Morgan Dollars: How Many Have Survived the Silver Melting Pot?

[Junior]

Morgan Dollars: How Many Have Survived the Silver Melting Pot?

 

By: Jordan Graveline

07/18/21
 

The following is an experiment used to determine approximately how many Morgan Dollars have survived 100 years after the last Morgan Dollars were minted. Using a computer program, three different sets of data were normalized against one another, creating an approximation of the number of coins destroyed and the number of coins remaining. The computer program utilized various algorithms to compare the data of known certified quantities, against the prices of standard grades of MS63, AU50, XF40, & VF25, against the overall mintages of each year/mint mark. The program was run a total of three times to flag and isolate any discrepancies for manual review.

 

The first data set used comes from the population reports of the third party grading services of PCGS, NGC, ICG, and ANACS. This data set was used to provide a probable base in the number of coins that have survived having been graded and verified by these companies.

 

The second data set used was the average price for particular years/mint marks at the standard grades of MS63, AU50, XF40, & VF25. This data was used to estimate the rarity of a coin based on exponential price increases between grades. The price algorithm would search for rarity of low mintages or low survival rates based on the results of any exponential price increases and flag them.

 

The third and final data set used was the percent change of a particular year/mint mark. To accomplish this, the computer program compared a coin’s original mintage for a particular year/mint mark and the total mintage for that same year across all mint marks vs. the number of certified coins of that same year/mint mark over the total number of certified coins of that same year across all mint marks. This is again using data from the top four third party grading services of PCGS, NGC, ICG, and ANACS.

 

The following chart has been derived from the analysis of the above data in order to estimate how many Morgan Dollars and which years and mint marks have potentially survived. The data used does not take into consideration the different varieties within any given year/mint mark or proof strikes of the Morgan Dollar, but rather only the business strikes intended for circulation.

 

