Bratnia

Banking crisis? If you're a small or mid-sized bank with exposure to commercial real estate then you're bread getting closer to the grill. The small banks are technically insolvent without the BTFP (Bank Term Funding Program). If uncle Feddy and auntie Treasury decide not to give any Christmas presents this year then things could get really interesting
 

 
The largest outflows from US banks since 9/11 - the money has been dropped in gold, stocks and crypto:
 

 
Rates at 5.25-5.5% has the same effect as uncle Feddy giving his nephew a haircut at the kitchen table. Results will vary depending on hairstyle. If the nephew was smart enough to shave their head (hedge effectively) then uncle Feddy can't mess up their look. If the nephew has long, flowing multi-coloured locks and practices identity politics, like SVB, then uncle Feddy is going to make sure they have a bad year
 

 
This doesn't just apply to the US or to commercial banks. It applies equally to the UK/EU and to the Bank of England. They have a similar warehouse of bonds whose open market value declines the higher rates become. It's fine for the BoE as George Osborne agreed at the time (this mess started in 2008/9) that the taxpayer would pick up the bill if the BoE made losses when selling bonds. So the BoE has been selling bonds and we have been picking up the tab. The BoE and the US banks could and should hold their bonds to maturity to minimise their losses. A commercial bank may come under pressure from shareholders or lenders but the BoE has no such concerns:
Taxpayers brace for £100bn money-printing bill – as George Osborne says it’s ‘not my responsibility’ (msn.com)
We've been in a banking crisis since the central banks hiked rates and the central planners have been doing their best to paper over the cracks. It's not all bad when rates are high, some other important market participants will benefit including larger banks who aren't exposed to commercial real estate, but also pensioners on defined contributions:
Interest rates and pensions: good news and bad (ft.com)
Jamie Dimon claims we need to hike rates potentially as high as 8% to properly tame inflation.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-68769561
So, the Fed and BoE are between a rock and a hard place. If they don't cut then the banking system is at risk, a number of smaller banks will fail and any mid or large bank exposed to commercial debt or who didn't effectively hedge, is also at risk of going under. If a few small and a couple of larger banks go under that might cause a cascading domino effect like in 2008 but this is very unlikely. More likely JPM and friends will get a blank cheque, regulatory waivers and buy everything at fire sale prices to further entrench their monopolies. Higher rates also make government borrowing eye wateringly expensive relative to the recent past.
On the other hand if the Fed and BoE cut prematurely then inflation is going to roar back and eat everything alive, which ultimately will cause a severe bout of stagflation and hollow out the economy. 
ECB’s Kazimir: Premature Rate Cut Worse Than Holding Too Long - Bloomberg
Cutting interest rates too soon would be much worse than leaving them where they are for too long, according to European Central Bank Governing Council member Peter Kazimir
Bank of England policymaker warns against cutting rates too soon (ft.com)

“After several years of above-target inflation rates and given the threat of persistent inflation dynamics becoming embedded in expectations, in my view there are greater risks associated with easing too early should inflation persist rather than easing too late should inflation abate,” Pill said.
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Choose your poison. My choice is gold and silver. Oh and that's not to mention the trillion dollar Japanese carry trades (borrowing Yen at 0.1% interest to purchase USD and Treasuries at much higher rates, then purposefully destroying the Yen to make the subsequent Yen repayments lesser, profiting from the difference)

 
Which is a similar strategy to the "melt up" being orchestrated by our central authorities. Stocks are going to have one more blow-off top then crash, folks are piling in setting new ATHs while the smart money (the CEOs and insiders along with the richest men in the world) are selling up and running for the hills
The last time stocks were this concentrated was in the early 1930s .... hmm, what happened next? 

 
It's not that we're stupid either it's that we are corrupt. If you wonder why such things are allowed to transpire when we're aware of the potential consequences, well, it's a feature, not a bug. The bugs are what you will soon be eating. Stack gold, silver and be self-sufficient (farmland, clean water source, independent energy, guns, medical supplies, toilet roll, etc):
 

 

Still the same amount of gold in pre/post 2013, pre 2013 coins being heavier, and getting from 91.7% to 99.99% = much nasty chemicals and obnoxious vapours, whereas 2013 onward is just melt-reform between (LBMA) bars - coins - bars.

