silversky

I did consider whether a quick short at the close on Friday might be worth the risk, then I smacked myself and remembered that it rose in a bonfire of short covering for a reason. But it is not too risky now for the shorts to get in on the action. I reckon £1570 incoming.

Up down and all about is my call A bit of confusion and not much direction by the end of the day.

I imagine that this thread is going to be pretty busy later tonight. What does everyone expect? A gap up? Flat? Or a big correction once the markets are open and traders know that they can respond in real time to any developments if they need to? Personally I don't have much of a feeling on direction.

My view is that the rise is more about shorts liquidating their positions for fear of getting caught on the wrong side of something terrible at the weekend. The wave count still looks a little bearish to me, although if this consolidation turns into a bullish flagpole and rises significantly further today, I might revise that expectation. The shorts will be back next week when the market is open of course...

Can't see many people wanting to be short gold over the weekend. Just a feeling that there's going to be fewer people than normal inclined to take such a risk.

Anyone selling yet?

Are we expecting positive reactions to inflation numbers coming up shortly? Lower rates expectations?

Still waiting for the gap to be filled. Only the most powerful of impulses clear a gap with escape velocity. And this isn't powerful enough, hence why the gap will be filled before any sustained rise is likely. Next week, or even the week after, things will begin falling apart at the geopolitical level. I see the current calm (relative) being the time that the gap will be filled. Too many small specs are long. The big boys always like to fleece them first.

Think this will be up above 1550 within the next 24-48 hours. Too much mayhem potential still developing.

Yes. Don't know when though... But seriously, I kind of imagined it would fill the gap early on then mount a new assault upwards around the US open. Hasn't happened. I think the world is still digesting what exactly is going to happen. Literally anything could happen... Young women stripped naked, beaten unconscious or dead, and paraded around by savages to be spat on... 3 year old toddler crying for his mother while being taunted by the children of terrorists... a western MSM who seem keen to find justifications for these evil people... It's going to cause a siege mentality, and nothing is off the table militarily. Nothing. If they start killing those hostages, all hell will break loose.

I'll be surprised if crude doesn't put on a significant amount over the coming days. But perhaps Saudi Arabia can be persuaded to open the spigots a little wider to keep it from getting too racey.

Actually these days I can. I think made in Taiwan is pretty darn good. Whatever you're connecting on right now, likely had the most sophisticated part inside it made in Taiwan. I'm less and less confident of manufacturers like Boeing. They really seem to have dropped the ball lately, with the 787 batteries catching fire a few years ago, then the 737max being out of CofG and requiring a "secret autopilot" to control pitch, which ended up causing a number of fatal crashes which they tried to blame on pilot error, to finally the Dreamliner space craft failing to get to orbit on its supposed first human rated flight. Very luckily, NASA insisted that they carry out a full test flight first, so when it completely messed up, at least it didn't put the lives of a crew at risk. It required 80 serious modifications before another test launch, which is not exactly confidence inspiring. All these legacy corporations seem to have become money machines rather than centres of technical excellence. The Taiwanese by comparison, are chasing excellence and fair play to them.

I thought they were heroin shops myself. It all comes through from Iran to Diyarbakir in the east of Turkey (Nato base there) and then spreads all over Europe. Had a neighbour who ran a barber shop. Nice brand new Mercs outside that he and his pole dancer-esque wife owned. House broken into three times and the loft raided each time. Most curious. What could a simple barber possibly be keeping in his loft that was generating such interest? His was the only house in a relatively crime free neighbourhood experiencing such attention. I'll never know because they suddenly sold up and left one day.

Brits available at 3% above spot on chards. £1550. Personally I think there's a good chance that any purchased right now will be in the black three hours from now. But what the heck do I know?!! Any gap will likely be retraced at some point briefly, but a change of direction seems likely here for at least a few days or weeks. Not ramping Chards or selling any of my gold... just observing that this problem is going to be extended rather than short lived, and until it is resolved peacefully, it has major potential to change a lot of things for the worse. The international community is going to support Israel in pretty much any hardcore actions they choose to take in response. The militants know that they can't face them head on, so they intend to retreat back to a hostage game and hope to involve other players. That is why I think all parties (USA, Israel, and Hamas) are crediting Iran with involvement. The US would like a pivot, Israel has been unofficially bombing Iran sporadically for a while, and Hamas wants an expansion to have any chance of forcing a land deal on Israel. All of the above is a big change. A black swan moment. If the US gets back into the middle east game, it's going to unleash all manner of chaos. I guess I'll be staying up to see what happens tonight. And I expect a fair number of you will also be doing the same thing...

I have a feeling that all technical analysis of the PM's is out the window as of this weekend's terrible events. What do people think gold and Silver will open at this evening?

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Be careful what you wish for. Robespierre set about guillotining others in the reign of terror, before falling victim to it himself as the elites rotated in and out. Utter chaos. I seem to remember gold setting things straight in the end...

Interesting little drop and bounce when the Non farm payrolls and unemployment rate came out. I personally think that this is a 4th wave in a corrective elliotwave C wave. One more leg down to complete a 5th wave in the larger C wave correction. A week or two of subdued battle upwards to complete this 4th wave, before the USD price will target the previous low. The UK chart will end up wherever due to fx rates. Further out from here, a base will be built before attacking the downward trend line which is loosely forming a sloping inverted head and shoulders. Probable break upwards in the first quarter of next year. But who knows with Silver. The faked data has been coming out a little better than expected for a while now. It's a sign that things are not quite as doom and gloom as zerohedge likes to imagine. In reality of course, debt is impossibly out of control, and real inflation is far worse than the con job numbers put out by every global institution. Eventually it WILL come time to pay the piper. But for now, it appears to me as if they have the situation loosely under control. The train is still hurtling towards a broken track, but it's not going to come off on this bend.

That's the problem with Silver. It never makes much sense. Either it's behaving badly as a defence against inflation, or it's having one of it's spasmodic stellar rises for absolutely no apparent reason. It's not exactly a beacon of transparency, and the market is full of pumpers and dumpers with all sorts of exciting stories to boot. Sometimes it seemingly possesses industrial and economic value, performing well in a rising economy, and other times it simply doesn't. Sometimes it behaves as if it still has monetary properties, acting in tandem with gold as if it might still perform some function as a store of wealth, and other times it simply diverges. Most of the time it just spikes around irrationally, behaving like the captured plaything of traders. It seems to be something which traders occasionally find the time to knock about for a bit of fun, perhaps after finding time to sniff some expensive Bolivian marching powder off of certain appendages of ladies of the night. Maybe that last bit is just in my imagination , and maybe wolf of wallstreet doesn't really happen in real life...

From the top on Friday, to the current bottom today it's a full 10% drop in $$ That's absolutely savage, and I'm not even sure what the excuse event for the actual trigger was. It just happened suddenly and gained momentum. It currently looks like a falling knife to me. Pack up and wait a week or two would be my instinct if I were buying at the moment.

I have only just seen this PM. I didn't get a notification for it. Lots of notifications about replies and likes etc. But not for the PM and no symbol. I'll have to sort that out.

Sold pending payment.

One tube of 25 x BU 2016 Silver Britannia coins for sale. £565 delivered. These coins have been owned by me since brand new. They have not been played around with, and have been stored carefully and are in good condition. They will be posted in secure packaging using Special Delivery. Payment by bank transfer.

Yikes. That's a big rise and fall today. Not sure what triggered that but there must be something causing waves.