silversky

Looks like a slightly weak close to me coming up. Maybe another little drop is inbound next week

Perhaps a current occupier thread?

I'm assuming that you're not "western" and that you don't subscribe to quotes "western values". Which values do you subscribe to out of interest? Other than gold of course which we're all keeping a keen eye on in this thread of course.

In the above shtf example, gold is only useful for your children. It's for long after "the disaster", when new governance and monetary accounting starts to establish again. It time travels wealth. Land is important, but land is riskier under certain circumstances. It's easier to confiscate because it's not exactly mobile. Gold on the other hand can easily be hidden in amounts that denominate serious future wealth, with the intention of one day recovering it for your children. We keep finding little stashes from different eras where that game has been played. Just imagine how many anonymous stories have gone untold, of familial gold recovered by children, and quietly used to buy land or influence. Gold is the ultimate insurance policy. Gold's other purpose is to keep the accounting of all fiat honest. By holding in Gold, one is no longer dragged backwards through fiat devaluation, but the same can be said of many limited quantity resources such as land. You don't get rich in gold, society just gets poorer around you. Gold bounced off the big $2000 mark, £1582 double bottom from the 12th. Is the dip over? Or is a real £100 dip to come? I'm pretty neutral on it at the moment.

It's like American football. Little moves forwards and backwards. Pretty dull, but people enjoy drinking beers and discussing those few yards each way, imagining that any moment an impressive break for the the other end of the pitch is about to happen. And just like precious metals, the game takes ages....

I'm going to do a Gordon Brown and announce that I'm going to sell a bit of gold in a few days... that should drop the price nicely for all you dip buyers...

According to trading view, gold is a strong buy right now.

Why did they stop? Edit: just getting in some off topic chat while we're talking about the weather before the market reopens

Does gold trading come back online at 23:00? I assume that the US desk is still closed today.

Whilst I understand the cynicism re US foreign policy and the methods used to get American people on side, in reality, there are some very nasty people in the world and not just in the western deep state. One look at the Houthi flag says all you need to know. "God is the greatest, Death to America, Death to Israel, Curse the Jews, Victory to islam". They're an unashamedly genocidal mob, who've gotten way too big for their boots. The west has been busy ignoring them for years, but play silly games, win silly prizes. Ask the Yemenis outside Houthi controlled areas what they think of them? They're currently praying for them to be bombed into oblivion by the great Satan. Edit: any big moves in gold due to conflict, are only going to come if Iran gets involved. So far that looks unlikely, so I don't think this is having any impact at all on the gold price.

Yeah there might be a bit of divergence. Retail sales as well on the 19th. Forecast to be a contraction, but GDP came in slightly better last week so who knows. I think the war issue is going to come to nothing. It's going to be a little tit for tat type event, slowly degrading the rock bangers ability to hit shipping in the red sea. Not a big driver of gold price in my opinion.

Nothing major in USA, building permits and the like. UK has unemployment and inflation numbers on 16th / 17th

Thoughts on tonight's open? Will we see gold continue back up? Or is it going to turn further down? My bet is that this week will be made up of smaller movements and some consolidation around this level, international events aside.

