Thoughts On Panda's + question

[CurryMuncher69]

I was amazed on how the panda's have such a high premium, with a high mintage for e.g the 2012 panda's have a mintage of 8 million, and It must be a bigger number for the 2013, and even bigger for the 2014 I would imagine.

I read somewhere that, even though panda's have a high mintage and designs change every year, a lot of the coins stay in china, and are sold to the Chinese investors/public. So lets say 8 million are minted, only 1 million is shipped worldwide, is this true, or something similar along those lines? 

Why aren't the Canadian Falcon coins flying off the shelf, as its a new design, mintage of 1 million e.t.c it has all the characteristics of a panda, and costs much less.



What are your general thoughts on Panda's and Stacking them as main bullion/investment along side Britannia's  

[DavePanda]

Hi CM I have just joined this forum after seeing your question, a little about me first, I have been learning about then collecting Pandas for quiet a long time, my first advice regarding these coins if you are planning to collect years prior to 2010 is do exactly that, learn then buy! There are some great forums out there http://china-mint.info/forum/ amongst others.

 

If however your idea is to go with just this year and subsequent years then I would say look upon future releases (also those 2011,2013) as similar to the Kookaburra, i.e top quality coin with a collector premium which has inbuilt resistance to a dropping spot price, the 2012 is a bit of an anomoly in that it had a huge mintage number 8 million but there does not seem to be that many on the second hand market, potentially the final mintage was lower, hence the premium on this coin.

There is an argument that 8 Million is still a small mintage compared with the ASE and Maple, taking into account the amount of Chinese people there are, the earlier Pandas pre 2010 have a much lower mintage level and therefore have a greater premium attached.

 

HOWEVER the concern with Pandas is the obvious one, fakes, this is where the studying comes in, you have to do this otherwise you will get stung, I have seen for example multiple fakes of the 2000 Panda sell for hundreds of pounds, the fake is worthless!

 

I am willing to advise people if they are concerned re fakes, obviously with no guarantee, via PM, since I would not accuse people on a public forum of selling fakes, some people have purchased these fakes in good faith and sell them on without knowing they are fakes!

 

In a nutshell, by all means purchase the newer coins from dealers and private individuals that can be trusted, older coins do your reasearch..a LOT of it! You will then be scratching the surface of this fasinating hobby.

Regards

Dave

[morezone]

Pandas have great potential.  

 

As mentioned, 8 million is a drop in the ocean when compared to a population of billion+.  As the % of China's population increase in wealth, there will be more demand for bullion coins based on the Panda.  The mintage is increasing year on year but the demand for previous years will always be growing and will always do so as long as the current mintage increases.

 

The Panda is a worldwide recognised symbol/animal so there are many collectors.  Not just in bullion but all things Panda.  I believe the US has a great love of Pandas.

 

My understanding is that there are at least 2 mints making Pandas and they do vary slightly.  Mainly the font type/size which means even if there are 8 million, to a collector it is 2 x 4 million (or whatever the split).  I'm not too sure if the variation still exists in the newer dates.

 

Even with the premiums, I wouldn't hesitate to stack.  I myself hope to hold 200+ before the 2015 release.

[CurryMuncher69]

Welcome to the forum Dave!!!, could do with a person on this forum who specializes in Chinese Panda's . 

As Much As I would love to buy other panda coins, the premium attached to them seems to much for me, I am only investing in silver, and going for the high premium stuff. Once spot goes back up to around 15GBP per oz I will then only buy the maples, ASE, Philharmonic e.t.c  

So in a nutshell, if spot stays under 15, I will just keep on buying the cheapest panda's which is obviously the latest year 2014. I know about the fakes, and I know how good the Chinese are at doing them!! however the place of purchase is extremely reliable and only gets them from the mint directly so there is no worry there. 

I just came to realise that how many Chinese people are there.., who invest in precious metals,(so a video on youtube on how Chinese people invested in precious metals especially gold) , I cannot seem to find any 2013 panda's for less then 25 quid. I am looking to get sheets my friend. 

