Where's Silver Heading ?

[Pete]

The latest chart looks encouraging so wonder what is driving the price rises.
Not getting overly excited though, remembering 2011, but at last heading in the right direction.

 

 

 

 

[ilovesilverireallydo]

Its the drop in Pound that is driving UK prices. Have a look at the dollar chart (PMs are seen in dollars. 

[goldmember44]

I can tell you what is behind the rise today, is the weak pound sterling... due to Boris Johnson digging in over a no-deal Brexit. This is weakening the pound in anticipation of what will happen in October. In dollar value there hasn't been much of a rise today. But of course, over the last week or so other factors have contributed to the rise in silver (and gold) prices too. Actually several factors. My best guess is that precious metal prices will continue to rise during the rest of the year. But nobody knows for sure.

[KDave]

https://www.silver-phoenix500.com/article/silver-price-forecast-coming-surge-will-fail

Long term view - I personally like this opinion (Chris A. article) as it fits my expectation, plus it fits what I see in the simplistic interpretation of the all time charts, but looking for evidence/opinion that fits your expectation is always indulgent rather than diligent.

Article summary - gold to silver ratio expansion during this gold 'breakout' suggests the move is not sustainable. Regardless there will still very likely be a surge in silver in the next few months to follow gold, which is worth a punt on. After that, sell the punt, or expect to keep holding through the 2020's.

I have not paid enough attention this time to the levels in regards to whether this is a bull or not but I don't think we are there, in 2016-17 I was not convinced by that surge either because key level did not break, this is still the case now with silver at least, not sure about gold. Comparing the 1980's highs with the 2011 highs, the silver chart patterns are so similar, decades of grind incoming? Did gold break out in USD or not? 

[vand]

On 29/07/2019 at 16:47, KDave said:

https://www.silver-phoenix500.com/article/silver-price-forecast-coming-surge-will-fail

Long term view - I personally like this opinion (Chris A. article) as it fits my expectation, plus it fits what I see in the simplistic interpretation of the all time charts, but looking for evidence/opinion that fits your expectation is always indulgent rather than diligent.

Article summary - gold to silver ratio expansion during this gold 'breakout' suggests the move is not sustainable. Regardless there will still very likely be a surge in silver in the next few months to follow gold, which is worth a punt on. After that, sell the punt, or expect to keep holding through the 2020's.

I have not paid enough attention this time to the levels in regards to whether this is a bull or not but I don't think we are there, in 2016-17 I was not convinced by that surge either because key level did not break, this is still the case now with silver at least, not sure about gold. Comparing the 1980's highs with the 2011 highs, the silver chart patterns are so similar, decades of grind incoming? Did gold break out in USD or not? 

He's very long term bullish on gold but bearish on silver in the same timeframe, which is a bizarre view to hold.

Silver lags. Always has done, always will. We have seen some catch-up in the last few weeks. 

His doubling-then-crash scenario may play out but if that happens it will likely be a liquidity event similar to 2008 in part of a larger cycle..silver has always been a highly volatile play.

I do not know what the price will do in the short term. That is a mug's game, and if you are able to correctly predict it with any degree of ongoing success then you have a talent that negates the need to hold any silver in the first place! I am however highly confident that the ongoing policies that continue to devalue all paper currencies will only get stronger and stronger.

[STONE]

I wouldnt get to excited yet. Im guessing TPTB just let the price come up a few bucks so the mines dont go out of buisness and ruin their plans...

[KDave]

@vand That reflects my thoughts somewhat, a 2008 event would lead to what the charts are predicting (or rather, could explain the driver behind Chris A. interpretation should it come to pass). We are due a recession and there is plenty of upset on the horizon that can be blamed for one, not least the fact we are in the longest period in history without one. 

I don't think he is very bullish on gold however, his view is the bull has not arrived and is due some point in the 2020's, I agree with that view but it makes no difference but for how much gold I will have accumulated when it actually starts. Tomorrow would be fine. Ten years from now, better still. 

I agree that these moves are about currency. I don't think it's about gold. Oil and it's predicted fall to 40 a barrel does not support sustained higher gold, gold to oil is showing over value in gold. Silver will confirm this if the coming surge is not sustained, we will know then where this is going, agreed no one knows. Currency devaluation outside the USD is not a gold bull market, it's a currency bear against USD, I believe there is a difference, I think Sterling should be viewed against USD first gold second. When gold in USD reaches all time highs then take note, we have a long way to go until then, many years perhaps, which fits the article. This is all about currency. That's my uneducated reflection on it for what it's worth.