Now where would be the fun in that? It's way better to force them to write and threaten millions of households every month. It hastens their demise. And it also gives them less idea who the weaker targets are. By not declaring, I'm feel that I'm doing my bit for society, for the vulnerable elderly who get pressured into saying something that the machine can use to prosecute them wrongly. The goons prey on people who get nervous or confused, stitching up those who don't know how to shut them down properly. It's a disgrace in the modern world, to have such organised thuggery stalking our streets with the blessing of parliament. It was about five years ago that I got fed up with all the threatening letters, and I actually did contact them to officially let them know that I don't require a TV licence. But within only 3 months, they just started up with their threatening letter campaign again. That really annoyed me. Forcing people to declare innocence is wrong, but then still continuing to harass them is taking the biscuit. It seems that I am not alone with this either, there are numerous others online reporting the same thing happening to them. By filling in their declaration, I actually entered into a form of contract, but by failing to keep their end of the contract, they have breached it and released me from any future "implied" obligation to notify them. Nothing further is required of me, and I have therefore switched tactic. I'm now hoping for a goon to darken my door, so that I can record his or her name, and tell the goon that by giving me his or her name, they're now personally the official agent of an organisation which is conducting a harassment campaign against me via mail and in person. I will then ask the goon to cease and desist, and declare that if they continue to contact me either in writing or in person, they will be entering into my contract at £150 per hour, charged a minimum of 1 hour for each and every incidence of correspondence. I will assure said goon, that I fully intend to pursue any further attempts to harass or extort me, through the post or in person, and that I will also be seeking damages for distress. Let's see how that pans out. If a goon is foolish enough to waste his or her time returning with a warrant, we'll play the "signed by a magistrate" and requiring affidavits game. Any accompanying police will be asked to confirm that they are NOT there to assist an illegal entry, and that they are NOT legal experts either. They will politely be asked to confirm that their role is to observe a civil dispute, and to ensure that no breach of the peace occurs by either party... I will refuse a digital version o f a warrant on an ipad, and insist on a physical copy for myself. I will make sure that only a real warrant will gain access to my property, and they can then enjoy finding no physical equipment inside which can receive live broadcast Television channels. If so inclined, they can petition my ISP to check that my IP address has never once opened the bbc iplayer app online, although I will formally notify the ISP that I do not consent to my data being released to authorities unless requested in connection with a serious criminal case which this is not. I will film the entire interaction and use it in court as evidence of harassment which it most certainly is. If you receive the letters on a regular basis, you will know how unpleasant some of them are. Sometimes even I, with my full understanding of the legal situation, and my complete compliance with the law, am made to feel a short instinctive pang of anxiety at the official sounding threats. The whole game is outrageous ad it's long past time that this gang of criminals are held to account. I've been waiting five years now for them to show up. Please can it be my turn soon.

Who's Gold Nostradamus? Is he like Goldfinger?

I call bs on that. It sounds like one of those apocryphal stories because it has never been the case that you can record live tv without a licence. Never! But who wants to anyway? It's all rubbish. I haven't had a licence for years, and I get their threats and harassment letters every month. I'm still waiting for a goon to knock on my door to have it closed in his face. I've been looking forward to that, and I'd be happy if they came with a warrant. I'm doing nothing illegal, so I would prevaricate and delay them, causing as much headache as possible for the tyrants... And in the end send them packing with as much shame as possible on camera. But that's just going to have to be one of those little treats which comes when you least expect it.

Gold could go down. Buy the rumour, sell the news etc... These cartoon villains are hardly going to cause world war three, and their flag is absolutely hilarious. This type of military action is exactly the kind which America can actually win easily. Get the popcorn out, and enjoy the show. Oh, and by the way, the flag reads, "God is greatest, Death to America, Death to Israel, Curse the Jews, Victory to Islam". What a bunch of clowns

The question can be posed slightly differently. What percentage of total planetary wealth / resources is it right or acceptable for one person to control? <0.000,000,001%? 0.000,001%? 0.001%? 1%? 99.999%? And is it desirable for there to be a theoretical moral limit to such control? I would say yes. But my answer is based on the understanding that the question is really about power, specifically unelected power. Fiat contains the power to control others, without the ability of those others to choose who rules them. Humans only ever accept being ruled for three reasons. 1) Protection from outside their own group's common border. 2) Protection of individual property rights. And 3) enslavement which leads to an uneasy and temporary peace. As the proportion of slaves in the modern world rises each year, the chances of a massive war aka a French revolution 2.0 grows.

