's $35 moves up and down in seconds....

Given the length of time since this was first reported, it would seem unlikely that the attack successfully reached its target, although not impossible. The lack of detail is at odds with recent reporting of similar incidents, which indicates somewhat that a response, or its timing, hasn't been finalised yet. Potentially there are other partners to poll before getting out in front of this, or possibly it's just a media story to gently crank the "merica bin attaked" ratchet. Ultimately, If the US is going to go large, they must consider the security of the Ike Carrier Group currently inside the Persian gulf. Whilst it's not in as much danger as some of the "hypersonics sink carriers" fanboys would have us believe, it would certainly be an unnecessary and pointless risk if major action was known to be about to be launched. If the Ike group were to be removed before things settle down... it would signal a very serious escalation was more likely than not. Currently everything is going according to plan. A major deterrence has been asserted over the Levantine arc, as well as over their masters in Tehran and Beijing. Unless the Americans are keeping secret a damaged destroyer, the Impact on gold is near zero now in my opinion.

Just to visualise my last post. The daily chart in USD is here. Whilst very bullish, a break above is what is required....

After a rise like this you certainly can... There are limits to moon shots, and there will be profit takers anticipating a smackdown of a couple of hundred dollars. I don't personally believe that it's likely, but it's a bet that some people will definitely be taking. No matter what, unless it sheds a significant amount between now and the close, the close will be a new ATH close. Previous intraday high was 2081.46 Previous daily ATH close was 2050.2 And look what happened off the back of that...

ATH in USD is actually 2081.46 mid price according to trading view. Still some way off that...

Looking at it, I thought that a better description would be bell shaped ends. But what do I know?

Ceasefire over, broken by Hamas refusal to release further hostages... South Gaza next in the sights... But the likely hood of spread to the rest of the region is now seen as low. Others don't have the stones for it basically. I don't think any of the PM rise now is related to mid east tensions. It's back to financial forces.

Weekly chart here. Bit of a fight going on after the US open, but back on the rise again after us miserable Brits took it down this morning... I think it'll close above the big Two Oh, posting a strong bullish candle and leading to a test of the May highs pretty shortly.

In a couple of hours time, the monthly gold chart is about to be painted with an all time high close. And the closes matter. It's only a short push to all time intraday highs, and if it breaks through, then there will be a big reach upwards over a long time frame. High inflation has been chipping away all around the world for a couple of years now, and the pressure to devalue all fiat currencies against PMs is real. Silver will be pulled up in tandem, and this is why I think 20% in short order is easily possible. Perhaps even upwards of 35% in a big lunge. The last big leg up in Silver was in March this year. It put on 30+% in USD and 25% in GBP. Those moves will likely be eclipsed when the next pop happens. Three big peaks in gold is a little ominous though, and a third failure to continue higher would signal a deep retracement. I'm 70/30 on the break upwards.

When this finally pops, it could easily put on 20% in USD in a matter of weeks. In GBP, that could be anywhere around the £23 handle very quickly.

5 min chart...

19.99 and knocking on the £20 door.

Looking more like £21.50!! or back to £17.50