Silver price 2011

[Bigmarc]

Hi all.

A quick question to the Jedi's of the silver world.

When silver had the big jump in 2011 to 50 dollars, were there and tell tale signs that it was going to happen? Why did it happen? Looking at the charts it had a sharp jump, then a gradual fall. Did you learn any lessons from that period? 

Cheers all

[Pete]

Absolutely - Newton's law that what goes up must come down.
This was an interesting time to see silver rocket and there was no upper limit in sight at the time.
The usual BS coming out from the USA mainly, on Youtube, Kitco etc. was 'fill your boots', "back up the truck" as silver is "heading to da' moon" rings a bell.
Any Kookaburra listed on eBay at a fixed price would sell instantly.
The lesson learned is (a) never believe a word coming out of the mouth of an "expert" and (b) don't follow the herd all the time.
NO_ONE CAN PREDICT THE FUTURE PRICES OF PMS.

[Bigmarc]

Thanks, markets definitely go in cycles and it's good to hear from those who experienced the last peak. 

Experience over experts (usually bullion dealers) any day.

[sixgun]

At the time (2010 - 2011) i was not dealing in physical - it was all in the paper markets. There was massive QE going on after the financial crash. The markets saw a fall in the purchasing power of fiat and so switched into hard assets.

As the silver price exploded upwards i heard a lot of commentary in the financial media saying silver was in a bubble.  i was saying it was bubble territory in the 20's b/c it was going up too fast.  
The fall in price was triggered by the drive by shooting when billions of ounces of short sold paper silver were dumped. If you found yourself on the wrong side of that collapse you wouldn't have called it a slow decline. 

The market has changed since then. Gradually the physical market is asserting itself. The ability to smash price with invented paper shorts is disappearing. We used to see smashes and there was no recovery. Now a recovery happens quite a bit quicker. Then savvy investors pile in to pick up the bargains - except it is harder and harder to pick those up.

The lesson is get hold of physical silver early. Keep cost averaging in. Some people have been doing that since late 2014 onwards, which happens to be when i started picking up my physical stack. The lesson is, if you believe silver is a vital commodity and real money - that it is in deficit and a day of reckoning will eventually come - then you should be stacking and you should have been stacking for several years now. i haven't looked but i expect every piece of my little collection is in profit. 

We can predict the price of precious metals - they will go up and they will go up a lot more than many of the members here realise. It is as plain as night follows day to me. The actual timing i don't know but that doesn't matter if you just keep adding to and then adding to. Don't get caught up in any fads - go for basic weight and decent coins/bars. i have been saying this with silver since i joined and some people have mocked. Some people have cried in their beer that silver has been a poor investment. That the price has fallen - i have said good - buy some more and cost average down. It is not a matter of IF, it is simply a matter of WHEN. It will happen and if you haven't been adding to it will be too late by the time you realise and get your act together. 

Silver mine production is falling - industrial use is remaining steady and new uses are being found - investment demands is seriously picking up since the March 2020 EFP blow up - as the visible inventories decline and demand far exceeds new supply (which is now happening), the price will rise and probably explode up. You will see $50 - $100 - pick a number. It is not a matter of IF, it is simply a matter of WHEN.

#silversqueeze - keep stacking.

[sixgun]

[Bigmarc]

Thanks sixgun.

I have been VERY slowly collecting over the years, personally I think I have accumulated a fair weight (although less than some guys do in a week on here) and I am looking at a exit strategy. The problem i am seeing with a spike like that is if I was doing the private sales route the market would be flooded and I would miss the boat. I would very much like to convert the majority of it into gold.

I've never really done cost averaging, I have a record of every sale I have purchased (thanks to the forum). I will look into this in more depth.

It is very difficult not to get caught up in the fads when you're willing it to do well. My silver head is saying the mines are short and everyone is buying physical and there will be a short spike similar to last time. Unfortunately I'm not convinced on the silver squeeze. I work in large scale manufacturing and we have been running at 1/3 capacity for over a year now. I assume this is happening across the board. People have been buying less for a year now. I feel the silver squeeze may have just filled in the void.

Ultimately, silver and gold is real money, not fiat, I am in it for the long haul and we have to try and play the best hand we have.

 

Thanks again

[Robda1986]

6 minutes ago, Bigmarc said:

Thanks sixgun.

I have been VERY slowly collecting over the years, personally I think I have accumulated a fair weight (although less than some guys do in a week on here) and I am looking at a exit strategy. The problem i am seeing with a spike like that is if I was doing the private sales route the market would be flooded and I would miss the boat. I would very much like to convert the majority of it into gold.

I've never really done cost averaging, I have a record of every sale I have purchased (thanks to the forum). I will look into this in more depth.

It is very difficult not to get caught up in the fads when you're willing it to do well. My silver head is saying the mines are short and everyone is buying physical and there will be a short spike similar to last time. Unfortunately I'm not convinced on the silver squeeze. I work in large scale manufacturing and we have been running at 1/3 capacity for over a year now. I assume this is happening across the board. People have been buying less for a year now. I feel the silver squeeze may have just filled in the void.

Ultimately, silver and gold is real money, not fiat, I am in it for the long haul and we have to try and play the best hand we have.

 

Thanks again

It might take you a while but work out your total spent in silver devided by your oz and you'll have your cost average 

[dicker]

Good article here:

 

https://aheadoftheherd.com/could-silver-break-out-like-it-did-in-2011/

[Bigmarc]

Yes, good article, cheers.