People deposit (lend) money to banks typically for low interest rates and where the borrower sets the terms and conditions. Banks then play heads they win tails the taxpayer bails them out game-play. In good times heads comes up more often.

Still the same amount of gold in pre/post 2013, pre 2013 coins being heavier, and getting from 91.7% to 99.99% = much nasty chemicals and obnoxious vapours, whereas 2013 onward is just melt-reform between (LBMA) bars - coins - bars.

People deposit (lend) money to banks typically for low interest rates and where the borrower sets the terms and conditions. Banks then play heads they win tails the taxpayer bails them out game-play. In good times heads comes up more often.

Quote from the CBS news article:
"The lender is the first FDIC-insured institution to fail in the U.S. in 2024. The last bank failure  — Citizens Bank, based in Sac City, Iowa — was in November 2023.
In a strong economy, an average of only four or five banks close each year."

Still the same amount of gold in pre/post 2013, pre 2013 coins being heavier, and getting from 91.7% to 99.99% = much nasty chemicals and obnoxious vapours, whereas 2013 onward is just melt-reform between (LBMA) bars - coins - bars.

Still the same amount of gold in pre/post 2013, pre 2013 coins being heavier, and getting from 91.7% to 99.99% = much nasty chemicals and obnoxious vapours, whereas 2013 onward is just melt-reform between (LBMA) bars - coins - bars.

Potentially the same applies to Sovs if they are destined for the pot. It’s just reality of life. Same dynamics apply with 0.5 and .925 silver vs 9999

It doesn't help:
 

9999 fine gold doesn't incur refining costs if ending up with LBMA

Buy British. and its nice to add your own personal painting/spray touch.

This is a public forum so I cannot go into much more depth.
They can create whatever rules/regulations/mandates they choose - that would only apply to those who volunteer (or are tricked to volunteer) and act as if they are under their juristiction.
We are all innocent until proven guilty by a jury of our peers - this hasn't changed, despite the mafia tactics of liars and bullies hiding behind sham corporations.

The US treasury bought 8000 tonnes of gold in 1933. Nowadays that lent to the Fed at a $42.222 rate, so at a market price of $2111 the Fed has 50x leverage, that rises if the dollar falls against gold (gold price rises). In turn the Fed can use that 50x leverage to buy (or sell) 123x leveraged paper gold (at recent levels) ... that can be used to direct the price of gold into alignment with the dollar a.k.a dollar aligned to the price of gold. US debt expansion when drawn using log scale Y axis, as you should for longer time periods, is more a straight line, many charts however are drawn using linear scale Y axis, so US debt expansion is often (falsely) claimed to be a unsustainable exponential - whereas it is, the dollar will over time continue to decline relative to the price of gold as the US target a 2% inflation rate (devaluation of dollars). All of that secures the dollar, that in turn others use as a international trade settlement currency instead of gold. Based on a foundation of retaining a large amount of physical gold, but where there are many claims to each ounce of gold. If you can't physically touch the gold your 'own' then any claim is potentially in the same queue as 120+ others. Gold makes for a good alternative to bonds/cash deposits (paper money), a 67/33 stock/gold can broadly compare to all-stock but with less volatility (will rise less during good stock times, fall less during stock bad times).
At the end of the day, it is those holding physical gold that get to determine how the 120 claims upon each ounce may be settled. Even funds claiming to be backed by physical gold could see that gold vanish under a gold-rush condition.

The US treasury bought 8000 tonnes of gold in 1933. Nowadays that lent to the Fed at a $42.222 rate, so at a market price of $2111 the Fed has 50x leverage, that rises if the dollar falls against gold (gold price rises). In turn the Fed can use that 50x leverage to buy (or sell) 123x leveraged paper gold (at recent levels) ... that can be used to direct the price of gold into alignment with the dollar a.k.a dollar aligned to the price of gold. US debt expansion when drawn using log scale Y axis, as you should for longer time periods, is more a straight line, many charts however are drawn using linear scale Y axis, so US debt expansion is often (falsely) claimed to be a unsustainable exponential - whereas it is, the dollar will over time continue to decline relative to the price of gold as the US target a 2% inflation rate (devaluation of dollars). All of that secures the dollar, that in turn others use as a international trade settlement currency instead of gold. Based on a foundation of retaining a large amount of physical gold, but where there are many claims to each ounce of gold. If you can't physically touch the gold your 'own' then any claim is potentially in the same queue as 120+ others. Gold makes for a good alternative to bonds/cash deposits (paper money), a 67/33 stock/gold can broadly compare to all-stock but with less volatility (will rise less during good stock times, fall less during stock bad times).
At the end of the day, it is those holding physical gold that get to determine how the 120 claims upon each ounce may be settled. Even funds claiming to be backed by physical gold could see that gold vanish under a gold-rush condition.

