silversky

Copper miners.

I think I'm the only one here with that prediction, and I've still got six weeks left before getting proved wrong. I just feel that the huge triangle in gold is about to be broken, and once that goes, it's a whole new wave under inflationary pressure that will set off. Silver can put on or lose 15% in a week, so getting dragged up suddenly by big yella really isn't beyond the realms of possibility.

I certainly can't advise you on that. Too many balls up in the air. All I know is that a crash will come, no matter what they try to do. Everything is about cycles. Our whole lives are cycles, our civilisations go through generational cycles, and in the end there is always a collapse and rebirth. It is the human spirit and mood which drives everything. When people become obsessed with a particular boondoggle in late stage civilisation, energy is directed in a direction which ultimately pulls something else apart. The zero carbon goals are a perfect example. There is absolutely no valid science behind the zero carbon goals, yet we are gayly destroying our ability to heat, cloth and feed ourselves, all for the sake of a nonsensical pet project. When the time comes, we'll deserve natures wrath. Hubris is what causes chancellors and central bankers to believe that they've magically cured nature. But nature always has the last laugh. To be honest, I don't think many of them really do believe that they can tame the financial sea, they're just playing their own selfish part in the grand show. They pretty much all know that one day it will all come to an end, but in the meantime they get to look important and make bank for their offspring. The only advice I can give (pretty much worthless I know), is to view everything in cycles, and to try to see where a new cycle is beginning. Be alert to the end of an old cycle by looking to rough timescales from history. History doesn't repeat, but it certainly rhymes. Land prices are a prime example of that. Things are similar but never the same and generals often wrongly try to fight the last war. So in the next collapse, even though credit is off the scale, it may well not be credit which sets off a collapse, and it won't fall in the same way it did in 2007. No doubt significant work will be done to repeat the fixes from last time, but this time something else will be rotten away before it's come to everyone's attention. It's never the same because too many people remember the last time and plan accordingly for the last war. This includes ordinary citizens, who start to become risk averse to get ahead of the game.

You could be right. It's certainly very muddy waters on what the actual number is. All by design. The trick is that much of this inflation in borrowing costs is currently being smoothed by the fixed rate deals that most people have. The rises are only just getting started. But over the next two years, those deals will start to expire in ever larger numbers, raising up borrowing costs as a percentage of the whole nation's costs. It's going to take a bit of time to bite, but it all adds in to my plan to sell my house no later than 2024. A good proportion of those 3 and 5 year sweet deals, will be coming up for renegotiation around then. Currently, most homeowners are insulated from that, and will only be starting to feel heat on their energy bills in April. Two years from now is when the real trouble will kick in as energy and borrowing costs combine. Rent's will start to rise to cover buy to let mortgages even as prices roll over as forced sales start to take place. Currently though, housing is still a good bet despite the first hints of stormy skies. Prices tend to climb a wall of worry for a very long time before jumping out the window. In fact, large gains are generally made in the wall of worry stage, and I believe that we're in that stage right now. But no one should take financial advice from me, I'm just a Russian bot on the internet! Regarding raw materials, they're clearly in short supply across the board. Prices will have to rise to pay for the energy to produce them which is why I think everything real is going to do well this year. Just remember to leave before the party turns rowdy in 2024/5

Moneyweek have an article out today saying that inflation is actually 8% not 5.5% (when using the old way of measuring it with RPIX). Apparently, most people have fixed mortgages which means that until they come up for renewal, the inflation including home owners payments is lower. But if you use available interest rates, then you get to 8% inflation. Or something like that. Anyway, the point being made is that in the old way of measuring it, the number would be much higher than the newer ways of making it look mild. Personally I believe that anything real is due a big revalue this year. I still hold my prediction that Silver will exceed last year's high within this first quarter. Brave perhaps, but it's certainly possible once people come to realise that the ball is rolling and it's picking up pace. Inflation is most certainly NOT transitory, and energy bills come April are going to rise sharply. Most metals should do well this year, including steel. The gold dip yesterday was a play on the Russia / Ukraine anti-climax. But it wasn't really rising before because of the Russia hysteria so the dip is just a short lived excuse. It's already moving upwards again, even as images of trains carrying tanks leaving the border region are being broadcast. The real cause is inflation.

