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m3rlin

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  1. Haha
    m3rlin reacted to GoldDiggerDave in Gold Monitoring Thread £ GBP only   
    Time to upset the gold stackers...........🤣   
  2. Like
    m3rlin reacted to HonestMoneyGoldSilver in Silver Monitoring Thread £ (GBP) only.   
    TL:DR: The ratio of gold:silver in earth's crust is between 15 and 20:1 (intrinsic value). Divergences from this ratio are (derivative financial) market values. Studying the difference between the two can yield many insights
    Gold and silver are money (monetary metals, gold standard, sterling standard, etc). If we want to value money fairly then the gold:silver ratio tells us which one is overvalued or undervalued relative to their naturally occurring abundance
    While it's true that gold and silver are different elements with different applications, gold and silver deposits usually occur together (electrum) with silver usually being considered a by-product of gold mining or vice-versa depending on the geology. It's uncommon to find either gold or silver in isolation thus the two are linked in terms of production and share a lot of the same supply chains and logistics. 
    You are correct that nobody agrees what the g:s "should be" but we know what it is in terms of the planet
    If we look back over history many of the most powerful rulers have attempted to fix the ratio. The Egyptians had it 1:1. The Romans had it 12:1. The Revolutionary Americans had it 15:1. The divergence in the ratio became a thing after the end of the British Sterling standard and the end of the American gold standard. When everything went to paper/derivatives and there were abrupt changes in regulation, the ratio varied wildly. (Intrinsic vs Market Value)
    Intrinsic Value vs. Market Value
    Intrinsic value suggests that an asset's value is inherently based on its natural characteristics and scarcity. For gold and silver this would imply their value should align with their natural abundance ratio. However, market value is determined by supply and demand dynamics, influenced by various factors such as industrial use, investor sentiment and economic policies.
    Industrial demand, coupled with speculative trading, can cause significant fluctuations in silver's market price, often diverging from its intrinsic value
    If we are being hard liners like the governments of yesteryear, we should set the ratio somewhere in the 15 to 20:1 range. As many analysts have pointed out lately, that ratio might come back but there are two ways it can happen - either gold plummets or silver appreciates. Most see gold plummeting as being both unlikely and undesirable, therefore we have to adjust our expectations of what the ratio "should be". If we use simple measures an acceptable modern ratio might be in the 35 or 50-1 range.
    We could also explain a higher ratio by showing that silver is slightly more difficult thus expensive to mine and refine than gold - gold being a wonderfully chemically stable element that refuses to be corroded, oxidised or tarnished. Gold is denser and more malleable than silver. Silver is also a wonder element with unique properties and these properties are why gold and silver are important, it just so happens the properties of silver make it more volatile both in the physical and financial world. 
    The ratio is important because it is a measure of fair value, it's like asking why do people care to measure gold/GBP or GBP/USD? They are measures of fair/relative value, intrinsic value vs market value. For instance the GBP/USD hit a record low under Liz Truss, did that make the intrinsic value of houses in England go down or was it just a temporal fluctuation that had little true explanatory power in the physical world?
    Most "true money" advocates like stackers favour intrinsic value > market value as the properties of one are set by the laws of physics while the properties of the other are set by the laws of man. Natural law tends to be a better and more independent arbiter of truth and fairness than human law. 
  3. Like
    m3rlin reacted to katyc in Silver Monitoring Thread £ (GBP) only.   
    Sov vs silver kilo bought appx 2 years ago (I got more heavily in to PMs Jul 22 which by pure luck as it was a nice dip); are giving appx £78 profit on a sov vs £160 profit on a kg.
    But, of course a kg will have meant a higher initial outlay of around £200/£250 - but that gives nearly double the profit today (my numbers in my example are very rough), point is, it's swings and roundabouts (also TSF members can fair better by avoiding main dealer premiums and VAT of course). Let's not forget silver could crash tomorrow and that kg loses £100. But we simply don't sell then; we wait. Both metals are great as long as we ensure to sell when it's profitable.
    I could compare to many times where gold wins. Gold has won the most - by far - yes, but whether gold did better over the last 20/30/40 years doesn't mean it'll do better over the next decade. I'm not saying either will win. Both will be amazing because the economy is at a point of no return.
    Also, both metals are allies, not enemies.
    Diversity is good with any investing. I like tangible assets, including property, as it brings in (almost passive) income. I like ISAs (cash and stock ISAs) because the compound effect will be life changing eventually.
    I like both gold and silver very much and I think everyone is entitlted to their opinion and  jokey jibes at silver is funny. But I don't think anyone should be ridiculed for investing in silver - especially on a website called The Silver Forum! Let's not forget silver has been manipulated (proven my millions in fines regularly to major banks), so that has masked it's value - which means only one thing - opportunity for the stackers.
    The need, along with the shortage for silver, will eventually cause a wild difference between paper silver vs. physical prices. It's barely being mined (because of the price, it's not worth the effort to the miners). It means one thing: shortage. That guarantees moon whenever that may be. Just look at cocao and wheat as random examples how wildy things change during a shortage.
    Silver will explode and the last few decades of the comedy show will end. The rate of China and India purchases just for solar alone is exploding as we speak (has for last few years). There's a huge shortage vs what's required. There are dozens more reasons, but @HonestMoneyGoldSilver's link a few pages back is a really good analysis.
  4. Like
    m3rlin reacted to Charliemouse in Silver Monitoring Thread £ (GBP) only.   
    Honest question from someone that hasn't been doing this very long.
    What is the point of the gold/silver ratio?  Other than a fun derivative stat that people talk about (a lot), or a way to measure your own holdings, does it actually matter?
    I mean they are two separately traded commodities.  They have completely different supply and demand chains.  So why does their ratio matter?  I guess historically people would trade between them as prices fluctuated, but these days there are hundreds of thousands of things people (institutions) could just as easily move money between.  And literally no one agrees on what it 'should' be.
    So why measure it?
  5. Like
    m3rlin reacted to Belmont in 1957 full sovereign   
    1957 full sovereign
    £452 +post