Whilst a year of stock and gold both down do periodically occur, there's the prospect that either stock or gold will by up in a year time, where those gains offset the loss in the other asset (and typically more). 50/50 and in a years time rebalance ... and likely you'll end up holding either more ounces of gold, or more stock shares (lower average price per share). So yes. Supplemented with averaging in and out over many years and it all tends to average out well - better than having stayed in cash.

Whilst a year of stock and gold both down do periodically occur, there's the prospect that either stock or gold will by up in a year time, where those gains offset the loss in the other asset (and typically more). 50/50 and in a years time rebalance ... and likely you'll end up holding either more ounces of gold, or more stock shares (lower average price per share). So yes. Supplemented with averaging in and out over many years and it all tends to average out well - better than having stayed in cash.

The US treasury bought 8000 tonnes of gold in 1933. Nowadays that lent to the Fed at a $42.222 rate, so at a market price of $2111 the Fed has 50x leverage, that rises if the dollar falls against gold (gold price rises). In turn the Fed can use that 50x leverage to buy (or sell) 123x leveraged paper gold (at recent levels) ... that can be used to direct the price of gold into alignment with the dollar a.k.a dollar aligned to the price of gold. US debt expansion when drawn using log scale Y axis, as you should for longer time periods, is more a straight line, many charts however are drawn using linear scale Y axis, so US debt expansion is often (falsely) claimed to be a unsustainable exponential - whereas it is, the dollar will over time continue to decline relative to the price of gold as the US target a 2% inflation rate (devaluation of dollars). All of that secures the dollar, that in turn others use as a international trade settlement currency instead of gold. Based on a foundation of retaining a large amount of physical gold, but where there are many claims to each ounce of gold. If you can't physically touch the gold your 'own' then any claim is potentially in the same queue as 120+ others. Gold makes for a good alternative to bonds/cash deposits (paper money), a 67/33 stock/gold can broadly compare to all-stock but with less volatility (will rise less during good stock times, fall less during stock bad times).
At the end of the day, it is those holding physical gold that get to determine how the 120 claims upon each ounce may be settled. Even funds claiming to be backed by physical gold could see that gold vanish under a gold-rush condition.

The US treasury bought 8000 tonnes of gold in 1933. Nowadays that lent to the Fed at a $42.222 rate, so at a market price of $2111 the Fed has 50x leverage, that rises if the dollar falls against gold (gold price rises). In turn the Fed can use that 50x leverage to buy (or sell) 123x leveraged paper gold (at recent levels) ... that can be used to direct the price of gold into alignment with the dollar a.k.a dollar aligned to the price of gold. US debt expansion when drawn using log scale Y axis, as you should for longer time periods, is more a straight line, many charts however are drawn using linear scale Y axis, so US debt expansion is often (falsely) claimed to be a unsustainable exponential - whereas it is, the dollar will over time continue to decline relative to the price of gold as the US target a 2% inflation rate (devaluation of dollars). All of that secures the dollar, that in turn others use as a international trade settlement currency instead of gold. Based on a foundation of retaining a large amount of physical gold, but where there are many claims to each ounce of gold. If you can't physically touch the gold your 'own' then any claim is potentially in the same queue as 120+ others. Gold makes for a good alternative to bonds/cash deposits (paper money), a 67/33 stock/gold can broadly compare to all-stock but with less volatility (will rise less during good stock times, fall less during stock bad times).
At the end of the day, it is those holding physical gold that get to determine how the 120 claims upon each ounce may be settled. Even funds claiming to be backed by physical gold could see that gold vanish under a gold-rush condition.