So could you sum up very quickly the reason why panda's have such a high premium, I only know of two reasons.
Changing Designs early ,

Hard to get a hold of a large quantity after they have stopped being minted. 

[CurryMuncher69]

Pandas have great potential.  

 

As mentioned, 8 million is a drop in the ocean when compared to a population of billion+.  As the % of China's population increase in wealth, there will be more demand for bullion coins based on the Panda.  The mintage is increasing year on year but the demand for previous years will always be growing and will always do so as long as the current mintage increases.

 

The Panda is a worldwide recognised symbol/animal so there are many collectors.  Not just in bullion but all things Panda.  I believe the US has a great love of Pandas.

 

My understanding is that there are at least 2 mints making Pandas and they do vary slightly.  Mainly the font type/size which means even if there are 8 million, to a collector it is 2 x 4 million (or whatever the split).  I'm not too sure if the variation still exists in the newer dates.

 

Even with the premiums, I wouldn't hesitate to stack.  I myself hope to hold 200+ before the 2015 release.

I would love a monster box at these prices why not !! 

[morezone]

I would love a monster box at these prices why not !! 

If you can afford to, you should do along with Britannias.

I will also be gambling on the UK Lunar Horse.

Then pad out the rest with the cheap stuff.

[CurryMuncher69]

So what you going to do with the panda's you have. You also said that you wanted 200+ by the end of the year

[morezone]

In my personal collection I only have 3. 2013, 2014 and 2014 coloured.

In my investment stack I have 40 2014s. I will hold onto them for at least 2 years and if I can afford to, even longer if the premium continues to rise year on year. Ideally offload maybe 20 a year to release capital for new investments.

[Keithoil]

I too love the China Panda coin

 

I am holding 54 at the moment from 1997 to 2014.

 

Lovely coin.

[morezone]

I too love the China Panda coin

I am holding 54 at the moment from 1997 to 2014.

Lovely coin.

Graded?

[Keithoil]

I only have 3 graded coins but I am working on that, hope to collect around 10-15 or so by year end.

[Cointreau]

I got 54 of the panda 2013 coins. Winning design.

[ChrisSilver]

I got 54 of the panda 2013 coins. Winning design.

Yea I like the 2013 a lot. I am disappointed I only have 1. I look at the 2013 and think it's a very nice coin. But the 2014, not that much love for it.

[DavePanda]

Welcome to the forum Dave!!!, could do with a person on this forum who specializes in Chinese Panda's . 

As Much As I would love to buy other panda coins, the premium attached to them seems to much for me, I am only investing in silver, and going for the high premium stuff. Once spot goes back up to around 15GBP per oz I will then only buy the maples, ASE, Philharmonic e.t.c  

So in a nutshell, if spot stays under 15, I will just keep on buying the cheapest panda's which is obviously the latest year 2014. I know about the fakes, and I know how good the Chinese are at doing them!! however the place of purchase is extremely reliable and only gets them from the mint directly so there is no worry there. 

I just came to realise that how many Chinese people are there.., who invest in precious metals,(so a video on youtube on how Chinese people invested in precious metals especially gold) , I cannot seem to find any 2013 panda's for less then 25 quid. I am looking to get sheets my friend. 

So could you sum up very quickly the reason why panda's have such a high premium, I only know of two reasons.

Changing Designs early ,

Hard to get a hold of a large quantity after they have stopped being minted. 

Sorry for the delay CM

 

I think you have mostly pointed out some of the more important points.. In a nutshell, supply and demand,  some of the 1990s Pandas have low mintages, lots below 40000, earlier 2000s less than 100000,  now that the mintage figures for the new coins are up to 8 Million ( I am talking the 1oz Silver Panda here) you can see that it only takes a small percentage of these people going forward to want to collect the older coins and you have a shortfall in the market, dont forget there are new people every year that join in the fun of collecting coins, with a design that changes every year increasing the collectability and a richer nation now allowed and encouraged to buy PMs and you have a recipe for potential price rises on Numismatic value alone, irrespective of any spot price movements up or down.

 

All of course IMHO...

 

Regards

Dave

[morezone]

Pandas coming in at £16 and a few pence.  I don't mind if I do.