The question is, who was attempting to set off a run BEFORE the announcement? And who was keenly picking up paper moments before the announcement. The day traders would have been queuing up for this one which is why the sell off again after the initial spike up. But it has since continued to rise back to the spike in what is more likely an honest response. It is the knowledge prior where the cheating takes place. I don't doubt that most involved who went short then long and subsequently short again are now out of their trades. Stops both ways were snapped up for profit.

That's why people like buying it with cash, and also strangely why there are so many boating accidents.

The fly in that ointment is that it requires energy. In a total collapse, firms go bust left right and centre, and energy supplies start collapsing fast fast. No point generating it when no one can pay for it. When there is finally an almighty collapse, the very last thing that the majority of people will be doing is worrying about their internet bill just so that they can access their digital bank account debt. The cabal most likely will try to extend the ponzi scheme in that direction before the end though. A new fiat to rule them all might add a few short years to the scam if they're lucky. But slave incomes in the form of "universal basic income" will eventually have to be dished out. I see that people on receipt of benefits are already getting subsidised energy bills now and that's the start of the end. Eventually it'll become pointless to even go to work and at that point there's no society left for the elites to spend their ill gotten gains within. In the past they escaped abroad to do that, but globalism has poisoned that well. If you've been to Saudi you'll know that the main drag in Jeddah is filled with expensive car dealerships. Lambo and Ferrari joints. The elite need a functioning society within which to enjoy their riches and so they dish out enough to keep it functioning. But the drift is always towards concentration of wealth, and if they don't learn to stop sucking up everything (they can't learn that), then they'll end up with nothing as well when the luxury yacht companies go bust. Foreign trips to spend your ill gotten gains don't exist when you've captured the entire world. It always runs up against the buffers when the vast majority have nothing left but debt. Doesn't matter what the new currency becomes, unless ordinary free people have enough of it to use in fair exchange, it's unusable. Digital will not be a way to hold wealth through disaster, and the elite know it. No one is going to turn the computers back on, and expect people to remember what they owed them. Not after a proper collapse. That's gold's one and only real job, and unless they discover craters filled with it on the moon, I don't see it changing. Digital is just a way to entrap the masses and squeeze the very last few drops of labour out of them before the collapse. Humans are greedy and short sighted and this will happen again no matter how many regulations and restriction the managerial elites try to put in place. I doubt silver will ever make a return to use as currency, but who really knows. Both gold and silver have no master in the privacy of a private trade between two ordinary men. And silver is certainly of a small enough value not to be difficult to barter with. The elites holding gold may need to wait well into the restart before their gold becomes the premier ledger of wealth again.

The one small comfort is that we won't have to live for many decades more under the ever increasing income/wealth inequality that's currently being forced onto us by the fiat credit system. The paper spent fighting the holy ghost has almost certainly added so much dry tinder, that when the next crisis hits, it will take down the entire system. And it will take it down properly this time. It will be very painful for many, but there is simply no reforming such a leviathan paper mess and there will be no bailing it out next time. The cabal never end up owning all of whatever gets used as money in the next cycle. This is because they can't retain control of everything and escape with their lives. They too must lose some of their wealth if they want their children to continue a life of luxury in the background. The collapse and debt destruction opens up a huge clearing in the forest, allowing ordinary folk a couple of generations of actual opportunity before the canopy is once again completely covered over.