  6. Like
    m3rlin reacted to Mas in 1oz Gold Brits @ Spot + Postage   
    All in mint condition and always been kept in capsules.
     
     
     
  7. Like
    m3rlin reacted to SilverDrum in 2005 Sovereign   
    2005 Sovereign £460 inc Special Delivery

  8. Like
    m3rlin reacted to johnthebeard in 1oz Silver Brits and Noah's Arks **Reduced**   
    Hi all,
    1oz silver Brits. 18 available in total. Various dates. All sold.
     
     
    Sealed tube of 2023 Noah's Ark coins (20 coins). £510 plus post
     
    Bank transfer please. Please PM if interested.
    All the best and thanks for looking.
     




  9. Like
    m3rlin reacted to theman73 in Silver Monitoring Thread £ (GBP) only.   
    Yes, I just come back from Tenerife and in August I will go to Grand Canaria to celebrate 25 years togheter with my wife, I choice a 5* hotel (first time in my life) for this special event, in the meantime I'm looking to buy another S class (old not new) as the present S class is geting tired. (I'm not bragging, I just answer the question)
    There is money to be made in silver (not big money) but is involving a lot of work, simply buying and looking at the spot price won't do it.
  10. Like
    m3rlin reacted to Gruff in Silver Monitoring Thread £ (GBP) only.   
    I mentioned this the other day to Roy's comment. 

    I had a load of silver with BullionVault. I sold it all last year to pay the deposit on the house. It has appreciated by about 55% in the 8-9ish years I held it. Was stoked with the increase as it's afforded us the house we're in. Missus had similar invested, but more gold than silver and did equally as well.
    Enables us to be able to have a decent house with a mortgage that is achievable and not over stretching us. 
  11. Like
    m3rlin reacted to FriedrichVonHayek in Silver Monitoring Thread £ (GBP) only.   
    The only way to make any profit off Silver in the UK is to buy scrap, though it is very time consuming trawling through eBay and going to auctions.
    Or you can just use Bullionvault.
    For me buying Silver coins in the UK is pointless due to premiums and VAT.
    There was a time when you could buy it from Europe and flip it on eBay but those days are long gone.
  12. Like
    m3rlin reacted to GoldDiggerDave in Silver Monitoring Thread £ (GBP) only.   
    Guys tell me about your silver success stories.   Has it bought you a new car this year or paid for a family holiday?    Is your silver investment this year  going to pay off debt  or something simple like it's going to pay for the Parks monthly payment Christmas hamper this year?  
    I honestly like to hear about other peoples success and more importantly how they achieve it, as of yet I have not come up with a system to successfully  make a meaningful profit from  silver myself.  
     