That's like an ant shaking it's fist at an elephant. It'll only matter if Iran gets properly involved, and that's looking less likely each and every day. They have their own internal problems brewing badly, and they're struggling to keep a lid on things domestically. But if they do get involved, and the axis of Russia and China decide to stand up and support them, then we would certainly see some serious gold movement. But the Houthis are overplaying their hand somewhat. When the USA plus likely partners UK and Saudi finally do get the green light, it'll be the kind of bombing campaign that America knows how to fight well. The kind that chucks taxpayer money into the arms manufacturers and boosts the American economy. I doubt it'll move gold that much.

Back on topic from the anti Israel politics... gold now exceeded the close preceding the massive spike in dollar terms. GBP not far behind with only £6 to go. A close above the Friday close at the end of November would be very bullish. A rejection here might spell the end of this little rally though.

Not far off an all time high close in the states. Perhaps the Americans will push it up above that into the close. Bit to go in GBP still.

Here is a good interview on the situation in the Red sea, along with some of the possible implications. Looks like there might be some attempt to combat the Houthis militarily, but realistically there would need to be a massive campaign if it were to be successful in reducing their capability. So far there doesn't appear to be much in the way of economic fallout, but as we know, everything in shipping is delayed, so by the time people take notice in January, there will already be significant delays in the pipeline. The Panama canal is currently operating at reduced capacity due to low water levels in the lakes the last few years, so some traffic which could go the other way around the world will definitely not be able to. Where this leaves the precious metals is anyone's guess. Another war could be beneficial for gold as the risk of regional conflict starts to rise again, The fallout from economic damage and energy inflation could also trigger a rush to safe havens, although gold price has been trading inverse to oil of late. Delivery shortages might initially raise the price of commodities such as Silver, before dropping it as interest rates and economic pressures start to reduce demand for goods. Lots of variables to consider, but I don't think the West can really afford to let this drag on for the long term.

It looks like the Red sea crisis is going to have a major impact on the world economy. Oil and freight is drying up through the Suez, as more and more companies rule out using it. Only Russian tankers are still transiting without being attacked, but even they may not be safe... If this ended tomorrow, there would still be a large impact felt as the delays and costs arrive down the supply chain. If we recall, evergreen closed the Suez for only six days, and that had a huge impact. This crisis is going to create a way bigger drama as global trade is forced into a 14 day 3500 mile detour. The cost of delays will be enormous, along with the cost of extra fuel to move things the long way. Positioning jet fuel will also cause additional challenges, and costs to air freight will likely rise too. A rise in inflation must surely be inbound? Rising inflation means rising rates to combat it again, with a consequent impact on gold prices. Hard to say what will happen to gold, but I can see silver falling as concerns grow for the world economy. Oil supply to those nations which have rejected Russian oil will likely tighten, and I imagine that UK energy prices are going to rise. This probably means that the UK pound will come under pressure, with a consequent rise in Gold in GBP terms. Most shipping these days is flagged under flags of convenience, which means of course that it is not afforded protection at sea by major powers. But if the world economy starts to falter because of the red sea blockade, perhaps military intervention will become a priority for a number of players not least the Egyptians. Interesting times.

Egypt will be losing $30 million a day while this goes on. That's somewhere near 3-4 % of gdp. They can't sustain such a loss for long, but they cant go against Hamas/Muslim brotherhood too openly or there will be a violent uprising in the Sinai. Only when Israel has terminated Hamas, will Egypt likely trade a deal on the border crossing with Gaza, for US support in going after the Houthis in Yemen. It's a real mess that's brewing, with the potential to wreak havoc on global economics. I'm ambivalent on the likely effect on gold, but recognise the potential for some really big moves either way. Iran has been scheming hard for this day, so it would be foolish not to consider that they've already gamed most of the responses. Is Hezbollah next?

With Suez effectively closed (red sea missile attacks on commercial shipping has caused BP and others to suspended shipping in the red sea)... It's a near certainly that there's a delayed economic shockwave inbound. Will this type of economic shock be beneficial for the price of gold? And will the Egyptians eventually be tempted to go to war with Yemen to protect their income from Suez? History teaches that shipping attacks don't usually result in big international players going to war, but a local player losing substantial national income, may well be more inclined.