Looks like gold in USD has about $50-$100 to fall as it traces out an abc corrective wave of a longer term E wave. After the E is complete, the most likely direction is a new and huge wave upwards. E legs often stop short of course so the rebound may happen before that. I suspect the trigger for this decline was the "Ukraine crisis averted" understanding (even while the media were amplifying it falsely), but a collapse in gold was due anyway. I don't expect it will last long and I doubt it will trace it all the way to the tip of the triangle. Silver in GBP is simply being dragged along as a passenger on gold's chart. It cannot run counter to gold for very long and so it must follow it down until gold has neared a bottom. The two metals have been out of sync in their price waves for quite a while. I see this triangle as aligning them to a better degree. When they get back into sync will be when fireworks start to fly.

For those who think inflation is transitory, while Peter Doocy was being wrangled out of the room he asked Brandon, "do you think inflation is a political liability Mr President?". This is Brandon's response!!!

Crimea is already under Russian control so there's really not much to gain from invading Ukraine. Also, the Turks who are NATO members could close the Bosporus strait to the Russian Navy if tensions were to rise. Russia's red line has always been the encroachment of NATO onto their actual border. Western political forces have been pushing that for a long time. It's a bad idea and they should let it go.

Interesting analysis from The Duran has just come in. These guys tend to have excellent analysis on Russian issues in the alt media. This episode makes the assessment that it's basically all about a silly plan from Brandon's handlers to make him look like JFK in some sort of cuban missile crisis re-enactment. Instead he just looks like an idiot.

Saying such things might look good for the US domestic market, and it might cheer up the war hawks in the US media, but the rest of the world knows that the US is completely impotent when it comes to threatening dollar embargoes on Russia. Russia has already sorted out alternative means and no longer needs to comply with trading in US dollars or the swift system. If Russia wanted to take the Ukraine, there isn't a damn thing that the US or Europe could do about it. Western powers started all of this mess in Ukraine by funding the overthrow of the government. Russia is now in a position to stop further "progress" and will not allow this creep to continue. It would be wise of Western powers to recognise the mess they've got themselves into and simply back off and "take the L". A decade of pointless partial sanctions has hardened Russia into being virtually sanction proof now. Not only that, they're also holding the whip hand, controlling the heating supply for Europe. Years of decadent and whimsical fantasy about windmills and solar panels, means that Europe now has third world energy security. They quite literally couldn't face a winter at war with Russia without their people freezing. So in the end it's just a bit of bluster to make Brandon look tough while Blinken runs cap in hand to meet Lavrov and the UK defence secretary invites his counterpart for a meeting in London. They overcooked it and they know it.

Very sneaky but it probably won't help them. They think it will, but it won't unless inflation dies tomorrow. The board might think it looks good when they tell investors that their wage bill has been cleverly hedged out to two years, but on the ground, they'll run into all sorts of serious problems with qualified staff bailing out. If people elsewhere are negotiating 14% pay rises this year, 3+2 over two years isn't going to cut it. A few years ago, I had an employer suddenly offer an additional pay rise later in the same year. They found that their last deal over two years had left them very uncompetitive. They couldn't attract a single one of the urgently needed new staff for expansion and were losing staff instead. An emergency double digit deal was brought in with immediate effect plus a loyalty increment for existing staff. Lots of happy people after that.

This just in from Moneyweek. Inflation is clearly on the rise, and I don't for one second believe that it's just wage growth.

Quick poll. When do people think the spot price will exceed last year's high? First, second, third or fourth quarter? 5th option "not this year" My guess is that it's going to be before the end of this first quarter. I'm seeing inflation everywhere and I don't think anything (silver included) can continue for much longer without being affected.

That's a nice idea but better be quick, the price of new cars is rising too! Price of scrap cars is right up again as well. You can get £350 for an old banger, and that's with them picking it up!

The market knows that the covid narrative is finished. With inflation persistent, rather than "transitory", real things are demanding more paper. I expect last years high to be beaten this quarter.

.