     
     
  13. Haha
    m3rlin reacted to Chronos in Silver Monitoring Thread £ (GBP) only.   
    We are not. That is a lie.
    Mum, dad, come here to see what this guy is writing ...
  14. Like
    m3rlin reacted to HonestMoneyGoldSilver in Silver Monitoring Thread £ (GBP) only.   
    We shouldn't count our money while we're still sitting at the table, there'll be plenty of time for counting, when the dealing's done
    True what you said. I've always promoted buying silver in responsible and affordable quantities along with gold to keep your gold/silver ratio at a level that supports your objectives and risk tolerance. I've also said many times you can't call gold an investment while stating silver is not an investment when their prices are so heavily correlated. Plenty of room for both gold and silver, they are complimentary and correlated assets 
    I remember somebody said not too long ago you'd struggle to sell 2024 KCIIIs at £26 😁
  15. Like
    m3rlin reacted to James32 in Silver Monitoring Thread £ (GBP) only.   
    Over the past 8 years ( my own opinion but what I've always seen) on average there's a £4 premium on a 1oz silver Britannia ( secondary market,, no vat) so hypothetically a 1oz Britannia should now be commanding £28+
    In the real world there will be a lag, people scared of the quick rise, so in reality the seller price will trend at £26/£26.50 in the short term until supply dries up ( and it will dry up at those prices) 
    In a couple of weeks ( assuming silver spot is £24+) the buy price will be £28ish and become the new normal.
    Obviously bars and collectables will have their own price points.
  16. Like
    m3rlin reacted to GoldDiggerDave in Silver Monitoring Thread £ (GBP) only.   
    I've seen considerable numbers of orders for silver and you would be amazed it's all in 1's and 2's and they pay £3-6 per delivery and 50p for a capsule.   
    It's just another  tax on the poor.  
  17. Like
    m3rlin reacted to HonestMoneyGoldSilver in Silver Monitoring Thread £ (GBP) only.   
    I have explained it at least once in the GMT. I practically wrote a book!
    #SilverSqueeze: Physical Silver Shortage vs. Paper Silver (bullionstar.com)
    Shadow Stats Adjustment – Silver
    Adjusting historical US dollar silver prices by the ShadowStats Alternate CPI  is equally mind blowing. Using the same ShadowStats Alternate CPI (1980 Base) data series to  inflation-adjust silver, the real all time high in the silver price is an incredible US$ 966.77, recorded during the January 1980 high. Yes folks, that’s nearly US$ 1000.
    This real inflation-adjusted all time high is 3800% above the current US dollar silver price.

     
  18. Like
    m3rlin reacted to HonestMoneyGoldSilver in Silver Monitoring Thread £ (GBP) only.   
    I'm having issues trying to post so I'll keep it brief, maybe 😂
    Silver is not only being hoarded and stacked like gold. Silver is being consumed in large quantities. According to the Chinese, the price needs to be a minimum of $100/oz to make recovering the consumed silver economically viable. For China a boom in silver is considered a positive outcome whereas in the west a boom in either gold or silver is not looked upon favourably by the "pet rock" crew at the central banks and TradFi behemoths.
    As @sixgun said there are silver deficits. What the magnitude of those deficits are and the balance between east and west, it's hard to say. I like the really boring nerd guy at CPM whose videos get 0 likes when I post them. He's been doing this for 40 years and called bullshit a few years ago when everybody was saying the vaults are empty, the COMEX has no more silver, etc. He was right then. He is now warming to the idea of silver shortages, or perhaps more accurately, a shortage of 999 good delivery silver that's available today. There is no shortage of silver but there is a shortage of the type of silver that people want within the timeframe they want it. The imbalance this year between supply and demand is about 40% of the total production in 2023, that can't be ignored especially when deficits have been compounding in recent years

    The fundamentals on silver are solid. In the grand scheme of things $31/£25 is nothing, we're still £5 short of the highs from 2011. There's been a tiny bit of expansionary monetary policy and inflation since 2011. You could pick a figure between £30 and £100 for the true inflation-adjusted price since 2011 and I would probably believe you. According to shadow stats the inflation-adjusted price in 2011 was $67.50 and today even with the boom it's still trading at less than half that.
     