A dealership may ask/record whether you're buying gold for someone else, even if so you might say no, and then later opt to privately sell that gold for 0% gain/loss on to another shortly thereafter. i.e. end up with gold bought in someone else's name and address/id, along with additional private sale/purchase/transfer records. For self insured/storage security reasons that might be good practice, no record of photo/id/address of where the gold might be being stored, but does leave the purchaser who used their ID to buy the gold potentially exposed to risks. Thinking along the lines of two brothers, one buys the gold using their ID/address, and then passes/sells that gold on to their brother who then stores it at their separate/different address. If HMRC have records of transactions/gold purchases stolen/lost and a thief visits the brother who purchased the gold in their name, opening the safe when a sharp pencil is held up to a loved ones eye would reveal a sale record/note ... no gold, sale proceeds ... spent, just a couple of grand in cash within the safe.
The UK has transitioned to where it cares little for citizens safety, more a case nowadays of buyer beware, the state gives illegal migrants more care/security than the population those illegal migrants mix into even though they may have past criminal records ...etc. Very much a case of having to best secure ones own safety/security. Call the Police and they might be able to book you in to attend in several days time, if at all. Or if they do attend they send out maybe a pair of barely five foot tall WPC's that can do little if confronted with a gang of six foot burly beasts. 

Be mindful that HMRC/state do also record online transactions (CONNECT system), that is being enhanced with AI technology. And also have visibility of the financial transaction/money movement. So not much different to having to show your passport - just they already have a copy of its content/picture.

Both. Dealers have to register with HMRC. Dealers have to take anti money laundering measures ... record name, address, id (passport/driving licence) ...etc. of anyone who buys/sells more than £5K/year with the dealership, even if in smaller amounts several visits/trades ... so commonly dealers always ask for/record that data. i.e. there are multiple rule sets for HMRC/VAT/AML that have to be complied with.
Anti privacy is rife nowadays. Having details of for instance how much/when you bought/accumulated gold, and a photo and your name/address is wide open to being sold on to the black market. It's not even as though that data is secure, the state often loses large amounts of data. The concept is to ultimately have every penny accounted for, for each individual, where money was obtained from and spent, that alongside facial and number plate recognition technology, internet and calls, geolocation etc. enables each inmate in the open prison to be closely monitored, and for micro-fines to be deployed. You crossed a crossing before the green-man - your electronic money account has been fined £50. You've bought too much red meat this week ... fined £100. As part of the drive to that state control all banks have been threatened to report all suspicious transactions, or else be fined, maybe lose their licence - the obvious outcome is that banks report all transactions - as desired by the state.

Paper to gold ratio indicated as being up to 123.16 from around 122.2 https://usdebtclock.org/gold-precious-metals.html a few weeks back. Around 0.8% more, so with around 200,000 worldwide tonnes in total above ground gold = 1600 tonnes (back of napkin figures) additional paper gold having been created out of thin air, which is around the same amount as the 'unknown' big buyers 1500 tonnes purchase that drove the price of gold to spike. Could be a indicator of a pipeline reversion back down to £1600 former (pre 1500 tonnes purchase) price levels. 25th April Option settlement date (downblip) has now arrived. Next down blip may align with subsequent settlement dates https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/metals/precious/gold.calendar.options.html until getting back down to the £1600 level (give or take £/$ FX and/or rise/fall in world geopolitical fear-factor).

Paper to gold ratio indicated as being up to 123.16 from around 122.2 https://usdebtclock.org/gold-precious-metals.html a few weeks back. Around 0.8% more, so with around 200,000 worldwide tonnes in total above ground gold = 1600 tonnes (back of napkin figures) additional paper gold having been created out of thin air, which is around the same amount as the 'unknown' big buyers 1500 tonnes purchase that drove the price of gold to spike. Could be a indicator of a pipeline reversion back down to £1600 former (pre 1500 tonnes purchase) price levels. 25th April Option settlement date (downblip) has now arrived. Next down blip may align with subsequent settlement dates https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/metals/precious/gold.calendar.options.html until getting back down to the £1600 level (give or take £/$ FX and/or rise/fall in world geopolitical fear-factor).