Year/Mint Mark   No Mark - Philadelphia S - San Francisco O - New Orleans CC - Carson City D - Denver	Total Mintage	Approximate Number of Coins Destroyed	Approximate Number of Coins Remaining
1878	10,508,800	9,204,915	1,303,885
1878-S	9,774,000	8,185,840	1,588,160
1878-CC	2,212,000	1,711,804	500,196
1879	14,806,000	13,016,337	1,789,663
1879-S	9,110,000	4,070,899	5,039,101
1879-O	2,887,000	1,318,794	1,568,206
1879-CC	756,000	344,956	411,044
1880	12,600,000	10,546,256	2,053,744
1880-S	8,900,000	4,372,039	4,527,961
1880-O	5,305,000	3,397,317	1,907,683
1880-CC	591,000	182,501	408,499
1881	9,163,000	7,898,396	1,264,604
1881-S	12,760,000	5,362,331	7,397,669
1881-O	5,708,000	3,841,145	1,866,855
1881-CC	296,000	17,938	278,062
1882	11,100,000	9,833,956	1,266,044
1882-S	9,250,000	4,167,377	5,082,623
1882-O	6,090,000	4,567,034	1,522,966
1882-CC	1,133,000	510,948	622,052
1883	12,290,000	8,714,382	3,575,618
1883-S	6,250,000	5,258,136	991,864
1883-O	8,725,000	3,289,077	5,435,923
1883-CC	1,204,000	595,148	608,852
1884	14,070,000	12,168,416	1,901,584
1884-S	3,200,000	2,304,709	895,291
1884-O	9,730,000	4,727,355	5,002,645
1884-CC	1,136,000	546,515	589,485
1885	17,787,000	15,637,230	2,149,770
1885-S	1,497,000	1,075,690	421,310
1885-O	9,185,000	3,746,894	5,438,106
1885-CC	238,000	102,047	135,953
1886	19,963,000	14,711,985	5,251,015
1886-S	750,000	211,379	538,621
1886-O	10,710,000	9,980,457	729,543
1887	20,290,000	14,383,404	5,906,596
1887-S	1,771,000	1,062,971	708,029
1887-O	11,550,000	9,931,205	1,618,795
1888	19,183,000	16,419,891	2,763,109
1888-S	657,000	182,679	474,321
1888-O	12,150,000	10,531,020	1,618,980
1889	21,726,000	12,185,473	9,540,527
1889-S	700,000	231,583	468,417
1889-O	11,875,000	7,886,394	3,988,606
1889-CC	350,000	315,791	34,209
1890	16,802,000	12,961,580	3,840,420
1890-S	8,230,373	5,845,077	2,385,296
1890-O	10,701,000	8,279,552	2,421,448
1890-CC	2,309,041	1,623,163	685,878
1891	8,693,556	6,592,889	2,100,667
1891-S	5,296,000	3,088,967	2,207,033
1891-O	7,954,529	6,240,453	1,714,076
1891-CC	1,618,000	947,283	670,717
1892	1,036,000	261,060	774,940
1892-S	1,200,000	847,797	352,203
1892-O	2,744,000	1,606,755	1,137,245
1892-CC	1,352,000	1,111,202	240,798
1893	378,000	55,682	322,318
1893-S	100,000	70,809	29,191
1893-O	300,000	88,598	211,402
1893-CC	677,000	628,777	48,223
1894	110,000	44,976	65,024
1894-S	1,260,000	682,693	577,307
1894-O	1,723,000	1,138,762	584,238
1895-S	400,000	342,459	57,541
1895-O	450,000	268,489	181,511
1896	9,976,000	3,194,483	6,781,517
1896-S	5,000,000	4,243,528	756,472
1896-O	4,900,000	3,523,473	1,376,527
1897	2,822,000	1,406,207	1,415,793
1897-S	5,825,000	4,040,129	1,784,871
1897-O	4,004,000	2,262,022	1,741,978
1898	5,884,000	4,236,033	1,647,967
1898-S	4,102,000	3,231,534	870,466
1898-O	4,440,000	1,988,803	2,451,197
1899	330,000	53,205	276,795
1899-S	2,562,000	1,528,007	1,033,993
1899-O	12,290,000	8,072,414	4,217,586
1900	8,830,000	5,620,780	3,209,220
1900-S	3,540,000	2,470,112	1,069,888
1900-O	12,590,000	7,902,297	4,687,703
1901	6,962,000	6,178,362	783,638
1901-S	2,284,000	1,407,651	876,349
1901-O	13,320,000	9,176,294	4,143,706
1902	7,994,000	6,763,568	1,230,432
1902-S	1,530,000	1,041,300	488,700
1902-O	8,636,000	3,735,298	4,900,702
1903	4,652,000	2,825,769	1,826,231
1903-S	1,241,000	933,662	307,338
1903-O	4,450,000	4,162,487	287,513
1904	2,788,000	1,859,225	928,775
1904-S	2,304,000	1,840,819	463,181
1904-O	3,720,000	1,858,154	1,861,846
1921	44,690,000	24,809,062	19,880,938
1921-S	21,695,000	15,836,713	5,858,287
1921-D	20,345,000	13,988,554	6,356,446
Total	656,977,299	451,667,582	205,309,717

Data for original mintages sourced from: https://morgandollars.net/morgan-dollar-mintage/
 

 

***DISCLAIMER***

 

It cannot be known for certain which particular years and mint marks have escaped the melting pot and in what quantities. As the history of the Morgan Dollar goes, no records were ever kept of which Morgan Dollars were turned into silver bullion for Great Britain in 1918 or how many dollars were melted down in the great silver run of 1979-1980. This experiment is intended to show the normalization of three different types of data in order to give the best approximation of which Morgans remain and in what quantities.

 

***END OF DISCLAIMER***

 

While the quantities of the various Morgan Dollars will always be up for debate, the one thing that remains consistent is the dollars with low mintages are always in demand. Even if a high percentage of low mintage coins have escaped the melting pots of time, the majority of that mintage could have been placed into circulation. In considering this information, a high survival rate for a low mintage coin can still drive up the rarity of the coin in uncirculated conditions.