     
    You can use different figures and get an inflation-adjusted ATH of $189
    Anyway, you're totally right, silver is more of an industrial metal than a monetary metal but silver is unique in straddling both of those markets. A lot is talked about the catalysts for the recent price moves in metals. I mentioned one a few months ago that doesn't get a lot of headlines. So one of the main reasons metal prices are so easily manipulated is because the miners and refiners are complicit. They agree to sell their silver in advance in exchange for money now, often selling their finished product at a fraction of spot. Famously some hedge funds and investors have secured options on silver well below $10/oz, which is staggering when you think about it, right? 
    So the miners, producers and refiners have had enough of selling their product below market value. Several started to go "naked long" a while ago, refusing to play the game of options and derivatives. Some people might remember the hilariously witty remark I made about finding excuses to keep using that phrase - naked long. I wanna go naked long, don't we all, eh? The people mining and refining the silver control the market if they are brave enough to take the bull by the horns. It seems like a no-brainer to people like us to go naked long on silver but with silver being volatile and the world steeped in uncertainty, doing so is not without risks. I wouldn't be surprised to hear that one of the factors that led to the west losing control of the metal prices was the major producers refusing to dance to their tune. Why not go naked long if China is paying a hefty premium on silver? It seems like a better idea to flog silver to China for $25-30 rather than sell to a Wall Street suit for well below spot
    Sorry mate, I was always going to go on an extended rant. I'm done now that I've read the latest from bullionstar. Wow, they've been reading the GMT and SMT, stealing all our best ideas, and consolidated them in one article. This is one of the best comprehensive and free analyses of silver I've come across in a while:
    Why a Powerful Silver Bull Market May Be Ahead (bullionstar.com) (written 20th April 2024)
  19. Like
    m3rlin reacted to Charliemouse in Silver Monitoring Thread £ (GBP) only.   
    I chose 1st July as the middle of the year.  The average price of gold was $1,158.86 and silver was $15.63, per troy ounce.
    Gold: $2414.40 = 108% gain
    Silver: $31.47 = 101% gain
     
  20. Like
    m3rlin reacted to GoldDiggerDave in Silver Monitoring Thread £ (GBP) only.   
    @HerefordBullyun you poked me.........
     
    How much silver do you really need to hold for it to have any real world meaningful gains?   in short you need silver to double in price to come close to breaking even when you factor in dealer premiums, vat, delivery and the 50p capsule......And the wasted day off waiting  for the 3oz of silver to turn up.....Oh and that thing called inflation   £20 in 2012 is not even worth £10 in 2024.    
     
     
  21. Like
    m3rlin reacted to katyc in 5g + 1g Gold Hologram Bars - Now with free SD   
    If you look up hologram or kinebars, you'll see the premiums are high for this brand (note that some websites are abroad so you'd need to add taxes and high shipping costs from many retailers also).
  22. Like
    m3rlin reacted to katyc in 5g + 1g Gold Hologram Bars - Now with free SD   
    At Tavex, you can get their own branded 1g bar plus a 5g valcambi for £411 + post
    Here you can get (also brand new) 1 g + 5g hologram bars which come with very high premiums for £410 + post
    The mind boggles!
    2 sets left
    Withdrawing at 10pm  
     
  23. Like
    m3rlin reacted to 9x883 in withdrawn   
    Postage: RMSD by 1pm
    Payment: Bank Transfer. No Returns. 
     
     
     
  24. Haha
    m3rlin reacted to Chronos in Gold Monitoring Thread £ GBP only   
    You should never hit yourself.
    Let me slap you.
  25. Haha
    m3rlin got a reaction from HonestMoneyGoldSilver in Gold Monitoring Thread £ GBP only   
    haven't seen the post as i did skip to the last page. article was funny in a way because i closed my copper position at the end of April and now i want to slap myself. lol
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