Wait for a spike down. If you look at gold, it's tracing out an a b c corrective wave down from the high back in November. We are in wave c which is often the same length as wave a. It may therefore trace out the same length of down move which would bring it down to the 1300 area on a spike low. Silver will copy direction in my opinion. Once gold hits that 1300 area low I expect a sharp rebound which will be felt in silver shortly thereafter. That would be the time to lock in some silver because of a good chance in gold's change of direction. Rising interest rates might put a crimp on that plan of course but it's hard to see them ever raising them to anything like a real rate of interest above inflation which is what matters.

I'm not so sure that the old argument that 'rate rises are bad for PM's because investors can find a better yield on Bonds' is valid anymore. Higher rates because central banks have printed and lent their nations into an inflationary nightmare, might not find many investors still seeking a paltry yield over safety... Gold is of course the ultimate bond. Natures bond. It has zero risk of contagion, no expiry date, but no yield. In a world where western nations are well over 100% debt/gdp ratios, who really wants to lend their life's savings to a government, who might suddenly default. It's no longer a crazy idea that a "stable" western nation could default within a few months. In fact it's almost certain that default will have to happen at some point. If governments dare to chase inflation, their debt repayments will exceed what their taxpayers can be fleeced. So in the meantime, it's the man with no assets who's being fleeced as his salary goes backwards. It's an untenable situation and eventually it'll have to give. Probably another 3-4 years of cope left in the system before an everything meltdown. Real interest rates are negative, and they have to remain that way if profligate western governments are to survive. There is just no way that they can be raised by the required amount to put a lid on inflation, and everyone knows it.

Turnaround Tuesday? Looks like the slump is done to me. At least in the short term. Thoughts on spot xmas day?

Despite the inflation, there isn't going to be a crash any time soon. And in this clown world (where the media see it as their duty to protect the Brandon administration), it's all going to be sold to the masses as the market finally booming again! It'll be, "a good thing bro!" First they laugh, then they deny, and then they tell you it's a good thing. For the next few years, everything is going to continue going up. Breath-taking levels of finance are going to be injected and spent in all sorts of boondoggles to keep things chugging along. The 6uild 6ack 6etter program will juice the system beyond all reality and it'll be party time for all those with real assets. But it'll all come a cropper in the mid-decade. Those who're salivating now over "more juice", are already planning how to leave all the hot potatoes for the little people when the time comes. Until the inevitable arrives, betting against them is like betting against the tide. It's better to swim with the flow with a branch in sight a couple of years away. Painful to watch and be gaslighted, but there's absolutely nothing that any of us can do to stop it. Nothing. Half the battle is recognising the situation and ignoring the lies. The other half is to remember in 3-4 years time, that you recognised it was on a collision course, and be disciplined enough to sell everything just as people are telling you that you should be all in. It's precisely then and not before, that the rug gets pulled.

The government of the day always tries to prop up the housing market. And they always fail. It doesn't matter if it's left or right politically, they're both committed to private property rights and the ability of banks to create credit. Therefore, an exuberance always grows followed by a crash. Between 2007 and 2011, in real terms, houses lost 25% of their value. That 25% is the portion that most people typically own, with the rest being owned by a bank. The theory goes that there's a roughly 18 year cycle peak to peak (min max 17-21) which follows through in most developed western nations. This means that a new peak should be achieved somewhere around 2024-2028, followed by approximately 4 years of correcting and losses. This is the reason for my note to self about being out by 2024. I'd rather miss out on the last couple of years of frenzied rises (and not be susceptible to believing that this time it's different) than be sitting on a 25% loss four years later. It's always best to leave a bit for the next guy rather than trying to time a top too closely. The demographics issue will really add fuel to this cycles' downturn. That's the reason why I think that the crash will be bigger than 2007-2011 or the previous one in the 90's (I remember interest running about 15%). Next time, there will be a huge oversupply, as grand old properties which have been locked out of the market for the last half century start to flood the market. Personally I think gold and silver are going to do well. But property is now in the second half of it's cycle and I think it will therefore outperform gold and silver over the next couple of years. Who knows, I could be hideously wrong.