 

Even with 100 years having passed since the last Morgans were struck, a healthy stock still exists overall. Some years/mint marks remain unobtainable for most collectors, but a person could put together a collection of Morgans with one from each year without breaking the bank. Of the nearly 657 million coins that were struck, a possible 205 million coins still exist today. Based on the analysis of the data, the top rarest coins by surviving mintage only (rounded to the nearest 1,000) are as follows:

 

1. 1893-S            ~29,000
2. 1889-CC         ~34,000
3. 1893-CC         ~48,000
4. 1895-S            ~58,000
5. 1894                ~65,000
6. 1885-CC         ~136,000
7. 1895-O            ~182,000
8. 1893-O            ~211,000
9. 1892-CC         ~241,000
10. 1899                ~277,000
11. 1881-CC          ~278,000
12. 1903-O            ~288,000
13. 1903-S             ~307,000
14. 1893                ~322,000
15. 1892-S             ~352,000

Edited July 18, 2021 by Junior
Easier to access if users do not have Microsoft Word

[dicker]

Interesting article thank you!

Best

Dicker

[Dan12345]

Hi there 

I have quite a few of these how do I tell what state they are from as to me (a newbie) they all look the same 

Thanks

 

 

 

 

 

[dicker]

Hi Dan

I always suggest getting “Morgan Silver Dollars” by Q David Bowers. 

A wealth of information within this book.

When you mention state, I think you mean Mint.  This is signified by a mint mark O / S / CC etc or lack thereof underneath the Eagle just above the D and O of DOLLAR.

Just be careful there are a *great deal* of counterfeits out there especially on eBay.  Most are poor copies but there are some exceptional counterfeits out there. 

Best

Dicker

[sovereignsteve]

42 minutes ago, dicker said:

I always suggest getting “Morgan Silver Dollars” by Q David Bowers.

Excellent advice. In fact this publication does give estimated numbers of survivors in various grades. It would be instructive to compare your figures with the ones given in this book @Junior

edit. Just remembered that the numbers given in the Red Book only relate to estimates of those in mint state (MS60 and above). Therefore a good comparison would be for a year with a high proportion of high grades, maybe one of the years that were paid out in the 1962 Treasury release.

Edited July 28, 2021 by sovereignsteve

[sovereignsteve]

The 1903-O coin was very rare before the 1962 payout, when a large number of mint state coins were released, sending prices plummeting.

@Junior 's estimates suggest that 287,000 coins of this year and mint survive whereas the Red Book estimates that 171,000 - 307,000 coins exist in mint state. So pretty good agreement then😊

[Dan12345]

Thanks for the info guys that's a great help.

Ive got CC, s, and some o and some coins with out any think there 

[dicker]

Good stuff. If you are looking to buy more Morgan’s, particularly graded ones, it might be worth looking at US dealers and having them imported and paying the tax.

The stock of Morgans in the U.K. is relatively small whereas US dealers have  very extensive stock of NGC / PCGS coins.

I don’t have a relationship the following shop but the prices vs grades show the disparity of UK pricing and supply vs US.
 

http://portsmouthcoinshop.com/product-category/large-dollar/

Best

Dicker

 

[Junior]

Hey Guys,

Thank you so much for reading my article/the results of my experiment. I'm glad this post wasn't just my own curiosity written down and that others have seen this perhaps seeking out answers of their own. 

To answer, @sovereignsteve I have heard of “Morgan Silver Dollars” by Q David Bowers, but I have never read his work aside from a footnote quote from others. I should very much like to get a copy and see what an expert has to say on the various mintages remaining. The experiment I ran was 90% computer generated results using algorithms to figure out possible remaining quantities. The only manual information that needed to be gathered was the population reports from the third party graders and any adjustments in the algorithms to assist in the explanation of a high mintage coin with a seemingly low survival rate. Aside from that, the computers did all the testing.

Anyway, thanks for your interest and for reading my post.

- Junior

[dicker]

Q David Bowers is a prolific authorcovering mostly coins but also other niche areas.  I suspect having a lot of his books that he enjoys creating taxonomies of coins, PM’s, and banknotes   

His work on the “Red Book” series are the best known books by his hand and cover key areas of US coin collecting. The Redbook series is excellent and If you buy any US coinage it’s almost essential.

Look at second hand book stores online for his excellent previously published works.

Best

Dicker

 

 

[Junior]

As per the advice given, I have ordered the book A Guide Book of Morgan Silver Dollars, 6th Edition by Q. David Bowers and I am anxiously awaiting it's arrival in 1-2 weeks. I had a glance over on the beginning of the book and it looks like I will definitely find a wealth of information in it. Thanks for the advice!